I put alot of emphasis on these kinds of decisions by a jockey and his/her agent
they aren\'t always right but they are right more often than they are wrong (note Javier taking off General ARod in the Florida Derby for Constitution)
There isn\'t a big race rider in the game better than Smith and so this decision is worth nothing I believe both for Hopp and Intense Holiday
John Velazquez rides Intense Holiday
I will be interesting to see where Rosario lands.
It looks like General a Rod didn\'t work this weekend, which is what I would have expected if he had bounced out of the Florida Derby well.
Every 3yr old TC contender Rosario gets on,goes backwards.....he\'s a bum!
Not really questioning your premise Jim, but do we have any actual data to back this up? I\'m thinking last year that Johnny V had a choice between Verrazzano and Orb and choose wrong, but I\'m having trouble thinking thru other serious choices jocks have had to make other than that one.
It\'s a premise that SEEMS like it should make sense, but would love to see someone with time to fully research this show a meaningful amount of data to see if tough Derby choices are usually made correctly in the past. And it may be that there really isn\'t much data to go off of.
I think it\'s meaningless when you have horses that are comparable and I don\'t see much difference between the two.If they both fire the difference probably comes down to who saves more ground.
A good example would be last year Castellano taking Normandy Invasion(4th) over Revolutionary(3rd)
They took Santana off for Rosario to ride in the Arkansas derby, to funny. Does it really matter who is on your horse, if the horse can\'t run?
OK, but while it is splitting hairs on one of them, technically 2 huge name jocks made the wrong choice with their decisions last year. This is kinda what I wanted to get into, but I have no memory of other jock decisions and doubt google is going to be much help. Would have to go thru PPs of all the major contenders to iron it out, unless someone has a sharper memory.
more a choise of baffert horse over plecher
Castellano\'s decision to ride Normandy Invasion cost Revolutionary the Derby when Borel got the mount. Not sure what decision from TP was worse...putting Calvin on Revolutionary or blinkers on Palace Malice.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Back in 1994 Bailey took off Go For Gin McCarron jump on and went basically wire to wire in the slop. Bailey rode him horrible all winter, Holy Bull and his bar shoe was the favorite that year. When they named McCarron I was all in!! That was a nice Derby score wish they all came that easy! Lol
1995 mike smith rode thunder gulch all winter down at gulfstream gave the mount up for a NY horse can\'t recall his name then pat day jumped on for the bluegrass stakes 4th place finish then Stevens got back on him (rode him as a 2 year old) to win the roses. Just another that sticks out that I can recall.
TreadHead Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------
>
> It\'s a premise that SEEMS like it should make
> sense, but would love to see someone with time to
> fully research this show a meaningful amount of
> data to see if tough Derby choices are usually
> made correctly in the past. And it may be that
> there really isn\'t much data to go off of.
In making your case against California Chrome, you talk about horses that raced exclusively in California not replicating their form in the Derby. I mentioned several horses that have had success, but you discounted them.
You said that California Chrome raced on the \"new dirt\", those horses that I mentioned ran on the \"old dirt\".
Fine. You know when they started racing on the \"new dirt\"??? December 2010. You used the enormous data base of 3 years to come to the conclusion that horses racing exclusively in California could\'t replicate their form in Kentucky for the Derby. Let\'s forget that you used a sprinter/miler as Exhibit A.
Looks like it shouldn\'t take too much time to research this premise. 3 years of data has proven that California horses racing exclusively in California run poorly in the Derby.
P-Dub, you are mentally challenged, I\'m really not sure how else to state it.
I NEVER, in any shape or form, said that all horses who race in California and have success can\'t have success away from California. I very clearly stated that there are 2 buckets of horses, one where surface doesn\'t matter, and another, of which there are several examples, where exceptional performances on glib surfaces aren\'t fully duplicated on fairer tracks.
I also openly stated there is no data to show us what CC is going to do and anyone speculating that he will take to it fine (you) or won\'t take to it as well (me) is doing little more than making a guess at this point.
I would ask you to fully read and comprehend my discussion points before throwing up arguments against strawmans that have completely twisted and changed the original meanings of my words, but it seems pretty apparent that you clearly just enjoy arguing, even if you are arguing against yourself with a strawman you made up.
Tread-- stop calling people names.
So it\'s OK to completely change the meaning of what someone said and re-post it to try to make them look like an idiot, but not OK to call someone out for doing that?
You can call people out. Stop calling people names.
DRF says Rosario is going to ride General a Rod.
In a 20 horse field I might just have lost 4 lengths vs Castellano.
lol after the strangler gets down you think only 4 lengths?? lol
Derby rides for Rosario
2013 3w5w much the best from 16 post
2012 3w5w from an 8 post
2011 3w5w from a 2 post
2010 3w4w from a 9 post
\"In a 20 horse field I might just have lost 4 lengths vs Castellano\"
...Errr, you may want to check your own jockey path data, which I find comical by the way.
Louisville
Not sure about who is going to win the derby but u are odds on for most nonsensical posts between now and then
California chrome can\'t win because he is a cal bred. And now two times the even less accurate \"Rosario strangles horses\"
Rosario goes 4 wide. Yep. Rosario takes back horses with natural speed. Nope.
How about instead of posting it a 3rd time u actually look to find an example of it.
This is usually a fairly serious broad with insights and not nonsense.
The \"broad\"(nice typo) is different this time of year, you know that. Just wait.
Makes me miss Ramon !
For you to think Joel is a gate jock that sends is all I need to know about your opinions...
When Joel makes the front he has been pulled to the lead trust me why you think he moved his tack to the east coast and started cleaning up?? Cause the same reason the frenchmen got it handed to him in CA... CA = SPEED and Rosario is not a speed jock simple as that.
Doesn\'t mean he can\'t win on the front end it means where his skills improve horses and move them up is on closers not front runners.
As for CC I would NEVER and I mean NEVER bet CC in the KY Derby for multiple reasons based on his PP\'s and numbers, and him being bred in CA is just another reason I threw out there. Now thanks for playing along... bet all you want on CC and when he hits the 1/8 pole and is looking for that oxygen mask or a place to go and lay down kindly discard your tickets to the ground and go to the next race.
Louisville
I am going to give u the benefit of the doubt. Maybe u are a young boy learning the game.....
Yes, Rosario got run out of California and fled east because he can\'t get horses out of the gate. Don\'t let the fact that he was top guy in California before he came east get in the way of your theory.
Incredulous. Rosario is like Frenchie. Yes. A real lack of aggression.
Please continue to be part of the betting pools....
Thanks in advance for that
I will probably play against CC for value reasons (and a pool 3 play to cover losses if he beats me). But I really don\'t get the \"can\'t get the distance\" stuff.
The SA Derby\'s final 3/8ths might have been the fastest run in the history of the race (on dirt). Quicker than AP Indy, quicker than Point Given, quicker than I\'ll Have Another. And he did it being walked across the line, farther ahead of the rest of the pack than these others who could obviously get the distance.
Not saying he is those of course, but this has nothing to do with how the race looked. Everything about his last suggests he won\'t be lying down at the 1/8th pole.
Tread,
You would lose the name calling contest too.
TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub, you are mentally challenged, I\'m really not
> sure how else to state it.
>
> I NEVER, in any shape or form, said that all
> horses who race in California and have success
> can\'t have success away from California. I very
> clearly stated that there are 2 buckets of horses,
> one where surface doesn\'t matter, and another, of
> which there are several examples, where
> exceptional performances on glib surfaces aren\'t
> fully duplicated on fairer tracks.
>
> I also openly stated there is no data to show us
> what CC is going to do and anyone speculating that
> he will take to it fine (you) or won\'t take to it
> as well (me) is doing little more than making a
> guess at this point.
>
> I would ask you to fully read and comprehend my
> discussion points before throwing up arguments
> against strawmans that have completely twisted and
> changed the original meanings of my words, but it
> seems pretty apparent that you clearly just enjoy
> arguing, even if you are arguing against yourself
> with a strawman you made up.
You were very clear in stating new dirt vs old dirt. In between your usual snide comments, you specifically stated the horses I mentioned didn\'t count.
So in fact you used a 3 yr old data base to make your claims.
JB and others disagreed with you, explained in very clear terms why. Unfortunately, as you have shown with yet another insult, you are a little too emotionally attached to your point of view.
That being the case, we will just have to agree to disagree. Have a wonderful day sir.
Pdub-- when did you go on Prozac?
May 18, 2012
Must be time release, took a long time to kick in...
Funny thread but I have to interrupt.
Calvin Borel gets the mount on Ride On Curlin.
JB,
did you win a big bet or something?
you are only this funny when something good happens
otherwise you are more grumpy!!!!!
By the way-- my friend\'s dog is on Prozac. Seriously. It\'s the apocalypse.
Enough, I\'m going home.
Yeah, giving the IRS lots of money puts me in a good mood.
I\'m punchy.
Not a Rosario fan here by any stretch of the imagination; I knocked him pretty good here 2 years ago when he came in for the Spa meet. He sucks on the turf courses and is very fond of the 4 path. In fact I named him wider than wide Mike!
Sorry P-Dub your guy is on a big time big race roll and riding like he did in the late 80\'s early 90\'s before his nasty spill that broke him up.
In the 40 years that I have been betting horses Cordero, Chavez and Joel are the 3 most aggressive riders out of the gate period. This guy guns, can rate them on the engine and will steal lots of races when he is far from the best.
Not an aggressive front end rider!!! WOW is all I can say to DAT !
Good luck,
Frank D.
One of the best gate riders I remember who didn\'t get much ink was George Martens. In 1979 at Belmont there was a horse who had severe gate problems who was switching to Martens. (I think it was the last race opening day in May, trained by Nat Krone (sp?), but since it is 36 years ago I won\'t swear to the day or race) I bet him with confidence & he didn\'t disappoint. Whenever I saw a horse like that who was switching to Martens, I gave the horse some serious consideration.
\"By the way-- my friend\'s dog is on Prozac. Seriously. It\'s the apocalypse.\"
Forget the Prozac. Marrow bones from Esposito\'s on Ninth Avenue got us through the winter.
PVal in his prime....end of debate!!
It has been great reading this board lately. I have learned that jockeys, surface, and pedigree can seemingly give one sufficient information to pick or dismiss a potential Derby winner. Saves me $25 on the seminar. Sorry JB. More bad news on April 15.
Roger are you ready for opening day at Fingers on Friday!!!!!
For as much talk as we\'ve had about theories and opinions that involve gray areas, there couldn\'t be much more factually incorrect than this garbage about Rosario.
In 2011 he won his THIRD STRAIGHT riding titles at both Del Mar and HOL and his first riding title at SA. Any assertion that he left Cali because he couldn\'t perform is laughably wrong.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Roger are you ready for opening day at Fingers on
> Friday!!!!!
Frank, those 4 1/2 furlong races can be tricky, so I\'ll be focusing on the 6F routes.
Tread
It is laughable. But I am not sure it is the worst. Comparing Rosario to Frenchie, in the same post, is pretty close....
Frenchie is a poor mans pat day, saves ground and rides extremely patiently, often to a fault (arguable point). And is certainly weak in the stretch. He is a \"hands\" rider.
Rosario is pure aggression. Often not aware of saving ground which is why many on this board don\'t love him. But is all brawn with the 4 and 5 wide power moves and strong as an ox in the stretch. And very tough on the lead.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> PVal in his prime....end of debate!!
Roberto Gonzalez.