Call me a heretic, but I believe that possibly the most over-rated angle in all of Derby handicapping has to be pedigree analysis. At least in the last 10 to 15 years.
Exactly which of the last 10 to 15 winners of the Derby were horses where pedigree analysis was a key part of the equation? I would argue likely none. Sure, there were quite a few where \"after the fact\", people looked at the \"tail\" and pointed to stamina influences.
I will just look at the last 10 derby winners.
Big Brown, STreet Sense, Smarty Jones and Barbaro were just the fastest horses of their generation. Period. People actually questioned the pedigrees of at least two of them.
Mine that Bird and Giacomo were just fluky results. (although MTB validated his win with good runs in the Preakness and Belmont)
Super Saver got a great ride and the key was the wet track and the win at Churchill at 2.
Animal Kingdom a tough horse to have, off the poly track win only. You had to just say that his turn of foot in that race, combined with working out well on the dirt would be enough.
I\'ll Have Another had top West Coast form with a solid figure in his penultimate DErby prep.
And Orb had the best results in his prep races and was peaking at the right time.
Not sure \"pedigree\" was a factor in any of them.
i can point to critics that said Funny cide\'s pedigree was no good for distance, Smarty\'s pedigree the same, War Emblem the same, and others.
I just don\'t think it matters much. Except for the occasional absolutely sprinty types that run in the Derby, and even for them, their preps point that out. You don\'t need the pedigree to see that. (shoot, didn\'t Groovy run in the Derby)
Horses that do well at 1 1/8, are prepped properly, are fast enough to win, and draw well are contenders. if they have connections that know how to win triple crown races, all the better.
Looking for pedigree angles, when horses already have run many many races to analyze just doesn\'t seem as valid.
Certainly open to other thoughts that disagree.
Good luck,
Jim
Jimbo-- I have taken a similar position against Mr. Covello, hence my shock at his earlier post. Basically I take the position that most horses who run their top at 1 1/8th are capable of doing it at 1 1/4 until proven otherwise (though some could argue the paucity of Derby tops argues against this-- I personally don\'t think it\'s the distance, mostly).
Probably someone with time on their hands could do some homework on this, somehow...