I don\'t remember a slower derby fig from the beyer guys. Hard to argue based on the raw times and the esrlier dirt races. Also tough to think so many horses ran so poorly. Wonder if the track changed in the 2 hours netween dirt races or do we really have that bad of a 3 year old crop. Lots of fast ones did miss the race. Tough call.
Saw that candy boy went off at 9-1 after being 16-1 as they loaded. In a 20 million dollar win pool, that is some late action.
Two hours and 39 minutes elapsed between the Churchill Downs Stakes and the Derby. It was a warm and very windy day. I was on the backside and it was sandstorm at times. I don\'t recall seeing or hearing water trucks after the Woodford Reserve. The Derby was run on an unusually dry, loose track.
Beyer ought to be embarrassed to be using variants of any other races to use to compute the Derby here.
Vag,
The NBC feed showed a water truck and harrowing in between. The last dirt route somewhat disputes that the track slowed dramatically.
Unless there were unusual headwind gusts during the derby, it looks a bit slow. Having said that, with ground and a scale weight adj the fig stillage be in the TG 0 range for the winner depending on how JB sees the 2nd, 3rd, 4th place finishers mainly.
Ton of X\'s,maybe winner and second horse, for sure, with tops.
Mike
1 1/16 vs 1 1/4 isnt even comparable when there\'s a stiff headwind.
That makes sense, Mike. The backside is so crowded & hectic the hour before Derby that it\'s hard to see & hear what\'s happening on the track. Especially with wind gusts rattling your eardrums.
Interesting that the last race was run in fairly normal fashion. Maybe these horses are just slow. Or maybe the track was such that the longer you ran, the more effort it required.
I suppose it\'s possible that the XL grandstand could cause the wind to swirl on the track, but the wind itself was gusting such that horses ran into a headwind on the 1st turn and a tailwind on the 2nd. It blew steadily in that direction, from barns to spires, all afternoon.
Vag,
All reasonable explanations.Bottom line was so many did not show up, a few rough trips, the winner showed up with his usual race and no one was better yesterday.
Mike
Mike-- any idea how long before the Derby they watered?
Wind can effect not just time, but moisture content. With that much time between races that probably matters more.
Yep. That\'s about all there is to it. Tactical speed freed CC from the traffic problems that hurt others. And unlike the other speedsters, he can finish.
On the surface 97 seems like a ridiculously slow Beyer figure. I would think Commanding Curve ran his best race to date. And when you factor in ground loss and weight he had to go forward.
Hats off to the winner. He made his own trip, got exactly the trip that he wanted and ran his race. When they came out of the first turn I was yelling at the screen for Samraat to get over and try to squeeze Chrome or at least put his nose in front and try to put Chrome between horses. He didn\'t.
Halfway down the backstretch I figured the race was more or less over unless Chrome quit for some reason. All I wound up with was a $12 Tri Saver bet, and after taxes I only got back .76 on the dollar for now.
Just.... missed.... again....
Definitely saw it, no idea when except after Wise Dan ran
There was a 20-25 mph headwind in the stretch ...
Mjellish, that\'s exactly what I told my wife when Chrome moved up inside of Samraat. Chrome may have still just outfinished everyone, but he\'d have gotten hung up a little longer, it could of been real interesting with Curve running late.
We did the walk-over about 10 minutes after Wise Dan\'s race, and I remember a water truck passed us by the wire. It was quite a bit of time before the Derby.
LMAO
That\'s interesting.
looking at the official chart, without considering the time, the race was run like a classic fast where the speed collapsed
2nd place went to a horse 18th at the half, 17th at the 3/4, & 11th at the mile
3rd place went to a horse 9th at the 1/2, 8th at the 3/4, & 5th at the mile
4th place went to a horse 12th the half, 11th at the 3/4, & 10th at the mile
with the exception of chrome, the leaders for most of the race finished 9th and 14th
also the only horse in the top 7 trained by a big time trainer was danza
the 3/4 split was respectable, i\'d say two things were going on--that there was definitely a strong head wind in the stretch and that the doping protocals worked this year.
head winds are a nightmare and their effect increases with the size of the object and the speed it\'s traveling.
in cycling, head winds can only be countered by riding in echelon. if you lose the wheel if the rider in front of you, you can drop 50-60 yards in less than a minute.
beyer gave a huge number to verazano in the haskel for the slowest haskel in 40 years won against a lame horse and claimers on a dead air day. he was a huge supported of verrazano. chrome ran just as dominate a race at a longer distance against better horses on a day with acknowledged strong winds, but beyer wasnt on chrome\'s bandwagon and picked againt him in the derby
just saying
on second thought, i\'d say they were running into strong cross winds for most of the race
crosswinds are even worse than headwinds, and would explain why no one seems to be able to agree on what direction the wind was blowing and why the worst efforts occurred in both stretches with decent efforts around each turn
ps: I dont have a dog in this fight. I watched the derby just like most of america, without a clue about the horses running in it.
after the baffert thyroid thing came out last fall, I couldnt stomach to continue to follow a sport as dirty as the one I left, esp. when those being doped weren\'t making the choice to jeapordize their health to cheat. but after peta\'s thing came out I was curious to see how many of last years two year olds made it to the ky derby contenders. ..almost none, I\'d lay a pretty sizable bet that if you checked thoses feet, they\'d be crap and no one wanted to risk the spot light.
the most damning thing about the peta tape wasnt the legal doping it was the nero footage and the fact that everyone of asmusens employees jept saying how much the hated these mother---ing horses and that there was always something f---ing wrong with them.
asmusen\'s costas denial was exactly like Armstrong\'s, I havent been sanctioned ergo im clean. he didnt even say how discussed he was with what was said and shown regarding nero.
It was a crosswind and gusty, not consistent. When it kicked up, it kicked hard. Definitely would have caused appreciable wind resistance on both stretches.
An hour after the race, the wind was gone.
Nice language.
I think for Asmussen the bigger problem isn\'t PETA.
I\'ve always been made to believe that hiring undocumented workers and manufacturing SSAN\'s can be real punitive if they want it to be.
I\'m done of the that fiasco.
Turns out that Beyer did adjust the derby figure,97, upwards by app 3 lengths, 6 Beyer points.Guess that\'s about as subjective as it can be,i.e.how much did the wind affect the time of the race and the fig.If you break the race out and go off the horses, maybe you get a less subjective fig in this case.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Turns out that Beyer did adjust the derby
> figure,97, upwards by app 3 lengths, 6 Beyer
> points.Guess that\'s about as subjective as it can
> be,i.e.how much did the wind affect the time of
> the race and the fig.If you break the race out and
> go off the horses, maybe you get a less subjective
> fig in this case.
nearly impossible to rate. a bunch of collapsing colts (CCur the only one with a sub :13 final 1/8) and wind that is very difficult to factor. I\'ll just go with my own eyes on this one.
the language wasnt mine, i was quoting what was said on the tapes by blasi--did you watch it? if you dont like the language thinking it was mine, you should be outraged that it came out of blasi\'s mouth, in about every other word he uttered
if nbc had aired the tape, asmusen would be in jail right now and racing would be facing the wrath of the american public for animal abuse. it was irresponsible not to run the the tape given they devoted significant air time replaying asmusen\'s redemption interview.
animal abuse is a crime in all fifty states with jail time...running a horse with severe hoof problems is animal abuse and if a non-industry vet had seen nero\'s condition, he would have been bound by law to report it...the industry vets are too but...
you\'re attitude regarding the welfare of the horses is exactly why I walked away. im ashamed I watched the derby. I said I wouldnt but like an addict I couldnt stop myself
ps: if you\'re done with it why even respond?
And I thought \"you did\'nt have a dog in the fight\". Sounds like PETA\'s your dog.
I watched the video and I heard what Blasi said. His language was disgusting.
We\'re not going to see, NBC or any of the major networks air that type of video. If you think they should have, then you\'re dreaming.
The public wrath is not gonna be grounds for Asmussen to be in jail, it would likely take an actual offense to have occurred that showed Asmussen committing animal cruel.
Your beef should be directed at the powers in charge of the conduct of rule/law breaking trainers and vets in the industry.
Regarding, as you say, \"my attitude regarding the welfare of the horses is exactly why you walked away.\" Since you or I have never met or had a conversation your comment speaks to your anger.
Its unfortunate you were ashamed that you watched the Derby. I would love to hear the \"real\" reason you watched the Derby.
I\'m sorry you feel like you are like an addict and unable to control your compulsion to watch the race. I\'m sad to say I personally have friends who are alcoholics. When they ask me what they should do, my suggestion to them is to not go in bars. Perhaps you might start to control your addiction if you chose to not visit a horseracing forum?
Look, I\'m not looking for a distasteful argument in this public forum, I think it shows great disrespect to TGJB and the other guys in the room. TGJB is only gonna let us go so far before he issues a legitimate stoppage of this nonsense. If you still feel like you need to unload on someone, feel free to send me a Person to Person and I\'ll be glad to mix it up with you there.
Did you play the race?
DRF\'s Jay Privman:
California Chrome ran the 1 1/4 miles in 2:03.66 and got a Beyer Speed Figure of 97, which would be the lowest winning figure in the Derby since Beyer first compiled them in 1989. But the number may end up better than that, with the difficulty of making a precise figure made challenging by the unusually long delay between the Turf Classic and the Derby. More than an hour passed between those races, and more than two hours passed between the Derby and the prior dirt race. The track was not watered after the walkover, so the surface likely was far drier for the Derby than any other main-track race on Saturday.
If that 97 figure holds, it would mean that eight of the first nine finishers all regressed off their prior race, with only runner-up Commanding Curve improving.
______________________________________
RIDE ON CURLIN
Billy Gowan, the trainer of Ride On Curlin, said the Preakness is a go, and that Joel Rosario would replace Calvin Borel in the saddle.
"Hopefully, he'll listen to me," Gowan said of Rosario. "Most of them don't want to listen to you, they know best. If he listens to what I tell him, we'll win the Preakness."
Gowan said he told Borel to break good and get some position. "He was six lengths off the last horse in a half in 48," Gowan said. "I wanted to throw up when they came by me the first time. I didn't tell him to take a left-hand turn coming out of there."
Well said and appreciated.
Whatever the headwind was other horses ran faster all day. This was a race where the rail was obviously very fast and the track was fast. the new york and florida speed horses were maybe very overrated. I thought the pace was extremely soft based on how horses ran earlier. Even with the supposed wind factor there were no fast splits in this race. California Chrome got handed this one and will come no where near a triple crown. 97 beyer here was a couple points higher then I thought. Doubt there is a big TG fig here either.
I thought the Bluegrass horses ran ok. I felt Medal Count could of easily got second or at least third had Danza not cut him off so severely. Thought he would get taken down. What was he doing in the stretch?
I think the scratch of Pablo may have really played a big role on how this race was run. Maybe also Candy Boy may have been the best horse. Have to see how he does the next race. I thought Stevens screwed this up. Had a chance to cut in much earlier.
I saw some comments that DWF was somewhat impeded by Danza as well, but it appeared to me he was mostly clear on the outside? Anyone see anything different? Played DWF/MC exactas and left the race alone other than that. Now hoping for Cali Chorme follow up in Baltimore as another poster stated, so the Belmont will make for a real nice opportunity. Don\'t think he wins in Baltimore though, he was clear, but he looked worse for the wear at the wire.
You have to keep in mind that the wind impact on the early fractions of this race was far different than anything else run on dirt that day because the entire 1st quarter was run into the wind, unlike all the other races. The raw time was slower than most recent derbies (22 and 1 or 22 and 2 the past couple years) but it doesn\'t mean that the horses were \"slower\" or putting forth less effort, it just didn\'t show up on the stopwatch because of the wind.
When you reach the backstretch where the wind is finally helping, you are at a point in the race where everyone is trying to get their horses to relax and take a break, so it\'s not surprising you didn\'t see a blazing split here either.
But most importantly, raw time comparisons to the other races even that day may not be valid if the track truly was not watered within an hour of the Derby running. The track would have been much drier and looser than other races, and this translates to more tiring and slower, especially toward the back end of the race where this would start to take its toll.
Pizzalove what would a fast rail have to do with CC? I don\'t remember CC ever being less then 2/3 wide.
It was amusing listening to Beyer trying to explain the slow fig on the Byk radio show today. He said all the races before and after the derby were fast. I guess he forgot the part about the wind dying down after the derby and the track being watered.........
Off the top of my head i would think Chrome more or less paired. Just look at dust kicking up from the replay of the derby bs earlier dirt races. Track speed changes. Thats going to probably put rags and TG users on much different colts for triple crown and later and probably lends to much different pattern takes for a long time. Will have to see how the each do the day.
Basically correct on how we did it, putting it up here in a little while. Could conceivably have taken off a point but it would have meant giving good figures to a whole bunch of horses who had trouble, at a mile and a quarter. Think it\'s correct the way I did it.
Jimbo, there\'s an argument to be made the Cal figures are a half point slow, I\'ll watch it.
All of this sophisticated figure making talk is over my head so I am going to resort to my usual summary of the Derby when I lose.
I got the race right
but the horses ran it wrong
All three fig makers reporting in so far posted a fig equal to a TG 0(zero)which leads me to believe they have stolen my conversion formula!!
Rags not out yet but had CC app 2 points slower than the other fig makers going in.
Yeah, but they had him as fast as Tapiture.
They have his top in a sprint as a 2yo, for reasons I have beaten to death here, and there are lots of \"wides\", so they could do pretty much anything without surprising me.
Rag pals still ill that a horse that never got back to its 2 yr old top won.I feel badly for them,suggested Kool Aid rehab but stuff too addictive.
\"Kool Aid\" theory isn\'t the problem when you have major systemic errors in your figures. He HAD gotten back to his top.
And as far as that goes, sheets theory led me to predict that a whole bunch of horses would bounce, and that one was the most likely to run a new top.
Hear Rags gave CC a 7.25 which is like TG 3.75. Appears they went off the clock, which is how you could get there. Seems other fig makers went a different way.
Yeah, they\'re now posted on their site. At the risk of inciting a riot over there, they\'re freakin\' hilarious. Which everyone would see if they posted the full sheets, not just the figure they ran.
The idea behind making and using speed figures, for everyone, is that there is correlation between what figures they ran in the past and what they do now. Anyone who can see correlation between figure histories and what figures the Derby horses were assigned on Jake (or even a pattern) please post here. Forget that they had 19 out of 20 horses, including the winner, going back more than a point-- why THERE? Why not better, or worse?
For the only conceivable answer I can think of, check out \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archive section of this site.
There are only three types of people still using Jake. One is guys like Vito, who are completely invested psychologically, all in-- they\'re not open to any discussion of figures or figure making, just bringing up the subject makes them agitated. A second group (which is getting a lot smaller) contains those who have not compared products and methods. The third has some horsemen, who are getting Jake for close to free and don\'t want to pay what I charge.
Was Horseplayers picked up for a second season?
Is it possible that a show called Figure Makers might be more compelling?
a) Don\'t know, b) Yes. Please.
I\'ll even act like Christian if it will help.
Look Jerry I don\'t want to discuss figure making because I know as much about it as brain surgery. I use their data because I believe their numbers.Let\'s put it another way, some people drive BMW,some audi,some honda.It\'s all a matter of choice.I could care less how many customer he has,or you have, means nothing to me.
Yeah. Wearing a tail would go over big at an unnamed downtown bar.
It means enough for you to comment when I show examples of the differences.
Assuming you mean EO, he has shown up there wearing that and worse-- flashing lights. It gets him in lots of conversations with women.
The differences are your opinion that\'s all.
You\'re right, you don\'t know anything about making figures. And don\'t want to.
Look, Vito. There\'s no chance I\'ll ever get you as a customer while those guys are in business, not what this is about. But explaining how figures are (should) be made has a) gotten me a lot of customers, and b) educated the public a great deal on this subject.
The other guys, on the other hand, discourage all such discussion. You really should ask yourself why. Because there has to be SOME reason to believe one is better.
A far as how many customers you have, again I could care less.As far as learning about numbers if i could make my own I wouldn\'t use them.It just seems that starting with the wood every year you begin to attack their numbers and it is really kind of funny.
There are two times of year when a) I see their figures and b) everyone is looking at the same horses-- Triple Crown and Breeders Cup. That\'s when I bring it up.
You may not care about how many customers we have. I do, and I\'ll guarantee Jake does.
you guys should get a room..
Ok now I will address your 2 favorite issues.First your numbers ,too many pairups.You could not put an Indy 500 driver in a car, race him around belmont and come up with 6 pairups or close to pair ups like you are doing in 10 races.It seems at the least contrived.or you feel this is what they should run.Now the owners using them on the cheap.SMA,TAP and whoever else uses them is using them to save money .Guys training million dollar horses for big time stables and I am sure there are others who are using an inferior product.Do you know how stupid that sounds.?They are trying to place their horses in the right spot and they are using bad numbers,to save whatever,absurd.
Tomorrow, when I\'m back in the office. Promise.
Actually, you should. Right now would be good.