Now that the draw has happened, and BEFORE TGJB puts out the seminar, thought it would be a good time to put some final thoughts on the Oaks out there. (\"final\" assuming we get a fair track, may have to revisit if the track is dead on the rail and dead to speed the next few days).
Captain Obvious statement is that the million dollar question is what to do with Untapable. She is a VERY tough read for me. I liked her stakes win last year at Churchill Downs, where she was rank and still ran on late, confirming heart, talent and an affinity for CD. Off that win, I \"bet out\" on her next two races, both VERY DISAPPOINTING efforts on the left coast. I guess we give her the lasix mulligan for the BC, but she was pretty common in the Starlet, albeit over Cushion track, not dirt. She goes away for the winter and comes back \"breathing fire\" in two races at the Fairgrounds, running numbers that would make her the horse to beat in the Derby, distance and gender notwithstanding. It would seem to be shortsighted to call her a Fairgrounds \"horse for the course\" based on the nice win at CD. By all accounts, with the notable exception of our Mr. Covello, she is working well at CD in preparation for the Oaks. Is the 1 1/8 a question off the not so good record of Tapit horses stretching out to classic distances? Now, she draws post 13 and figures for a wide trip, especially when you have to think Rosie will be under instructions to keep the \"best horse in the clear, out of trouble\". Can the two big efforts take enough out of her such that she regresses/bounces and this, combined with a wide trip, make her vulnerable at roughly even money?
As I said, very tough call. Especially when you look at the alternatives in the race. Without just hoping for chaos, I can only make a viable case for 3 other horses and I am stretching it for the 3rd horse.
The most likely horse to upset her has to be My Miss Sophia, just off number power. Is a fast horse, draws inside the favorite, should beat her out of the gate to get position and figures to be a fair price, although I do expect her to be second choice and closer to 5-1 than 8-1. The obvious questions are that she has been around two turns exactly once and could not have had an easier trip that day. She certainly won\'t get that kind of trip today. But on \"number power\" and connections, she has to be given a chance to win.
The second most likely horse to beat the favorite IMO is Unbridled Forever. Ran a very big number as a 2 year old, at Churcill Downs, although the fact she hasn\'t come back to it yet is a bit of a concern. She ran her big one last year, 2nd time out, and is now second off a bit of a layoff. We all know Dallas Stewart has obviously been pointing to this race, and I think we see her best Friday. I have to admit, her run in the Fairground Oaks is discouraging, but if you filter that as a bit of a prep and focus on the race this filly ran last year at CD, then she fits, although obviously the top one can\'t run one of her two best figs, or nobody has a shot.
The third mostly likely horse to beat the favorite IMO is probably Rosalind, although personally, I will have to hold my nose if I bet this horse. She is a slow, grindy horse, whose sheet overstates her ability because her figures are loaded with ground loss. We are talking about a filly whose best Beyer figure on dirt is an 80. (quoting Beyer figs to avoid stealing TGJB\'s thunder with the package tomorrow). That said, I think she could be used, as there is some chance of a bit of a meltdown in the Oaks. Sugar Shock has speed, Kiss Moon has speed, Fashion Plate has speed, Empress of Midway has speed, My Miss Sophia has speed and Untapable won\'t be far behind. If they contest the pace and the closers dominate, I could see Rosario sweeping wide to run down an exhausted field late. And based on the way this filly looks in the PPs, have to believe you get 10-1.
The rest are pretty slow and would be a complete aberration if they won, IMO.
Personally, will mostly be playing this race horizontally and vertically. I am going to take a stand against Will TAke Charge in the race prior to the oaks, as I didn\'t like his last race, was pretty unimpressive in victory and figured D Wayne would give him some time. Surprised he is squeezing the lemon again. Will use Normandy Invasion and My Lute as my \"A\" horses in that race and will probably make a \"value based\" decision to attack Untapable in the Oaks. Odds on in a 13 horse field, with the outside post and a lot of pace inside her, I am going to hope the two big runs took something out of her. But won\'t be shocked if she rolls. She is clearly the best filly coming into the race.
Jimbo- Any thoughts on Thank You Marylou??
Should benefit stretching out and a return to what I think is her preferred surface...
Just curious on your thoughts as I\'m right there with you on My Miss Sophia and Unbridled Forever.
KMart
Kmart
She is 30-1 ML, so if u like her, u MUST play her! I would not want to talk u off her.
Tough to like her chances for me. Two slow sprints last year. A ridiculously fast sprint this year at gulf, followed by a poly route that was slow, albeit on poly. She is by Birdstone out of a Menifee mare, so the route should be fine. With such limited info on her, hard to say how she will be at a route on dirt, but the ML more than compensates for the uncertainty. I don\'t believe I could use her on top, but I would use her ahead of several horses who will be shorter in price, including fashion plate and sugar shock.
Good luck!
kmart4503 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo- Any thoughts on Thank You Marylou??
>
> Should benefit stretching out and a return to what
> I think is her preferred surface...
>
> Just curious on your thoughts as I\'m right there
> with you on My Miss Sophia and Unbridled Forever.
>
> KMart
Hey Kmart. I looked at this race today after the PP draw and came up with Thank You Marylou also and of course Untapable.
Have a feeling the last race first time at a route on the tiring poly surface gave her some bottom. Now she\'ll go out second time at a route with very capable connections off a possible lively pace returning to what I think is the preferred surface and probably preferred distance; 30/1 is not so bad also but I can\'t leave Untapable out of any plays.