I haven\'t been impressed with any of the horses the last few weekends
Either the numbers have been slow and/or they have had the perfect trips
I think the New York horses are very weak (not flattered by In Trouble yesterday) and the Florida Derby was the weakest I have seen in a while. The Fair Grounds horses couldn\'t be less interesting for me in terms of the Derby. VIT had the easiest pace of any horse on the day yesterday and he still couldn\'t come home in a good time.
The best three year olds this year are in California. Cali Chrome and Candy Boy are both very impressive and the west coast horses have been shipping and winning (ie Hopportunity and Chitu)
I expect Social Inclusion to put on a show against a group of weak horses in the Wood next weekend and assuming he holds together (not a given, there\'s a reason he has only run 2 races in his life), he is the type of brilliant talent that could win the Derby off of three starts
If Social Inclusion doesn\'t hold together physically, I expect the California horses to dominate the derby with either the top few in the Santa Anita Derby and/or the California horses that will likely ship to Arkansas and win the Arkansas Derby to be the one(s) to focus on on the first Saturday in May.
Would love everyone\'s thoughts
Jim,
Tend to agree.Social Inclusion wears fronts and not being sold is a flag,imo,has to ship,hook a tenacious fighter in Samraat while not on GP surface which he obviously loves.Wood defines SI for sure.
Cali Chrome horse another one that has to ship and win off the SA surface.Candy Boy tripped out in last, need to see his next to better gauge.Cali has some with gas for sure Chitu seems to have upside, distance a ? Bayern is fast, missed time.
Very tricky and will really get weird if the main players in the SA Derby and Wood don\'t run well.
Good Luck,
Mike
Mike,
Agree with everything you said
Cali Chrome breezes like a freak job at Los Al so I\'m less worried about surface but am worried about the 1 1/4 there.
Commissioner only dark horse in this group I like.
He\'s only one I have seen that truly wants the distance and needs 1 1/4 to run his best race.
He will likely earn his way into the Derhy in Ark and I like him to make noise at the distance assuming he\'s a price. He ran ok in sunland after that brek. Plus, JB hates him so that makes me like him even more (lol)!!!!
Jim,
I took Bayern at 24-1 an hour and a half before the close yesterday. 22-1 shortly thereafter, and I told my father that some late money knocking this thing down to 20-1 would give me more confidence. Well, the late money came and he\'s now 15-1. Too low, I guess, as it\'s not out of the question that we get a story on DRF.com tomorrow telling us that Bayern simply has too much work to do and won\'t even make the Derby.
But that\'s the risk I took. I like both the top and bottom of the pedigree, and the high cruising speed. And if he does what I think he\'s capable of next week (or the week after), he\'ll be 5-1 on Derby day.
I think Baffert will send Bayern to the Arkansas Derby.
Running against Cali chrome and candy boy is too tall an order for bayern at this stage
It\'s funny. Baffert is loaded as he might send as many as 4 or 5 to the derby and several of them are very live but public sentiment has seemingly turned against him so we aren\'t seeing as much about written about that as we might if Todd was sending 5.
To be clear, I\'m not expressing an opinion on whether he deserves the heat or not (after all the grief I took last year for stuff i posted here, I would like to avoid such angst this year). Just making an observation.
They have been dropping like flies the last few weeks. I am feeling lucky as I took Candy Boy @ 100-1 in January. I jumped on him after seeing his turn of foot on the Cash Call. Enough for me to jump in then. Been fortunate to keep him in training, it is all luck when betting in January futures.
Good luck to all & we will see what happens the first Saturday in May.
Jim
I was as unimpressed as you with all the horses thus past weekend, except one.
Take another look at constitutions race from beginning to end. He will get a relatively bad TG number because he was on the inside but it doesn\'t tell the story. He didn\'t break well, got beat to the spot he wanted by Rosario. He did NOT react kindly to restraint. He pulled on the bit and climbed some into and out of the first turn. He did settle after that. But then he had to move through a relatively tight hole in the stretch. And once he did, he leveled off well.
This horse has only had 3 races, but he has done several things which u rarely see in racing. In his first start he blows the start, rushes madly into contention and instead of fading, he wins. Then he is rank and pulling, a sure sign of death in a race, and he wins anyway.
He has more upside. I am not worried at all about his speed figures. What I do worry about is his inability to break well. Could be fatal in a 20 horse field. He needs an outside draw for the derby.
But he is the one horse that ran this weekend that is interesting to me.
And he won\'t be a bad price, despite being a Pletcher. No gaudy figures and most will feel he doesn\'t have the necessary foundation.
Jim
Jimbo I totally agree with you on Constitution. He was the only horse that impressed me over the weekend. I think this colt has a HUGE upside and when I look at the others all over the country it would not surprise me one bit if it is a year that a horse with 3 lifetime starts and no 2 year old races can win the Derby. I mean I will be honest other then Candy Boy I have not seen anything out there that screams 1 1/4. Not a big fan of Hoppertunity nor am I of anything that has been running in Ark so far. The fairgrounds horses are slow slow. No thanks to a couple NY breds up at Aqu. I mean I guess I could see Tapiture making some noise at CD, but really I haven\'t seen anything up to this point that has made me sit up and say wow, but I thought Constitution\'s FL Derby was as good as we have seen from anything so far. Right now I have Candy Boy ranked 1st and Constitution ranked 2nd and waiting on this coming weekend to see Candy Boy\'s number cause I am pretty sure he will win the SA Derby. Not a fan of CA Chrome, and as for Cairo Prince anyone that saw his gallop out after the Holy Bull knows the horse needed the time off between races cause he shut it down literally three steps after the wire. Still a couple big weekends left but so far Constitution has me standing up and taking notice. Have a good one and good luck to all!!
I think the numbers for the FD will come back okay. They were about a second faster than Devil\'s Cave in her race earlier on the card - she being the brief track record holder at 1 1/16 and coming off a nice graded win. The only horse on the day who blew the doors off time-wise was the sprint winner - and given the past figs of the top three in there and his rail trip - that seems about right.
On Constitution, he saw four things that will help hin on Derby day. He got a face full of dirt most of the way around the track. He got leaned on pretty heavily turning for home. He went through a tight hole when asked, and he didn\'t give way when pressured from a determined horse on his outside.
At this stage, only a really bad draw makes him tossable for me.
AJ,
The Florida should NOT come back with good numbers. The Beyer was 98 or so.
Devil\'s Cave and \"has been\" Unlimited Budget got beat by a can of shit, who was running slow numbers before Saturday. I would not count on that race being the one to justify a good number for the Florida Derby.
Jim
all,
thanks for the interesting thoughts, much appreciated.
I didn\'t like Constitutions race nearly as much as many here seemed to the first few times I watched it but I will go back and watch again in light of the thoughtful comments by many here.
I saw him beating two distanced challenged horses on Saturday after the rail opened up for him
he didn\'t run fast and he didn\'t beat any good horses (or horses that are good at that distance more specifically)
that said, I am respectful of others comments which is why I asked for thoughts so I will reconsider
also, question for Louisville, what don\'t you like about Cali Chrome? you said \"not a fan\" Are you worried about the distance (a legit concern) or something else you don\'t like? I love the horse but don\'t know about the 1 1/4
he\'s fast, has good tactical speed and has beaten horses that have come back to run big races so he checks alot of boxes for me
Another big question that needs to be considered is the \"Florida\" factor, and what happens to these barns traditionally on big \"test\" days
Many may not realize that South Florida received heavy rains from Friday afternoon and through the night prior to FD. Saturday, was after the rain front, race day had gusty winds and was cool.
I expect, these weather factors and their effect on track speed will create some controversy and differing opinions as to speed rating.
Two more considerations Johnny V.: 1) goes three+ wide (on the lead) thru the 1st turn, 2. Leaves the rail open for Constitution in late stretch.
I speculate JV was more concerned about a dead rail than he was in race riding rivals wide.
If true, big positives for Constitution.
Do we know Graham Motion\'s plans for Ring Weekend?
You could see the gusty wind watching the races.
Plants down by the finish line and palm trees in the infield were blowing pretty good.
I don\'t see a dead rail though.Some horses ran bad inside but the Pletcher filly in the Oaks kept going on it during her stretch run and Happy My Way blitzed a field wire to wire while staying on the rail.That surface looked pretty fair-you could win from anywhere.
Sounds like the Calder Derby for Ring Weekend.
He has enough points so why gut him in a better race.
Now I discover that Constitution is what the Ragz Guys call a house horse? I guess that means owned whole/part by clients/Voldemorts Gang.
So since I won\'t get attached to a Pletcher/Voldemort/Attorney set of connections I have to switch my subjective yearning to Toast Of New York - hope he makes the trip.
Yeah, I saw the \"house horse\" thing. Pretty sure they attached the house to the horse, not that the horse came out of the house.
Walden called me the morning of the race, I told him if he moved forward some he had a shot. After the race I texted him asking how much they paid Velasquez (to make that insane move on the first turn, and open up the rail later).
To be clear, it was a joke. But that ride was the difference between the WinStar horse winning and a Derby spot, and third or fourth.
Hey covelj70,
I am not a fan of CA Chrome for a couple reasons yes one is the distance but the other is I don\'t care for the horses he has been in against for the most part. While he has faced Midnight Hawk who yes Candy Boy has as well but look at all those CA Bred races. If he wins the the Ky Derby then I just lose lol no big deal. Won\'t be the first time lol. Heck I don\'t think he will even win the SA Derby much less the one in May! No NY breds and CA breds for me on the first Saturday in May and yes it\'s true no Funny Cide was on any my tickets the year he won. Without looking at the pp\'s and know who is running Candy Boy is the horse to beat this weekend in my opinion. Good luck and take care.
What do people think about Tonalist? As I understand it, he had a very bad trip and all against him when he ran second to the horse that just came back to win the Florida Derby. If that is true, then the horse that beat him coming back to win a Grade I (their race was just a first level allowance race) has to flatter him. I am just thinking he is so lightly raced and not really established any sort of level yet. I guess we will see. If he runs well enough in the Wood to get into the Derby, I have to think he is going to have a great pattern going into the Derby.
The cal bred thing does not bother me at all. this is a decent horse. What do you all think about Coastline?
Coastline looks like a horse that hasn\'t improved this year. The loss to Tanzanite Cat looks really bad now. Lost by 10 in his last dirt try. Came home in 40 seconds on the plastic = pass.
Any thoughts on Toast of NY? Not sure what figure he ran, but I\'m interested.
Kmart
tonalist out of Wood due to possible lung infection
Bred for turf and that ship is brutal so close to derby. I will pass on any horse that has shipped all over the world so close to the race.
pretty sure all the winners in dubai have made little noise in kentucky
As good as you are at \'capping this race Jim I will play devils advocate and write that this years KY derby winner did run this past w/end.
While neither winner has much shot ( the Bayou bred in New Orleans cannot get ten panels in a Sallee van, and the Pletcher does not have enough foundation) the show horse in Hallandale seems very live.
This years crop is very subpar and I suspect a zero could win the roses. General a rod has run that integer.
A son of the solid racehorse Roman Ruler himself a grade one winner who fetched a half a million as a yearling, out of a Darby dan family (4th dam tossed Carocalero a French champion who would run all day without a drink of water) this colt has done little wrong.
Off the pace in Lexington to win clear in his first start double M makes the unusual move and puts the shades on. Robby cannot keep him off the pace and while a bit wide in hot splits he beats them all aside from the last to first favorite dropping out of the breeders cup.
On to south Florida he runs down \"Red\" to win, then drops a photo to that same rival, before an honest third Saturday.
Does he need to improve, sure. His zero in the GP derby was a relatively easy trip and he is already \"home\" in south Louisville. Can he improve, probably.
Maker does his best work in Ky but his comments about this colt are somewhat telling. To wit according to the drf, January, \"he (General a rod) is a big immature colt with a ton of talent\". Then in March Mike is quoted \"he is the whole package, a big good looking colt... a professional push button horse\".
Personally, my own assessment is this colt has a problem with lugging in as he did again Saturday. He also never works in company and I would suggest he needs a rider with softer hands. Rosario will probably bolt for the Winchell homer so the mount is open, perhaps. Mike has promised \"some adjustments\" so we will see.
Disclaimer He is my winter book horse. bbb
Subscribing to the \"I don\'t think the derby winner has had his final prep yet\" maybe a horse named Schoolofhardrocks will enter the picture this weekend. Lots of reasons to throw \"rocks\" at him. First or second and he will be in. I can\'t play favorites this year...
No clue on the Derby winner or if he\'s run his final prep yet.
Only thing I know is the Derby pace will probably be too fast and most of the horses want no parts of a quick paced ten furlongs.
Looking at the top 20 on the points list as of today I like three of them a little bit who might have enough in their bloodlines to handle the trip.
Intense Holiday
Hoppertunity
General A Rod
Intense Holiday should benefit from a faster pace than he\'s seen in the Fairgrounds races.Instead of sitting midpack or closer he can drop way out of it and make one run.
Hoppertunity\'s come a long way in a short time.
Interested to see how he does off the Rebel with the three week turnaround.
General A Rod will look great on paper if he paired his FOY here but he needs to be taken back off the pace some.I like him best of the three with the right ride.
Calvin Borel?
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No clue on the Derby winner or if he\'s run his
> final prep yet.
> Only thing I know is the Derby pace will probably
> be too fast and most of the horses want no parts
> of a quick paced ten furlongs.
>
> Looking at the top 20 on the points list as of
> today I like three of them a little bit who might
> have enough in their bloodlines to handle the
> trip.
>
> Intense Holiday
> Hoppertunity
> General A Rod
>
> Intense Holiday should benefit from a faster pace
> than he\'s seen in the Fairgrounds races.Instead of
> sitting midpack or closer he can drop way out of
> it and make one run.
>
> Hoppertunity\'s come a long way in a short time.
> Interested to see how he does off the Rebel with
> the three week turnaround.
>
> General A Rod will look great on paper if he
> paired his FOY here but he needs to be taken back
> off the pace some.I like him best of the three
> with the right ride.
> Calvin Borel?
Do you view Chitu as a needs the lead type? I think that Chitu may be able to sit back just off the pace (he usually lets one horse go ahead of him, why not a few more in the Derby), and, although his daddy\'s pedigree seems to be speed oriented, his bottomside looks all distance to me. Love that his mother\'s only race was victory at 10 panels in May of her 3yo year (albeit, on turf in a weight for age race at Redcar).
I agree on the pedigree-sprint on top and stamina on the bottom.
Chitu might be okay there.He looked fine going nine furlongs.Don\'t know if the extra furlong helps but it might not hurt him.
He could sit farther back if the pace is nuts but unless they change up the rider it seems like they would let that horse do what he does best.Martin Garcia is pretty aggressive and I\'m guessing that horse likes to mix it up.
The other thing is he\'d have to move forward to contend(depending on what #\'s you use)so I like a few others on the list as of now.
hey there
thanks for the thoughts on ARod
He was my horse for awhile and maybe he should still be
I have him in Vegas at a very big price from back in January so I would love it if he got the job done
that said, I am not as bullish on his prospects after his last two races
he doesn\'t seem to want to pass horses in the stretch
one can make a good argument about his ground loss in the Fla Derby but the other side of the argument is that he had a perfect stalking trip off of moderate fractions and still lost ground in the stretch
I would like to see them take the blinkers off him but trying something new for the first time in the Derby is tough
he breezes without the blinkers and I love how he goes without them
fingers crossed