Every race has different variables, but Fire Slam\'s stock went up a little on the basis of the one mile Southwest Stakes in my opinion. Two Down Automatic finished second in that race beaten only 3/4\'s of a length by Smarty Jones. At the same distance Firm Slam had beaten Two Down by about 3.
Two Down is a Smoke Glacken and although he was getting to Smarty, an El Prado was getting to him. I thought the time of the Southwest and an allowance race won by Pure American were both good. Gran Prospect was crushed in that other race.
Smarty looked a little vulnerable, but he won and there is some evidence/reason to indicate it may not have been his best effort. So we\'ll see.
You got to love the New Orleans Handicap, other than a Breeders Cup Race, when has a finer group of horses been gathered? I have no idea what I\'m gonna do and I\'ve been factoring this race for a week.
I recently stated I discount what a trainer says about his horse. Now here is Dollase just absolutely brimming with glowing words about Ten Most Wanted. The man can flat out train and the horse is a good horse. But what flattened me was that he stated Ten lost the Derby because he had a vertebra go out of place after a bump during the race and that he couldn\'t hardly jog afterwards. What the hell is that? He also thinks an even worse bump with Funny Cide threw him out of his game on Breeders Cup Day:
http://drf.com/news/article/53663.html
So Ten doesn\'t like contact? Tuff, get used to it. I think they ought to maul him. I think they all ought to crowd around shouting: \"my back hurts\" and see if his back goes out just due to the psychic stress of it all. This is the big leagues Wally and theres no crying in baseball. Theres no stupid excuses either. If this horse really has that gimp a back it could go out at any time. If that story is true this horse is a lost bet or a carcass on the track waiting to happen. Note he lost both those races coming from far outside and I\'m assuming the bumps occured while positioning to save ground. I wonder if he\'ll be impacted by a deja vu type flashback Sunday when he breaks from outside and tries for position? Or will he just drop way back to save his aching vertebrae?
This horse may be the favorite. I was all over his p.p.s and I like him, but heck I like everyone in this race. Sometimes you do whats called \"Chaos Handicapping\". Theres a calculated risk you\'ll get burned by it, but after listening to the Dollase tripe theres no way in hades I\'m betting on this horse. I don\'t even care if theres some scintilla of truth to his inane comments.
And then there were seven.
Hut one, Hut two
lol
CtC
Post Edited (02-28-04 21:03)
The big three (FC, PR and TMW) will pull all the money in the New Orleans Hdcp and of those three, TMW certainly looks like the best but you have to wonder if he will fire right off the bench (his TG stats say Dollase is 50/50 to have his horses run a top or better off the bench). He indeed may be one of the top handicap horses this year along with Perfect Drift and MDoro but I would be willing to take a shot against him in here although I do think he is indeed the one to beat.
The value looks to be Saint Liam. At the weights, he is faster than all but TMW\'s isolated top (he is as fast as TMW). He had a solid line as a 3yo before Dutrow and has really \"blossomed\" as a 4yo since joining his new stable. There is always a chance he may react to his last 2 big efforts but this is probably the best horse in a stable that has has had about 50% of its last 88 starters equal or better their tops and he comes into the race after three nice LOCAL works with the last an eye-catching, breezing bullet in 58 and 2/5 over a track that can be tricky for some to handle but seems to suit the Saint just fine. He also has a good post and should be able to work a good trip.
He could easily go off well above his morning line of 8/1 given the popularity of the big 3 and that this will be his first stakes start of the year. Finally, note that Dutrow has had prior success shipping to FG in the past with 9 of 14 starters equaling or bettering their effective tops.
It should be a fun race to watch and the fact that it is not being run at a \"Magna\" track makes it that much nicer.
Good luck to everyone (particularly those who key on Saint Liam:-)
Chris
To me he looks like a horse that was always trying to play \"catch up\" last year. No 2 year starts then right after a maiden win he was thrown into the Arkansas Derby. There was a obviously a reason for that, but it was too much too soon.
They brought him back to his conditions and he ran into the Wicked Witchcraft colt on a sloppy track. I think Wild n\' Wicked probably wired. I can\'t remember, but loose speed on a wet track is an equation for a wire to wire score on many days. A good second. I don\'t know where the winner is now, but he had lots of potential. Then a big win, then another stakes try on a dragstrip surface. Three year performances at the distance being exceeded. Perhaps a stalking trip that never had a chance to overcome the leader. A game placing. Then a turf try. Theres lots of turf breeding in Ballado and Devil\'s Bag, but it didn\'t work out. Maybe the trainer thought he wasn\'t as good a dirt horse as he might of been. Then a wide loss at Saratoga to a decent horse but a layoff thereafter suggesting something may have been amiss.
Thereafter a trainer change. Now handled by \"Son of leading trainer\". Two wide recent wins in hand suggesting good current form, the later of which in competitive time. How much faster could he have run? Did the effort take something out of him?
Then a breezing work at the track in 58:2 and the most interesting thing to me, he\'s been at the Fair Grounds for a month apparently acclimating for this race. All of which add up to support the cautious and reserved recommendation to...
Notify derby1492 to not talk about horses im considering...lol I feel like TGJB after the Rag board posters called the numbers of his future bets.
He\'s quick with a lightish impost and should be right on the pace. Theres serious competition in here and its a major step up in class. 8-1 will be fair odds.
I know, I gave you credit for the Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria.
:)
CtC
SHHHHH!! Saint Liam is a bet here at morning line odds or even a few notches less. Love the fact that he has been here in Louisiana for nearly a month, was pointed here since december and oh yeah, is trained by one of the hottest trainers right now Dutrow. He gets weight from slower horses, should get a stalking trip at a track where speed is pretty good going long and is the second fastest except for the iso top on TMW. His two efforts have come nearly 30 days apart, he\'s had 6 weeks since last and a pair up at the weights makes him a winner. Almost too good to be true? I hope not.
michael
Hey Mr Time Machine Man Derby 1592,
If the St Comes Marching In against this field then you really are from outerspace and we\'re changing your name to Derby 9292.
As in--In the Year 9292 if man is still alive, if woman can survive WHAT THE HELL ARE MY SHEETS GOING TO LOOK LIKE??? LOL
Good Luck Fellas.
It almost looks too easy and when it does, POW smack dab in the kisser! I\'ll be betting him to win it, but hope he hangs on for a slice in the tri. LOL
I have a tough time getting involved in races where major contenders under ordinary circumstances (like TMW and Peace Rules) are either coming off a layoff or returned quite a bit short. You never really know what to expect.
I think virtually everyone is almost ready throw in the towel on Funny Cide. If those other 2 are off their best game (which is possible), he has a chance to win here even if he doesn\'t improve to his peak. IMHO, that last race wasn\'t as bad as it looks. He made a serious bid against the best horse in the country (MDO) before weakening. I think there\'s no one in here like that at this time. At a square price, I could get interested. No idea what his odds will look like. One thing is for certain. If he doesn\'t get a big piece here, then he\'s a bet against from here on out. The reason I am slightly interested is that I think the towel may have been thrown in by many handicappers one race too soon. It is not clear yet.
Sir Cherokee is also interesting. His Ark Derby last year was a darn good race at that time of year for a 3yo. He has returned with two wins against weaker, but I think he has something left in the tank. The recent work was sharp. He may be ready for a lifetime top. It\'s a matter of if that will be good enough to win against these. At a big price he\'s also worth a look on top and underneath.
I think after that the race is pretty wide open and obvious - everyone\'s merits and question marks are clear. I am unlikely to bet any of the others unless something looks really screwy on the board.
Nice race.
Post Edited (02-29-04 22:07)
with six horses within a few lengths of each other, anyhting could happen here. at his best, at the weights, i put SF right there. from post one, with JR aboard, i think he should get the trip. SF to win. i have to join the rest, and put SL close. nice weights, nice timing, and nice post. i will also use TMW. i\'m not sure what day is going to do, being a stalker from the outside post, in a race full of stalkers. the horse fits on figures though. exacta box SF, SL, and TMW.
good luck all ......
If Sir Cherokee had made the Derby I think he would have been my bet. If that Arkansas Derby was legit and I don\'t see how it couldn\'t be, this horse had monster potential. If the race was at Oaklawn I think he\'d be my choice today.
Seattle Fitz is just an improving horse. What can you say? I\'ve liked him ever since the Clark when he was the only horse to hang around after being near the front. He certainly can win this race.
I\'ve always liked Funny Cide and he could do it. I\'ve just had this feeling though that ever since the Belmont works he won\'t relax training or in races. If you try and pace him in the race it ties him up. I think he wants to go, go, go. Thats too bad because if he\'d allow himself to be tractable I think he\'d be an awesome horse. But I don\'t see evidence of that for this race. Maybe he\'ll go to the front and wire them today. I\'ll have a small bet with him and Saint Liam hooked up. Just for old times sakes.
I\'m also gonna box in a very small way the two highest odds horses at post time. Just to make a betting statement about this race...lol Its looking like it will be Spanish Empire and Comic Truth. I\'ve undoubtedly bet horses with much less of a chance.
I\'m looking at the odds right now and I\'m a little surprised that Sir Cherokee is this price. I was expecting a much bigger price. Haven\'t changed my view that he\'s live, but I can\'t take him at this price when I am projecting a lifetime top just to put him in the thick of it. I would really need 15-1 or more in a field this deep with so many question marks. There may be some value in here somewhere, but right now nothing is screaming at me. It looks like I\'m going to have to just watch.
nice call.
Nice call guys my crow is warming in the oven as I post.
Silver Charm
I was a little surprised Seattle Fitz went off the slight favorite. But I think I understand why.
I didn\'t bet Saint Liam to win I wanted closer to 8-1. I think derby1492 ruined my odds. But it worked out for the best. I didn\'t bet to place either I insist on 9-1 on the tote board to place bet.
I thought the Trifecta was very generous with those three horses.
If Ten Most Wanted bumped as many times in races as Funny Cide does he\'d be a psychotic nut bag.
Did anyone really believe that Derby vertebra b.s. Dollase was yammering about when Ten ran five weeks later in the Belmont? The horse doesn\'t like contact and if you can rough him up or make him think he\'s in tight I think he\'s a head case. But Funny Cide may be too.
Post Edited (02-29-04 19:03)
1. Seattle Fitz - on his best he fit well here, especially at the weights with JR aboard from post 1. HOWEVER, there really was no resaon to believe that SF would be at his best. mclaughlin has been cranking up his horses at GP to the max, and on three weeks rest off a brutal race, some regression should have been expected. add in the ship, and a bit of pattern handicapping should have made this one too iffy. bad handicapping
2. Funny Cide - expected finish, and a relatively easy toss. his derby run was a perfect stalking trip over a speed favoring strip, and his preakness run was wildly overrated. we have seen his top going nine furlongs or longer.... maybe time to cut back to a mile (or battle the state breds).
3. Spanish Empire - drifting late in his fast race, then tires next, and now wants to stretch out against these?
4. Saint Liam - predicted finish. would have won if bailey had not wacked his horse lefty and knocked SL sideways at the end. bailey has pulled this trick hundereds of times though, and for some reason unknown to me, will never even get an inquiry for doing it (the inquiry today was for the first tyrn incident, he blinked because prado claimed).
5. Joe made a nice prediction a few days ago, predicting PR would return to his best. with the decent rest, and ship out to La, that could have been expected. I thought there might be somewhat of a speed duel here, and i thought PR might get a bit leg weary at the end. in fact did get just a bit tired (13.1 last eighth), but bailey was so brilliant getting the horse to relax up until the stretch run, that all but two of the horses were eliminated by the top of the stretch. nice odds today, and a sharp handicapper could have scored big. bad handicapping here.
6. Sir Cherokee - some speed in the race, but no reason to expect he would get to close into a wild :45 speed duel. aside from the Ark derby, he just looked too slow. expected finish.
7. Comic Truth - expected finish. too slow.
8. Ten Most Wanted - bad trip was possible. a stalker starting from the outside with four or five other stalkers is bound to get a bad trip. i used the horse because he was the fastest, but a better gambler would have tossed the horse at low odds. bad handicapping.
i had SL in most spots, but misreads on SF and PR cost me.
Here we go again with another "NO-CALL" from the Fair Grounds stewards toady. This was the perfect opportunity for the stewards to step up and deliver a sound ruling. The New Orleans Handicap is another example of repeated blown calls by the FG stewards, who have had a long history of blowing calls and taking care of their own (local colony vs. outsiders) whenever sound and impartial rulings are required.
I am just going to lick my wound and get ready for Wednesday - $1.4M carryover at Santa Anita.
I don\'t think there\'s too much to be learned by this result. Not only was the race roughly run on the first turn, pretty much no one made a move at any point. Peace Rules got loose on the lead and the top 4 went 1,2,3 and 4 around the track.
Yes, the Fairgrounds can play to front end horses. It has at times during the last couple years. If you played the speed you probably came out alright.
Saint Liam winning wasn\'t critical for me, but I understand that some are upset with the inquiry, I didn\'t have a great view of the race so I can\'t really comment on it, other than the principals involved aren\'t bent out of shape over it. (Prado was upset. The view of the replay I saw was ambiguous. I\'ve been the victim of both no calls and horrendous calls by the stewards. All you can say is the track helped Peace Rules but with the Five pounds you\'d think Saint Liam could have gone by clean. I do think speed carried very well by that race)
I checked the Red Board, Funny and Liam were even stronger plays than I imagined on T-Graph. The figs I had did not have them scored as well. T-Graph dominated my source on this race. If I was using T-Graph I\'d might be partying til next weekend.
Ten Most Wanted took some bumps again and the way the track was playing, with his post factored, the set up was not ideal for him. Neither was the fact his big number was at 10 marks. But, I get the distinct impression that he really doesn\'t like to be bumped. Caveat: His Travers score. But there are horses if you bump em around a little it takes the heart out of them and I think Ten is certainly in that Ballpark. I think Wally Dollase has a vivid imagination too.
Wally, how did you treat Ten for his vertebra problem?
lol
CtC
Post Edited (03-01-04 06:11)
Never seen this before at the race track but: If Peace rules had been DQ\'ed for bumping in the stretch and St Liam DQ\'ed for bearing out on the first turn would Peace Rules paid out as the winner despite being DQ\'ed and placed second???
Say What???
Not to take anything from the efforts of the top 2 (both horses and jocks) , but one of them had to be held accountable to the fact that at least 3 horses were eliminated going into the clubhouse turn.
No one can be sure how this affected FUNNY CIDE who pinballed off the rail. I blame part of this on Santos who broke alertly and should have went to the lead from his inside post. Why does FC\'s connections insist on rating this horse? His best races were when they just let him go.
Congrats to anyone who nailed a nice exacta payoff.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Actually, something like this just happened a few weeks ago at Bay Meadows. The answer is that it would depend on the state laws that apply to Fairgrounds -- At Bay Meadows, a race finished 5-2-4. There was an inquiry, the #2 against the #5 and the #4 against the #2. The stewards ruled the #5 was dq\'d from first to second for interference with the #2. Then, the stewards ruled the #2 was dq\'d from first and placed third for interfering the #4. The final result was 5-4-2.
The reason, according to state law is that the stewards are to take each indicent in the order it happened, in the case at bay meadows, the 5 did interfer with the 2, then the 2 interefered with the 4. So the 5, while being dq\'d, still ended up the official winner.
looked to me like Day tried to get the three wide position from SC, and the rider of SC stood his ground. after a few bumps between those two, SC swerved in and caused the chain reaction (SC then bounced off one of the other horses and swerved out, taking TMW with him). the trainer of SC was irate after the race, blamed everything on Day... i didn\'t see FC hit the rail, but he got bumped pretty good.......
Bill,
Your exactly right. I saw that race and the 3-5 favorite that ran Off-the-Board was ridden by Ronnie Hansen.
That must have been some ride by Hansen.............he\'s been deceased for several years. That guy was my absolute favorite jockey in No Cal. Also, thanks to all of you who picked Saint Liam. My buddy liked PR and the exacta came in pretty nice. I hope you guys don\'t mind me bandwagoning your pick!! Looking forward to Big Cap weekend.........do they still sell TG at the Santa Anita Newstand??
I\'m glad someone hit the perfecta.
I remember reading about Hansen\'s death. They found his body in the sea breakwall days after his car was abandoned. Did anything ever come out further about that?
But this post is proof to me that discussing picks pre race is not wise unless its one minute to post...lol Though the lowish odds actually saved me money. I think for the sake of discussion keeping it to vulnerable favorites is probably the best policy. I had a horse at Calder once. He was going to be 25-1 and I left it out to some of my gambling friends a day or two pre race he was gonna win. My gambling friends have lots of gambling friends and that horse went off at 8-5. He placed...lol
I need to see a good quality replay of the New Orleans. I\'m reading all kinds of reports now of how bad it was and i just didn\'t see it real clearly. Nothing is on t.v. right now. It sounds like Bailey did cross over while essentially not being fully clear. I dont know, haven\'t seen it. It doesn\'t really matter its over.
Heres Dollase on Ten:
\"He\'s fine. We\'ll draw a line through that one and go on to the next one,\" said trainer Wally Dollase on Monday. \"When he gets nailed like that, maybe he gets discouraged.\"
Ya think? but hows his vertebrae?
Post Edited (03-02-04 01:59)
\"....do they still sell TG at the Santa Anita Newstand??
Yes, on weekends--Friday through Sunday. On Wednesday and Thursday, TG is on sale right near the clubhouse entrance escalator. Signs at the newstand will direct you.
Thanks Alan.
Aw Cmon Chuckles, I\'m a guppy, not a whale. Talking about horses like SL helps me learn more about TG. Sure I cashed a ticket, but it also makes me visit the Red Board room to see what exactly it was that some of you liked. Also, lots of horses get bet that don\'t get discussed on the forum. Just look at it as a bonus ROW.
This article has a lot about Ron Hansen\'s death. I didn\'t realize he rode 20% winners. Thats a fantastic career percentage. But I understand \"know nothings\" little joke now. I never bet Bay Meadows or Golden Gate. The times I have, I\'m clueless:
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/7220681.htm
The police say he was driving his car on a bridge, caused a roll over, drove another mile and then abandoned his car. Police say alot of things they can\'t prove. It sounds like thats all speculation.
Hansen apparently had done some time for DUI and had told friends he never would never do so again. It sounds like Hansen was smart enough to realize there were no eye witnesses to the accident and smart enough to know he was probably gonna be tested for alcohol. Apparently he wasn\'t smart or sober enough to make his egress through the swampy water without finding trouble of some sort.
The other folks were fine. Theres lots of ways to lose a race or leave the racetrack of life. Lots of ways. God Bless Him.
Post Edited (03-03-04 06:25)