Unfortunately, my view on the Derby is already pretty clouded by a) horses I have tried to buy, and b) my futures plays from the Wynn so I am afraid everyone needs to already take all of this with even more of a grain of salt than they might already.
that said, let\'s try to get this Derby party started!
I don\'t want to go into detail on the horses from this weekend that I have made offers on but there are a few of them and the first thing I would say is that this is the toughest market I have seen to buy horses privately in the 8 or so years I have been seriously pursuing this. We have made some serious serious offers for horses or pieces of horses and people are laughing in our faces. Not sure if it\'s a reflection of the better economy, better market for breeding or the smaller foal crop making people more bullish about the good horses they do have but anyway you cut it, this is a very very bullish private market and so consequently, I haven\'t bought a horse since Testa Rossi for the Breeders Cup despite making maybe 50 offers on different horses since then.
As is usually the case, it\'s not always people making the right decisions either as one of the horses we had made a serious offer on is already off the Derby Trail (although we have no way of knowing if he would have passed vetting).
Anyway, all of this said, the horse I really like for this weekend is General ARod.
yes, he\'s one of my futures plays but as I believe the TGs will show when they get put up, he\'s the fastest horse in the race, he\'s well rested with perfect timinng into this race and he\'s working extremely well from everything I understand. The horse he beat last out came back to win in an impressive performance and he drew perfectly for this race. He won\'t be the favorite in the race because of all of the steam on the Pletcher and Shug horses and the fact that he hasn\'t done it going the two turns and so I do think the value will be there. I have no issue at all with him and the two turns both because of the way he runs and moves and the Dynaformer bottom side. I don\'t know about the 1 1/4 but I feel very good about his prospects this weekend at what should be a decent price.
In terms of further down the road, I really like Commissioner (another one of my Wynn future plays from back in early Jan). He would need to jump way forward to win this on the sheets and he\'s not playable as the expected favorite on Sat but I think down the road, he could be the one at Churchill. He showed a very good burst of speed in the last race to close a several length gap in a matter of strides on a speed favoring track and that was very impressive to me. He\'s obviously bred to the moon and having won two 1 1/8 races already, needless to say, he can get the distance. He may wind up being a Belmont horse like his Daddy but I think he showed enough turn of foot in that last race to convince me that he can do it at Churchill. I don\'t expect him to win on Saturday but I think he will move forward and set himself up well for the next two races
I don\'t have a strong opinion at FG. The FG hasn\'t produced a horse that has made any real noise in the Derby in a long time. I don\'t know whether its the level of compeition, the track or the climate/climate change but we just haven\'t seen alot of horses that have mattered in the Derby coming from FG so I pay less attention to those preps.
I know Shared Belief and Candy Boy are the steam horses on the west coast but the horse on the west coast I like the most is Bayern (full disclosure my 3rd of 4 Wynn plays from early Jan). I don\'t know what he ran on the TGs last time but I love this way this horse runs and even though he didn\'t beat much, a 15 length win at Santa Anita is impressive reglardless. That\'s the kind of move of of the ordinary that I have come to look look for this time of year.
Speaking of that, as always, I think the key is to look this weekend for horses doing something out of the ordinary to identify them as a real top Derby prospect. Orb closing from last on a speed biased track in last year\'s FOY, Barbaro winning from the far outside in the Fla Derby, Big Brown winning by open lengths against stakes horses in his 3rd lifetime start. Animal Kingdom winning the Spiral Stakes from dead last on a track where no other horse that was worse than second at first call had won all day.
These are all things that can help identify special horses that can win the Derby and seperate those types from merely very good horses who look impressive winning in Derby preps with perfect trips. Tapiture for example had everything go his way last weekend. Doesn\'t mean he\'s not a really nice horse but a perfect trip winner isn\'t what I am looking for to identify a derby winner at this time of the year. Given the 20 horse field and all of the rough stuff that goes on during the race, it\'s rare for anyone to get a perfect trip in the derby so I want someone who has overcome adveristy/done something to show they are truly special before the race.
disclaimer: in no way shape or form did I have all of the horses that did \"something special\" ahead of time above in the derby. This is after the fact analysis which has helped me the last several years that I wished I had thought about the previous decade.
would love everyone\'s thoughts.
If history serves, board should really heat up soon and that\'s always alot of fun.
Good comments as always; I am also looking forward to a race on the undercard at GP Saturday, the 6th Race.....Mexikoma intrigues me and is reportedly training well.
yeah, that is one awesome allowance race.
I believe one horse really stands out on the TGs in there but any of them are liable to jump up at this time of year
this kind of card is what racing is all about for me. like many others, I just can\'t get excited about Big A winter racing and consequently I haven\'t wagered a dime of my own money on the Big A all year but this card Sat is the kind I could lose a fortune on....lol
I am looking forward to two other races on the card as well as I have horses in the first and last races that day. would be nice to run well on a big day like this
looking forward to a fun day.
really wish I could be there but I have a commitments at my children\'s school so won\'t be able to make it down
Great comments.
Horses with their final preps at FG finished 2d and 3d in last year\'s Derby.
Nehro and golden soul have slopped up for second in recent years. I almost went into that in the post but it was already getting too long
Neither came close to challenging the winner. I\'m taking about picking a winner at this point relative to derby futures and neither of those would have ever won the race.
That said, very fair point.
Speaking of your horses, I find that last race almost impossible. I\'m thinking you will improve second out but Catman usually better first out than second out. However, the race you come out of is looking like a KEY race to me. Good luck this weekend!!
B
covelj70 Wrote:
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>
> I don\'t have a strong opinion at FG. The FG
> hasn\'t produced a horse that has made any real
> noise in the Derby in a long time. I don\'t know
> whether its the level of competition, the track or
> the climate/climate change but we just haven\'t
> seen alot of horses that have mattered in the
> Derby coming from FG so I pay less attention to
> those preps.
Jim, a lot of these races have stallion implications, and I think, as prep races go, the Santa Anita Derby and the Florida Derby are just more fashionable than the La Derby. Surprised that CD hasn\'t established a huge bonus for winning the La Derby and the Ky Derby, or have they?
Would think the La Derby would serve as a useful prep because of track configuration. I think that CD, FG and the main track at Aq are the three longest stretches in NA.
> I know Shared Belief and Candy Boy are the steam
> horses on the west coast but the horse on the west
> coast I like the most is Bayern (full disclosure
> my 3rd of 4 Wynn plays from early Jan). I don\'t
> know what he ran on the TGs last time but I love
> this way this horse runs and even though he didn\'t
> beat much, a 15 length win at Santa Anita is
> impressive regardless. That\'s the kind of move
> of of the ordinary that I have come to look look
> for this time of year.
Shared Belief, undefeated as a 2YO, is a gelding with hoof/quarter crack issues who apparently has just gotten back to breezing. Do not know anything about the ownership group, but would like nothing better than to see Hollendorfer NOT rush this guy to the Derby. SB could be the kind of runner who might run against top older horses in the Fall, and stick around for a couple years after that.
Oh, and by the way, its only February.
Good luck with your futures and with your stable, Jim
Hey Jim,
I\'ll nibble a bit on your EARLY Derby string and accept a little TGJB wrath of talking Derby in February.
So is this the year of the Tapit\'s? I really can\'t remember a year when so much of the early buzz is coming from one sire.
I got a bit curious about your horses overcoming adversity theory and went back through the achieves the past 30 plus years of Derby winners. Street Sense & Gato Del Sol both overcame snail like paces in the Blue Grass to run well and not win. Sunny\'s Halo a Canadian Champ at 2 developed a serious ankle issue and was one of the first horses ever put in a swimming pool. He defeated a tough field in the Arkansas Derby and the ankle flared up again as well as developing a nasty skin rash. Real Quiet the closest thing to a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed took 7 tries to break his maiden. Monarchos ran a huge top in the Florida Derby, bounced to get beat in the Wood and survived a big bump at the start of the Derby to win easily.
There are 2 on Saturday that I feel are really up against it. Top Billing drawing outside at a 1 1/16 with the 2 Pletcher\'s & Wildcat Red inside and Tonalist having to turn back to 1 1/16 from a maiden breaking 1 1/8. Let\'s see how they run?
Since we\'re talking future book bets:
Let\'s go back to the greatest score known to mankind and the late Johnny Campo
(yes sire of richiebee\'s former favorite racing secretary) putting the lights out on 2-3 small houses in the early days of the futures bet. Pleasant Colony won the Remsen at 2, was highly regarded and ran a tough beat 2nd in the Fountain of Youth, he was drubbed in the Florida Derby and moved to JC\'s barn less than 60 days before the Derby. The brash Campo spread money all over town starting at 99/1 and came out in the NY Post guaranteeing a victory not only in the Wood Memorial but in the Derby as well. The lights went out permanently in 2-3 houses as their reported score had 6 zero\'s in it.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Hey Jim
I think a forgotten handicapping angle is the Churchill surface. Turf horses tend to take to CD\'s dirt surface very well and even move up when it\'s wet. Plodder or not; it was the reason I was looking at Mosler but looks like he\'s headed for an Allowance on the turf. At this time of year I want to see a horse improving and not the too fast too soon type, aka Shared Belief.
Frank,
That is an awesome story. Love that one. Hadnt heard that. I absolutely love stories like that. Thanks for sharing.
Hey Cov..along the lines of looking for the special...for me its Honor Code\'s maiden race at Sar and the Remsen...rallying up the inside on a wet track from 20 lengths behind and to come back and rerally versus a horse like Cairo Prince while on the inside in the remsen is not something I see alot..the delay does concern me but considering the breeding to get better with age..this one is the only one for me until I see otherwise.
Usaually the 12 hole is death for these two turn races at GP. But Top Billing\'s style seems as suited for it as anyone. If he goes straight to the back as usual, ground loss won\'t be an issue. The challenge will be not getting started too late.
I think a horse who is being lost in the shuffle is one of the Favs Cairo Prince. Closed the last Pool at 12-1 (I think) but his racing resume needs to be respected a little more.
Broke his Maiden going 6 was stretched to Mile shortly thereafter, in a stakes race for that matter, then then Remson at a mile and eighth. In those first two races he was up by 3 at the 5 furlong pole and 5 at the 7 furlong pole. He did the same thing in the Holy Bull.
The jockey apologized profusely the next day for having put away his whip early in the Remson and the horse continues to train well. That is THREE dominating wins in his resume. The #\'s have not been ultra fast but the Holy Bull was assuredly faster. This horse can make a trip and let loose a burst.
Stroll to Victory is in the 8th tomorrow. Was highly thought of last year. Ran second to Bobbys Kitten at Saratoga and then chipped. Doing well, training well and that Saratoga maiden race was a quality heat. Not an easy comeback spot however. Good Luck!!
The Florida Derby is going to be an awesome race if all stay sound; so strong it may make for a good Wood as well; trainers will be scrambling for Derby points.
An Awesome duel around the speed friendly oval and I hope Senor Garoffalo doesn\'t get to big a dose of Derby fever because he has a potential great miler here that will not go 1 1/4. Jose don\'t be a Pletcher!!!!
Shug\'s comments on DRF show he is ecstatic about Top Billing\'s race and I\'m sure sheet wise it\'s a nice forward move. He had no chance to get to the front 2 yesterday.
Jim C. has to like General A Rod\'s race and his future bet; I\'m sure. Commissioner was a complete no show which was surprising to me.
I didn\'t see or hear any Clement comments on Tonalist\'s race but he had no chance as well to get to the lose on the lead lead Constitution. One would think he got what he needed and a wide 2nd turn should at least pair up his 3 from the allowance race. Is he ready for the next step is the question and the Florida Derby may not be the best spot to find out.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Jim C. has to like General A Rod\'s race and his
> future bet; I\'m sure. Commissioner was a complete
> no show which was surprising to me.
I like the fact that Gen A Rod basically ran 3 times as a 2YO and has already
been over the Derby surface. Can he be taught to rate?
> I didn\'t see or hear any Clement comments on
> Tonalist\'s race but he had no chance as well to
> get to the lose on the lead lead Constitution. One
> would think he got what he needed and a wide 2nd
> turn should at least pair up his 3 from the
> allowance race. Is he ready for the next step is
> the question and the Florida Derby may not be the
> best spot to find out.
The pedigree makes this one a fascinating prospect, with HOY Havre de Grace
and Gr 1 turf runner (and I think G1 producer) Riskaverse on the female side.
Somehow do not think Clement would be too upset if this one does not qualify
for Derby on points; this one has great potential on both turf and dirt down
the road.
Cairo Prince has a nice looking sheet so far but looks questionable(female family) on pedigree at ten furlongs.
Remsen was hardly a true test at nine furlongs given the ridiculously slow pace and even though he jogged in the Holy Bull he looked like he was done running at the wire.
I haven\'t been wowed by any of the three year olds.
Two best races IMO out of this crop have been last year.
Shared Belief in the Cash Call on cushion ran like a freak but he hasn\'t worked in 53 days and went bad training on dirt.So he isn\'t even on the radar as far as running in the Derby.I have trouble understanding why he\'s even in Pool 3.
Strong Mandate Hopeful in the slop was awesome but in three subsequent races he hasn\'t come close to repeating the effort.Pedigree is certainly there for the distance but he\'s yet to show he can run fast going long.Maybe we\'ll see it in March or April.Or maybe he just freaked in the slop sprinting.
Two things about Lukas:
1)Some of his better horses had some ugly looking sheets/races prior to getting good.
2)When he gets them good they tend to stay that way for a few.
re CP - Given we know what he ran in his last at this point, for his derby chances would it be better for him to just pair that in Florida Derby, as opposed to an explosion into negative territory, and save that explosion for the big day? Knowing that by just pairing he\'ll probably be more in the position Normandy\'s Invasion was last year (great pattern but a couple of points slower than a few others) assuming a few of the others move forward into negative territory between now and 1st Sat in May.
As well as paired tops do coming into the Derby pattern wise, I think I\'d take that...in the you want them to run huge on derby day, not the race just before (or the race after).
I wonder how aware Kierren is of this (not wanting the big one 1 race too soon)? Given his 14points in derby standings, he really in all likelihood gets in even with a 3rd in Floriday Derby (20 pts for 34 total).
There\'s a decent chance he has enough already. 10 points got you in last year.