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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Fairmount1 on May 01, 2014, 06:03:45 PM

Title: Derby Week Ramblings
Post by: Fairmount1 on May 01, 2014, 06:03:45 PM
1. Free isn\'t Free at DRF.  Anyone else receive the email about how Formulator wasn\'t working well today so you get a free Formulator PP for a card between May 5th and May 11th?  Perfect, I can\'t wait to buy a Fingers Lakes card to start really digging into next week while Formulator is failing today.  Oh and by the way, it\'s not really free because their system requires a $.01 charge in order for you to access your free card.  In contrast, TG knows FREE during Holiday season.

2. Richiebee, will you play Pablo if he enters?  Is the emotional connection strong enough for you to stick with him?  At 50-1 if he wires the field, will you be haunted for years to come?  The question you posed a while back is one of the hardest facets of the game for me to conquer and deal with week in and week out, month in and month out.  While I don\'t see him winning, I did think he ran a game race at Keeneland on the front end of a race that couldn\'t be won from there that day.  

3. To steal a line from Hawthorne announcer Peter Galassi, Ol Man River....or rather.., River Bear is appearing at Churchill on Saturday for a grade 3 race.  And I had just asked my dad about two weeks ago, why didn\'t they ever see how good he really was all these years and he shows up on Derby Day in an impossible slot I assume he was \"hustled\" into by CD.  While he likely has only a small chance to hit the tri or super, he is the King of Fairmount the last 15 years since I\'ve started following the game--no local horse has been better, not even Tic N Tin or my favorite, Lac Bonhomme.  They hope to make him a millionaire in his 9yo season.  If you haven\'t seen his lifetime PP\'s, they are truly worth a look especially the prices he has paid through the years in victory.  It is good to see Fairmount people even if they aren\'t \"favorites\" in Louisville on Derby week.  Curiously, can someone truly explain what Ol Man River means?  I see that it is a song from the 20\'s but I remember it being used all the time such as in Old School when Blue dies and Vince Vaughn calls him Old Man River.  Maybe I\'m too young to truly understand the allusion.  As for \"River Bear,\" a google search reveals that is a card from the \"Magic, The Gathering\" of which I also know nothing about.  Anyone that wishes to enlighten me by private message, feel free.

4. Wicked Strong my key in 1st and 2nd.  Throwing out CC altogether.  I like several longer prices around him including MC, US, DWF, Danza.    

5. So a Baffert horse had a foot problem and scratched?  Wait, I thought Chitu had the problem and the special spider shoe.  Hmmm....interesting the number of highly regarded horses that make it to the precipice of Derby history only to be scratched.  Remind me who trained Uncle Mo, I Want Revenge, Eskendreya, and now Hoppertunity?  Rhetorical obviously.....

6. Best bet of the weekend:  Saa Mii, Race 13 on Saturday to get you out after all your crazy, wild bets and ideas that didn\'t come to fruition.  Use him to win, use him in horizontals along with Baffert and play with the Baffert horse as a saver in exacta.  Richiebee should be proud that I\'m emotionally tied enough to play him again after posting about Saa Mii a few months ago....but I honestly believe he will win the race.  

7. Board views and posts always fantastic this time of year.  I read the board everyday all year long and often wish in the slow times more people posted the same enlightened thoughts they do during triple crown season.  This week I can\'t refresh the site fast enough all day long to keep up.  Best of luck.

EDIT:  Anyone know if Crist will be posting Derby Day or more importantly, how he is doing?  I\'m sure it\'s in a DRF Plus article to find out.  And I nominate Intense Holiday and Medal Count as the finalists for Wise Guy horse of 2014.
Title: Re: Derby Week Ramblings
Post by: TGJB on May 01, 2014, 06:15:19 PM
Search Old Man River/Showboat. Then Paul Robeson.
Title: Re: Derby Week Ramblings
Post by: richiebee on May 01, 2014, 09:38:22 PM
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> 2. Richiebee, will you play Pablo if he enters?
> Is the emotional connection strong enough for you
> to stick with him?  At 50-1 if he wires the field,
> will you be haunted for years to come?  The
> question you posed a while back is one of the
> hardest facets of the game for me to conquer and
> deal with week in and week out, month in and month
> out.  While I don\'t see him winning, I did think
> he ran a game race at Keeneland on the front end
> of a race that couldn\'t be won from there that
> day.  
 
Ward not gung ho to run and I\'m not gung ho to bet.
My affinity for PDM in the BG was based on his two
blowout 2YO wins at Keeneland.

 
> 4. Wicked Strong my key in 1st and 2nd.  Throwing
> out CC altogether.  I like several longer prices
> around him including MC, US, DWF, Danza.    
 
Apparently Jimmy Jerkens asked his father what he thought of
bringing WS to the Derby. Allen Jerkens apparently told his son
to skip the Derby and run in the Peter Pan and the Belmont.
 
> And I nominate Intense Holiday and Medal Count as the
> finalists for Wise Guy horse of 2014.

What makes IH a wise guy horse? A win and a second in the two major
Louisiana preps for this high priced yearling, whose daddy was a beaten
fave in this race, plus the fact that he is arguably one of the two or
three fastest in this race TG wise. He has always seemed kind of logical to
me. The fact that he has made a good appearance at CD is an added plus.

As to Medal Count, how many Ky Derby winners broke their maiden at
the \"Pea Patch\", the affectionate name given to Ellis Park when they
used to have soybeans growing in the infield?

I think the closest thing to a \"wise guy\" play is tossing the
likely post time favorite, as many T-generates, from the Chief Kool
Aid Mixer on down, seem to be doing.
Title: Re: Derby Week Ramblings
Post by: Rick B. on May 01, 2014, 10:11:13 PM
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 3. To steal a line from Hawthorne announcer Peter
> Galassi, Ol Man River....or rather.., River Bear
> is appearing at Churchill on Saturday for a grade
> 3 race.  And I had just asked my dad about two
> weeks ago, why didn\'t they ever see how good he
> really was all these years and he shows up on
> Derby Day in an impossible slot I assume he was
> \"hustled\" into by CD.  While he likely has only a
> small chance to hit the tri or super...

Oh, ye of little faith!

River Bear has the best Late Pace number in the race,
a huge plus at 7 furlongs if the racing surface stays
fair.

Plus, if you have been watching him the last few years,
you know he is simply relentless in deep stretch, and
his current rider, Tim Thornton, knows this as well.

River Bear just might kill a ton of P4 and P6 tickets
if he wins. You don\'t want to be the \"Fairmount Guy\"
who didn\'t cash on Fairmount\'s Favorite Race Horse,
do you?