This Board certainly is interesting and entertaining this time of year. Since I play the Australian and Asian tracks at night I have time for creative thinking late at night, early in the morning.
Today I have decided to comment on some of the boards most prolific and colorful posters. As a handicapper I will endeavor to psyche out there derby strategy and qualities that endear them to me.
No offense is meant and hopefully I get a few winners.
TGJB - Our valued host. The method man. My guess TGJB relishes a derby with many contenders. The more uncertainty the more demand for his product. However that is not a fact, because the study is yet to be done and the data source is too small a sample to be meaningful. Eclectic musical tastes, concise, has a short list of derby contenders comprised of big figure horses with good race spacing sees contenders holistically. Will be trying to take down horizontals.
CovelJ70 - An owner, definitely a celebrity, somewhat of a kool aid drinker, a Wall Streeter with family values, great social skills and a master salesman, masquerading as an analyst. While he entertains and talks a good game his essential strategy appears to be inside information. Go figure! He depends on the fundamentals and expert opinions. Value conscious, committed to his opinions will be looking to couple some pricey horses with his key Wicked Strong in the verticals. Insurance play Wicked Strong with the obvious figure horses in the pic threes and pick fours.
Miff - A black and white kinda personality. Astute and relies on facts has little use for speculation. An industry expert of sorts. Really knows the NY scene. He\'s a bit of an enigma sometimes its hard to know when his sarcasm is wit or insult. I believe his strategy will be to keep it super simple. The Oaks Derby double with the Assmussen filly to a couple of Derby possibles. Probably doesn\'t play into the parimutuel pools. May pass derby (as he\'s said) and slam this post.
Jimbo66 - Very comprehensive approach. Considers speed, trip, pace, pattern, breeding and looks for subtle clues ignored by others that may signal peak effort is coming. His interest in SamRaat is probably a price performance thing. A proven performer @ double digit odds? As long as he trains well up to the derby. Since he is getting a price with SamRaat he can spread in various directions. I can often relate to Jimbo because he sometimes stays up late and thinks Midnight Hawk is a miler. Watches races and incorporates on track appearance into his opinions.
Ritchiebee - Great sense of humor and all star contributor. I\'m guessing Ritchie will be playing a trio possibly a quartet of stamina oriented derby contenders and looking to take down the pic 4. I like the strategy he\'s sure to get some prices and a big score if one of his get there first. He\'s due and I wish him good luck.
Treadhead - I believe one of the pace oriented contributors here, and, as such, a believer in the symmetry of pace and speed. This idea leads him to question or doubt some #\'s even though a TG purist at heart. Has little patience with those unaware of the nuances which guide his decision making. His strategy will be to key on a small group of contenders which have in common a justifiable poor effort. I\'m guessing win bets on those.
AJKreider - I regard this gentleman as a master of local knowledge. Earlier this year he helped me with some obvious track biases. So I don\'t expect him to be backing Vicars In Charge maybe Intense Holiday and another whose name I\'d like to know. Probably win bet(s).
Well Sunrise is about here and my eyes are blurring and my typing is slurred. I\'ll leave you all to figure out Bafferts next move? How could they take down Rosie?
Bottom Line I simply want to acknowledge some and thank all of the individuals whose contributions make this board the special place it is!
Funny post.
could I suggest an edit, with regards to Covello.
I think he is \"definitely a celebrity\", but \"somewhat a kool aid drinkier\", as oopposed to your \"somewhat a celebrity\"..... :)
(and I don\'t like Samraat....)
This is good stuff, funny you mentioned the pace because I\'m really struggling with that, especially with the constantly changing field.
It is my true belief (just an opinion, nothing to base it on) that Smith\'s ride on Palace Malice last year was the result of an attempt to think on the 3rd level:
1st level - there are a lot of E/EP speedballs in this race
2nd level - I\'d better not try for the lead in this race due to Level 1
3rd level - everyone else is thinking on level 2, so I\'m going to gun for the lead
Though it did not work for him, and hasn\'t worked for many others that happened to try this over the years, it still seems like jocks will attempt to try this. Trying to figure out who is thinking what is tough, however, as you can\'t even trust comments made in public at face value, as they may be an attempt to deceive.
Gonna be a tough call until we have a final field and PPs drawn. But the one thing I will say is, over the past 10-15 years, the horses that have run near 0s leading up to the derby and are able to duplicate good efforts are almost always the horses that run double digit pace figures for early and middle fractions and triple digit late pace figures.
Have been some exceptions, to be sure, but in general if there is a pattern to look for, I want someone who looks good on TG, has excellent workout reports, has female stamina breeding, and has a pace profile that leads me to believe there\'s a good chance he will pair/top in the derby. Problem with this year is, not sure I\'m going to get slam dunks in these categories and it may be time to think outside the box a little.
I\'m glad you enjoyed my caricatures. IMO, There is a horse that is likely going to be an unexpected pace factor and will surprise most, especially Jerry Bailey, yet Randy Moss may mention him.
This guy broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion beating 8 @ DMR including Bond Holder. He has had trouble getting started on more than one occasion duping casual observers into believing he is a deep closer. He isn\'t, he is E/P.
Yes he has been out finished a couple of times, but only by one rival. Nakatani is a flexible veteran very adept at working out a trip in close quarters. I project him to be one of the \"Get 1st Run Group.\" His path to CD is unconventional, and he dragged his owners and trainer kicking and screaming. Yet he has never done anything wrong except be unlucky enough to have had two bad starts/trips.
When you factor in his jump up switching surfaces to dirt voila a surprise dumb guys winner.
Edited, Thanks! I didn\'t even know one could edit. What a great tool. What mischief could be wrought.
I misinterpreted you comment to Covello regarding wishing he (Jim) or someone had seen Samraats work.
So I will continue reading your posts looking for new clues in case you don\'t go public, and you probably shouldn\'t go public, because ... oh I\'ll edit this later.