Someone who knows what he\'s seeing, and isn\'t prone to exaggeration, says they\'ve only seen one horse on the inside outwork the one outside. Not a Derby horse so name doesn\'t matter.
Torrential rains at CD today and maybe tomorrow. Surely track maintenance will be fussing with the surface this week.
CD Opening night played outside-ish, slightly negative to speed.Thinking Bayern raced against dynamics/path,so forgiving his ordinary looking performance.
Just watch Calvin on Friday and in the early races on Saturday
He knows when the rail is live and when it\'s dead
If he avoids the rail, it\'s for a reason and we have our answer!
that said, I disagree with whoever told you that.
Watch Commanding Curve\'s breeze on the HRTV website (they posted them for free this year which is really cool, I used to pay for it).
Perfect Title who is on the inside is under a tight hold to allow Commanding Curve to pass him in the stretch. Commanding Curve was being asked for run while PT was under restraint with the rider essentially waiting for CC to move and then watch Perfect Title gallop way out past CC. It was an awful breeze for Commanding Curve and he was on the outside. No one could possibly watch that breeze and say the horse on the outside outworked the horse on the inside.
Also, wasn\'t intense holiday on the outside of we miss Artie as well?
I am pretty sure he was.
IT outworked WMA by 10 lengths
Think whoever told you this was messing around with you JB because these were just off the top of my head
Jim,
You had it right in your first post. Jerry is saying that all of the outside horses are outworking the inside except for one. But boy did IH outwork WMA.
George
Mike Welsh in his clockers report from yesterday or the day before hinted that the rail might be a little deeper.
It makes sense.
I don\'t remember a year where so few horses had average to below average works over the track. Really, who has worked well in the past week?
Usually, we have the opposite, where almost all the horses are working well and it becomes hard to differentiate \"how well\".
When you combine that fact, with the way the track played opening night, you read the comments from people in the game like Pletcher and others talking about the track, and then you add in the HORRIFIC track record of the Churchill Downs track crew, you have to be concerned.
Ignoring the way a track is playing and sticking with your predisposed opinions is a sure way to bankruptcy in this game. (I am still smarting from playing all the \"brilliant\" horses on the Pro-Ride Breeders Cups and seeing them lose to Raven\'s Pass and other stamina type).
Can\'t CD ever get the track right? Lucky for them the Parx track crew exists, otherwise the CD guys would be the absolute worst on the planet. Parx has had a dead rail since TGJB was a teenager.......
whoops, yes, thanks so much
appreciate the correction
Makes you wonder if General A Rod worked close to the rail last Wednesday, a photo on the DRF site taken by Barbara Livingston seemed to imply that he did.
Jimbo-- I truly wish I could say Parx was around when I was a teenager.
Keystone back then JB; they had a great race caller in Jack Lamar.
Spent a fair amount of time there, with Friedman, Richie Schwartz...
We once did Keystone, then drove to Pen, stayed over and went to Delaware the next day.
Another time we had a big day and took a cab back from Philly.
Liberty Bell??
The bus to Liberty Bell on a winters day. Like a trip to Lourdes.
Pretty sure that was where I saw a horse named Acquitted carry something like 145 lbs over a 1 1/2 or more and win by daylight in a Starter \'Cap.
This is looking bad.
4/5 favourite, with nose lead on the turn, on the rail, just finished 5th...out of 5 in the 3rd.
Rail horse was caught in the 1st as well, as the favourite again, did hold for 2nd. He\'d looked clear at the 1/8th pole but faltered in late stretch to be caught by Rosie.
In the 2nd the 4:1 3rd choice was head and head for the lead, on the rail, with the 4.5:1 4th choice at the head of the stretch. He backed up, not just behind the winner (that 4th choice) but also behind a 23:1 shot to finish a awful 5th.
Yep, Rail is deader than a door nail..
Phil,
You are 100% right. Another disgusting job by the inept crew at CD. Wide sweeping moves are fine, near the inside is death. Running on the lead is death.
How do these guys have jobs.
There aren\'t enough variables in this game?
Maybe that is why Asmussen was so happy drawing the 13 hole in the Oaks.
I think what is even more incredible is, if you look at the flags at CD today they are blowing stiff right to left, a sprinter\'s tailwind in the backstretch. Normally, this would be detrimental to closers facing a fierce headwind on the way home, but the bias is apparently so bad that not even a 30mph wind can stop them.
EDIT - Know its already been stated, but this is really worrisome in trying to think thru the workouts. What if good horses were looking bad due to the track?
First of all I\'m a newbie and am humbled to participate in this forum. As to todays perceived bias \"More to Worry About\"- the Weather Channel has not another drop of rain forecast after this evening through Saturday so however inept the CD crew is perceived here the track should be fast(really fast) and fair. Hoppertunity. Thanks for not mentioning him. I wouldn\'t want my 10/1 hammered down to 6/1 LOL. But..I think this horse has some serious upside. When needing to score the Derby points in the Rebel he showed some real character during that bumping match with Tapiture in the stretch. The kind of seasoning a horse will need in the Derby. As to the second in the SA. Mike Smith never tapped him and BB said rather coyly \"I knew we weren\'t going to beat CC\".Hmmm.. The tenet about 2yo\'s in the Derby may be disproved this year. Apology for being so long-winded but I love the intellectual challenge of this game.
I feel an Op-Ed in TDN coming on, taking the hide off CD. Gonna wait until I see tomorrow\'s results first.
Bet that last one in part because you could figure out she\'d be widest turning for home. Handicapping through the looking glass.
Eljayar52,
Unfortunately, rain isn\'t the problem at CD, at least not the only problem.
As for \"perceived\" in front of the word bias today, if you are watching the races, you will know it is more than perceived. Jockeys are seeing it also. They want 51 to a half and the front runners are setting the pace in the 5th path in some of the races. Silly and it ruins much of the \"intellectual challenge\" you refer to, as it becomes a crapshoot. (well, worse of a crap shoot than it already often is).
This inept crew, which replaced the inept crew that got fired following the back to back BC dead rail fiascos, apparently hasn\'t learned much from history.
They have a couple days to get it right, but not sure they will.
I hear you. Did the same thing with the winner last race, but betting horses you would normally never bet because they are gonna be off the rail or grinding on a dead speed track is just awful.
The inverse is no good either. (tossing horses you like because of the bias) I still hate myself for getting off Eibar Coa on a horse I loved in the BC Sprint at CD, because speed and the inside were so bad. Coa got his horse out of the gate and set the pace from the 5 path. A brilliant ride, but very hard to count on. (forgetting the horse\'s name, but believe he set the pace in Rachel\'s Preakness win) Drama something I think.
Yep, Big Drama, remember it well. Was able to clear the field and move way off. Super smart.
Big Drama?
Your thoughts on Hoppertunity?
Welcome newbie!
Regards humility, you\'ll probably get over it.
Regards the weather, what do you think the chances are their # is right?
As for the ground crew, if the owners are furious with CDI management, the players hate the SOB\'s, Louisvilleguy presumably, wouldn\'t throw a one of them a rope if .... What would the employees (who are most effected) think or do about management.
As for Hopp-or-tunity, bad luck, I think his best number came on a wet track. But, good luck with derby. Hmm, A Baffert horse with an upside, curious concept?
Yeah, exactly. Using Big Drama as an example, first you have to identify the dead rail, then you have to hope the connections do, then you have to hope they can do something about it (which in that case looked impossible). Cost me money too.
Big drama.
Thanks guys.
Get that horse\'s name confused with my teenage daughter....
As for Hoppertunity, I think this track would help him. I believe the horse is a grinder, very long winded and IMO a much better fit in the Belmont. But if we get a deadish track then grinders with stamina become very appealing. (See a slug like Drosselmeyer winning the BC Classic on a dead track)
If we get a fast track, with no bias, Hoppertunity doesn\'t seem to have either the agility to get good position in a big field or a burst of speed to seize command on the turn. A \"tweener\" for me.
But certainly is coming into the race right. A good win at FG and a solid prep kind of run at SA.
That said, he was light years behind Chrome.
10-1 or better seems fair, if u like him
If I remember that race correctly, was it not Wise Dan who attempted to close up that dead rail to no avail?
That\'s probably the best post you\'ve written.
You\'re much better when you\'re not sarcastic. lol
My biggest problem with Hoppertunity is I don\'t think he classes up with the field. Number-wise his top is good enough to throw him in with the other contenders, but I\'ve got a problem seeing him as a Derby winner.
From bottom up, his 1st race stablemate Bayern beats him soundly, but his supporters can point to his gain in the stretch. The horses in that race have proven to be nothing special. The next race he breaks his maiden over a field that again is nothing special. Then he goes to Louisiana where he loses by 7 lengths to Intense Holiday and by a length and a half to Vicar\'s in Trouble. He does beat Commanding Curve by 1.25 lengths, but that one has been off almost 3 months. Now he goes to Arkansas where I believe is the worst group of 3 YOs prepping for the Derby, gets his decent speed figure while showing gameness in a roughly run race beating Tapiture and Ride On Curlin, who then go on to get their behinds whipped by Danza, the new face in town who was eligible for a NW2. Tapiture, the horse he beat by 1/2 length in the Rebel runs a mediocre 4thin the Ark. Derby. Next it\'s back home to So Cal, where he runs far behind California Chrome in an agreed, not all out effort. He does beat Candy Boy who has yet to attain a sheet # that makes him competitive in the Derby.
So outside of the tomato can he beat in his maiden & Rebel wins, he hasn\'t finished ahead of anyone of consequence. Meanwhile, he\'s been beaten by California Chrome, Intense Holiday & Vicar\'s in Trouble, the 1st 2 soundly.
If you\'re right I\'ll tip my hat to you and gladly see you collect your 10/1 (which from what I\'ve seen of him should be 20/1, but Baffert/Smith will depress your odds), which I will be contributing to with my win bets on 2 other horses-one of which you can poke more holes in than I\'ve just done with Hoppy.
Thanks for the baptism guys. I appreciate it. I might chime in later.
#1 welcome to the JB/miff/jimbo66/etal forum. Only one we\'re missing is Ken Sherman.
#2 Prepare to get your ears boxed on occasion.
#3 NEVER, EVER say that Zenyatta was better than Rachel Alexandra.
#5 Prepare to have Mike Smith impaled those half dozen times a year he gives a horse a wide trip. LOL
#4 Prepare to be dazzled by the absolute brilliance of the majority of the players in this forum. That\'s a fact.
#5 Stick around for the Derby insights by mjellish, Michael D. and a handful of really great TGenerates.
My hit rate on the Derby is about 1 in 4, so there\'s a 75% chance I\'m going to be all wet myself by the time they cross the finish line. I\'ve only hit the Derby 2 straight years once & I\'ve been playing over 40 years and I hit last year, so you can take anything I say on this year\'s Derby with a grain of salt.
Ten furlongs shouldn\'t hurt him and it might help.You can\'t say that about more than a handful of horses in this Derby.
He\'s trained well in Kentucky and while I don\'t see him running a new top I think he has a chance to get back close to his Rebel.How that\'ll stack up in here depends on his draw/trip.
Good Luck
Wise Dan did lose at CD on a disgusting \"dead speed\" track, but it wasn\'t in the BC Classic. It was in June, on the Stephen Foster card. I am pretty sure it was Ron the Greek that beat him.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wise Dan did lose at CD on a disgusting \"dead
> speed\" track, but it wasn\'t in the BC Classic. It
> was in June, on the Stephen Foster card. I am
> pretty sure it was Ron the Greek that beat him.
Good memory, it was Ron the Greek coming from dead last to nail him.
I\'m referring to the BC sprint that Big Drama won.....pretty sure he was on that dead rail. Someone correct me if that\'s inaccurate
Pretty sure Wise dan wasn\'t in the race, wouldn\'t stake my life on it. , but would bet s lot on it...
I would have lost that bet. Just watched the replay. He was in the race. On the rail
Darn, I was getting ready to make the bet Jimbo; at least then, I could have said I cashed at least once this week. Think he was like 6th or 7th with Bejerano up. Good luck this weekend!
Not sure I\'d call it disgusting. Crazy tracks are what makes the game interesting. Today and the next time.
Crazy tracks make my wife and mother in law as effective as handicapping as I am
People that are spending hours analyzing and paying top dollar for data, don\'t want bullshit aberrational tracks.
I could buy lottery tickets if I wanted pure random
Not a fan of CDI Management in general and can\'t see why any gambler could be but what track in the U.S plays more fair on a consistence basis then Churchill Downs? I would like to know opinions on it? Not to mention it has a record of being a overall safe racing surface for horses. Not a highway like SA, Gulf, Lone Star, and Sun. And I am sure Keeneland will be added to that highway list by the end of next spring once again. I even think Belmont is a big time speed type track even though it\'s not close to those mentioned above.
I mean it has it\'s days like every surface but overall I think it plays quite fair day in, day out.
Louisville,
I know this is very sarcastic, but Churchill playing fairest day in day out, is in the same category as Rosario being a passive, strangle rider and being run out of California
It is well documented that CD blew 3 major events In a row, two breeders cups and a derby, with a dead rail, dead speed surface.
Santa had one day of the breeders cup with a bias this year, not both. Saturday was extremely fair.
As for Belmont being a speed highway, that is silly.
Jimbo, if your so smart then why don\'t you pick up on this and handicap knowing accordingly? I mean use the edge you see as a handicapper and go with it. My god please tell me you realized how the poly played and adjusted right? I mean the only people that wouldn\'t say ok the rail is dead let me consider that when I bet or the poly plays like turf ok let me consider that when I bet is someone that just looks at a number and says this is the fastest horse he should be the winner. The fastest horses doesn\'t win nearly as much as we want them to. And as for Belmont I am guessing your a NY homer so whatever... Your not going to tell me Belmont is a more fair surface then Saratoga bias wise. As for crap Aqu I don\'t pay attention enough to it, I wouldn\'t play that place in the winter if someone was paying for my bets.
Just we are clear speed track doesn\'t have to mean wire to wire every race...
I never used the would passive... Do not put words in my mouth. He wasn\'t run out of CA I said he left foe the east coast and really started killing them with winning. Once again you sound like Fox News the way you put words in people\'s mouths sure that\'s not you Sean Hannity behind that computer? He is a better come from behind jock then gate jock. That was my point.
Nice ride he put on tapiture btw after i made that comment about him.
Louisville
U should try to learn something from the board. When I had your knowledge of the game I read more and posted less.
U said \"strangle rider\" referring to Rosario. I toned it down by saying passive.
Good luck in the pools
It is a tough game.
Lol it is a tough game we agree on that, but man it\'s the best game out there!! Good luck.
Don\'t forget 2006 BC when CD had a GOOD rail and every dirt race was won by the 1 horse! Street Sense benefited then and next years Derby same thing.
From what I remember, when there is rain the rail is good (Mine that bird, super saver) when it\'s dry it gets ugly.
No not really. 2006 was fast and so was 2007 Derby. This is why Calvin has historically done so well at CD. There is often a golden rail. Except when there\'s a bad rail! He will test it Friday and then we will know.
First 3 races today won by inside speed. Maybe they are reading this board.
Different track today.
Good....
reports that main track at CD was sealed before first race despite no precipitation.