I can\'t begin to express how silly I think that is.
Meanwhile General Arod is 20-1 on the same morning line
It\'s only a morning line so it doesn\'t matter at all but that\'s as silly as anything I have ever seen in this game
Jim,
I think you are discounting Top Billing a little too much. His line will look pretty good going into the derby if he moves slightly forward in the Florida Derby.
I think his FOY will probably be around 1 1/2 or 2 so a 1/2 to 1 in the Florida Derby will be perfect.
At 1 1/4 at Churchill he has that big move which will start around that final turn and with the long stretch I think he is a major player.
I did play him in the derby futures at 13-1.
Always appreciate your input.
George
Top billing being co favored is silly in one way and yet not so much in another.
If the ML makers job is to forecast bettors and not results, then he may be right. Never seen so many \"experts\" and \"pros\" jumping on a horse off a very mediocre performance. Haven\'t read anybody discredit him Jim, except u and I here.
He is a horrific bet at anywhere near 8-1 IMO but I wouldn\'t discount him yet. He has the right style for the race and his previous race was very good IMO. Much better than the fig he earned. If he just had an off day on Saturday, he could certainly run better next time and be a top contender. But he would have to run much better next time, which makes a fair line closer to 20-1 IMO.
But he is on the \"medium list\". Just not the \"short list\" for now.
Short list for now for me is very uninteresting. Can\'t find a \"bomb\". Cairo prince and a healthy shared belief. Maybe Mexicoma at a price. No honor code. Another over rated horse, off a \"gift win\" in the Remsen with an awful ride by Saez in more than one regard. First, not using the horses tactical speed and then hand riding in the stretch like the race was won. Silly.
Agree with your take on the odds. 8-1 makes you the third or fourth choice coming out of the gate. In February, it\'s just silly - on any horse. The Derby favorite will be around 5-1 this year, for God\'s sake. Who makes these bets?
Also agree that Mexikoma may be worth a flyer. Even if gaining position by passing tired rivals, he closed on some nice horses - after nearly a 4 month layoff. Connections have some work to do finding the right spot (Louisiana Derby?).
After watching the replay of the FOY five times. It is clear to me that Top Billing leaves that race as much the best prospect for the Kentucky Derby.
Considering that the KD is 3/16 of a mile longer than the 1+1/16 FOY and Top Billing was closing ground all the way down the stretch it looked, to my old eyes, that the lead pair would have certainly been caught long before a finish line set at 1+1/4. But some say one can\'t compare races at different distances surfaces, etc. and I say neither of the 1st two look to be ratable nor able to run off like a War Emblem.
I will say it was an incredible race neck and neck the entire way.
The shame is that Kentucky Derby qualifying points are awarded to horses that won\'t be competitive on the 1st Saturday in May. These horses (even though General A Rod has the magic Mr. Prospector in the sire line and Wildcat Red has the magic in the dam\'s line along with Personal Ensign) so ah duh why don\'t they give qualifying points for the Hutcheson?
What we saw Saturday was another rendition of Uncle Mo vs Hansen vs Verrazano, et al. Brilliant precocious milers who can stretch their early foot another 1/16 on a speed favoring track. As ajkreider pointed out the inside early speed bias was even more pronounced at the Fairgrounds.
Consequently, (IMO) we have three possibly four horses from this weekend who could be serious Derby threats depending upon who can get in. Top Billing and Intense Holiday nobody was catching them and against the bias with ground loss. Mexicoma was encouraging for the same reasons. Plus Constitution.... he couldn\'t have been much more impressive (an some thought Tonalist was fast) and gives the all others pool entry a horse to get excited about.
So why give points in what are essentially long sprint races to qualify for running in a STAMINA based triple crown. Simply put - run preps at the classic distances! Then we could speculate with meaningful figures.
But that is not the system nor the tradition. In hindsight those of us who backed Orb last spring or the last minute, need not think we were smart we were lucky, That race was an aberration because of the pace meltdown and as Orb subsequently proved, he was nothing special, just a plodder who got lucky on the first Saturday in May.
I\'m really surprised at the line. 6-1 on all other 3yos seems way too generous. I\'m guessing 3-1 or 4-1 is more realistic (similar to last year) and the individual horses will be higher as a result.
Wondering if we could again request a few more to be tossed in, thanks.
Tonalist
Midnight Hawk
Chitu
Hoppertunity
Commanding Curve
Mexikoma