It will be amusing watching everyone spend the next month bashing California Chrome\'s pedigree while talking about how well bred all of the Tapit\'s are
Tapit and Lucky Pulpit have the same sire themselves, Pulpit
Tapit dam sire is unbridled, CC is Cozenne
I certainly appreciate that the bottom side of many of these Tapits are much better than CC\'s bottom side and that the bottom side of a pedigree is critical to the stamina of a horse but the fact of the matter is that no Tapit has gotten 1 1/4 yet despite being bred to the best mares in the world and I just don\'t mean for the derby, I mean the older ones as well
Tapit is a brilliant sire and I wish I had 50 of them myself and of course I would generally take a Tapit over a Lucky Pulpit to get a distance of ground but as Jimbo said so well on the board earlier today, at some point, what a horse has actually done on the track trumps what the pedigrees say and since CC just blew a hole through the wind running 1 1/8 and since no Tapit has gotten the distance yet, it seems silly to me how people are already dinging the pedigree of CC vs the pedigree of the Tapits
I won\'t be betting CC on top in the Derby for alot of reasons but pedigree isn\'t one of them.
My pedigree bashing has absolutely zero to do with the sire\'s side. Anyone doing any sort of pedigree study of derby winners will notice the stamina influence from the dam\'s side is of paramount importance and sire stamina has varied quite a bit. The one thing that is consistent is the need for dam side stamina, of which CC has next to zero.
IMO, sire side discussion is a waste of time. I\'m not trying to say that dam stamina is 100% of the story, but any sort of study would much more greatly value the dam side stamina influences than the sire side based on data I\'ve seen.
having said that, any thoughts on chitu? AP Indy on female side. Not sure of the sunland derby figure but if its a 1 or so, could be interesting.
Tread,
I explicitly said in my post that I understand the conventional wisdom is that the bottom side drives the stamina but many will rush to bet a sire in this race that hasn\'t proven he can get the distance despite the best bottom side pedigrees of any stallion in the game.
Some good pedigrees for ten furlongs running in the Arkansas Derby:
Bayern
Strong Mandate
Conquest Titan
Commissioner
Thinking we will have at least one maybe more picking up enough points to get in.
In that case (Dam Stamina Influence), looks like Baffert probably will have a third shooter at CD, namely, Bayern, if healthy. Yes, He does still need to perform.
Baffert has proven able to get them ready early. The colt has shown his speed. While dam, Alittlebitearly, did not race. Her dam, Aquilegia, did win the New York Handicap at 1+1/4.
Assuming Bayern wins @OP (a medium big assumption) then it looks like four of the top five US 3 y/o colts (3 BB\'s) will harken from the left coast. If I add Shared Belief then well .........
It is late and just letting off some steam!
What A fine weekend of racing - Congrats NYRA for a good Sat card, Keeneland is a treat (hoping Maker & Ramsey don\'t ruin it like last year).
For Now, Thoroughbred Racing is alive and well. How about that Golden Slipper 3.2 Million for 2 y/o\'s Aussie, Aussie, Aussie and fillies run 1-2-3!
Nice pedigrees but 1 maybe 2 of those horses has a shot to be a runner.
Strong mandate backing up in all of his races in the stretch this year. Exactly how relevant is that pedigree?
Commissioner is a \"never was\", can\'t even call him a has been. He is like a poor mans harpoon (and harpoon is awful). He was crushed by midnight hawk and Chitu. Neither is at the top of anybody\'s list.
Bayern could be any kind. Very interested to see how he runs.
And conquest Titan could be a runner. Although running down general a-rod late is looking less and less impressive with each race.
The short list of win contenders is pretty narrow for the big race.
I think Bayern and Tapiture could be near the top if they run well.
Good luck
Lucky Pulpit and Tapit may both be by Pulpit, but the similarities end there. Doesn\'t matter what you look at, be it BRIS (Tapit AWD 7.4 to LPs 6.5F) or TG (Tapit 1.25 pts better at routes, LPs .75 worse at routes), it\'s very clear that the female influences brought into the Pulpit breeding of those offspring have had significantly different results.
Again, none of this isn\'t to say that CC or another Lucky Pulpit horse couldnt win a G1 at 10F, especially over a track like SA where the ground is not nearly as taxing and pedigree means far less, as speed carries with less effort. But when we are talking about getting over taxing ground like CD, my opinion is that things are going to be very different and when you have such a weak female influence as CC brings to the table, this might be the time where the limitations start to show, over a more taxing course.
Let\'s not forget, for as impressive as CC has been, all his route wins have been at SA. Again, we need only to go back to last year to see a horse like Goldencents that fooled everyone into thinking he was a legit 2 turn horse away from SA TWICE (he was pretty heavily bet again in the Preakness).
I agree CC is a very nice horse and his wins have been visually impressive, but I\'m really not getting that way everyone has gone completely gaga over him given that there are several other horses with similar figures and he has done all his impressive work (save a 7F one-turn win at HOL) at the same track. If he duplicates it somewhere else like CD, then I\'ll take notice, but I think people are star-struck and not taking everything fully into context that they should (his breeding, his wins all being at SA, his figures compared to his peers).
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It is late and just letting off some steam!
Ok, watch the last race at Kee on Saturday and imagine
you needed Long Jon/Rosie to complete horizontals.
> What A fine weekend of racing - Congrats NYRA for
> a good Sat card.
Oliver Zip ran an outstanding race Saturday. Looked left for dead at the
3/16th pole, surged back, have been told to watch the race again, that he
was being rated. Hope he gets a chance at 7f or mile on the grass.
Keeneland is a treat (hoping
> Maker & Ramsey don\'t ruin it like last year).
The third amigo last spring was Joe L. Rosario, who was riding the Keeneland
courses quite well. Is he first call for Mike and Ken this spring?
> For Now, Thoroughbred Racing is alive and well.
Anyone capable of such a statement might well have been at Parkland Hospital
in 1963, reporting that JFK\'s status was \"day to day\".
OK, Derby preps. I think I have more respect for Saaamraaat now. His Wood run
was more impressive to me than his inner dirt match races with Uncle Sigh.
Not tossable if in the Derby gate.
Chitu. I am not going to let the pedigree discourage me here. To me he has
finished his last two races well enough to be not tossable if in the Derby
gate.
Can\'t a make up my mind about Chitu. A cut above Midnight Hawk obviously, and finished the Lewis well. Not so much in the Sunland - final 3/ths in .39 and change - but maybe it was the altitude.
(Edit: Sorry, that\'s wasn\'t right. It was .38 and change, which is respectable off a good pace)
A horse that can\'t \"get the distance\" won\'t get it on any dirt surface. Many speed types at Santa or Gulf spit the bit late when distance challenged.The quirky CD surface is a question for all to answer, CD not nearly as speed biased as SA and Gulf, generally speaking and the derby pace has crushed more than a few of brilliant early speed.
CC has moved well over several different surfaces, he is long gaited and fluid, his main weapons.Dont know what speed/perf figs people use but CC is substantially consistently faster than all save an isolated fig here or there for a few.CC\'s pedigree is now irrelevant given the authority he has finished with in his recent races.His resiliency and physicality must be answered Derby day and shipping out of Cali on a plane not to be dismissed.CC was physically brilliant two back,good last Sat.
Solid favorite going in if he avoids any issues in the next 4 weeks.
Interesting that the board has broken out in a discussion about pedigree rather than figures. Anyone care to discuss the fact that CC has run 4 big ones dating back to December and Saturday\'s effort might have been negative territory. They should have trained him up to the derby and he would have been great value.
hey buddy, awesome seeing you this weekend, your UCONN was awesome, congrats!
I think the discussion is moving to pedigree because the figures clearly make him the most consistent fast horse in the Derby
Others may wind up with isolated figured that are better and Jimbo\'s favorite derby horse (hahahah) has several figures that are faster including his last race where he went backwards (again) in the stretch but other than him and Samaarat, Cali Chrome is the only one that has consistently run figures that would make him part of the mix
I definitely don\'t believe in manufatured patterns for young horses. You have to run them to have them ready for the Derby. Going in off of 8 weeks would have been huge mistake. Horse would be too fresh and rank and would be on the lead, potentially in crazy fractions. With this race under his belt 4 weeks out, he has a better change of sitting just off the pace
I can\'t wait to see Jimbo\'s post when the General Arod sheet comes up on Derby week. That is going to be a classic. Arod would be my biggest futures payout so I would love to believe he has a chance but I\'m with Jimbo, I don\'t see it
Jim
If TGJB has general Arod with faster figures than California chrome, then I would love to have some of what he is smoking.
Better yet, I would like to go \"all in\" on that matchup bet. He knows how to reach me.
Good luck
We already have our head to head prop.
I am old. My memory is failing me.
What prop?
Besides, based on Jim\'s comment about General Arod\'s sheet, sounds like a two foot putt for you......
Artie v Midnight Hawk at 1 1/4 on dirt.
\'They should have trained him up to the derby and he would have been great value\'
Wrong,
They tried the 8 week route with Cairo Prince into the Fl Derby and the horse was dull,lacking his usual sharp run.Very tough to keep a horse racing sharp,8 weeks out.Normally that route taken for horses of lighter frames or smallish that cannot stand up physically to a tough TC campaign.Also some go over the top way too early(see TAP 1-38 in Derby with his early 3yr old GP rockets)
Critical to the depth of the Derby that Cairo Prince, Social Inclusion and Bayern get in, imo but long shot they do. All legit fast compared to some of the slugs that will enter the gates if they don\'t get in.
Mike
First of all, they gave CP 8 weeks into his previous race, and he ran a new top. And he didn\'t run that far off his top last time.
There are is some chance they got caught up in the hype with this one. Nothing wrong with the layoff if you want the big effort(s) to come later-- but they may have thought he was good enough to win without being tight, which is another story.
Preakness might be unusually interesting this year. This is a very deep crop.
re CC\'s pedigree -
On top it\'s Pulpit over Cozzene over the 2nd dam of Unbridled\'s Song. On bottom it\'s a full to Travers winner Rhythm over Danzig (with Rhythm\'s brilliant female family showing up again) over Sir Ivor over Vaguely Noble over Ribot over Princequillo. Before that you see Judy-Rae, the one that got the whole Courtly Dee thing going. The average winning distance on both top and bottom is short, but I think it\'s been established that CC is not your average Lucky Pulpit/Not for Love, so it might be best to focus on some of the other influences. A few years back folks tossed Union Rags from serious triple crown consideration because of the Dixie Union, when it was pretty clear that UR was not your average Dixie Union.
Does anybody see specific Lucky Pulpit/Not For Love characteristics in CC that might matter once he tries 10f over a more demanding track?
and there was a time when people (myself included) argued that Distorted Humor\'s didn\'t want the classic distances
A Derby and a Belmont and BC Classic win later, no one worried about that anymore
note I may be making same mistake on Tapit now but point is that people\'s view on pedigree tends to be very much an arm chair quarterback point of view
and oh by the way, Boundry wasn\'t you\'re classic derby sire either!
I meant Monday morning quarterback. sorry!
Jim-- Given the source, I bumped my head when I fainted after reading that.
\'And he didn\'t run that far off his top\'
FL derby figure for CP saved by ground loss,horse was without his usual run when asked. Performance a huge disappointment to trainer/jockey/owner,regardless of fig.They thought first or second for sure.CP on the smaller side and that plus Kiaran drinking the Kool Aid with the ridiculous top on Rags,equalled 8 week.The prior 8 weeks was 2 to 3 development time and winter TC run break.
Agree,if several of the fast ones dont get in derby,Preakness may be a deeper race.Social,Cairo want in Derby,Bayern may earn ticket Sat.
Rags had Cali Chrome going in with a top of like TG 2.5.If a horse wires over there,he\'s probably slow.. Brilliant!
lol
very good
listen, I am always trying to learn and learn from my prior mistakes, that\'s half the fun of all of this for me
since you never make any mistakes, you don\'t have that opportunity (he says with a wink)!
Jim-- I have made mistakes. You just weren\'t around when I made them.
One involved a horse called Elite Mercedes. I agreed with Walden about running him on 2 weeks rest in the Arkansas Derby off an effort, a) not realizing until after the entries came out he would spot weight under the then allowance conditions, which cost him second and the earnings he needed for the Derby, and b) after running on short rest the horse got hurt and was never the same.
And I\'m haunted to this day by the idea that running License Fee in the Molly Pitcher, 3rd start in 5 weeks, cost that great mare her life. She had won about 5 in a row, was 3/5, it was an easy spot... she died on the track.
Jim
Good to see you as well. Did you nominate Testa Rossi to the Edgewood and if so do you plan to enter?
Around these parts I\'m the lone Uconn fan, but I\'m hoping for a repeat of 2004 where both men and women won the championship.
\"Does anybody see specific Lucky Pulpit/Not For Love characteristics in CC that might matter once he tries 10f over a more demanding track?\"
Mike D,
Think that characteristic would have shown already.Under the microscope, CC won on Cushion,Poly,Dirt and really improved once he added lasix/blinkers and fronts came off.Seems to not need a certain surface, CD is quirky though.
Over the next few weeks,all kinds of theories will surface championing some slug while knocking the obvious fast ones....its part of the Derby tradition.
Good luck,
Mike
Mike-- my girlfriend grew up in Storrs. We walked over to the campus once. Lot more cows than people up there.
I once played golf up there and as it happens was paired with the guy whose job it was to make sure the athletes passed all their tests.
>
> I once played golf up there and as it happens was
> paired with the guy whose job it was to make sure
> the athletes passed all their tests.
Academic or urine?
More seriously (much) hoping for a full and speedy recovery for Steven Crist, who was hospitalized after suffering cardiac arrest yesterday.
Miff,
You are the first person I\'ve heard describe his gait as long. Everything else I\'ve heard describes it as extremely average, but somehow he just keeps going, which is yet another reason I\'m suspicious of his ability to perform well over a more demanding surface.
And completely disagree with your assertion that horses that \"can\'t get the distance\" consistently will have the same results on different types of tracks. There are any number of surface-aided route wins by horses at certain tracks like SA, GP, or MTH that never would have occurred at other places.
Sometimes surface matters, and sometimes it does not. But to suggest that it never matters and numbers can just plug-and-play and be expected to be duplicated at other track every time is ridiculous. P-Dub listed horses in a different response where surface did not matter (most of them before the synth was put in at SA, making it fairly irrelevant to this discussion, but whatever) and that\'s all well and good, but for every horse that is able to duplicate their efforts over a very different track type, you can probably find one that fails.
I\'m not suggesting there aren\'t horses that can run well on both types of tracks, there clearly are. But, there are also any number of examples of horses that only ran well over glib surfaces and struggled at more demanding locations. Game On Dude won races all over SoCal and did his best work at SA, yet he failed on 3 different attempts at CD.
CC has run races lower than 7 at 2 different tracks, and I really don\'t care about any of his races above 7. One of those was a 7F sprint at HOL. The rest were at Santa Anita.
He has not done anything to yet demonstrate he would handle a demanding course like CD, but also get that he really hasn\'t done anything to prove he couldn\'t. I\'m not saying he can\'t, only that I\'m going to be highly suspicious of his ability to do it for a number of reasons, and if that puts me in the minority, then so be it.
If he had run -3 and were 4 points better than everyone else, then I would get all this hype. But given the info TGJB has shared with us about the SA Derby, there are what.. 6 or 7 other horses all within a point of him already at least? Unless your sole method of handicapping is how many lengths a horse won by and you completely discrediting close finishes involving multiple horses, it seems like irrational exuberance.
Tread-- No comment on CC. But there are an awful lot of assertions in there backed up by no facts, and in at least one case contradicted by them.
Dude ran a neg 2 at CD, and a neg 2 1/2 at CT. He also \"failed\" a couple of times in Breeders Cups at SA, running several points worse than those figures.
Thread,
At 10f, no truly distance challenged horse is getting the distance, regardless of a speed bias, shorter distances,an intense speed bias can carry a pea heart farther.
Win, lose or draw, there are no horses as of today in CC\'s league as to consistency, accomplishment and pure racetrack speed, albeit at Santa only.
If he runs back to his Santa routes,someone has to run a substantial top to outrun him. CC does not have an ounce of \"methodology\" fast in his figs as many others do.
Good luck,
Mike
Mike, I love the \"methodology fast\" term
JB and I have been debating this as well lately (as you can tell we have been \"debating\" quite a few topics)
you just gave me some new ammo in my argument
I really love that term
thanks
An assertion is ammo in an argument?
There\'s a guy who used to post here who will get a good laugh out of that concept.
A few thoughts ... Winstar will run because as a breeding operation the upside is so much greater than the individual race. Coolmore/Tabor are a perfect example. Thats how I\'m looking at it anyway. On the horse for course angle though something has my attention ... If you look at all the big preps so far, who has taken their game on the road? Some havent even shipped! CC has to come east (hows Sherman outside of CA?), WS has 2 nice runs, both at Aqu. Hope Jimmy didnt learn how to ship from his dad. The Fla derby winner has only raced at GP, the La Drby winner has only won at Fairgrounds ... ah Tapiture you say ... Is this unique this year? Outfits that ship know how to do it and thus have an advantage.
An assertion by Miff is most certainly ammo in an argument
If it was my assertion, not so much but Jimbo, Riche and Miff\'s assertions are definitively ammo on this board...lol
Jim,
There is no argument that adjusting for weight and ground loss is a reasonable formula.On occasion, like today when JB asserted that Cairo Prince was not far off his top, I see it very differently.Cairo Prince was empty in the Fl Derby, ground loss or not.
Lord forbid, we all agree all of the time, we\'d have to find a new \"second\" life aside from the horses.
Mike
\"Not far\" in this case 1 1/2 points, almost 3 lengths.
Not sure how this contradicts anything. Was -2 his best figure? He did his best work at SA, and yes there were a couple times he didn\'t run his best at SA. Perhaps if CC ran 10+ races at SA he might not win every one of them either. Yes, he ran \"well\" and won a couple races away from SA, but never better than he did at SA with the multiple -3s.
Unless CC is going to run his best race at CD, and assuming your figures are correct about the other horses, something a cut below CCs best, even if just a cut below, wont get the job done in the Derby. And for all the reasons I\'ve already mentioned, my money is going to be on him not being at quite his best. Not saying he\'s going to come in last place or even the bottom half of the field, but I don\'t see him winning. I get that it\'s an unpopular opinion.
If we were talking about a horse like Big Brown that already has a several point advantage over the field, then an entirely different discussion. The splitting hairs over reasons he might back up 1 or 2 points are of little use. But given the cluster of figures of other contenders and where CC stacks up, it\'s time to start splitting hairs IMO, and I see several on CC I don\'t like compared to the others if we are talking about at 10F race at CD in a 20 horse field.
The point is, Dude did good and bad work at SA, and good and bad work elsewhere. There is no indication which dirt track he ran on had anything to do with it. His \"average\" race at CT was better than anywhere else, if you want to do it that way.
And yet he still lost all 3 CD attempts and one of the 2 CT attempts (the one he ran the better figure in).
\"Good\" is not going to cut it in this Derby with so many horses so closely packed in terms of ability (not unlike the NCAA tourney this year). I want the horse(s) that will be at their best on that 1st Sat in May, at 10F, at CD. I dont see CC being that horse (and I\'m pretty sure you agree with me).
I find your shipping experience comment interesting. Art Sherman is a very experienced trainer having had over 12,000 starters and over 2,000 wins. However, his career average earnings per start statistic is only $3,060.
Most of his wins have been in Northern California. Recently, he has had a string of horses in Southern California where he now lives.
As for shipping experience, I don\'t really know. Obviously knowing when to ship and how to keep a horse at his/her peak ability when shipping is very important. An interesting factor.
My point is not about CC, it\'s about Dude, and there is zero evidence he favors one dirt track over another. We use figures here-- winning and losing is in part a function of the competition.
let\'s remember that CP was much slower than the others in that race to begin with
2 of them had 1\'s and 0s and he was a 3 so he was already alot slower and then went backward on top of that, even a \"small\" backward move put him way behind the fast ones
there\'s alot of consternation about whether CP will get in
I think the concern shouldn\'t be whether he can get in but the fact that he would need to improve a ton to be competitive if he does get in
CP ran a 1 in his first GP start.
...was just gonna say, my sheets have CP with 1 which is what Beyer(adjusted) had
Ok, needed something to kill some time since I don\'t want to watch the local news coverage of the game tonight.
It\'s a long time from Dec. to may was I was curious how many horses have preformed well in Dec. and still run big in May. Secondly I was interested in seeing how many of the winners were able to pair up big efforts.
Of the derby entries since 2000, only eight horses ran a 1 or better as a 2-year old:
Normandy Invasion - (1),1,1,3,1,5 that 1 coming in Nov. 4th
Mucho Macho Man (-1)2,3,4,0,4 zero coming in Nov. finished 3rd
Jackson Bend (8)2,4,2,0,5 with zero in Oct. finished 12th
** Eight Belles (0)1,1,0,1,7 with 1 in Jan. kind of interesting finish 2nd
Pyro (5)10,2,3,-1,3 with -1 coming in Oct. finished 8th
Street Sense (-2)2,1,-2,5,6 with the -2 in the BC in Nov. won
Hard Spun (-1)1,2,2,2,4,8 with that first 2 in Dec. similar finished 2nd
Scat Daddy (14)0,1,4,5,1,5 with that 1 in Oct. finished 18
High Limit (24)1,1,2,1 with that 1 in Oct. finished last
Smarty Jones (-1)-1,-3,0,0,0,5 with that 2nd start in Nov. being the zero
All of these were pretty nice horse. Surprised there wasn\'t more entries with a big 2-year old fig. Guess my decision is if CC is more like Smarty or more like High Limit?
Art Sherman Has CC working At LA. The new track has the longest stretch in American racing at 1380ft.Do you guys think this will help CC get ready for the long stretch (1235ft) at CD?
richiebee - your posts entertain - thanks.
I meant \"steam\" in the way J. Covello (how about J-Co) uses the term \"hot air dispersing into nothingness\". However, I watched the replay of Saturday\'s 10th at KEE. Then watched it over and over again. I favored your #6 but it looked a pic em. Did not see the still motion. Stewards probably hesitant to call two DH\'s. Astute pic on your part. Very unlucky (GD %#!*) beat. Plug - The KEE website has excellent quality video replays.
Oliver Zip also looked unlucky to get broadsided by the Admiral maybe costing him the win? I agree a Nice Horse.
The Parkland analogy is a hoot! as well as you\'re spelling of whas his name.
Once again I am reminded, that when the cause of events is truly mysterious, it is more apt to be the result of incompetence than it is competence.
Midnight Hawk went to Sunland on short rest following a stressful loss to CC...
surprised he ran that well...think he\'s better than Chitu who was fresh...Hawk
should go forward with spacing.
Chitu has faced midnight hawk twice. Trounced him both times. The first time without even having route experience
Saying midnight hawk is better is like saying Kentucky is better than Uconn.
The way I see it, the only problem with his New Mexico race was that they gave Kentucky Derby qualifying points for it.
TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
P-Dub listed horses in a different
> response where surface did not matter (most of
> them before the synth was put in at SA, making it
> fairly irrelevant to this discussion, but
> whatever) and that\'s all well and good, but for
> every horse that is able to duplicate their
> efforts over a very different track type, you can
> probably find one that fails.
>
If Silver Charm and others never left California before the Derby, performed well on a dirt track, then ran well or won the Kentucky Derby, how is that irrelevant?
You\'re suggesting that the dirt surface pre synthetic is that much different than the post synthetic dirt surface??
Of course you can find a horse that fails over a different surface, as well as find a horse that duplicates their effort. I could find horses from every circuit that ran well at CD and others that ran poorly.
So using your logic, I can find a horse from Gulfstream Park that ran poorly in the Derby and then surmise that other horses will do the same thing. I\'ll just conveniently ignore the ones that don\'t support my opinion, just as you choose to ignore the one\'s from California that dispel yours.
You then say Game On Dude ran well on glib So Cal surfaces, then say he failed at CD. Yeah, getting run down at the wire in the BC Classic and getting beat a step or 2 in the Clark is such a failure. He also won at Charlestown. Getting beat doesn\'t mean you didn\'t run well. You can run your race and still get beat.
What you have said is that CC won\'t duplicate his performance over a different surface, yet you have offered nothing factual to support your claims. This game is about odds. As a favorite, it makes sense to take a chance he won\'t. If he wasn\'t the favorite and depending on his odds, it would be wise to think differently.
But whatever.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim-- I have made mistakes. You just weren\'t
> around when I made them.
>
> One involved a horse called Elite Mercedes. I
> agreed with Walden about running him on 2 weeks
> rest in the Arkansas Derby off an effort, a) not
> realizing until after the entries came out he
> would spot weight under the then allowance
> conditions, which cost him second and the earnings
> he needed for the Derby, and b) after running on
> short rest the horse got hurt and was never the
> same.
>
> And I\'m haunted to this day by the idea that
> running License Fee in the Molly Pitcher, 3rd
> start in 5 weeks, cost that great mare her life.
> She had won about 5 in a row, was 3/5, it was an
> easy spot... she died on the track.
Appreciate your candor. Those were tough spots, indeed.
PDub, not sure if you are suggesting that Santa Anita put the dirt from the old track into dump trucks for 3 years and then simply replaced it when the time came, and I really hope you aren\'t trying to dumb down the discussion to say \"dirt is dirt\", because either of those are obviously ridiculous.
From everything I read, SA went to great lengths to come up with a new \"state-of-the-art\" dirt surface for the replacement. I\'m in no position to judge the significance of the difference between old and new, but it factually is different, which to me means that using horses that ran over the old surface (let alone horses that ran nearly 2 decades ago) is pretty much irrelevant to the discussion I\'m trying to have.
I\'ve made quite a few factual statements. It is factually correct that some horses win impressively over the new SA surface (and others like it) and can\'t duplicate it other places that are more demanding, while other horses fair well over multiple different types of dirt. I\'m completely missing how anyone could even possibly dispute this.
It\'s factually correct to say that we don\'t know which of those 2 categories CC falls into yet, because the only dirt course he\'s run over is SA. It\'s factually correct that we\'ve never had a Derby winner with an AWD on both sides below 7F (at least as long as I\'ve been alive). The length of his stride seems to be open to interpretation, and certainly no expert in judging that, but it certainly is unfortunate we will not get to see a workout over the CD strip to see how he looks in a full-speed scenario.
Since you didn\'t seem to understand this logic above and incorrectly stated it, I\'ll help. Using my(?) (any normal person\'s?) logic, some horses that ran well at GP will run well at CD and others will not, it\'s not rocket science. The key question we are trying to get to here is trying to figure out which factors may help you predict which of those 2 categories a horse is going to fall into when they try CD for the first time.
Its factually correct that certain horses that have dominated over the new SA surface have not been able to duplicate their results at CD. This \"failure\" comes in many shades, from the complete falling on their face, like Goldencents, to the subtle 1 or 2 points off their best, like GoD.
Maybe it\'s not correct to call it a \"failure\", but despite TGJBs objections, GoD is exactly the kind of subtle difference that is possible, and from what I see, those subtle differences can make a difference in who wins. It can appear to be a \"good\" and \"competitive\" race, but on his sheet its a point or 2 below his best. It\'s not good enough to just run a \"good\" race or \"near your best\" on Derby Day, horses that win the Derby run their best.
I\'ve made no definitive statements about CC at all. I\'ve said I\'m making guesses about what I feel he is likely to do, based on a number of different factors. I\'m openly admitting it is a guess, as anyone guessing he is likely to run a new top should admit to themselves as well.
The fact of the matter is, as anyone who has used this board and seminars before knows, that very few horses run new tops in the Derby. If we end up with 7 or 8 horses in the 0 to 1 range, the odds tell us that only one or two of those is likely to move forward on derby day. Seems like many people feel CC will be one of those horses because he is a \"freak\" (a freak with no negative numbers? OK). When I look at CC compared to the others in his range, I see him as one of the least likely to move forward at 10F at CD.
I\'m not necessarily saying CC is going to fall on his face like Goldencents did, his pace profile is much stronger than GC was, though still not as strong as I would like to see compared to other winners like even IHA (though I have not see the pace figs from the SA Derby yet). But anything from being a step off, like GoD was, to completely useless like GC was, or anything in between, spells defeat for CC in this Derby. And even if he were not the favorite, I will be betting on something in that range as the likely outcome.
You\'re obviously emotional attached to this discussion, so I\'ll just let it be. JB and others have shown the holes in your logic, but you\'re going to spend 10,000 words continuing to prove your point.
Dumbing it down and other insults add nothing to your poor logic. You\'re the only one that needs glasses for this discussion, but you continue to squint.
Last thing. You say the old results are irrelevant, because SA has \"new dirt\". You then try to make your point by using the example of a sprinter/miler. If you\'re going to discount the \"old dirt\", and specifically target the \"new dirt\", then your sample size is pretty small.
Good luck with your wagers.