Was really hoping a horse would emerge yesterday that was playable in a few weeks at CD but the two I liked before yesterday were very disappointing. Bayern and The Commish just aren\'t as good as I thought they were. Danza had the jump in figures I was looking for from Commish but its hard to love him at 1 1/4.
Medal Count was great given the post and short rest but he seems like a Keenland specialist
This three year old crop may turn out to be great as the ones who are good later In the year may not be good yet (ala Will Take Charge and Palice Malice last year) but I agree with those suggesting this is an uninspiring derby crop at this point.
To those wondering why Cali Chrome is getting so much attention, I\'m not sure why its so offensive to those folks. Someone has to be the favorite and the favorite will always get the most attention. Horse and connections are nice story so he gets the attention. Doesn\'t mean he\'s gonna win but to be so offended or puzzled by the attention the horse is getting is odd. I would ask it this way. Should someone else be the favorite and thus getting the most attention? Of course not so if you are so convinced that Cali Chrome has no shot (which some here seem to believe, be grateful the horse is getting all the attention because it will make the prices on the ones you like better)
Problem with this derby is figuring out who else has a shot is tricky at best.
I think either Cali Chrome chalks out or it\'s some 30 to 1 bomb that I will scratch my head about for the next 12 months.
Hi Jim,
I wouldn\'t call it offense to the amount of attention that CC is getting, I\'m just surprised by the extent to which it is going to. People keep tossing the word \"Freak\" around, and there just isn\'t anything I\'ve seen to justify it, compared to someone like a Big Brown.
I get that someone has to be the favorite in the Derby, but this year more than any other seems to be a year where a favorite SHOULD be in the 5-1 range based on a rational look at data (TG data anyway), yet people are pouring tons of hype based on visually impressive wins at a single track over next to nothing.
And I guess it\'s only human nature to forget about the long line of previous failures of \"visually impressive\" prep winners from speed-biased tracks (let\'s call it the Sinister Minister effect), but that won\'t stop me from scratching my head each year when ppl start over-hyping.
Tossed War Emblem for that same reason and got burned.
What did you see in the Ark Derby to make you feel he is not a 1 1/4 horse? Finished with plenty of energy at 1 1/8 (looked like the rail was not the place to be at OP), galloped out strong as well. I see a horse that is within the dosage index range at winning the Derby, has a RAN sire line which is always a good thing anyone that says different is crazy, and plenty stamina on his mothers side. I am in no way saying he is going to win the roses for sure but surely we have seen worse bred horses win the the KY Derby in the past, right??
I haven\'t looked at any of the numbers but I thought visually his race was as impressive as anything we have seen this season. I mean just because you didn\'t give him a chance to win the race doesn\'t mean something may not be there. Heck I thought the horse was in the race just to keep it honest up front. All the signs were present. Speed Jock on the rail, trainer has a big time closer in the race, and the favorite wins his two prior races wire to wire by open lengths...
Visually impressive Smarty,Barbaro, Big Brown all whistled in the derby, all had run pretty fast too going in,like CC.Sinister Minister comparison to CC a joke.
Weak knocks on CC who needs to only run one of his last two races to win.Only a question of him having another one left in the tank,very tough call.Several in there with a punchers chance,mostly off one performance though.
anything can happen, especially this year but his sire was a sprinter. Only grades stakes the sire won were sprinting
we have seen \"slow\" horses win the Derby but we haven\'t seen a horse that wasn\'t bred to get the distance win the race in a long time unless the horse absolutely towered over the field figure wise heading into the race (Big Brown and Smarty)
So, you either need completely dominant figures (which no one has this year) or you need to be bred to get the distance
Since only 2 horses this year really have any combination of being relatively fast and breeding for the distance, I think it\'s a two horse race
Wicked Strong
Hopportunity
If you want to throw Ride on Curlin and Cairo Prince in there as horses that have run ok figures and are bred for the 1 1/4, I wouldn\'t arent too much but Ride on Curlin seems like more of a candidate underneath and Cairo Prince\'s last race certainly didn\'t suggest that he wanted to go any further than 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4. And I don\'t buy that CP was \"short\" for the last race. Kirian is a great horsemen, he doesn\'t run short horses in big races
Obviously CC has been impressive but he\'s not faster than the others and he\'s not bred for the distance so he\'s tough for me to play
Don\'t let me talk you off of Danza if you like him because I am wrong all the time about this stuff but you won\'t get me betting that a sprinter will sire a derby winner
\"Obviously CC has been impressive but he\'s not faster than the others and he\'s not bred for the distance so he\'s tough for me to play\"
Hi Jim,
I would argue that CC is substantially race track faster than the rest.Hopportunity,with his phony wide wet fig, was dismissed with impunity by CC while geared down late last out.Race track performance trumps breeding once they go 9f pretty easily,imo.
Agree with you that either CC wins, 30-1 bomb, and a fairly common crop going in.
Good luck,
Mike
I\'m going to wait & see what the reports are when these horses get to Louisville, but I have a different opinion on Cairo Prince right now. I do believe he was a short horse. There\'s a good chance than McLaughlin thought he could get enough points out of the race with a horse less than 100% because the goal has always been to peak in Louisville, not Florida. I think he was more a victim of overconfidence that he could still get close on a track that totally plays against the wide moves that are Cairo Prince\'s style.
Now the doseage boys certainly will agree that he won\'t get 1 1/4, but I know you\'re a class handicapper as well as a numbers guy & Cairo classes up pretty good compared with some of the other horses. He\'s beaten Wicked Strong twice already, the last time trouncing him in the Holy Bull by over 15 lengths. If Wicked Strong can be forgiven for 2 bad GP races, why can\'t Cairo be forgiven for 1, especially off a 2 month layoff? He also trounced Intense Holiday by over 6 lengths in the Holy Bull who then went on to beat Hoppertunity by 7 in the Risen Star. Cairo has beaten Intense Holiday 3 times already. Also going back to last year\'s Remsen, even though the pace was ridiculously slow, Cairo did run the last 1/4 mile in 35 seconds in a 1 1/8 race. He also has a January sheet # that is competitive with just about all the other contenders & if he matures since January will be extremely dangerous in May if he exceeds that January number.
Since I haven\'t seen the yet to be run workouts nor the final sheets, I\'m not sold on Cairo Prince as the Derby winner yet, but he does have a few things going for him.
Top,
In case you are not aware. CP was kinda babied after his 2014 debut win at GP.The figure for that race came up a huge top on Rags( not even close to reflective vs his previous Rag figs which were off the wall slow)
Trainer KM, a Rags Kool Aid drinker, backed off CP fearing the bogus huge top AND concerned that CP is NOT the most physical of specimens. CP has a few monster internal splits and I agree he is dangerous if he shows up with his best.His last at GP a puzzler for me.
Mike
I\'m not sure what to make of that, because it could be interpreted a number of ways depending on whether one is in favor or against Cairo. I\'ll take the positive side here.
If you look at I\'ll Have Another\'s sheet, O\'Neill did something very similar with him in 2012. He ran a huge jump up figure in early February, then didn\'t run again until early April. Now obviously the main difference is he won the SA Derby, but it was a regression by 1.75 points. He then paired his February # winning the Derby. I don\'t know what Cairo\'s regression was yet, but if he ran around a 3 it will mirror IHA\'s winning Derby pattern as a 3yo.
One thing I do know-Cairo\'s odds should be better than his chances of winning the race. He\'s going to be overlooked for a few reasons: 1) His Beyers are all under 100 as are his BRIS #s 2)He has a doseage index of 7.00 3)His last race was bad and 3 other Derby horses beat him.
Since he isn\'t much of a physical specimen, I think the reports out of Churchill from Welsch & other clockers on his physical appearance will be very important. The good news is, unlike Chrome, he\'ll ship in early enough to Louisville to get a workout in over the track & I assume will have daily gallops all Derby week which will be observed and reported to us on the internet. Plus if we\'re lucky, we might just get some observations from our man Covello like he has done before.
Pedigree hasn\'t meant much during this prep season but I have to believe it will in the Derby.
Cairo Prince,Vicars In Charge,Wildcat Red,Midnight Hawk and Danza are lacking in the stamina department looking at their pedigrees.I can\'t play any of them to run a top or even pair at the Derby Distance
Maybe one or more can outrun their bloodlines for the distance but they won\'t be in any of my tri\'s unless part of an all leg.Maybe a bottom of the super with an optimal trip where they just get carried along saving ground one or both turns.
Danza had fantastic trip in the Arkansas Derby always in the clear-never in traffic.
Unlikely he works out a trip that smooth at Churchill.
\"Danza had fantastic trip in the Arkansas Derby always in the clear-never in traffic\"
Big,
Agree on pedigree. A pedigree \"expert\" stated that overall this is the worst crop he\'s seen in years, collectively, not individually, for 10f.
Danza ran his last 1/8th faster than WTC(123lbs)12.40 vs 12.68 while running away from the rest of the field. If that race was 1/8th longer, would it have mattered. Watching,it appears like he would won by even a wider margin had they gone further.
Mike
I really don\'t get the lack of analytical ability from people on this board. I never said all visually impressive winners fail at the Derby. I never compared CC to Sinister Minister directly. Stop putting words in my mouth I never said.
Once again, there are 2 buckets of horses. Visually impressive prep winners who did well at the Derby (those you mentioned) and visually impressive prep winners who have failed.
Anyone trying to figure out which bucket CC belongs in is guessing at this point and anyone speaking with certainty to one way or the the other I think is fooling themselves. But I will admit to not knowing how to use the \"race-track fast\" analysis when it conflicts with TG and BRIS pace data in showing someone as largely superior when figure data does not.
Thread,
You clearly referenced Sinister Minister in your \"visually impressive\" comment in a post that referred solely to CC.
How else could one interpret what you were pointing out?
Mike
I have to ask what you dont like about him physically? He is certainly not small. I actually thought he was a pretty solid physical specimen.
Not saying I like Danza in the Derby at all but what I am saying is you stated that Danza can\'t get 1 1/4, well lets all I have heard over the years before the Derby is the \"experts were saying\"...
Boundary as a sire, ?? 1 1/4 ?? we just don\'t know.
Exlusive Quality, no chance at a 1 1/4 nothing but a sprinter on the turf
Distorted Humor with a Slewacide mare NO way this horse can go 1 1/4
Our Emblem can\'t throw a KY Derby winner
I have heard it over and over again... Look all I know is if the sire of the horse in the starting gate has Raise A Native on the top side do not discount him, period. But for you to to say Danza can\'t go 1 1/4 and you even think about saying Cario Prince can is simply silly. That horse can\'t go 1 1/4 in 2:04 and change if his life depended on it!!
That was the greatest sell job ever! Those owners should be in jail next to Bernie Madoff! Just proves some people will pay anything to try and win the Greatest Race in the world.
Every horse in the race can get the 1 1/4 just not all them are going to be able to do it without a oxygen mask needed at the 1/8 pole heading for home... I am saying after seeing that performance and the time of the race with his gallop out Danza looks like he can get the 1 1/4 with no problem. If he was to win the KY Derby I would think he will pay $35-50 to win. All I am saying is you can throw him out for allot of reasons but the distance is not one them.
Good luck!! Man I love Derby time!
couldn\'t agree with you more that Derby time is phenomenal
I know some old school horse players understandably lament the fact that the game doesn\'t get this much attention year round as it once did (i.e. Native Dancer being the first horse to be famous on TV, etc) and there are always the inevitable \"it\'s only one race\" wise guys but the fact of the matter is that other than the NFL, most sports aren\'t attracting as much attention today as they did 20 or 30 years ago
there are so many more options for entertainment that everyone\'s time gets diluted
a bunch of hockey teams have gone bankrupt because fans lost interest after the strikes, baseball stadiums aren\'t as filled as they used to be and TV ratings for almost all sporting events are way down (even the yanks/YES)
Let\'s just embrace how great this time of year is and enjoy all the action and attention while we have it and not worry about how this used to be the case year round!
I was replying to what Miff had said. Personally I\'ve never really examined his physical stature and was going under the assumption he was right. I hope he replies to your question so we can know what he meant.
Again, for the third (fourth?) time.....
Sinister Minister is an example of one of the 2 possibilities for horses that are visually impressive in prep wins. It\'s an extremely simple concept, I\'m dividing visually impressive prep winners into 2 buckets. Bucket A are your Barbaros and Big Browns, Bucket B are your Goldencents and Sinister Ministers.
Once again, as with the PDub discussion, anyone saying they know for certain which of these 2 buckets CC fits into is not being honest with themselves. I\'m openly saying (and have been saying) I\'m not sure, which means I\'m not directly equating him to Sinister Minister (yet).
My money will likely be on a guess that he falls into the latter bucket, but I\'m not stating that it is a certainty that will happen, just as all his fanboys should be realistic about the fact that it is far from certain he will fit into the first category. I consider it to be an educated guess on many different factors already discussed, but it is in fact a guess.
I have never once stated, or even remotely implied, that all horses that do X end up always doing Y in either one of these discussions, and am getting tired of defending completely wrong interpretations of words ppl want to keep putting in my mouth that I never said. If you want to set up your own straw men and argue with yourself about it, have at it, but no need to associate me with it.
Lost in all this discussion was the fact that VIT was a visually impressive winner in his last prep as well, but for some reason everyone wants to discount the competition he ran against due to the IH cross-fire issue and the fact that he hasn\'t won 3 in a row like CC has (though if he had been facing the competition CC had, he would be on 3 straight visually impressive wins as well).
What do you think about Chitu\'s distance pedigree?
I LOVE his pedigree in general but it certainly doesn\'t scream 1 1/4 with Henny up top and Zilzal as the second dam sire
I\'m not sure it matters though too much as Baffert was pretty negative (very publicly) on his last breeze and Baffert showed last year that he will do the right thing by a horse by not running Gov Charlie so I doubt the horse will wind up in the gate.
Isnt beholder by henny hughes? She seemed to have little problem getting the 1 1/8
Yes, but Tricky Creek vs. A.P. Indy for the damsire.
Ill take AP INDY
there are others that have a different view but
a) beholder is very unique, most henny hughes are more distance limited
b) there\'s a big difference in my mind between 1 1/4 and 1 1/8
again, don\'t let me talk you off but I would need to have this one running much better figures than the group to bet him given questionable pedigree
Jim
I know I posted a bit on this before and TGJB responded that u two have discussed this as well. But I am just not seeing the evidence out there with regards to pedigree making a difference in the derby and specifically the 1 1/8 vs 1 1/4. Many winners had what people considered suspect pedigrees. But with the exception of the Giacomo and Mine the bird years, fast horses with solid preps at 1 1/8 win. Horses aren\'t running new tops at 1 1/4 as u have often pointed out. That extra 1/8th of a mile hasn\'t really seemed to be a big difference.
On the other hand I would argue that the Belmont, at the unique and aberrationally long distance for U.S. dirt horses, has resulted in more examples of horses with distance pedigrees winning.
Narrowing it down to Hoopertunity and wicked strong off pedigree seems like a HUGE leap. But good luck.
Wicked strong is on my list as well. But still feel like Hoopertunity is a Belmont not derby horse.
Jim
I totally agree on the extra 1/4....but, not too many G1 going 1 1/4 on dirt for females that I know of. And I have no idea of chitu last number. I realize he is a bit slower, but I would think his line will be going forward and maybe 1-2 points slower than most...but a lot of them Ill guess went back in their last races. And with his tactical speed he may get a trip.Since baffert and garcia have parted ways, not sure who will have the mount. And again, my opinion is based on a huge price.
You know, I\'m curious about that last, which you and I have talked about.
Putting aside the question of who wins, have you looked to see whether there\'s correlation between how they ran relative to their previous top in the Derby and \"1 1/4 pedigree\"?
I agree with the earlier poster who pointed out Funny Cide, SJ and another one who would have been considered distance challenged going in. A lot of pedigrees look better after the fact (see: Dosage, changed).
Pizza,
There are several horses especially Vicar In Trouble and Cairo Prince who are not \"physical\" Vicar is a shrimp and I\'m not a fan of smaller horses in the Derby, maybe the most physical race run in the USA.
CP is more robust than Vicar but is average at best physically((Smarty Jones was average but all engine)I\'m giving CP a mulligan off the poor FD on the basis of his excellent usual quick burst and tactical speed.Also have to wonder why KM babied him between his Florida starts.
CC is ok but his engine size(ass end is not grand)
Ability trumps all but size does matter,go to a sale and watch most of the smaller horses get passed on by the big buyers.
Good luck
Mike
P.S. A request was made several years ago to list the height and weight of the TC contenders....never acknowledged!