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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: covelj70 on April 30, 2014, 02:29:49 PM

Title: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: covelj70 on April 30, 2014, 02:29:49 PM
I can\'t play any horse from the 20 hole

back to the drawing board for me
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: TreadHead on April 30, 2014, 02:32:25 PM
Surprised by all the negativity on the VIT draw in the 1 hole.  He is pure speed and will clear off from this rail issue right away.  Not sure if we\'ve had a pure speed horse in the 1 hole recently.  Completely agree it is a death trap for a horse that can\'t gain position quickly, but VIT should be able to do it fine.  Whether or not he can last 10F is a whole other story.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: TGJB on April 30, 2014, 02:33:00 PM
What, Maragh\'s rides on Groupie Doll (always widest) don\'t encourage you?
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: TGJB on April 30, 2014, 02:34:00 PM
The over and under for posts on this thread is 25.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: justwin on April 30, 2014, 02:40:36 PM
same here Jim. He may run a big race, but being wide throughout doesn\'t help. He could drop in towards the back along the inside. Medal Count with all the positive talk is intriguing me. His last number fits. spacing stinks but by all accounts he looks good.

Jerry, I\'ll take the over.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: baron1970 on April 30, 2014, 02:41:48 PM
I\'ll take over the total! General A Rod drew perfect! Fast enough and and will excel at the distance.Barbaro sat a perfect rip from post 8 and this horse has tactical speed to do the same...
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: mjellish on April 30, 2014, 02:58:35 PM
I think Cal Chrome is a dead duck from the 5.  Aost a toss for me.  20 post isnt good for WS.  Crowd noise.  He needs cover.  Loads last though.  More later.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: Al Caught Up on April 30, 2014, 03:00:29 PM
Three Ring?
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: jimbo66 on April 30, 2014, 03:10:02 PM
General a-rod needed to draw a gate that was 200 yards in front of the others to have a shot at winning
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: TheBull on April 30, 2014, 03:12:54 PM
The wager Id most want to get down on (now that Jimbo denied my bet that Wise Dan ran in the 2010 bc sprint), is Vicar\'s in Trouble to be the horse whose post time odds least reflect their ML. There is absolutely zero chance the horse goes off close to 30/1, I don\'t care if he starts the race in Hardin County
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: jimbo66 on April 30, 2014, 03:17:17 PM
Bull

Agreed.  Rosie was single digits with pants on fire.  

Vicars in trouble is actually interesting with the rail draw.  Wildcat red working poorly may may mean he won\'t fire hard.  Irad in post 3 with uncle sigh is a very passive gate rider.  

Chrome doesn\'t always break.  Chitu will break well.  

Rosie may get a decent trip with a horse with number power.  

Think she goes off 16-1
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: alydar61 on April 30, 2014, 03:17:24 PM
I would rather have him here than the 1-4. He\'ll have the shortest time in the gate. Enthusiasm definitely tempered though.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: sekrah on April 30, 2014, 03:21:44 PM
If the rail is fair Saturday I\'ll still be using VIT despite of Post #1.  If it\'s dead (like it\'s been all week), I\'m out.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: Topcat on April 30, 2014, 03:22:26 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The over and under for posts on this thread is 25.


Dead-nuts over -- even with no more help from me.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: baron1970 on April 30, 2014, 03:24:36 PM
Wow, my guess is you have as much chance of cashing the race as you think of the horse winning, 0%!
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: TheBull on April 30, 2014, 03:31:25 PM
Exactly. I\'d be stunned if VIT was higher than 15-1 to 18-1 range. I think the real decision with VIT will come based on what Harry\'s Holiday and Uncle Sigh do to his outside. Essentially from the rail, you have to make a right turn almost, which can be difficult when posts 2 and 3 are not doing the same. Where does the room come from? Worth noting that Maker trains the 2 post also, which could be some benefit pre race. Just trying to put some water in the glass to make it at least half full for you Jimbo. I have a future on him at juicy odds so, not exactly saying I\'m rooting against it. Good luck!!!
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: alang on April 30, 2014, 04:09:00 PM
all it takes its one or two not ready and don\'t get away like they should and can change the whole completion of the race.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: TGJB on April 30, 2014, 04:15:01 PM
Rail was fine today.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: elkurzhal on April 30, 2014, 04:21:03 PM
last in the gate is probably a very good thing for Wicked Strong, and you probably picked up 2-3 points on the price.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: jbelfior on April 30, 2014, 06:11:57 PM
Jim:
Glad for you. WS had no shot from any post IMO. Passed a bunch of tired colts in the Wood.

Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: Bigredgoer on April 30, 2014, 07:09:27 PM
FWIW..@DRFGrening ...\"Jimmy Jerkens said Edgar Prado, who rode WS once, texted him \"perfect\" when he drew post 20\"...
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: Lost Cause on April 30, 2014, 07:16:16 PM
Bigredgoer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FWIW..@DRFGrening ...\"Jimmy Jerkens said Edgar
> Prado, who rode WS once, texted him \"perfect\" when
> he drew post 20\"...


Perfect must mean something really bad in Spanish.

either that or it\'s an F.U. from Prado because they took him off the horse
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: FrankD. on April 30, 2014, 10:02:14 PM
Really???

I would have bet dollars to donuts you would have X\'s on Lightning Angel in the 6th and Oldwick in the 8th. Looked like both sank in quick sand on the fence.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: jerry on April 30, 2014, 10:43:19 PM
Medal Count\'s sheet reminds me a lot of Charismatic\'s. Ran a big new top a couple of weeks before the derby and paired it.
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: Ollie on May 01, 2014, 12:13:42 AM
Or, maybe it means, being outside they won\'t be spending a couple of hours cleaning all the crap of the horse\'s eyes from the kickback, which they also felt affected the horse besides the gash, in his Holy Bull race.Plus, having tactical speed, Maragh can look for a comfortable spot to track without being too wide, and not giving up too much ground, since they are not all going to be on the lead, at the same time, are they?
Title: Re: 2nd time in 4 years months worth of work goes out the door in post draw
Post by: Lost Cause on May 01, 2014, 05:13:47 AM
Ollie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Or, maybe it means, being outside they won\'t be
> spending a couple of hours cleaning all the crap
> of the horse\'s eyes from the kickback, which they
> also felt affected the horse besides the gash, in
> his Holy Bull race.Plus, having tactical speed,
> Maragh can look for a comfortable spot to track
> without being too wide, and not giving up too much
> ground, since they are not all going to be on the
> lead, at the same time, are they?


Year after year I see thoughts on the outside posts and the inside posts and how it will be overcome and every year I watch those horses go 6 wide or get killed on the inside as the whole field tries to come over for position.  Unless you are a Big Brown layover I just toss em and let them beat me.  Those draws are brutal and there are enough things to overcome.