A classic quote from Kent D. in the DRF that pretty much says it all about Horse Racing\'s version of Barry Bonds:
\"I thought I was done on the second turn, but Bobby Frankel horses just don\'t quit.\"
Chris
Good Luck to T-Graph in the feature at Aqueduct Sunday. Some graded stakes black type would certainly improve the value of U.K. Trick. She looks like she wants the distance.
I reviewed the Fla. Derby day in the Red Board. I was very surprised T-Graph did not have that Fountain of Youth as a clear top for Read the Footnotes. I back doored a bet believing it was, though I\'ve certainly learned its better to be lucky than good. I know this borders on proprietary matter, but is anyone at T-Graph inclined to discuss the variants and possible \"break offs\" for the Fountain of Youth card? My sense is that you did not make the variant difference between one and two turn races as large as I thought it to be and that you may have factored a track that was speeding up on FOY day. Am I mistaken?
I still have to analyze the Fla. Derby card but I do know that Suave ran faster than Friend\'s Lake. I scared myself on that bet the only horse I put over Value Plus was Friend\'s Lake, but I liked him. I liked that Spend a Buck mare mother of his and I liked the race two back and I knew he acted up horribly before the Holy Bull. He did again yesterday and I was cringing watching it because he was my exotics value maker.
Tenatively, my concerns about Value Plus not really wanting that distance were validated, but I had to bet Pletcher with the day he was having. I let him get away with Newfoundland later though. I\'m still waiting to view the Red Board and see what T-Graph says. There was a day when I would have bet RTF yesterday. I would have been all over him in first in exotics keys. And I have to say the lessons I\'ve learned here have been invaluable to finding race opportunity, (When I can remove my bias to apply them). Still without the back door perfecta I would have lost for the day. I made some bets early with a \"two turn speeding up\" theory and it wasn\'t validated. The Caiman bet was based on that theory.
I still think RTF is a good horse, but I think his FOY took the starch out of him. he was only beaten 4 lengths, so he could be of value next time. However the possibility exists that just like Value Plus he was struggling with that last 1/16th.
Post Edited (03-14-04 04:11)
The quote by Kent D. was concerning the El Camino Real Derby in particular but the reason I brought it up is that I think it applies in general with regards to the trainer mentioned. Even the riders notice that Frankel horse\'s don\'t tire in the stretch the way a \"normal\" horse would tire (or even the way Frankel horses used to tire 5 years ago). Sort of like the way Barry Bonds hits the ball harder than a \"normal\" ballplayer does (and harder than he used to hit it 5 years ago).
Chris
I read a similar quote (I think from Jose Santos) last year about During (a Baffert trainee).
One of my theories in playing the Derby is that breeding is no longer as important as it once was (and is overemphasized by the betting public), because enhanced medication (or whatever) allows many horses to overcome the distance limitations of their sires. That\'s helps explain recent winning sires like Distorted Humor and Our Emblem.
When Baffert took over the training of War Emblem, I remember reading a quote that War Emblem had reacted well \"to our feeding program.\"
Of course, to take a more balanced view, Bold Ruler had distance limitations, and no one smirks at Secretariat\'s performances. Maybe the key is the dam side.
In any event, my theory led me to play Read The Footnotes in the first futures pool. That play doesn\'t look as good to me this morning as it did before the Florida Derby, although maybe he needed to take a step backward. The distance breeding of Friends Lake is hard to question.
If you stay tuned in here Bit, you\'re gonna learn quite a lot about the bounce theory. It\'s been the part of my education I\'ve had the most difficulty coming to terms with. I wasn\'t exposed to it until I first bought T-Graph and even after that I\'ve tried to ignore it, especially when I was high on a horse and needed him to top my exotics. But I\'ve studied and I\'ve tried to pay close attention to when and where its happened. Its always gonna be a tough call. No one can fully project it. They can bounce when they\'ve won in hand by 5 lengths and then they may not. Ultimately its the number, the horse\'s history and the odds which influence the call. I was pretty confident RTF was gonna bounce so I went after him with conviction. I got one back from T-Graph for all the times they told me my horse was gonna go rubber and I didn\'t believe them.
lol
CtC
CTC -
Although I\'m new to posting here, I\'m pretty familiar with the bounce theory and opposing views. I\'ve developed my own method for incorporating the probability of a \"bounce\" into my handicapping. Although I have RTF at 14/1 in the first futures pool, I didn\'t play him yesterday at even money. (I had him as playable at a bit above 2/1, but wasn\'t holding my breath.)
As your earlier posts suggest, one might question whether RTF was a classic \"bounce\" candidate yesterday. According to both TG and Bris, he had merely replicated his Remsen effort (2yo top) in the Fountain of Youth. Of course, Beyer has a different view.
Bit, my bad on ur bounce acumen. I assume new posters come in the way I did. Bounceless...lol
I\'m interested in what Thorograph has to say about my variant and broken off races question for GP on 2/14, but I would think the results of the Florida Derby tend to indicate either I got lucky or Beyer was right. Then again, maybe a Beyer 113 is the equivalent to a T-Graph -0, 2. It may be.
The answer may be hidden for awhile, its important to note that the three horses that finished in front of RTF he had not faced before, other than the aborted N.Y. Race.
Post Edited (03-14-04 11:06)
CTC -
Don\'t sell yourself short. Regardless of what else you did, coming up with Friends Lake at 35/1 as a key in your exotics wasn\'t just luck. I note that you gave him a favorable mention in your overview of the race.
I didn\'t do anything particularly adventurous with 2/14 GP. I always split 1 and 2 turn races (more on this when we put the expo presentation up here soon), but on this day the routes were not slow to any extreme degree. The track got faster as the day went on (watered before 1st, 4th, 7th, 10th), but not all that much.
We had the Remsen (and the other 2 turn races on THAT day) faster than other figure makers did, which is why we didn\'t have RTF jumping to a new top in the FTY. Michael D posted about that day before, and our figures for that day seem to be holding up pretty well (like with RTF\'s FTY).
Kudos to John Chance who came in here Friday and said \"Read The Footnotes is Trust N Luck\".
Interesting
The DRF had the one turn variant an \"07\" the two turn variant a \"14\". Which is roughly 7 lengths difference. You\'re implying that yours was much less. I have to admit I\'m not up on recent GP pars, but I\'ve watched 10,000 races there and a 1:21:2 is as rare as Osama bin Laden, while a 1:42 and change, is as common as detainees at Guantanamo. What is also rare are fractions that go 21:1 and 43 and change. That is cooking, Hallandale ain\'t Hollywood. I believe that the variant is sometimes revealed in the fractions as much as the final time and granting that these were developing 3 year olds none of the sprinters had ran the fractions they ran on FOY day. NONE. (I take that back Deputy Storm had run as fast at 6 marks and less on wet tracks - FOY day of course he was going seven marks.)
I looked for John Chance\'s \"RTF is this years Trust n\' Luck\" comments. I didn\'t see them, he must have made a personal visit. I don\'t recall Trust and Luck winning graded stakes at two and three at different tracks. I don\'t recall him beating a horse that had emerged as the leading West Coast equine and fighting tooth and nail down the stretch to prevail on heart with the leading East coast equine. If he was saying \"RTF is not gonna run well this race because he\'s not good or fast enough with this crowd and that those respective -0, 1/2\'s were inaccurate because other horses in the race, that had run lesser figures, were actually faster or would improve more on Florida Derby day\" all I can say is that Luck beats Skill every single time. It could be he was saying that like Trust n\' Luck, RTF is gonna bounce off his big FOY effort and I agreed with that.
I hope RTF stays sound. A real big effort can knock a horse goofy and I think it possible that the damage has been done for RTF and that regardless of his 10 mark abilities he won\'t be able to show them by May 1st. But if he stays sound, I\'m confident the actual performance RTF gave in the FOY will be revealed in races later this year.
On your scale I would have anticipated RTF\'s FOY to be at least a negative 2.
Congrats on U.K Trick\'s graded Black Type, I know you wanted more but shes got room to move forward and it was a start.
Post Edited (03-14-04 20:05)
that remson day intrigues me for a lot of reasons. i had a big bet on la reina, and my condifence level was about as high as it gets. a tough loss.......... interesting Fla derby. i was very high on FL going in, and when i saw them pass by in the post parade, i was amazed at how much longer a horse FL was than RTF. RTF has a lot of stamina breeding on the dam side, but the horse looked like a sprinter to me. not that FL ran all that great, but the horse will keep running all day. I\'m not sure he has enough agility to win from behind in a 18 horse field, but if they train a bit more speed into him, he could be a factor.
Michael, I don\'t profess to have the greatest eye for conformation and computer viewing of the horses is the worst thing about betting away from the track, but from what I\'ve seen of RTF he is certainly not built like a sprinter. But I will grant that Friends Lake is built like a greyhound. Here are the raw fractions from Fla. Derby Day:
3yo, MSW, 22.34, 45.34, 1:10.72, 1:23.80
3yo, NW1X, 22.02, 44.30, 1:09.77, 1:23.50
3yo, MSW, 22.38, 45.56, 1:10.81, 1:23.19
3yoF 150K, 21.85, 44.61, 1:09.26, 1:22.97
3yo, MSW, 23.03, 47.58, 1:13.06, 1:39.12, 1:52.23
3yo, NW1X, 23.29, 48.12, 1:12.83, 1:38.21, 1:50.97
3yo,1000K, 23.44, 47.05, 1:11.54, 1:37.60, 1:51.38
3yo, 150K, 22.18, 44.64, 1:09.40, 1:22.87
4up, NW1X 22.95, 46.23, 1:10.59, 1:16.94
3up, 100K 24.05, 48.27, 1:12.06, 1:37.01, 1:43.26
Now FOY Day:
1 -3yo, NW2X, 1mile 70 yards, :24.33, :48.84, 1:12.82, 1:42.40
3 -3yo, MSW, 9 marks :23.62, :48.10, 1:12.94, 1:39.39, 1:52.66
4 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :21.45, :43.48, 1:09.17, 1:22.86
6 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :22.18, :44.61, 1:08.91, 1:21.42
7 -4up, NW3X, 6.5 marks :21.93, :44.16, 1:09.14, 1:16.19
8 -3yo Fillies, 100K Stake, 6 marks :21.37, :44.00, :56.00, 1:08.85
9 -3yo, NW1X, 9 marks :23.43, :47.29, 1:12.02, 1:38.04, 1:50.67
10-3yo, 150K Stake, 7 marks :21.68, :43.73, 1:08.96, 1:22.23
11-3yo, 250K Stake, 8.5 marks :23.97, :47.70, 1:11.21, 1:36.16, 1:42.71
12-3yo, MSW, 6 marks :22.16, :45.14, :57.53, 1:10.09
For FOY day you have these fractions:
Less than :22 - 5
Less than :45 - 5
Less than :44 - 2
Less than 1:09- 3
For Derby Day you have these fractions:
Less than :22 - 1
Less than :45 - 3
Less than :44 - 0
Less than 1:09- 0
I submit the following:
1. That the cards for the most part were roughly equivalent. (Granted Limehouse, Second of June and others missed this card.)
2. FOY Day sprint fractions were significantly faster than Derby day sprint fractions
3. That although the sprints were slower on Derby Day the route races were run in roughly more equal times until the Florida Derby and \"Skip Away\" when it would/could be argued (to fit the \"RTF ran into better horses\" model) that the track \"slowed down\". For RTF to have lost the Florida Derby on the time of his last race he would have had to run the final 1/16 in 8.68 seconds which is the equivalent of an extrapolated quarter in 34:72 seconds.
4. That its possible that Intimdator, Summer Book & Swingforthefences bounced somewhat on FOY day efforts that may have been bigger than they appeared to be to some of the figure makers.
TGJB has stated T-Graph plotted the track speeding up on FOY day. It would be interesting to note if they plotted similarly for Derby day. RTF\'s Fountain of youth smashes the Skip Away horses and there were some good ones in there despite my bad mouthing of Newfoundland.
Lastly, Jerry implied something that bothered me with his \"track watering\" comments. Its in the thread, look it up if you\'re inclined, but the gist of it was that since the track was only watered slightly four times FOY day the track \"sped up\". Its almost as if they are working the mere fact of watering into their calculations about track speed. I don\'t think that can be done with any degree of science. It seems to me that changing track conditions can only be hypothesized on multiple race results and that if your sample is only one or two races at that distance due to sprints and turf racing making up the bulk of the card, that can be very hard to do. It would be interesting to know what the T-Graph figure would be for RTF\'s FOY without breaking the race from the other distance races that day. I\'m guessing a negative 2 to 3.
Now the anecdotal evidence:
Jerry Bailey said RTF needed more urging and wasn\'t there when he asked him to run hard. (The only jockey I listen to is Jerry Bailey, he doesn\'t mince words most times, but even then I will grant you that a Jockey\'s opinion is not the key)
I still think the injuries from the FOY tend to indicate how tough the race was.
3 horses from the FOY contested the Fla.Derby: RTF, Sir Oscar & Frisky Spider. In the FOY, RTF beat them respectively by 14.5 and 15.5 lengths. In the Fla. Derby he beat them by 9.5 and 10.5 lengths. Whats interesting to note is that among themselves the performance between SO and FS stayed static, but that they each gained 5 lengths on RTF. (Don\'t get me wrong I know they may have improved, Sir Oscar bled in the FOY, but I find it interesting that the beaten lengths are what they are.)
Conclusion:
The thing thats so difficult about speed figures is that because the horses aren\'t machines and are dropping into different races or improving or going off form you can\'t ever really say for sure whether a horse is a Trust n\' Luck or a much better horse that put out a tremendous effort that got overlooked due to track anamolies. But there is certainly the chance that projecting changing track speeds can result in a figure that skews the actual effort of a horse.
If John Chance really believes that RTF is a Trust n\' Luck, he needs to immerse himself a bit more into the detail of the game.
CtC
Post Edited (03-15-04 08:51)
Two interesting pieces of information that I would like to share without mentioning names:
The connections of FRIENDS LAKE were hoping for a good showing (hopefully 3rd); they had all kinds of problems settling this horse down over the last 2 months. Terrific job by Migliore getting him settled; that horse will give you one burst and one burst only; Migliore saved ground and timed it perfectly; what also helped is that the pace came back to him. VALUE PLUS was more impressive than I thought he would be (Pletcher\'s horses, like FRANKEL,also don\'t quit ...see LIMEHOUSE in TAMPA) but he looks way too aggressive to be a KY DERBY winner.
MORE IMPORTANTLY: There are rumors that RTF bled in his last workout....I did not see that published anywhere, but a reliable source says it\'s true. If it is, why did Violette run???...if it is, RTF is toast until furthur notice....see SIR OSCAR if you disagree.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
1-- Much more on moisture content/track speed relationship when we put up the expo presentation, but yes there is one, and no, we do not make a mechanical adjustment for \"track watered\"-- there are too many interlocking variables, like soil content, humidity, water content when the day starts (the same track can get faster or slower with more water depending on soil content, cushion depth, and how much water was in it before that), sun, wind, etc. But we started to keep track of it a while back, because days with irregular watering (which turns out to be lots of places) mean variations in water content and often track speed throughout the day. So far GP seems to be one of the few that speeds up with less water, but I have no idea of what that means. Yet. And possibly ever, unless we start getting race by race moisture content readings. Since we can\'t even get the weights of the horses I\'m not holding my breath.
2-- On 2/14 there was a 7-8 o\' clock wind throughout the day (think of looking down at the track, with the clubhouse turn being 3 o\'clock), which made for faster sprint fractions and final times, slower 2 turn fractions. Haven\'t seen 3/13 yet.
We did have the track for the FOY faster than for the other routes. But we didn\'t pull the race loose (the track was getting faster late in the card, in this case both sprints and routes), and the race itself was solid.
3-- John\'s comment about Trust N Luck was about the similarity in their sheets going into the Florida Derby, not about the ability of either. The idea being that showing a LOT of ability early cooked both. We\'ll see.
Wind speed? I didn't consider wind speed. If my memory is accurate the clubhouse turn at Hallandale is the east side of the track. I know you can see the high-rise beachfront buildings when you look 3 o'clock. A seven thirty wind would be coming off the mainland. I remember most of the strong winds come off the water there. I'm assuming you mean a 2 o'clock wind or one "out of" or "from" 2 o'clock. Otherwise, assuming it was sufficiently strong to be a factor, the sprinters would have been running into it on the backstretch and even more directly into it on the turn, would they not? In other words they would have been running into it on their first two fractions. Yet it was the early fractions that were quick looking on 2/14. I have to assume you mean a wind out of the east. How an east wind equates to slower two turn fractions until the FOY I'll leave for others to ponder. Though I do believe energy allocated early to fight wind is energy not in the tank later to take advantage of it. The two turn fractions were slowish but for the FOY.
Re: Sprints getting faster on the FOY card, here is the first sprint, won by a cheap horse 9K that had just broken maiden in a 45K claimer on his fourth attempt:
4 -3yo, NW1X, 7 marks :21.45, :43.48, 1:09.17, 1:22.86
10-3yo, 150K Stake, 7 marks :21.68, :43.73, 1:08.96, 1:22.23
Just above is the sprint won by Limehouse in which the fractions were set by Deputy Storm a fairly expensive horse 340K that had won The Tyro and finished 2nd in the Sapling after setting the fractions.
The slowest sprint of the day below was the final race. Though, I believe if he stays sound you'll find the winner of this race will turn out to be the best of the Storm Cat grandkids that ran that day. I'm not sure how these results equate to the track speeding up on FOY day.
12-3yo, MSW, 6 marks :22.16, :45.14, :57.53, 1:10.09
The only route race that appeared out of line in my opinion was the FOY. But I don't think it was because the track sped up. I don't understand what you meant by stating that you did not break the FOY from the other routes despite the fact the track got faster. That is lost on me.
I'm glad you don't make watering adjustments. The variables you spoke of were my concern. I'm not sure you have the equipment to take moisture readings but if you do I hope you can find a way for the tracks to see it's worth their while for you to measure moisture. It could be provided to the grounds crew for maintenance purposes and made known to horsemen for safety considerations. Maybe that's what they are afraid of.
By the way, you have been very courteous in regard to the subject matter and I\'m sure you understand that assuming you\'re right you are not gonna convince me that I backed into my Fla. Derby score any more than I already did.
:)
CtC
I\'m not trying to convince you of anything, least of all that a race you hit throwing out the favorite, and using a 35-1 shot, was a bad idea. I used the winner, but not the second horse-- Pletcher is killing me, again in the Next Move.
An 8:00 wind means going towards 8:00, behind them on the long straightaway for sprints.
What I meant when I said I didn\'t cut the race loose was that the track in general was speeding up late in the card, not just for that race. I had it almost 2 points faster in the 9th than the first (both 2 turns), another 2 1/2 faster for the FOY (11th). The sprints got about 2 points faster between the 4th and the 12th.
I don\'t know about other track supts, but Porcelli takes moisture content readings-- unfortunately not race by race, which is what would be needed to really work with this stuff. One of the scientists I mentioned in my expo presentation (Mick Peterson) is embarking on a large study of track surfaces, and may be taking those and other readings. He is the one who said \"I suspect that your information regarding the performance of horses, even given the other uncontrolled variables, may be the best data available\", so I offered him our data to use in a blind test. So far he has shown no interest, but I\'m going to ask him again.
You \"used the winner\" Jerry? As in no WIN bet? At 35-1? I\'ve heard they have WIN betting at a lot of tracks now. Charles Bukowski (some great track stories) said \"the only bet is to WIN.\" He meant at 35-1, but he was often drunk.
I\'ve gotten better at this kind of thing. I could see not playing Sonny\'s Bruno to win at 9/2, but this is ridiculous. HP
I made a 4 horse tri box, doubling up with the other three-- I didn\'t love the winner, was mostly playing against Pletcher and Tapit. Alan liked the winner much more than I did, and of course didn\'t bet him either. It\'s the single best betting system I have ever seen-- horses Alan likes and doesn\'t bet.
Sonny\'s Bruno??? You went way back to get that one, and I forgot you were there that day. May have blocked it out-- winning that stake ultimately led to my losing that (big) client, believe it or not. But that is not a story I\'m going to tell here.
pletcher\'s horse did quit (last 1/8 in :14 with the wind at his back).
...... FL is much more than a one burst horse, did you notice his 2 yr old stakes win? he was close to a decent pace over a dull track for the entire mile (while earning a very good 2yr old #). i don\'t know how kimmel plans on training the horse up to the derby, but if they plan on finishing first in an eighteen horse field, i would crank him up a bit (see Atswhat... from last year).
Personally, I believe the moisture content riddle is the last piece of the puzzle. I think with accurate moisture content in hand for the respective tracks you will be able to see how the times in a 5,000 claiming race are impacted by varying degrees of moisture in the track. To my knowledge your T-Graph is the only entity that has stated how important this is. I think you\'re \"break off\" positions and generally reliable figs are because you are solidly on the trail of the last great variable in accurate performance figures.
I have to say I suspected you made the FOY 2.5 to 3 points faster than the other races. By that statement I\'m assuming you mean that you adjusted the figs up for the entrants and that without the adjustment they would have been assigned a performance figure 2.5 points faster than what they were given, is that correct? In other words without the adjustment for race 11 RTF would have had a negative 3.
Sounds like you had Stake and U.K. Trick hooked up. Pletcher has the golden touch right now. When a trainer is on a day like he was Derby Day, you can\'t leave him go when his horse on P.P.s looks competitive. I\'m still kicking myself for not having Newfoundland in the Skip Away. I was on Supah Blitz...lol I bad mouthed him here and I remember thinking \"you can\'t bet on that horse, you mouthed off bad about him\"...lol But back to the subject, U.K. ran good, if she gets a bit faster or gets a break like Friends Lake got she\'ll win that Black Type.
I want to hear the Sonny Bruno story that can\'t be told. :)
CtC,
\"I was on Supah Blitz...lol I bad mouthed him here and I remember thinking \"you can\'t bet on that horse, you mouthed off bad about him\"...lol\"
If a Silver Charm goes in the starting gate on Derby Day and he has a line that looks like Preachinatthebar\'s will most likely look like. I\'m betting him.
re: Michael D.\'s point--
That\'s exactly what Kimmel is good at. He can crank a horse up off the bench with the best of them. I think it\'s a strategy (training up to the Derby) that suits his style well. S
Silver,
Did you notice the end of the San Felipe? Now I am keeping in mind that he was gettin six pounds from the Black colt, but when St.Averil came to him, I don\'t that even past the wire he ever got by. Did that remind you of anything? :)
I read how Preachin got his name. There is a bartender in the clubhouse at Santa Anita named Nola. When she serves the customers drinks she dispenses a little bible verse with the libation. She was nicknamed \"Holy Nola\" by the trainers and owners there. One of them took her nickname for their filly. That filly is a mare now and her 2001 foal is Preachinatthebar. I\'ve never been to Santa Anita, despite many chances to go. But the next time a trip comes up I just may accept and if I do one of the \"must do\'s\" of the trip will be a drink served by Holy Nola.
Then again, I\'d have to listen to Trevor Denman
lol
If you look at the THORO #\'s for PREACHIN\', they support a solid 3yo coming up to the big dance the right way. If horses like that paid $19 and change all the time I wouldn\'t have to work.
He\'s game as hell and displayed a new dimension as a presser as opposed to a grinder. I\'m still going to keep an eye on Baffert\'s other Silver Charm offspring (ODDS ON). Bobby B will have that one cranked for the next dance. The San Felipe was a needed 2 turn conditioner only.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Bob in the Bloodhorse regarding Preachin:
\"He\'s still not there yet, but he\'s getting there. We took the training wheels off and now he\'s out there on his own.\"
I\'m not sure the training wheels came off Preachin as much as the Restrictor Plates stayed on the trainer. This horse has nowhere near the number of bullet works most Baffert horses have. However I believe he will very soon and that is ok because there is a lot of work to be done to win on the First Saturday in May.
As far as Wimbleton goes he looks good but I read where he has a lot of speed on the bottom side. He also (not disclosing anything because its in The Race of the Week Archives) had a previous top of 8 prior to the La Derby. He will need to develop to about zero??? to win the Ky Derby. That\'s an awful lot to ask in such short amount of time.
As far as Silver Charm the sire goes there was a point in his spring three year old campaign where he wasn\'t totally right and things were looking very iffy for the real Silver Charm. Bob had some of Charlie\'s Boys (yeah that Charlie) come by and work on him and the rest, as they say, is history.
I love that horse so much I have a Ky Derby winners circle picture that hangs in my living room personally signed by Bob.
Wimbledon had a 4 1/4 top before the La Derby, went forward almost 3 points that day.
My mouth will not open any wider and I have run out of feet over the last 10 days.