take a look at the Archives to see Ice Box\'s sheet before the Florida Derby and compare it to Commissioner\'s sheet heading into the Ark. Derby tomorrow.
Horse is finally getting a chance to do what he wants to do tomorrow (i.e. go 1 1 1/8 on a track where you can close) and horses like that typically offer value.
Bayern/Commssioner cold exacta tomorow at Oaklawn
I was thinking it was Tapiture/Commissioner exacta, lol
I was thinking there was enough speed in the race to keep Bayern busy on the front end. I mean you know Tapiture will get the strangle of a lifetime with Joel riding the first time.
Strangle of a lifetime?
Joel goes to the front with everything. Not sure what races u are watching. Clearly one of the most aggressive jockeys in the country.
Strangling. That would be Frenchie, who should be deported. Or Cornelio who is a modern day Jose santos.
Great prep but maybe not a great betting race.
Thinking both outside horses fire.
Bayern on the engine and a fitter Strong Mandate stalking.
Weight/wide for Strong Mandate may cost him a placing but he only needs to run 3rd.I like the 3f work to have him on his toes and a return back close to his Hopeful form.
Commissioner stablemate Intense Holiday jumped up a bunch in the Risen Star off a string of slower races so why not?
Good Luck
I\'m not sure what to make of the pace. The Rebel had average opening fractions, given the other routes on the day. The pace of the Southwest went about the same. I think that might help Commissioner, since his two blowout losses came dropping too far back behind a hot pace.
Also makes me think Bayern has it all his own way on the front end.
And The Overlay(s) is/are:
1) #4 Ride On Curlin @ 12/1 probable good trip. If the additional distance helps (most will read PP\'s as it won\'t) price could be about the m/l. While Desormeaux sent him in the Rebel, John Court likely to press along side Tapiture following #2 Knock Em Flat a likely pace factor. He was a TG analysis use in the Rebel and the situation seems similar here.
2) #6 Commissioner @ 8/1, since Covello touted him 2nd - Jim\'s thousands of followers will probably beat this one\'s price down to 5/1 by post time. 8/1 doesn\'t seem an overlay to me. Commissioner=Revolutionary if the latter gets a piece of the preceding race then I\'ll consider him for 3rd. Mike Smith up is always a concern. The simple read is that the additional distance will help his late running style or NOT. On Friday most of the winners were with the pace. Only a couple of deep closers had any success and one was a favorite.
3) #7 Conquest Titan @ 10/1, this ones claim to fame seems to be his 2nd place finish to Cairo Prince in the Holy Bull. His late running style is no help. Since Borel will need his patented rail ride to contend along with Knock Em Flat dropping anchor on the second turn and possibly Ride On Curlin mid stretch looks like too much traffic. Does not look a bargain to me.
4) #5 Knock Em Flat @ 20/1, well this one is lightly raced and a jump up is possible. The maiden in last weeks SA Derby just about created a big score. My problem is I believe the argument that stamina comes from the bottom of the pedigree. This one\'s dam one and only good race came winning a maiden claimer @ 1+1/16. However it could be the filly went wrong after that. Trainer change says SoCal competition too tough for #5. Wish & a prayer. Hey he could drift up to 30/1 if another/Commissioner takes money.
5) #5 Thundergram @ 30/1, Has beaten a lot of horses already in 2014. I think his January win was aided by a bad weather late speed bias. But his recent 2nd place was credible, albeit slow in terms of final time. Getting into the race early was probably a function of a pedestrian pace rather than improving form. So what is this horse doing in this race? Oh! Mr. Oxley! I wish I had a read on this ones stamina. But seems only interesting to superperfecta players,
The obvious ones are Tapiture (a proven racehorse) and Bayern (a proven trainer) this looks to be the cheapest exact payoff. So one needs to beat one of these or get a bomber in 3rd or a bookend race. Hm!
Including Strong Mandate seems more subjective than objective. Yet, D. Wayne has lots of fans and accomplishments. No money to be made betting with the crowd.
6) P.S., #1 Danza @ 15/1, I can\'t be positive on this one with Bravo up. This board would be throwing shoes at me. A virtual cinch to get stopped inside by traffic as is his m.o. Another whose price could vary trainer gets the money! Overlooked can sometimes be a good thing.
This is an opportunity to score because the consensus is this race is chalky. Of course those are folks who think they know what they are talking about and are likely sober too. And the pattern read is...
Will somebody estimate the Bayern/Commissioner exacta? But, what if Commissioner actually wins? or a Bayern flops? A ?? contest race so late in the event? I am out of steam - Good Luck all.
Always glad to hear you ring in on pace. In fact I was going to solicit same.
You indicate you are not sure about pace - I am curious as to any particular concerns/doubts.
Well, Ice Box came from the clouds in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies. This doesn\'t seem to be Commissioner\'s forte. Both his wins came from at most 4 lengths back. He got dusted by the pace of Midnight Hawk and Wildcat Red.
The two previous Oaklawn preps had moderate early pace, and three of the four prior players are here again. As others have said, Commissioner looks like a grinder, as opposed to a deep closer, so a moderate pace helps.
Bayern is of course the wildcard. If he goes, and Strong Mandate and Tapiture with him, Commissioner is left with too much to do. If he cruises on the lead, Commissioner picks up the pieces.
Covello\'s Bayern/Commissioner play looks about right.
(BTW, I\'m pretty sure Knock \'Em Flat is scratched)
Thanks - If Knock Em Dead is a scratch then (for me) that removes a wild card from the early portion of the race.
When Baffert said he was gonna do a Bodemeister with Bayern (after the foot bruise) he was probably being literal. My guess is he\'ll play catch me if you can, they won\'t and we will have a new Derby option.
I\'m headed back to Randwick down under!
\"Mike Smith up is always a concern\"
.......Brilliant!
First couple races at Oaklawn looks like front end speed is very dangerous looks like Baffert will go right to the front and air. Oh well now there is some more speed in the Derby to keep CC busy on the front end.
Jim-- not only that, Intense Holiday jumped 7 points off a bunch of races at a similar level, and Wicked Strong did something similar. Obviously we should be playing all 3yos that level off around the 7 level to run zeros.
I have a different problem. If he goes forward 3 points I have to take a hard look at the Sunland race.
After some review, it occurs to me that Byern does his best running late. Since in both of his previous races he went (sorta kinda) gate to wire and we\'re conditioned to view Baffert runners on the lead we assume that for Byern.
My principal point is if the other early runners choose to track Byern (or lead in soft fractions) and those early runners choose to track with confidence expecting to out kick him in the stretch just could be that strategy plays to his strength.
So now I expect (the usual suspects) in a repeat of the Rebel with Baffert 1st again.
Tapiture has lots of kidney sweat-looks like crap.
I couldn\'t bet him.
Now watch him win by 5
Lots of future tickets trashed after that one.
Uncle Singh and Cairo make it in as 19 and 20th on the up to date list.
U hate to sound bitter prep after prep but another day of \"major preps\" where all the horses look like shit. At least as far as derby chances. Dance of fate ran well. But is a synthetic horse and the owners claim they won\'t run in the derby.
Bayern gets put away on the front by a 1000 to 1 shit before showing a tiny bit of heart to run 3rd to a winner with horrific form. Tapiture completely empty. Ran disgusting.
Commissioner ran as he always runs. (Good gallop out again so fans can bet him back again)
The runner up is a bit interesting to me. Clearly runs well from off it as opposed to setting the pace.
Ugly ugly. Ugly.
Not much to disagree with here, and the winner did get a rail trip. But:
The time stacks up real well against WTC, and got the last 1/8th faster. Say what you will about the ugly stretch run there, but we\'re still talking about the best dirt horse in the country.
Winner\'s 2nd off a long layoff - lost to some pretty good ones in the return. Gotta think Pletcher had high hopes shipping to run a Grade 1.