In the sire averages, do the route averages include both dirt and turf routes? If so, have you considered splitting out the dirt routes?
In the speed figures themselves (without giving away any proprietary information), do you take into account wind speed? I saw some discussion of this a while back, but it was never clear to me what you are doing, particularly with respect to winds that are blowing parallel to the stretch.
More generally (other than the introductory material dealing with ground loss, weight and trouble), is there a page on this website that gives non-proprietary specifics regarding what is (and is not) in the figures and averages?
The Introduction page spells out the factors we use to make figures. It says the \"effects of wind\" which is a short way of saying wind direction and velocity. So yes we do factor in wind speed. The online seminar, available as a link off the Introduction page, gives a much more detailed explanation our methodology.
A symbol sheet and legend is also available as a link off the Introduction page.
In the sire profile, route averages are based on routes, races 8 furlongs or longer, regardless of surface. Initially we considered splitting dirt and turf routes but decided against it. In the end we decided that distance was the sole criterion.
The above cited pages and seminar provides the non-proprietary specifics.
Feel free to query us if you have more questions.
TGAB -
Thank you for your responses to my questions. I had the impression that you might only be considering wind effects when the wind is at an angle to the stretch. I\'ll listen to the seminar.
Thank you also for running a very informative board. I\'ve been reading it for a while, before I decided to plunge in with my questions.
TGAB -
I\'ve just listened to the seminar on your methodology. My compliments. I thought I knew quite a bit about figure making from having read Beyer\'s book and having listened to some Ragozin introductory tapes years ago (forgive me, I was young), but I found your seminar quite educational and concise.
I do have one quibble on wind effects. The seminar says (paraphrasing here) that wind velocity has no effect in a one mile race on a one mile symmetrical oval, because the headwind at any given point on the track is offset by a tailwind at the opposite point on the other side of the track. I don\'t think that\'s quite true.
Wind resistance is a function of how fast a horse is moving through the air. Accordingly, a horse running 35 mph (slightly slower than 12 seconds per furlong) on a perfectly still day experiences the same force as if he were standing still in a 35 mph wind. When he is running into a 20 mph headwind, his airspeed is 55 mph (35+20). When he has the same 20 mph wind at his back, his airspeed is 15 mph (35-20).
One might think that, since the average of 55 mph and 15 mph is the same 35 mph that the horse would experience on a still day, the increased wind velocity has no net effect. However, that\'s not true because, as your seminar says, the effect of airspeed is geometric. Wind resistance is proportional to airspeed squared. The increase in wind resistance caused by increasing airspeed from 35 mph to 55 mph is greater than the decrease in wind resistance caused by reducing airspeed from 35 mph to 15 mph. Ignoring parts of the course where a horse is not running directly into or with the wind, my rough calculation is that a horse running in a 20 mph wind experiences approximately 30% more wind resistance than a horse running on a still day.
With that said, I\'m not sure how significant it all is. An increase in wind resistance of 30% might not be a big deal in the larger scheme of things and might be offset in part by adjusting the track variant.
BitPlayer,
Good observation.
Chris
I cringe every time I hear the word \"geometric\" used in this context, because I co-wrote that seminar, and the right word is exponential (I think).
Actually, the wind stuff is even more complicated than you are saying. I had a friend who had an interest in aeronautics, and who since became a meteoroligist, do our original formula. But you end up adjusting it by looking at the effect it is having on the figures, and it isn\'t that accurate because
1-- Both direction and speed are estimated by a guy looking at flags before and after the race-- during it he is watching the horses to do ground, and wind can gust or die down.
2-- There is a really big building right there bouncing wind all over the place, and it may not be reflected in what you see looking at the flags.
3-- If you want to get really technical about it, in your example the horses are spending more time running into the wind, simply because it is slowing them down.
Yet another reason to make race by race adjustments. Wind corrections are just a rough guide-- and don\'t get me started on Ragozin\'s use of interval readings from airports not located at the track.