I\'ve seen many horses bounce 2 pts off their top and come back to run their top in the next race. Understand that this could be an 0-2-x in the making but I wanted to get some thoughts on this. Besides Commanding Curve & Wicked he is the only other one I am considering for the win. Training great. Thoughts?
My problem with the horse is the big fig came at 1 1/16.At this time of year I like to see horses run faster as the races get longer. General A Rod looks good , but he hasn\'t won a race going past a mile. I\'m not saying they can\'t win, but I like horses that get better when the distance gets longer..
After looking and looking at him he is one I am throwing out of the top two spots for sure. I just really think he is going to be way over bet when you look at the problems he has switching leads. I mean if he is in mid stretch having problems all alone whats going to happen when he gets bumped around? Cause they all get bumped around in a 20 horse field sometime during the race. With the way people are talking about his works how good he looked I really think there is no value esp if CC does win. I would use Danza if choosing a Pletcher horse before IH. Plus this means nothing I know this but if you as a owner really think you can win do you need to go and buy another horse in the race less then a week out?? Just something that popped in my mind soon as I heard they bought GAR. Like I said means nothing, just sometimes when thoughts like that pop in your head, it turns out to be the most simple logic out there. lol Good luck to all this Oaks/Derby weekend...
Mike Battaglia dropped the odds on Intense Holiday down from 12-1 to 8-1 after Hopportunity\'s scratch. He changed several others as well. He dropped Vicar\'s in Trouble from 30-1 to 20-1.
Mike \"Buffon-aglia\" is correcting a mistake with Vicar\'s in Trouble.
Scratching an 8-1 shot in a 20 horse field doesn\'t change a horses chance to win from 1 in 31 to 1 in 21.....
Jimb0-- Correct.
Meanwhile, looking at the DRF morning line for Saturday\'s undercard, think the guy who did it was doing acid. Examples-- the Pletcher in the second, and outside horse in the 12th. Both will be half or shorter than he has them.
I thought the same thing Jimbo. It just didn\'t make sense to change that much based on one scratch. If you like Intense Holiday, I think you have to like the move over to the start of the aux gate as a plus.
If you watched the draw, when he originally came out with the line, he said 30-1 on VIT, but the screen graphic showed 20-1. He probably f\'ed it up and took this opportunity to correct, instead of doing so right there.
It doesn\'t matter. But what he said was that because of the draw he was changing the line from 20-1 to 30-1 and the graphic was wrong, they showed 20-1.
On the NBC Sports Derby show today, Mike was interviewed about the changes he was making because of the scratch. There were a few changes to the ML odds and these were the two most significant changes.