Finally a great test of strong opinions.
Many have posted their certainty of Midnight Hawks inability to win at distances greater than a mile. Myself included.
Another discussion argues speed biased surfaces vs tiring tracks effects on brilliance.
So a test of a speed merchant vs unaccomplished foes at a questionable venue looms Saturday!
Got to admire Bafferts choice of races, $500K here and $1.5m that night @ CT.
I have to bet my mind so in an effort to create a life long memory - I\'ll invest in career maiden Irish whatever to win.
Tavasco
Yes, but not sure that midnight hawk winning means he can get the distance. That is an awfully common field. As one of the leaders of the \"midnight hawk is a miler at best\" camp, I have looked long and hard for a horse to bet against him with. I may do it, but it wil be a reach as it is a hungry field.
Now, if he wins while running a big figure. Then time to reconsider my view on him (and upgrade Chitu)
Jim
Yep, several things wrong with the comparisons.
The only reason we\'ve gotten into those discussions is due to the extremely tight grouping of the ability of several horses, and attempts to separate them on some sort of criteria.
When youre Big Brown and 4pts faster than everyone already, then it doesn\'t really matter much.
The other issue is (and I absolutely never play Hawthorne and have no idea what its reputation is like) that BRIS is showing me that out of 91 route races this meet that 31% (!!) are won in wire to wire fashion, so I would have to question whether or not you are really seeing much of a surface change there.
what to do with King Cyrus?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Since I haven\'t a clue in this race other than a disbelief in Midnight Hawks stamina.
I went searching, queried various talking head sites and discovered:
a) Midnight Hawk is a stand out (apparently he has better class also)
b) King Sirus could maybe win if Rosie and blinkers help a lot.
c) my choice is a tomato can
d) The horses that are actually winning races are mostly local runners, and don\'t really matter.
e) TAP is tricky, he can afford to ship and sometimes jumps up with 41/1 lightly raced young 3 y/o\'s
Yawn! the race is of little interest yet it has a $500K purse?
Midnight Hawk crawls home His final fractions are atrocious. He would have little chance in Kentucky.
The show pool sure is big on Midnight Hawk
number5858 Wrote:
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> The show pool sure is big on Midnight Hawk
Only 65% of the pool is bet on MH.
You\'ll want 90% or more before playing the \"steal the bridge
jumpers money\" game.
LeDuca said a lot of the show money was taken back out of the pool. Which is a big story in itself.
MH was lugging in pretty good, looked to me. First two well clear, maybe another 3 for the winner, but I doubt they go on to the Derby.
Jimbo,
Well, I think he (MH) was unlucky to lose. But thank goodness he did! Luck of the Irish.
Won\'t help Chitu\'s price but encourages me on his chances. TGJB estimates another 3, the effort surprised me.
Mostly, what I take away is that the appearance of a race can be misleading. A runaway winner can be a mediocre effort outrunning slow horses. Or, a great effort outrunning mediocre horses.
Trust the number not the race appearance. There will be big derby value if one of the artificial surface horses could step up?
I doubt we\'ll see anymore good chances to make money on a race with MH in it. I think BB will shorten him up and I don\'t want to try and beat him again.
why would MH losing at 2/5 hurt chitus price?
As a Midnight Hawk doubter, I thought he would run worse than he did Sat. Jimbo had mentioned (in an earlier post) that he would upgrade Chitu if Midnight Hawk ran impressively. Chitu, as you must be aware, has been outrunning Midnight Hawk.
So some have uncertainty about the Sunland #\'s. That race and those #\'s are important in evaluating Chitu. who is lightly raced. Since Midnight Hawk did not embarrass himself @ Haw. Chitu is not embarrassed by association.
Since I now have less doubt about Chitu #\'s, I expect that opinion to be shared by others. Less doubt (more confidence) may translate to a shorter price in the derby.
Losing @ 2/5 proves he had a whole lot more supporters than detracters. Jimbo & JBelfior & I may have been the only ones! Yet, if your point is that the two horses had so few doubters that any change in opinion would be irrelevant to derby prices - looks like you are right.
Dynamic Impact did not win the Illinois Derby, Midnight Hawk lost it. Agree with TGJB that its unlikely that anyone out of here will go to Kentucky.
IMO, Chitu will end up a pace casualty with the likes of VIT and Wildcat Red,none of who appear likely to carry their speed any further than they already have.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
well I like chitu and I hope people look at MH race as a bad race. Either way I think Chitu will be near 25-1 derb day unless he looks spectacular derby week.
I was watching that show pool & thought I saw the same thing, the number decreased dramatically on MH. Someone was cancelling tons of show tickets.
I would draw an entirely different set of conclusions out of the race.
MH lost to a horse whose previous best was 3pts slower than his, and he had already developed 7pts from Nov. It\'s pretty easy to \"not embarrass yourself\" when you are 3-5 points better than everyone else in the field, any of the legit contenders on the Derby trail would have destroyed this field.
I\'m also drawing the complete opposite conclusion if we have actually validated the Chitu number (have we?). Yes, I suppose you could use yesterdays race to help validate that Chitu ran something like a 2.5 or a 3 in the SUDerby. And what good is that?
It leaves him a couple points behind a large cluster of contenders, which means he would have to run a significant new top and hope that none of the 6 or 7 horses in front of him do, while also getting a better trip than those 6 or 7 horses. That seems like an extremely far-fetched hope. While it has certainly happened in past Derbies, the horses that make that move are almost always deep closers like MTB and Giacamo who have been racing all spring on speed-favoring tracks and become unleashed on the fairer and more demanding CD surface, and not speed horses like Chitu. I can\'t remember many early speed types that ran a 2pt or better top in the Derby, might be worth a look thru the archives.
I went thru the archives for probably the last dozen derbies or so, and suprisingly a 2 gets you in the trifecta about half the time....so, if chitu did in fact run a 2 or so, his line will look good...slower but forward. And if he runs a 2 or even a 1 in lousiville, with a trip, it may take a 0 to beat him....and I am going on assumption he went forward in sunland and that he will be a huge price in kentucky.
When you have an entire thread devoted to Chitu you can forget about him being an overlay.
well, he closed at 31-1 in pool 4, which closed a week after the sunland win. Im pretty confident, he will not be one of the top 5 betting choices....where that lands his odds, who knows...but im not interested if its under 20-1.
Keep in mind that MH raced outside him on both turns in the Sunland Derby, so I wouldn\'t expect chitu\'s fig to be much better than MHs.
very true...so maybe in the 3 range, in which case I wouldnt be as excited....We will find out soon enough.
One of very few sporting a Beyer of 102(like TG zero) JB has the Sunland race slower than Beyer.Other services split.
I\'d say by the supporting evidence since:
1) This race
2) commissioners Ark Derby
3) The relative efforts of other horses they raced against this winter (like everyone else other than Hopp being so far back in the SA Derby)
That TG overwhelming has the right of that argument.
1.This race came up on the fast side 102 Beyer
2.Commissioner Ark Derby irrelevant, confirmed slug
3.Hopp, like 3rd choice, and was FAIRLY close to by far the racetrack fastest CC
1) I hope you aren\'t suggesting that the Ill Derby winner went from a TG6 to a TG0
2) Confirmed slug or not, Chitu was only 6 in front of him in the SU derby on a better trip.
3) The point is, Hopp wintered in FG and OP and didn\'t race against MH and Chitu more recently like some of the others that got crushed in the SA Derby did
Thread,
The prior race, same distance, confirms the Ill derby fast.If the winner jumped up 5+points, then its something in the air. See jump up of winners of Wood and Ark derby.
Good luck
Mike
Limited data since, so far looks like I got it right. Covello\'s crush (Commissioner) paired the 7 at OP, MH unlikely to have gone forward at Haw. Still watching, but feeling pretty good about that one.
There are LOTS of other differences this year, between all three \"name\" services.
\"MH unlikely to have gone forward at Haw\'
...pretty difficult to get there unless ignoring the clock/prior routes.
Just looked, you\'re right. This is the stuff that gives figure makers stomach aches, I\'ll be working on it for a few days.
That track is notorious for split variants, by the way, but it usually happens earlier in the card.
Interesting, your exact sentiment was just expressed by another sharp fig maker.
TreadHead Wrote:
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> While it has certainly happened in past Derbies,
> the horses that make that move are almost always
> deep closers like MTB and Giacamo who have been
> racing all spring on speed-favoring tracks and
> become unleashed on the fairer and more demanding
> CD surface, and not speed horses like Chitu.
Didn\'t you tell me that CC ran on the \"new dirt\"?? You even made a smart ass comment about storing all of the old dirt in dump trucks. Here is your quote..
\"PDub, not sure if you are suggesting that Santa Anita put the dirt from the old track into dump trucks for 3 years and then simply replaced it when the time came, and I really hope you aren\'t trying to dumb down the discussion to say \"dirt is dirt\", because either of those are obviously ridiculous.
From everything I read, SA went to great lengths to come up with a new \"state-of-the-art\" dirt surface for the replacement. I\'m in no position to judge the significance of the difference between old and new, but it factually is different, which to me means that using horses that ran over the old surface (let alone horses that ran nearly 2 decades ago) is pretty much irrelevant to the discussion I\'m trying to have.\"
You mean a horse like Giacomo???
You stated that CC ran on an extremely glib surface (new dirt) and that the horses I mentioned, including Giacomo, ran on the \"old dirt\". Thus, they didn\'t matter when talking about Cal horses that ran exclusively in California and ran well in Kentucky. Your words not mine. Actually, your word was irrelevant. I mentioned Silver Charm, a Derby winner that ran in the first flight. Nah, doesn\'t matter. That was over the \"old dirt\".
Now you mention how Giacomo raced on a speed favoring track some 10+ years ago, was \"unleashed\" with great success at CD, after you went to great lengths to tell us how the dirt is different at SA today than it was 5 years ago and later.
And I\'m the one that is \"mentally challenged\" and \"dumb down the discussion\".
If you\'re going to include Giacomo as a horse that ran over a \"speed favoring\" track, then include the other horses that ran over the same surface that had success. Many that weren\'t closers, that in fact (I know how you love that word - fact and factually) ran on or near the lead.
Winning Colors, Silver Charm, and others ran close to the pace and replicated that form in Kentucky. They ran over \"speed favoring tracks. Its apparent the only horses relevant to your discussions are those that validate your opinion, as opposed to those that don\'t.
You have no idea whether or not CC will handle the surface, any more than you can predict that any other horse will either. You\'re guessing, and trying to convince yourself otherwise by tailoring facts that fit your opinion. You\'re the type of person that back fits data, then thinks he\'s come up with a profitable handicapping system.
Comparing Giacamo to CC is so laughable, I\'m not even going to respond to that garbage you just posted. Please stick to trolling the Mike Smith haters.
TreadHead Wrote:
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> Comparing Giacamo to CC is so laughable, I\'m not
> even going to respond to that garbage you just
> posted. Please stick to trolling the Mike Smith
> haters.
Garbage??
Man, you really hate it when facts are used. I used your exact quotes, nothing made up.
I\'m not comparing Giacomo to CC. Your inability to comprehend is keeping you from having a reasonable debate. That\'s unfortunate.
You have no response because there isn\'t one. No shame in that. Its tough to see someone use your own words to dispel a silly point of view. Brush it off.
Good day sir.
OK PDub, you win. Since you seem to be obsessed with my opinions and can do nothing but troll them, I will incredibly bore the rest of the board with a detailed post showing you how laughable what you posted before was.
PDub said:
Didn\'t you tell me that CC ran on the \"new dirt\"?? You even made a smart ass comment about storing all of the old dirt in dump trucks. Here is your quote..
\"PDub, not sure if you are suggesting that Santa Anita put the dirt from the old track into dump trucks for 3 years and then simply replaced it when the time came, and I really hope you aren\'t trying to dumb down the discussion to say \"dirt is dirt\", because either of those are obviously ridiculous.
From everything I read, SA went to great lengths to come up with a new \"state-of-the-art\" dirt surface for the replacement. I\'m in no position to judge the significance of the difference between old and new, but it factually is different, which to me means that using horses that ran over the old surface (let alone horses that ran nearly 2 decades ago) is pretty much irrelevant to the discussion I\'m trying to have.\"
You mean a horse like Giacomo???
So let\'s start at the beginning here. Right off the bat, you are trying to dumb down this discussion to blend 2 entirely different premises I\'ve been discussing on the board. One very specific and one much more general.
1) Front-running horses that have had success over the new SA surface since it went back to dirt seem unable to get back to their tops back east more often than I would expect. I clearly stated there are 2 buckets of horses, those that can do it and those that can\'t.
I NEVER, EVER stated or even implied that EVERY front-running horse at SA, past or present, cannot duplicate tops at CD or back east, yet you consistently post after post, project this opinion back upon me as though I said it, including in this latest trash heap you have blessed us with.
2) A much more general topic, that closing style horses from many different tracks going back the last decade are generally ones that run large new tops in the Derby. Has absolutely nothing to do with the first point, it\'s discussion two entirely different types of horses in a less specific scenario not focused on a single track, but you\'d like us to dumb down the discussion so we are talking about both of them at once.
PDub said:
You stated that CC ran on an extremely glib surface (new dirt) and that the horses I mentioned, including Giacomo, ran on the \"old dirt\". Thus, they didn\'t matter when talking about Cal horses that ran exclusively in California and ran well in Kentucky. Your words not mine. Actually, your word was irrelevant. I mentioned Silver Charm, a Derby winner that ran in the first flight. Nah, doesn\'t matter. That was over the \"old dirt\".
Now you mention how Giacomo raced on a speed favoring track some 10+ years ago, was \"unleashed\" with great success at CD, after you went to great lengths to tell us how the dirt is different at SA today than it was 5 years ago and later.
Yep, and thanks for posting my words above so we can see how ridiculous you are being. Here you state I went to great lengths to state the surfaces were very different, yet my exact words clearly state I\'m in no position to judge the difference between the two, which is pretty much the exact opposite of what you accused me of saying.
PDub said:
And I\'m the one that is \"mentally challenged\" and \"dumb down the discussion\".
Shoe is certainly fitting so far, shall we continue?
PDub said:
If you\'re going to include Giacomo as a horse that ran over a \"speed favoring\" track, then include the other horses that ran over the same surface that had success. Many that weren\'t closers, that in fact (I know how you love that word - fact and factually) ran on or near the lead.
Winning Colors, Silver Charm, and others ran close to the pace and replicated that form in Kentucky. They ran over \"speed favoring tracks. Its apparent the only horses relevant to your discussions are those that validate your opinion, as opposed to those that don\'t.
The use of Giacamo in the discussion of point #2 is definitely testing the boundaries of relevant data, I\'ll openly admit. But the Derby is only run once a year and move-up closers have success so infrequently, it\'s hard to show examples without going that far back.
By the way, Giacamo won the Derby 9 years ago. Silver Charm won 17 years ago and Winning Colors 26 years ago. I find the introduction of them into this discussion to be laughably irrelevant, and will always continue to do so anytime someone tries to bring up an example of something that happened that long ago as a talking point, no matter what the discussion topic. If that\'s the example you have to use to make your point, chances are you are standing on pretty shaky ground.
But the biggest clownshoes moment of them all occurs at the end of that statement where you once again project upon me that I have said all horses that win over speed favoring surfaces can\'t win at CD, which I absolutely never said in any shape or form. I hope you are enjoying arguing with the voices in your head, because you aren\'t having an argument with any opinion I\'ve ever made, just the ones you seem to think I\'ve made after twisting the meaning into something else.
PDub said:
You have no idea whether or not CC will handle the surface, any more than you can predict that any other horse will either.
Hooray! You got one right! This is, in fact, exactly what I\'ve stated in my previous posts about this theory.
PDub said:
You\'re guessing, and trying to convince yourself otherwise by tailoring facts that fit your opinion.
Yep, my previous posts also openly admitted I\'m guessing, never anywhere did I convince myself of anything different and all the data I\'ve used is factual.
PDub said:
You\'re the type of person that back fits data, then thinks he\'s come up with a profitable handicapping system.
Well, you\'ve been right about little else so far, so I guess you might as well shoot for the moon as you did here. I\'m not going to dignify this with any response other than to say, I\'m the type of person that enjoys discussing handicapping opinions and theories (the ones that people actually stated, not the ones that the voices in your head made up) and that\'s why I\'m here.
Tremendous filibuster. bbb
I\'m obsessed?? LOL.
You just spent 3 hours writing your masterpiece.
You contradict yourself over and over. Give it a rest.
You said its new dirt. You use a horse from 9 years ago, after the \"new dirt\" was installed.
Now you say a horse 9 years ago is relevant, but not longer than that. You change your tune with every post, and I\'m the clown and other petty names?? LOL indeed.
That took me 1 minute, 179 minutes fewer than you.
You\'re a real tough guy behind a keyboard. You\'re welcome to call me any name you want directly to my face. Find me and insult me, instead of running your mouth like a little bitch behind a keyboard. I\'ve had enough of it.
The stuff between you two ends here. It\'s interrupting my drinking.
Does Chitu have the pedegree to run the derby distance?
Pedigree is tricky because dad Henny Hughes raced maybe seven times, never
past 1-1/16th miles. Mom is by AP Indy, unraced, has produced two unraced, a
minor winner and Chitu.
I\'ll give out some proprietary TG sire profile info: 27 SW, 10 at 1 mile or
over; 28/11 if Beholder\'s recent victory has not been added in.
Not impressive. Of course, if you go over by Chitu\'s barn and his nostrils
are big enough to stick a clincher in, or you see whatever in his physicality
which makes you think he will go long, well then just shred that pedigree
page.
Chitu has had four lifetime starts, two of them at 6 furlongs. History says
that isn\'t enough to support a victorious Derby run. Chitu\'s not Big Brown.
Chitu comes from one of the unfashionable points laden final preps. In this
century, only three Derby winners have come from said races: Animal (Spiral),
Mine That B (Sunland) and War Emblem (Ill Derby). Street Sense came out of
the first synthetic Blue Grass, do not want to say that that race became a
second tier prep the first year it was run on synthetic
Chitu joins WMA and WR on the \"tossable\" list. Is Uncle Sigh going? If so he
makes it a foursome.
Uncle Sigh is a toss?? Coming off a pair of his two year old top in his last? I think that has been a pretty good sign of a forward move in the next race in the past, if I\'m not mistaken.
I\'m not saying I like him, but just that I\'m not sure he\'s a toss.
Just wanting to know more of your reasoning behind that.
Thanks!
KMart
K:
The Uncle Sigh \"pair\" was packed with 3w/4w, no? Sam #s also a little packed?
Sigh\'s running his worst career race and pairing?
The most important pattern to me is winning consistently. Saaamraat has done
that. Nobody understands better than me that the quality of horseflesh he has
conquered is not Triple Crown quality
Saaamraaat is consistently faster. Sigh and Saam raced head to head 3 times,
the first 2 over the inner course, virtual match races with some Winter
Aquedrek behind them. As I said Sam showed me more in the Wood than he did in
winning the match races with Sigh. Some rating. Some energy at the end. We\'re talking subjective here.
The Horizontal Herd may grow to 7 or 8. Only room for one of these 2 NYBs in
the Herd. Sam\'s been faster thus far.
Uncle Sigh had a brutal trip in the Wood, right from the start.Dont like him but think his Wood should get a mulligan.
No horse in the derby has exhibited more gameness than Samraat, all heart.
Sam has also spotted 2 to 6 lbs to the uncle and still finished ahead. At even weight Sam is the one to keep. Uncle is a toss. Only 18 more to to go.
Sam unlikely to get the 1 1/4 and a step back at this point is more likely than a step forward.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Speaking of which, can anyone think of a history for Violette shipping to run, especially in big races?
Read the Footnotes....did not work out so well.
Good Luck,
Joe B
That one I knew, was one of 4 I pushed in the seminar for that race. But the result is also why I asked. Can\'t find a damn thing.
He won the Fountain of Youth.
Was stabled there, no? Of some use, but not quite the same.
Only TC success was Citadeed, 3rd in the Belmont in \'95.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Samratt air shipped from Palm Meadows to Aqu twice.Think its more an issue of how a horse handles shipping rather than who the trainer is.
True Violette races mostly at NYRA.
14% of 69 starters is what I found not sure about big races only.
Read the Footnotes was training at Palm Meadows also.
From Bloodhorse:
Read the Footnotes, a son of sprint champion Smoke Glacken, has been training sharply at Palm Meadows training center, with his most recent works being a six-furlong drill in a bullet 1:12 1/5 and five furlongs in 1:00 1/5. Jerry Bailey will be aboard, as he was in the Nashua and Remsen, and will break from post 8.
Looks like he is 0-5 in breeders cup races. Only other starter in ky derby was read the footnotes.
louisvilleguy1111 Wrote:
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> 14% of 69 starters is what I found not sure about
> big races only.
I would imagine that most of those 69 were shipped from his NYRA base to Mth and
Parx, two fortresses built on hay oats and water.
Running out of a receiving barn and getting one to settle in temporary lodgings
two different scenarios. Will also be interested to see how Wicked Truth,
allegedly never happy @ GP this winter, acclimates at CD.