Me: \"Len, I\'m not interested in how good you say your 4 1/2 furlong Keenland figures are. Just tell me how you make them\".
Len: \"Look, we\'ve done very well betting with those figures. I guess we\'ll just have to give the money back\".
Maury: \"If you do, give it to me\".
That one almost sent me over the edge.
The only possible way to produce those figures would be to refer to past pars and factor weight and trips. But they are truly \"broken off races\" because they have no variant nor performance reference as you\'ve stated. Additionally, with the recent phenomena of faster times for younger horses (all horses actually) you can\'t go by the pars from past years. My guess is that Rags wants to give their players a number for all races as a \"value\" consideration...even if those numbers aren\'t particularly accurate. I suppose if they can get two or three baby races a card. They can attempt to create some kind of comparative variant. But, theres not as much science. There can\'t be.
I like Grey. Grey is easy to follow. You can see Grey on the track and you can see Grey in the pedigree. Let\'s talk about Grey. Especially as Grey applies to the Santa Anita Cap. Theres two Greys in the race. One of them has a ton of unraced pedigree. I mean no wins, no places, no shows, no STARTS kinda unraced pedigree. The truly empty type. In fact this animal has an unraced broodmare sire that was strictly speed on speed and as I said unraced.
But whats interesting to me is this animal has already won at 10 marks. Kinda looks like it did without even trying. Fractions looked slow. (Figs will help in evaluating.) Theres no real reason to think this animal should find enough additional speed to be a serious factor. Unless you consider Grey. I don\'t think the 10 mark win was on the basis of the Grey broodmare sire. But what this animal does have is 1953 and 1954 Kentucky Derby Grey. Even the Grey that traces back to \"Warfare\" is Determine Grey. It appears to me nearly all this animals Grey has its near origin in Native Dancer and Determine. That my friends is the good kind of Grey. Its 10 mark Grey and its potentially 50 year throwback Grey. If you\'re prepared to believe in that type of thing. I\'m not saying this animal is gonna win. All I\'m saying is that it sure is Grey.
CtC
Post Edited (03-04-04 23:36)
if they run 2:05, with a :27.2 final quarter, i give her a small chance...... seriously, what is the purpose here? the trainer says the owner likes getting his name in the paper.
I\'m not looking at figs yet, but I tend to agree that the time from the Alabama will not win the Cap. Saratoga can get \"heavy\" though and I believe it was \"heavy\" on Alabama Day.
Puzzlement went 10 marks that day in 2:03:50 and beat Volponi. Island was 7 lengths behind that without adjustment.
I never listen to trainers. I don\'t know what \"The owner likes his name in the papers\" means. That could mean a lot of things. I like this trainer and a start with a quality horse is a valuable thing, you don\'t want to waste one. She should be getting more weight. Its a laughable the Breeders Cup Winner is only spotting a filly 8 pounds. I don\'t like that, she deserves that just on her sex. she should be in receipt of 12 pounds easily. This is a handicap.
i just think they have a very fast filly, possibly good enough to challenge the best going short (or maybe even at a mile on turf). why this route? i will actually be rooting for her if she runs, but i really hope they scratch..... i had puzzlement that day. for some reason, i thought that race would collapse. the race collapsed completely.