I posted this on Twitter and got a fair amount of pushback
The two fastest horses in the Fountain of Youth on the TGs ran 1/2 like they should have. Top Billing and Commissioner weren\'t in the same zip code at wildcat red and Arod so why was it the bias that produced the result and not the faster horses?
Pletchers 2 that won the 6th and 9th were the logical choices given the tg figs and patterns and Normandy invasion came from off the pace in the 5th.
I just don\'t see any results on the day that didn\'t make perfect sense to me
I didn\'t bet all of the winners because I don\'t bet short prices so not red boarding at all. I\'m just trying to figure out why so many are trying to discredit wildcat red and Arod and upgrade the performance of top billing?
Top billing had a great ground saving trip and a wicked pace to close into. He just got beat by better horses, not a bias
We won\'t get a better trip in the derby than he got in that race, I will bet on that for sure.
Everything will change as the distances stretch out but I thought the best horses won the race on Saturday and I\'m surprised they aren\'t getting more credit.
Whenever multiple horses on a single race day stretch out and go wire-to-wire -- no matter what their odds are, bias comments will be made. I happen to subscribe to a bias as the times were too fast including a track record by a horse coming off of a long layoff.
Closers like MexiKoma (running against what I perceive was a bias) were impressive to me (as were the winners).
I\'m with ya Jim, simply amazed by the group-think regarding bias. The horses that were last and 2nd last in the FOY closed to be 3rd and 4th, while being slower on paper. I\'m not sure what more you could want to indicate a fair track.
The 4 dirt races before that were won by very logical favorites, most of them odds on.
I\'m the first person to latch on to a bias and try to go with the flow in hopes of cashing a bet, but to me bias exists when horses that shouldn\'t be winning on paper suddenly are. That\'s when you start looking.
Jim
I think it was pretty clear when reviewing all the dirt races that the track was extremely kind to speed.
That said, the kudos to top billing are crapola IMO. Rosario gave him a beautiful ground saving trip from that post and he was out closed sort of by the bomb who came 4th. Top billing ran mediocre at best.
I do think a couple other horses running against the bias are worth following back. The Clemente horse that chased constitution likely was out of his element chasing early and he still ran well late considering the chase. I also think Mexicoma ran well late in that race. The pace was slow and controlled on that track and he still ran on well. As opposed to top billing who got a vicious and contested pace to run into.
The jerkins horse who chased in the Davons dale ran very well too. Solis scrubbed on her for almost a mile and she never quit. That Pletcher winner was clearly bias aided and very mediocre in victory. Would not be afraid to take a shot at her next time at underlaid odds.
I think the fact that the pace was contested and quick in the fountain of youth means u can\'t discredit the top 2. Although as far as going forward can\'t say I would like either horse going any further distance. Wildcat red looks and is bred to be a sprinter. General A Rod is bred to go further but I can\'t help but feel like if he was a true 1 1/4 horse he is supposed to go by wild cat red. I don\'t think I can forgive him for that. Maybe 1 1/8 in the Florida derby is within his grasp but he also got run over late by conquest Titan at Churchill fairly easily and I don\'t think that horse is a true contender. Just not feeling general a rod will run better as the distances get longer.
But the good news is that u can safely scratch off every horse that ran at the fairgrounds this weekend. An awful performance by the colts.
Starting to think Cairo prince went up in stature this weekend by not racing.
Jim
Jimbo,
The \"bomb\" who finished 4th had a TG 4 in his first start as a 3yo. That 4 slightly exceeded his 3yo top of 5 which had a TU notation attached to it.
Reacted to a 7 1/2 on the synthetic and returned to the dirt with decent timing.
Top Billing, on the other hand, had paired 5 3/4\'s coming into the FOY. A nice pattern for sure but still slower that 2 of 3 East Hall\'s races.
So why wouldn\'t one expect East Hall to sort of \"outfinish\" Top Billing? Other than the poor post, somewhat of a no name jock and low profile connections and huge odds......??...he appeared capable of running faster than TB.
The FOY fact is that the 2 fastest TG numbers ran 1st and 2nd with the fastest sheet number winning. Both at decent odds.
Sometimes what seems complicated is actually pretty simple.
Tread,
You said what I took 6 twitter posts and a wordy tg post to say absolutely perfectly and in about 10 percent of the words
Bias exists when horses that shouldn\'t be winning win and than didn\'t happen
My English professor from college would be impressed by you and embarrassed by me (again)
Jimbo,
Pretty much agree with everything you said
General arod was off a bit of a layoff and chasing a faster horse playing that ones game but for sure the 1 1/4 is in question.
Thanks everyone for the thoughts
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim
>
> I think it was pretty clear when reviewing all the
> dirt races that the track was extremely kind to
> speed.
>
> That said, the kudos to top billing are crapola
> IMO. Rosario gave him a beautiful ground saving
> trip from that post and he was out closed sort of
> by the bomb who came 4th. Top billing ran
> mediocre at best.
>
> I do think a couple other horses running against
> the bias are worth following back. The Clemente
> horse that chased constitution likely was out of
> his element chasing early and he still ran well
> late considering the chase. I also think
> Mexicoma ran well late in that race. The pace was
> slow and controlled on that track and he still ran
> on well. As opposed to top billing who got a
> vicious and contested pace to run into.
>
> The jerkins horse who chased in the Davons dale
> ran very well too. Solis scrubbed on her for
> almost a mile and she never quit. That Pletcher
> winner was clearly bias aided and very mediocre in
> victory. Would not be afraid to take a shot at her
> next time at underlaid odds.
>
> I think the fact that the pace was contested and
> quick in the fountain of youth means u can\'t
> discredit the top 2. Although as far as going
> forward can\'t say I would like either horse going
> any further distance. Wildcat red looks and is
> bred to be a sprinter. General A Rod is bred to go
> further but I can\'t help but feel like if he was a
> true 1 1/4 horse he is supposed to go by wild cat
> red. I don\'t think I can forgive him for that.
> Maybe 1 1/8 in the Florida derby is within his
> grasp but he also got run over late by conquest
> Titan at Churchill fairly easily and I don\'t think
> that horse is a true contender. Just not feeling
> general a rod will run better as the distances get
> longer.
>
> But the good news is that u can safely scratch off
> every horse that ran at the fairgrounds this
> weekend. An awful performance by the colts.
>
> Starting to think Cairo prince went up in stature
> this weekend by not racing.
>
> Jim
Rail was a pretty good place to be. Made a pretty good move on the Chief in the Davona against God-and-country himself (even WITH Solis, which says a lot, in my mind) . . . but Mr. Untouchable was hogging the rail. On a fair track, I win.
Jimbo -
Two points:
The Risen Star time was only half a length slower (at roughly equal weights) than the handicap horses ran in the Mineshaft that followed it.
It\'s only February.
Bit
I would make a different comparison than the Handicap race after the Risen Star. That race was slow. Won by a horse that the ROTW said was too slow.
The filly race earlier in the card was better than the Risen Star. never a good sign, unless Untapable is the next Rachel Alexander, which I seriously doubt...
And February is almost over. Time to start making a short list, or at least a \"medium list\"....
Jim
Bit,
I hear you that it\'s only February but most of the horses that ran on Saturday will only have 1 more race before the Derby so if they haven\'t run fast enough or close to fast enough yet, I think it\'s agressive to look at them as a legitimate Derby contender.
As is discussed often on this board every year around Derby time, very few horses run a new top in the Derby so it\'s tough to play a horse in the Derby to have to run a new top to win. And so if you haven\'t run at least a 2 or so already and you only have one more start left, you are either looking for a horse to make a big jump in the final race and not bounce in the Derby or run a new top in the Derby, both of which are unlikely (though obviously both have been done before so not impossible)
Obviously each year is different and \"rules\" are broken all the time but it\'s getting pretty late in the game for horses that haven\'t run a good number yet so I am with Jimbo in that it\'s ok to start making some \"medium\" lists if not \"short lists\" of those with a real shot at this point.
Jim -
I don\'t disagree with what you\'ve said, but I\'m guessing Intense Holiday ran about a 2. The others would need major improvement.
Jimbo -
I think the fairer comparison with the filly race is with the fillies who finished 9 lengths in arrears of Untapable. (As someone has said once or twice on this board, \"You have to look at all the horses.\") Those fillies should have been running a TG 5 or 6 and would have been 7 lengths or so behind the Risen Star winner.
Both -
It\'s been said before, but I really enjoy the contributions you guys make to this board.
covelj70 Wrote:
> \"Bias exists when horses that shouldn\'t be winning
> win and than didn\'t happen\"
I totally disagree with this statement. A bias can be present on a track even when the horses that should be winning are winning.
Even a horse that is suppose to win a race can be aided by a track bias and make that effort look better then it in fact is or was. Just saying not trying to butt heads or make waves I always enjoy reading these forums and listening to peoples opinions. Thanks
I get your point but how can we know there is a bias if the fastest horses/horses with the best patterns are winning the races?
3rd was about where Top Billing was projected to finish, a bunch of lengths behind the top 2, that\'s what happened. I just don\'t see how we can read a bias into that.
The one race on the card where the best horse was a stalker/closer, the stalker/closer won (i.e. Normandy Invasion).
Otherwise, the horse that was the most obvious on the TGs won every race.
So could there have been a bias? Sure, what the heck do I know, my point and what I thought Tread articulated alot more eloquently than I did was that you can\'t call for a bias when the horse that was supposed to win every race won every race, including one of the closers.
this has been a fun discussion, I enjoy these kind of threads alot
The right way to look at this is to look at what figures horses ran, not where they finish.
Tell you what, Castellano knows where the rail is. Smart rider.
JB,
I actually don\'t think that\'s right.
If I believed in a bias on Saturday, which I don\'t, then I would believe that , in the fountain of youth, Wildcat Red and Arod got faster figures than they should on a \"neutral\" track. To the extent you base the numbers for the others on the figures of the top two, then the entire race could be upgraded by the \"speed bias\" (which I don\'t believe in).
I don\'t just do it off the top two. But the point is if the vast majority of speed horses ran better relative to their tops than the vast majority of closers, you might read something into that.
As a general rule speed horses have less ground loss, especially at GP with the short stretch. On days with big fields that\'s a real issue.
makes sense but I know the top 2 will play a key role in setting the figs for that race in particular because they were so fast going in and they won by alot.
It wouldn\'t be February without Jimbo\'s annual \"Risen Star Sucks! Toss!!\" post....
Here was last year\'s version
https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,77382,77408#msg-77408
And for those with short memories, last year\'s version contained Palace Malice, Oxbow, Golden Soul, Normandy Invasion, and Code West.
Just messin\' with ya Jimbo, hope no offense taken!
Tread,
And, as i recall, none of those horses made the triple in the Derby......
Of course they achieved more later on.
And no offense taken.
For the record, Golden Soul finished 2nd and NI 4th, that\'s half the super. And 2 of the others from that race won the Preakness and Belmont. And the Code West also became a graded stakes winner.
Belmont,
Kudos to you in that it sounds like you used East Hall. I hope you cashed big in the race.
That said, the methodology you are using in your post, that being Thorograph figs are the end all in analyzing a race, is just not a good one. (sorry to you and the host).
I use the product and have posted here a long time. But, looking at a figure in isolation, without the context of how it was earned, factoring bias, pace, trip, etc.etc is a path to disaster. i am not sure what the path to success is, but I know it ain\'t that.
Despite the fact that TGJB had East Hall faster than Top Billing in his last race, how many takers would there have been on a match up bet of East Hall vs Top Billing? I guess before the race you would have taken that bet, since he was \"faster\"? Not saying he wasn\'t a great use at the odds offered, that is a different proposition completely. (don\'t want to get into a pissing match, but TGJB\'s figures for Top Billing are certainly very debatable, especially relative to some other 3 year old TG figures - but that is not for today)
And as to your last sentence, I wish things were that simple..........
Jim
Tread,
If I had the time or the inclination, I would dig up your posts about the second coming of Secretariat, Verrazano. Best of his crop, a \"great\" horse, etc.etc.
yes, if never looked in the eye, he was decent.
Tough game, worse odds than baseball where 3 out of 10 is hall of fame.
We can all look bad with opinions.
How is your memory of that Derby last year? one of us posted in March that Orb was going to win......
Jim
All I know is if East Hall had gotten third I would have made an awful lot of money. Tossed TB at the price, wasn\'t happy when he made it to the rail by the first turn.
Well, Unless I\'m mistake Verrazano did run the fastest 3yr old fig of any male last year in a G1 race (or any other race, for that matter), so while you can certain question his brittleness and consistency, it\'s tough to question his ability. And I did not pick him to win the Derby, I just did not land on Orb until a couple days before the race, unlike you.
That said, yes there are many more wrong opinions than right ones in this game, I\'m the first to admit it. I just found extreme irony in how wrong your opinion on the Risen Star was last year and yet you came back with pretty much exactly the same one this year, and that struck me as funny. No harm intended, it was just entertaining.
Looking forward to hearing your opinions, and others, again this year.
Last race on the card was classic case . . .
So, fwiw, the bias guys had GP off the charts for speed on Sat calling the surface \"intensely inside speed favoring\".Their formula takes lots of things into account and they adjust for much the best wires where the winner lays over going in(usually short priced chalk)
One note, you will rarely see two horses routing, at that level,going fairly quickly, head to head the entire race and finish that way.In a scenario like that, I would tend to discount somewhat that the 2 top ones were fastest going in.You can count on one hand the number of races you will see with those dynamics where the leaders survive much less run 1,2.
Top Billing kinda evened out late, with a great set up in front of him, carrying a few less pounds than the top two embattled leaders, maybe needed one.
Don\'t get the \"no speed bias\"...looked like, played like, acted like giant inside speed bias.
Miff,
leaving the bias/non bias argument aside for a minute
what\'s your best guess for Top Billing ran on Sat?
saved ground, was getting weight, finished well back of top 2.
I was assuming a pair but I have seen others speculate much faster.
You are our resident expert on these things as I know you have a great database/algorithm but totally understand if you would rather not share.
thanks
Miff, you sound exactly like everyone last year who complained about the Risen Star. I kept hearing over and over again this dumbed down argument that the race could not possibly have been good because of the 7-horse blanket finish.
This is quite simply, ridiculous, as the future results of the Risen Star horses showed.
I\'m more than open to the idea that MANY times when there is a blanket finish or a two horse speed duel all the way around the track that it could mean the quality of the race was in question. But for people to just apply that judgement like a blanket every time it happens in a knee-jerk reaction to say they all suck without looking deeper at the data and the results is simply lazy, I\'m not sure what other word to use.
I\'m also not trying argue that there was zero bias at all last Sat, but I think it was far less pronounced than people are making it out to be. The best 2 horses on paper won the race, the two absolute trailers early in the race finished 3rd and 4th. Jim mentioned Normandy Invasion. There is just not the right kind of data to suggest the track was trumped up as big as everyone is making it out to be or that it was carrying horses that should not have been winning races to victory.
Jim
How many Derby winners have run a zero in February? I can tell you there have been some over hyped fast figure run by three year olds in February that finished far up the track on the first Saturday in May. If your focused on futures then March isn\'t the worst time of year to put down a wager. The Gotham, Rebel or the Spiral Stake might have some to prove to us. Who knows, you might fall in love with a Extrasexyhippzter before the weekend is over.
Thread,
You have ZERO contra to the inside speed track bias,on the other hand all dirt winners wired along the fence except a 1-5 shot that stalked toward the inside and overwhealmed his competition.People with good credentials that specialize in scoping out biases believe the track was inside speed biased,as I do, draw your own conclusions.
The Risen Star last year is irrelevant as to who did what out of the race,as well may be the case with this years FOY. Many top 3 yr olds out of TC preps preps go on to something \"fast\" eventually, take a look historically.
Most, not all, blanket finishes, is normally NOT a race to write home about, fig wise.Does not mean there isnt a runner out of there that goes on to do something \"fast\" soon thereafter.
Speaking of the Risen Star this year, Beyer thinks it was ok giving it a 97(like TG 2) I did not like the race but the first two did separate by 5+lenghts from the rest.
Mike
Hi Jim,
Not surprising that Beyer(and assume JB)zeroed in on a very glib FOY dirt surface. Beyer gave the first 2 finishers in FOY a figure equal TG 1.5 (with the loser slightly better on TG being outside of the winner on both turns)
Top Billing ran a top, TG 3.5 range assuming that JB and Beyer saw the variant the same.
Constitution ran a big race, TG 2 range, in that 6th race allowance.Tonalist, forced out of his preferred running style,had to chase early and ran better than the figure he will get,very negative dynamics for him.
Have not seen the Rags figs yet.Day seemed pretty straight forward in the dirt routes(time in between dirt races sometimes a problem) except the Devon Dale which came up a bit on the slow side raw,acccordingly fig wise,like TG 6.Thought the DD winner maybe special going in, not so sure now.
Good Luck,
Mike
incredibly helpful buddy, really appreciate that
I do think that would put Top Billing in between a rock and a hard place in terms of the Derby
He will either need to make a decent jump figure wise to a new top in his next just to get into the Derby (need to run a 1 or 2 to win one of the final preps, especially with his closing style) or if he runs another 3 or 4 TG and gets up for 3rd or 4th in the next and qualifies for the Derby, he would then need to run a new top to win.
I just don\'t see it.
He\'s a super nice horse and I sure as heck wish I owned him but I don\'t see it for the Derby for this one
thanks alot again, very helpful info
Would give all one run type closers an extra half mulligan for the way the track certainly seemed to play.
Hey buddy!!!
how are you?
two quick points:
1) Extrasexyhipster looks awesome on the TGs you will see when the Gotham gets put up this weekend. He\'s much faster than Top Billing or almost all of the others who people like at this point. He\'s another one we made an iquiry on to buy only to get laughed at. No idea if he gets the distance but he\'s a super talented horse.
2) I\'m not looking for horses to have run a zero already but running a huge fig at this point and having a 3.5 top with only one race left to go before the Derby are two different things (assuming Miff is right on Top Billing\'s FOY which he usually is).
Without going back to look at the Archives, in the post-steroid era, I think you need to run in the 0 to 2 range to win the Derby and since we know that very few horses run a new top in the Derby (I think the average is 2 or less out of the 20), then we really need to focus on horses that have run a 0-2 by their final prep. In order for Top Billing and a bunch of the others to do that, that requires them to make a big jump in their final prep and we also know from the archives that horses that make a big jump in their final prep almost always (not always but almost for you Ice Box fans out there) bounce in the Derby.
With last year as an exmaple, Orb was already really fast after his FOY win (a 2 if memory serves). Top Billing is what, 5 lenghts slowwr than Orb this time last year. That\'s alot of ground to make up with only 1 prep to go!
will be very fun to watch this unfold as always
I would have to go back and look at the charts from last year\'s FOY day but I seem to remember that track being very \"speed favoring\" as well but Orb was able to run down Violence.
I think Orb was the only winner from off the pace that day but I could be wrong.
I know Animal Kingdom was the only one from off the pace when he won the Sprial.
At the risk of restating something I\'ve said a bunch of times already, great horses can overcome those biases.
Top Billing and the others could prove to be great eventually but if they were as great as everyone wanted them to be right now (i.e 2-1 fav with that post) then he would have been able to overcome it.
Big Brown and Barbaro and Animal Kingdom and Orb all did.
BTW, I will add one to the list. I Want Revenge. He would have galloped against those tin cans that year in the Derby if the Vet would have let him run (not saying he should have by any stretch) but remember the stumle he overcame in the Wood that year? that\'s the kind of race I am looking for int he upcoming 6 weeks to pick my Derby winner. I haven\'t seen anything close to that yet
Jim,
I know you are a good guy, so you aren\'t going to mind me making a comment about your post to further illustrate the point I was making the other day about just looking at figures without context.
Let\'s just say for a second that Miff is correct and Top Billing got a 3. so you are looking ahead, sort of trying to manufacture a pattern that will make him run big on Derby day and throwing him out because if he runs fast enough next race, he will be sitting on bounce going into the derby. And if just \"pairs\", he is too slow.
Let\'s also say that the majority opinion about the Gulf track on Saturday is true and it was one of the most highly speed favoring tracks of that meet. So, Top billing pairs up the 3, against the grain of the track. supposed he ran the exact same race, exerting the exact same effort, but did it on a day where speed was not carrying. He would have run a better figure, let\'s say maybe a 1. Now, with a 0 or 1 in his last prep, you would have him potentially as a top contender heading into the derby. Sorry, but that is dogmatic to me and makes no sense. That feels like \"kool aid\".
You have to look at how a figure is earned and the whole pattern manufacturing thing that got some steam a few years back with Street Sense and his last prep before the Derby is a bit like voodoo, at least to me.
If Top billing did pair up, against the grain, he gets a small bump up from my initial view on him. If he runs better next time out, on a fair surface, I won\'t be fearing a bounce heading into the Derby. I will make a bigger correction in my thinking about how much the bias hurt him on Saturday. Frankly, I strongly believe the track was heavily slanted towards speed, but I struggle offsetting that with what i believe was a perfect trip that Rosario gave the horse, sitting of an intense duel, and the horse lacked punch late. Tough to reconcile the two, which is why I need to see his next race before I move him off the \"medium list\" onto either the \"short list\" or the \"dead list\". (with all the Risen Star runners - yes, Tread, perhaps I will be wrong again about that race, but I will let all those horses beat me for sure next time out)
Jim
Hey Jimbo,
Shug has already mentioned the Wood as a possibility depending on how the Gulf strip is playing and the NY weather. He has to get the points to get in.
I agree with your pattern assessment 100 % on Top Billing although not as concerned with him not closing on the top 2 in the FOY as you are. He looks like a healthy progressing 3 yr old who we know can get the Derby distance. If he did earn a TG 3 or 3.5 that\'s a healthy move under adverse conditions per his running style. A move to to 2 or 1.5 in his last prep would potentially have him sitting in a good spot on May 3rd. If that means anything in weaving through 19 other horses from last?
Good luck,
Frank D.
Jimbo- when did they pass the rule you had to make lists before the draw?
Well TGJB
Since u are charging 25 bucks multiple times, months in advance of the race, I would have assumed u were aware of the whole derby futures concept.....
I don\'t want to clutter your board, so perhaps I will send u a private message explaining how they work........
Jim
all totally totally reasonable points
that said, I think if he was good enough to win the derby, he would have been good enough to overcome whatever bias there was (like Normandy Invasion did and ORb did and, etc, etc).
He only has 1 race left to improve let\'s not forget
what I really don\'t understand about all of the bias stuff is that if there was such a bias, why was Normandy Invasion able close into it?
and if the answer to that is, well, he is just that much better of a horse than the others, then my question is why do we think Top Billing is so great if he couldn\'t overcome it?
Jim
Normandy invasion was running against allowance nw1 horses who were 10+ lengths slower than him. Based on how every other horse that was part of last years derby pace ran, no surprise how well he ran. (The injury was a question)
Top billing was running against peers with figures just as good as his. Considering he was facing a top field, expecting him to overcome the bias the way Normandy did is a very high hurdle.
I am not defending a horse I don\'t love. Strange game......
Jim
Jim,
I don\'t think anyone especially FD is saying Top Billing is anything super special. We\'re all grabbing at straws at this point!
IMHO he is a nicely bred horse for a classic distance, has a trainer that will bring him along as he is ready and is merely progressing nicely.
Heck this could easily be a Mine that Bird, Super Saver or Giacomo year. although Affirmed did win the last Triple Crown in a Chinese Year of the Horse!
Good luck,
Frank.
Jimbo and Frand D.
Both totally valid points and I appreciate you guys making them
I do love how we now have Jimbo on the run defending his bullish views on a horse he doesn\'t even like that much, I am really proud of that move :)
Andrew Beyer: Fountain of Youth result confirms bias
Wildcat Red (right) and General a Rod hung tough in the Fountain of Youth, but their performances were likely aided by a strong Gulfstream Park speed bias.
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Some of the nation's promising 3-year-olds raced at Gulfstream Park Saturday and put on an exciting show. Wildcat Red won a dramatic head-and-head stretch duel to beat General a Rod in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Constitution, who may be trainer Todd Pletcher's best 3-year-old, ran away from a strong field in an allowance race. They all established their credentials as Kentucky Derby contenders. Or did they?
Sometimes a high-profile race or racing card illustrates principles of the game so perfectly that they become a textbook lesson in handicapping. The events at Gulfstream make a case study into track biases – detecting their existence and judging their effect on races.
From the 1970s into the 1990s, powerful biases regularly dictated the results at certain tracks: Front-runners on the rail dominated at Pimlico and Keeneland; horses swooping wide on the turn won at Belmont. But the game has changed in the last decade or two. Track superintendents are more aware of biases and learned how to eradicate them. Even so, horseplayers think they see biases everywhere. Some believe that the Gulfstream Park strip has been speed-favoring for most of the season. I would contend that the success of speed horses is not necessarily due to a bias. While Gulfstream has an abundance of horses who fill fields for grass races, its dirt races have been underpopulated. Last Thursday its five dirt races drew fields of 7, 6, 7, 7, and 5. The chances of a front-runner are enhanced in a small field – there are fewer rivals to put pressure on him – and on Thursday three of these races were won by front-runners. They paid $5, $7.60, and $3.20, all logical results that had little to do with the racing surface.
[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]
Biases are revealed by results that appear illogical: A faint-hearted runner goes to the front and pulls away from the field. Horses battle for the lead at a suicidal pace, yet they keep on going strong instead of dying in the stretch.
Gulfstream carded six races on dirt Saturday, and five of them were won by the front-runner. The exception hardly counts: Normandy Invasion, a 1-5 favorite against an overmatched field, would have won under any circumstances, and he had no difficulty rallying past his rivals.
In the other races before the Fountain of Youth:
* Social Inclusion, a first-time starter who had worked blazingly fast and earned rave reviews from clockers, blasted from the gate and dominated a maiden race.
* Global Strike, a Pletcher-trained maiden, was a justified 3-5 favorite and led all the way.
* Onlyforyou, Pletcher's undefeated 3-year-old filly, led all the way to win the Davona Dale Stakes as the even-money favorite.
* Constitution, who had made his debut last month with a display of great speed, found himself in an allowance devoid of front-runners. He popped from the gate and went to the lead, as his main rival, Tonalist, chased in vain.
Four front-running winners, four logical results. If any horseplayer had told me there was a "speed bias," I would have laughed. And then came the Fountain of Youth.
Wildcat Red had scored four previous victories, all in sprints. He's the son of a sprinter, and there was ample reason to doubt that he would be effective in 1 1/16-mile stakes. General a Rod is a speedster, too (albeit one with a more robust pedigree) and he was also trying to go two turns for the first time. Accordingly, the crowd made a solid favorite of Top Billing, a proven distance runner and a strong finisher.
When the gate opened, the riders on Wildcat Red and General a Rod both had the same idea: Use the horse's speed and go to the lead. They were head and head from the start. On the backstretch Luis Saez was putting Wildcat Red under an all-out drive and setting a breathtaking pace: three-quarters in 1:10.13. General a Rod stayed glued to him. After the two colts turned into the stretch, they figured to collapse. They didn't.
They battled to the wire, with Wildcat Red winning the photo. Top Billing, who had advanced to third on the turn, barely gained on them in the stretch. Two horses with uncertain stamina engage in the most grueling of duels and neither one of them weakens? In my opinion, this would not have happened on a normal racing surface. This outcome had to be the result of a strong speed-favoring bias, and its existence prompts a reevaluation of everything that happened on the dirt at Gulfstream Saturday.
Even though the top two finishers earned Beyer Speed Figures of 101, the best by any 3-year-olds in the nation, I would view their performances as a bias-produced aberration and would be prepared to bet against them when they run again. The track may have been an excuse for Top Billing, but – bias or no bias – he should have mustered more of a rally than he did. His was a disappointing effort.
When Constitution won his allowance race, he looked as if he might be establishing himself as the star of his generation. But with the evidence he raced over a strongly speed-favoring surface, his effort appears less impressive. He still has to prove himself under fairer conditions. However, the horses behind Constitution deserve an upgrade. Tonalist, bounced around as he left the gate, raced four wide around the first turn. With Constitution loose on the lead in front of him, Joe Bravo had to alter the colt's preferred stretch-running style and try to chase the leader. His second-place finish was commendable under the circumstances. So, too, was the performance of Mexikoma, who broke from the disadvantageous outside post, raced wide around both turns and rallied from last place to finish third. The 3-year-olds with the brightest futures may not be the ones who were in the winner's circle Saturday.
Well, given that this whole discussion is about picking a Derby winner, I feel compelled to highlight that his track record on this front isn\'t excactly stellar!!!!
(all in good fun of course)
Beyer must read this board,lotta verbatim stuff from posts here!!
Jim, I\'m right there with ya. When Beyer came out against your opinion, it\'s confirmation you were right all along :)
Noticeably absent from his account is the fact that the 2 trailers in the race closed all the way to be 3rd and 4th. My guess is that TB looked much better (comparatively) than the top 2 did on his figures and supporting the bias narrative helps him think his figures going into the race were more right.
What his Royal Heinous Andrew and few others missed were the Indian file results already determined as they entered the stretch. There were only a handful of positions that changed on the main track all day in the lane.
Yes number powered logical favorite speed horses were winning but virtually nothing changed behind them.
I\'m quite certain Miff and some of his pace cronies realized it before the FOY; heck even I did but should have hit the all button in the late pick 4!!! I used 4 none of which were the 12 or 13.
Lots of luck if you bet them back on Florida Derby day.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Jim
Any player can look back in retrospect and say \"it wasnt a bias because of x\" but when you are betting the races, during the day, and you\'re watching what is happening, you are not going to just randomly bet horses you like regardless of their running style...unless you did?
Is Onlyforyou really 14 lengths better than Penwith and StopChgMaria? She beat them by 14, that\'s a lot of lengths.
Plastic
Not sure I get your point. Is your point that u have to adjust your views when u notice a track bias. Certain,y agree. Sometimes hard to pick up on without reviewing the charts and therefore I find the bias information more often being helpful retrospectively to bet on or against horses next time out.
As for only for you, I think u picked a bad horse to illustrate your point. She ran very mediocre by the numbers. It just so happened the other two were horrific on Saturday. Hence the 14 length gap.
Jim