Today\'s (3/27/2014) last race at Aqueduct caught my interest. The result is not inconceivable if one does more than a glance at. I haven\'t seen the TG analysis or figures and I\'m curious to do so. Maybe they finished just about as predicted?
Some random thoughts, I\'ve yet to organize.
1. It seems incongruous that the crowd favorite - #7 Cake N Cookies went off at 3/5 and only beat one horse. It may be a terrific example of a horse with a fragile ego and the pace handicapper\'s premise that need to lead types who can\'t, just quit and become non contenders. This filly has done this before and at a shorter distance just two races back. So why 3/5 when it is obvious there may be a hole in this one.
2. It seems suspicious that this occurred in the last race of the card, in that so many horizontal bets are affected. If, as a trainer, one is faced with the dilemma of - if the horse can get the lead, we\'ll probably win if not, we won\'t win anything! I guess one has to try - but it makes me wonder about the horses health? Maybe the horse injured itself, in which case it seems that s/b made public. A bad bleeder?
3. Did the crowd make this one 3/5 or is that attributable to large bets. The winner is also a little bit of an enigma. On second look not so much of a surprise but not one that imbues confidence. Then the #8 with the 10 lb bug boy. Weight really does matter a bunch, or a star is born, second time starters is a great angle to bad there are so many of them.
For those who handicapped and/or played this race I would be interested in your thoughts on an otherwise slow day prior to an interesting weekend.
Tavasco,
Re: Point 3.
Just from an odds perspective - The fave was also 3/5 in the DD Will Pays, so win odds don\'t appear to be the result of a single plunger. The winner was 8-1 in the Will Pays, also in line with the win odds. The #8 was pounded in the win pool vis-a-vis the Will Pays (10-1 vs. 16-1), an unusual occurrence and almost always a sign the horse is going to run a good one.