CC is 2.6 to 1 to win derby with the defection of Cario Prince.
I love laying 3.5 to win 1 that he will not win derby. It seems that there are around 8 that are as fast and some have great looking patterns. A few other that are a tad bit slower with good patterns.
can i book that bet? lol
CC is now 2.25 to 1. To bet he does NOT win is 1 to 2.85.
I would love to split the difference. In my mind he has no more than a 20% chance of winning the race.
Just looked at Jerry\'s sheets. Interesting how CC got so fast in such a short time improving from some pretty weak numbers. Can you imagine what we would be thinking if his trainer\'s last name was Dutrow, Lake,O\'Neal or something like that?
Based on patterns and numbers of past winners, I would say the number of horses that can win this is less than 5.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Hopportunity backed up 3.25 points in his last?....seriously?
That cant be right. He backed up that far?
Do you believe it was a pair up?
Yeah, I don\'t get the questions about this.
SA was clearly not his favorite surface given the huge moveups in short time after leaving SA the first time.
He was already in the Derby, so no reason for Baffert to have him fully cranked.
And based on comments I saw, he was not ridden hard and may not have even been struck during the race, didn\'t appear to be from what I could see on the replay.
Not to mention the possibility for underlying injury going from no starts to zero in a route so quickly.
Plenty of reasons a backup of a few points makes sense.
Luckily, he just arrived at CD and we will get to see a workout over the track. Using this one will largely depend on his on-track appearance week of the race.
\"Plenty of reasons a backup of a few points makes sense\"
....not even close!
Ok he paired up. Why do you want to see this from the TGs? So that you can bet CC to bounce? Hop and Candys Boy to move forward?
Hopp backed in the SA derby, no argument.Do it any way you wish and at worse he gets app a 2. The reason he went back 3.25 points had to do with CC pairing a fig which was on the slow side in the SF.
Mike
Then you\'d have to give Candy Boy a 3 for the SA Derby which seems generous.
miff Wrote:
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> Hopp backed in the SA derby, no argument.Do it any
> way you wish and at worse he gets app a 2. The
> reason he went back 3.25 points had to do with CC
> pairing a fig which was on the slow side in the
> SF.
... not even close !!!
Thread,
You may want to debate the \"accuracy\" of speed/performance figs with someone else or face getting very embarrassed.
Have a nice day.
Mike
No worries here at all, as I find debating the \"accuracy\" of figures to be an extremely abstract concept to start with that is almost impossible to prove. There are several different shades of attempting to analyze this from:
1) Horses running over the same track that previously ran on the same track, but on different days
to
2) Horses coming from completely different tracks each going to a brand new track and facing each other.
In scenario 1, you might be able to make some sort of arguments about the accuracy figures in a debate over who got the variant more \"right\" on those individual days, but it still doesn\'t account for growth, improvement, or new ailments that may be impacting performance that day which means you are making an apples to oranges comparison in trying to justify if that horse\'s previous figure was really \"correct\" or not based on what happened today. Seems more like art than science.
In scenario 2, there\'s just too many variables in play to be able to make an argument that previous figures were \"wrong\" based on any results. If a horse ships to Churchill and hates it, it doesn\'t necessarily mean that all his previous good figures were \"wrong\". Conversely, if he ships there and loves it, it doesn\'t meant that all his previous slower figures were \"wrong\".
Or if a horse is trying a sloppy surface for the first time. Or a new distance/surface combo.
All that said, if you\'d like to go on the record about what figures you see you are certain are \"wrong\" and some detailed reasoning behind it other than taking annoying pot-shot drive-bys and simply saying \"not even close!\", I\'d love to hear more about this methodology and line of thinking and how you can come up with a firm opinion on how recently run figures are wrong before the next set of races has even been run.
Thread,
First mistake, no such thing as right or wrong, zero science.At best, you end up with reflective of performance or not reflective, quite subjective some of the time.
In measuring reflective or not reflective, you must at the very least, understand track speed, raw and adjusted,the different methodologies, the people who make figs and their differing style of creative license.For about 10 years, that\'s what I\'ve done.Waiting for the next race to be run to affirm a certain fig, sometimes yes, but a horses whole body of work,no.
At the end of the day,when a speed/performance figure does not reconcile amongst the top fig makers, I have a pretty good idea why.
By the way, if someone suggested that 1 + 1 equalled 3 would you believe them? Me, I don\'t believe figures that say that either.
To each his own.
If Candy Boy did indeed run a 3 his last race I would move him way up in my Kentucky Derby wagers. Coming off two long layoffs in a race that may not of been much more than a workout. He may relish Kentucky. I am curious as to what you all think of his breeding?
Pizza,
Even if you gave CB a 3, it\'s ground loaded and he was drubbed by 8 3/4 lengths by 2 rivals he will face in the SA Derby.At no point loomed a late threat in the Derby.Whats to like?
Breeding info at Downey profile/Romans dosage site good if you are into that.
Good Luck,
Mike
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Why do you think the SF should be faster? Of course, if you are correct CC will look incredible and Hopp will look much better also.
Mike I appreciate your comment. My question is do you really beleive that CB was cranked up for this race after having run once in 112 days? Wouldnt you beleive that his Derby effort should be much better. Baffert knew he was going to the derby with this horse so I doubt he was pushed much.
The other point I would ask (and trust me I know this doesnt mean much) but he sure has the look of a derby winner. Big, strong, in my opinion I think he has the frame of a Point Given (who did lay a derby egg i know). Let me know if you think I am crazy.
Pizza,
Look pretty much at the game as either fast or not. CB has never run fast so you have to expect a substantial forward move,which has been happening with this group lately.Nothing wrong with CB or Hopp physically(rare to see a smallish Baffert horse, he prefers big)
Not much of a believer in the not fully cranked excuse put out there by trainers before a race.The old trainer on/off switch is folklore,like Bigfoot imo.They\'ll intentionally run one who they think is short,time to time.More often than not, a kinda hard fought tightener is what they are looking for.
Mike
Miff,
I posted a question/observation last night regarding Vicar vs CC and got no replies. However, Jerry addressed it somewhat in some of his dialogue with you. Am I to deduct from some of your posts that you are in the CC camp? I am just curious. I do enjoy your posts.
If CC draws to my liking, I\'ll stand with him, if he draws poorly, I\'ll toss. Draw means not only where he starts from but who surrounds him, esp speed to his outside. Check the head on of ALL of his races and you will note he is not great in the gate all the time. A stutter step and pinch back for him makes him history. A clean break and his A game makes him very much the one to beat.
Good Luck,
Mike
Miff,
The draw is everything. All of us are debating the merits of figs and the speed of certain races and it could all be for naught after the draw. As of right now, I am leaning towards CC with a few others underneath. And I am somebody who never bets the favorite in the derby!
JP,
There is so much soft money in the derby pools, the odds seem less relevant.If you can cash the derby you will not receive underlaid value, esp in the exotics.
The Oaks/Derby DD this year looks a bit uninviting with the Oaks having a filly faster than all the colts in the derby.
miff,
I know all about the soft money in the pools. Anytime you can get $4 or more to show on logical horses it is remarkable. I always play the tri\'s and pick 4\'s. This year I may venture into the superfecta market. Someone is going to make money on this years Derby, might as well be us on this forum:)
After seeing a derby live (Lil E Tee) and a breeders cup classic at Churchill (Invasor) I dont think draw is very important. I understand in like every other race why it is sooo important but the facts are in the derby they have like 4 football fields to get the position they want. If you get hung out wide in the derby it is more due to a poor ride rather than post position in my opinion.
I don\'t entirely disagree with you. However, the 1 hole is not a good place to be in the 20 horse field. The stats back that up. Are you going to the Derby or cup this year?
What stats?
I cannot remember the exact website I read the data on, it was either drf or bloodhorse, but since the advent of the 20 horse fields it was something like 1 for 19? I read the article by one of their contributors, and this was perhaps 2008 or 2009. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Over 19 years, or 100 years, one for twenty would be average...
Interesting. Why does every talking head on tv, columnist and trainers make such a big deal out of being stuck down inside in the derby? The 20 post use to have the same perception until Big Brown won in 2008.
From 1975 to 2012, the 1 post was 1 for 37 on top, and hit the super 22% of the time, which ranked it 10th (might be lower, but I ran out of fingers). The 9, 12 and 14 posts came up with a donut for 37, the 17 is 0 for 35, and the 19 is 0 for 16. All of those posts, plus the 6, 11 and 15 have the lowest hit rates for the super. So, the 9 and 11 aren\'t particularly good, but the 10 has won 6 out of 37, and has a chart topping 41% hit rate in the super. The 20 post ranks second in the super at 38%, but that was with a limited 8 horse sampling. As is the case with so much of Derby data, evidence is all over the map. Bottom line is that you can get in trouble from any post, though some find the configuration of gate to the first turn to be detrimental for the rail horse, and others don\'t want to deal with possible ground loss from the far outside.
Wasn\'t I\'ll have another out of the 19?
Thanks for the good data moose.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Wasn\'t I\'ll have another out of the 19?
Yes. The data I was looking at was compiled prior to the 2012 Derby. I should have said 1975-2011. That would account for the 37 races in the sample. Way too many for my fingers and toes.
I only remember because I tossed him from the top spot, because \"nobody wins from out there\".
We see how that turned out.
When it comes to the Derby it appears that an outside post is no hindrance and possibly a good thing. Since 1995, 9 winners have started from the auxiliary gate (post 15-20). I would suspect that not getting buried inside in a 20 horse field is what makes the results counter-intuitive.....Ken
Slug Super Saver only recent derby winner to need 1w 1w trip. All other recent winners lost ground. MTB also 1w but tons best that day with huge last half mile run.
We actually ran this but aren\'t using it in the seminar. If you exclude the two dead rail Derbies, the ones that finished 1-4 averaged a half path better on saving ground than 5-8 and the rest.
He still had the best figure. Whole lotta \"2\"s that year, and his 1 was good enough.
If a horse lays over the field he can spot ground loss (Big Brown etc.). You see any indication that will happen this year?
TGJB
We certainly can agree to disagree. But \"yes\", California chrome lays over the field. He has to ship and get a reasonable trip. (Meaning no bad start, expecting some ground loss)
The co-second choice in this field, hoppertunity, was beat open lengths by a geared down California chrome. I call that laying over the field.
Jimbo-- the discussion was taking place in figure terms.
I would be pretty surprised if someone wins this Derby with a 4w4w trip, and there will be some. Average Derby aggregate ground loss (both turns combined) for first 4 finishers has been around 4.9.