I now have zero credibility after flaunting my support for General A Rod pre-Derby, but just wanted to see if there is anybody out there that has Bayern on their radar? I don\'t believe his Derby Trial effort was as marginal as it looked. He drew the rail and was committed to the lead by Rosie while being pressured by the Margolis runner(name escapes me) that won the race via DQ.
I don\'t believe the rail was kind on opening night and was definitely not good on the following Tuesday. It was probably not worthy of the \"dead rail\" distinction, but I think it is on the table that a slower rail kept Bayern from giving his best effort. Perhaps that effort gets him fitter for the next challenge.
I was definitely surprised that Baffert is sending him to the Preakness off of that effort. Maybe the horse is doing well?
There was a dead rail opening night at CD.
\"Maybe the horse is doing well?\"
...worked 5f in 58+ at CD on Monday!
there are some positives here. last was better than it looks. gets Stevens back. style fits the course (usually). no worse than last year\'s winner while his foes probably are. everybody loves Social Inclusion.
In the Derby Trial, Bayern was clearly well off the rail in the chute and then (judging from the pan shot alone) kept off it thereafter. He was in about the 2-path turning for home. The chart says he disputed the pace from off the inside.
Bit-- It wasn\'t just the very inside that was dead, it was a couple of paths, and the horse doesn\'t have to be there the whole race for us to mark it.
Baffert said in a radio interview that the track opening day was very deep and Bayern didn\'t handle it well. He said that the track got tighter and tighter the closer to Derby Day. His comment on working horses over the Churchill track the week before the Derby can be deceiving because the surface will not be the same come the big race.
KK4510 Wrote:
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> Baffert said in a radio interview that the track
> opening day was very deep and Bayern didn\'t handle
> it well.
Baffert said the same thing after Bayern tired at OP. It\'s unlikely Pim will be demanding/tiring on the big day. CC and SI also like it quick tho.
> He said that the track got tighter and
> tighter the closer to Derby Day. His comment on
> working horses over the Churchill track the week
> before the Derby can be deceiving because the
> surface will not be the same come the big race.
He is becoming an \"excuse\" horse. The price would have to be right to take a plunge IMO
He was a \"short\" horse at oaklawn on a track he didn\'t like? And then a dead rail, dead speed track at Churchill on another surface he didn\'t like.
The cup half empty is that he was pretty disgusting at oaklawn, crawling home, losing the place spot to a horse that didn\'t run much in the derby. And the horse that got put up over him was part of the speed only path further out than he was.
Since he has been more exposed, I would bet he is a longer price than social inclusion. I believe they are about the same horse, with one big exception. The exception being the trainer. No offense to the 83 year old trainer, but he keeps putting 3 furlong works into a horse that was short bottom big time in the wood. While we all know Baffert gets them to fire in the triple crown
If there is somebody to take a shot with in the Preakness against the chalk, Bayern is probably it, especially if u can get 6-1 or so, in a relatively small field
Michael D. Wrote:
>
> Baffert said the same thing after Bayern tired at
> OP. It\'s unlikely Pim will be demanding/tiring on
> the big day. CC and SI also like it quick tho.
Why is it unlikely? Pimlico main was like a beach last year.
85 year old Manny Azpurua is looking for his first Grade 1 win with Social Inclusion in the Preakness.
SI is fast and the likely pace setter but tough to take as the second choice at this distance with less than ideal preparation.It\'ll be interesting if he draws outside of California Chrome.
I don\'t know that Bayern is definite for the Preakness or if Stevens gets the mount.There\'s still another work and while they\'re leaning that way it didn\'t sound like Baffert was thrilled to be going against CC.They avoided him in the SA Derby and its possible they run on the undercard at Pimlico like they did with Paynter a couple years ago coming out of the Derby Trial.
If Bayern does run along with SI and Pablo you would think the pace would be legit.CC can sit off them if he draws outside.If inside they might be forced into sending him.
Dynamic Impact should get a better setup than he did at Hawthorne where he was forced into chasing from the inside.These aren\'t Midnight Hawk but DI came home fast against the clock that day once he was switched to the outside.He might be okay in Baltimore if they mix it up early.
Kasept Wrote:
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> Michael D. Wrote:
> >
> > Baffert said the same thing after Bayern tired
> at
> > OP. It\'s unlikely Pim will be demanding/tiring
> on
> > the big day. CC and SI also like it quick tho.
>
> Why is it unlikely? Pimlico main was like a beach
> last year.
just going with the percentages on the big days.
but I haven\'t watched a lot of Pim. how\'s it been playing lately?
Mike D,
Track on the dull side, wide sweepers doing well,early speed kinda negative first few days,next week may be a better barometer.
Mike
Wouldnt expect anything less than a sarcastic \" I know it all\" post from this clown...miff\'s response much more appropriate
nothing wrong with a \"why\" when last year\'s Preakness day surface was not quick.
and Mike always has good info on track bias.
very important subject imo. we\'re dealing with a huge favorite here and a bias that might aid SI or Bay, or a closer at a huge price, could be worth a ton of money (tho CC obviously has no problem with quick surfaces).