Uncaptured - Has not improved save 1 pt since his 2yo year. No rest in a year so hard to see the jump coming today, also tends to bounce off his tops, which last was.
WTC - Throw back iron horse, dam must be worth a mint now as 2nd super fast colt in a row. 1.5pts or so in weight he spots to others though bring him back to no faster than others at their tops, and that\'s only if he runs his, which he doesn\'t have to, and probably needs to. At the odds he\'s play against.
REV - Too slow and TAP\'s tend to run their fig early on and not get faster. Definite play against, hopefully at a shorter than his ML odds.
NECK N\' NECK - Reasonable draw, huge back fig to get back to which last sets him up for, Wilkes king of pointing to the big one. Price more than right.
R7 - He bounces off his tops, no reason to think on not much time he won\'t do the same here, especially at the short price.
ROMANSH - Last was huge but Albertrani has smartly given him 3 months rest. On the weights exactly as fast as WTC and that\'s only if WTC runs his best.
VIR - too slow
LEA - is interesting. 1st Samurai\'s do improve 4pts (which is what he\'s done) from 3 to 5 so licence to run his number again. Mott going well L90, 66% pairs or better, not helped by draw but price is solid if ML holds
BC - going the wrong way plus bore in last, far worse pattern that what got him his big one in this last year. Plus Gorder is awful at Gulf in limited sample.
MBull - runs 1 number per year that, at weights could make him competitive for bottom of tri or super. But since he\'s just run it this month and this is 5th in a month, far too slow otherwise, even with the mad russian going guns a blazes at 44% tops right now.
JC - too slow
Summary - Neck\'nNeck is the clear value in the race at anything close to ML. Romansh also a big shot with good rest. Those two on top with Lea (assuming the 10:1 holds up) and WTC for the 3rd spot if he\'s not crazy over bet. If he\'s closer to evens though, toss him completely.
I am still under my self imposed ban and shall remain so, but I confess I do peek in now and then...had to get a new password to respond to this...
Will Take Charge....Iron Horse for real...his dam is Take Charge Lady...William Schettine gets credit as her breeder because he purchased Take Charge Lady\'s dam, Felicita, when she was in foal with Take Charge Lady. Take Charge Lady, damn of WTC and Take Charge Indy, was the foal Felicta was carrying at the time of her purchase. I want to note that Gallaghers Stud of Ghent NY made the mating that produced Take Charge Lady, but due to the owner\'s illness at the time and certain management decisions by others, Felicita was put into the sales ring in foal to Dehere and bearing the foal that would become Take Charge Lady. Because the mare foaled Take Charge Lady under Schettine\'s ownership, he got credit for the breeding of Take Charge Lady though the mating was by Gallaghers Stud. (And major kudos to Schettine for an astute purchase.) Gallaghers Stud is a small privately owned farm in NY which has always looked to breed for class and not cheap speed. So imagine that bred to Unbridled Song who threw real speed, not cheap speed. This horse is a genuine Champion.
The point of this post is twofold, one to give certain credit where certain credit is due and to emphasize the innate, well thought out class of Will Take Charge.
I would be hard pressed to bet against him, regardless of the odds. If he looks happy and full in the paddock, go for it.
Ciao
Hi JB!
I am disappearing.......
You forgot to mention Kenny McPeek trained Take Charge Lady and D Wayne has Will Take Charge. I am going down to Gulf today and will see both of them. If anyone says go all In I will post....but I doubt it....Phil nailed it in his outstanding analysis. This is not a great spot.to be playing Will Take Charge. Revolutionary is Pletcher and Castellano which means he could certainly win....he also means he will take money. There is some now horse value out there somewhere just not sure where yet. Bill Mott has several in today and could be a force. Groupie Doll is NOT a cinch. Good Luck everyone!!
Lea looks real interesting to me. Those works at Payson should set him up for a top effort here, 2nd off the layoff.
Some pk4 thoughts:
R9 - 4 Dance Craze has some nice sibling number power and both Matz and Prado regularly get long prices home on the GP turf (Matz and Prado both +ROI at GP).
Going to go deep here and use 5 Fancy Ribbons, who also has sibling power on the turf and could improve getting firm ground for the first time, as well as 10 Closer To You, the best looking of the first timers. 9 Ginas Kitten has a buried fig good enough to win and 8 Temper Too goes for Motion who is red hot right now.
R10 - Tough to imagine Maker losing here with 10 Sapphire Blue, seems to be a situation he excels at, and fits on numbers. Also using 11 Almost an Angel, 2 Starship Pegasus, and 9 Love That Kelly (another Prado ride, moving forward, and with good sibling power).
R11 - At the weight and rail 2 Tetradrachm might have enough speed to get the right trip to win, but I just cant bet against Summer Front. Am slightly concerned with Amiras Price, given Mott\'s performance recently and Imagining since Shug is 2.68 ROI last 90. Game time decision on how many others to include with Summer Front.
R12 - To me, Revolutionary is a cinch to move forward off his 4yr old debut after having a bad start and then being flattered by Falling Sky yesterday. Pretty sure he gets down to 0 or -1 territory today, but question is whether it will be enough. If reports on WTC are good, have to include him. Will probably use Romansh, though not as high as him as others because he\'s only done neg territory once and aren\'t really sure if that broke him or not.
I do also like Lea and might also toss in Bourbon Courage depending on paddock appearance. Obv something not right last race and some question marks there, but if they fixed it, he has number power to be competitive.
Looking at somewhere in the $150 range for a 50 cent ticket, pending where I land in the last 2 races. GL to all playing.
Share many of our thoughts/opinion, here. But a bit on the cheap side today after getting hammered Fri/Sat in sunny Florida. More poor wagering than bad handicapping I\'m sorry to say. In any case - a bit on Bourbon Courage - the partnership was divided on whether to enter after that last one. However, he\'s working lights out last 3 weeks, and has proven he can run fast enough to win, making him one of 3 that has done it (Rev and WTC the others).
I go just 2 deep in leg one (race 9) with 6,4. I see Twinspires line has the 6 as a false fav. In leg two I\'m going 4 deep with the obvious ones you point out - 3,10,11. While Ward not great off layoff, the works and weight fit. The 4th horse is the Parro contestant - only because the possibility for a longshot exists. No other rationale.
Leg 3 I\'m taking the 2 Motts and one other -so, 2,6,7 there. For the finale, the previous 3 mentioned above.
50 center will cost me $36.
I\'ve got the Super Bug after blowing an absoute gift yesterday in the Gulf 6th.
I had to be a wise guy and split Mott/Clement the 1,3/ 2,6,8,9 / 1,3 / ALL
it only came back $610.40 with 8/5, 2/1 running first and second, 3,1,8,9 with the 6th in 5th.
So here goes in the Donn and kudo\'s to Phil for a great rundown of the field:
As much as we need a big horse in the game I\'m just not sold on WTC, a late developer for sure and certainly not the first to get good after the TC races.
However off the bench against others with a recent race over the track, spotting weight and not worthy of 7/5 or so on numbers I\'m taking a stand against him.
REV, River Seven and Lea on top for me / WTC used in the under slots with top 3 and man\'s best friend in a super race, the ALL button.
3,5,8 / 2 / 3,5,8 / ALL
3,5,8 / 3,5,8 / 2 / ALL
3,5,8 / 3,5,8 / ALL / 2
On all 3 tickets we will flip flop the 3,5,8 & ALL in the 2nd & 3rd, 2nd & 4th & 3rd & 4th spots for lesser amounts.
Good luck and a wave good bye to Groupie Doll today,
Frank D.
$.50 pick four, $54. (9x3x2x2)
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13
with
3, 10, 11
with
6, 8
with
5, 8. (preference to River Seven for verticals)
Revolutionary\'s Beyer Fig was originally 103. Downgraded to 93. Since yesterday, upgraded back to 103. Good luck.
Going cheap on the GP Pk4
4,5,6,9 (I like Solis on this bomb #5 by my favorite grass sire Perfect Soul)
2,10
2,5,6
3,8
$24 on a fifty cent play
A few more thoughts on Revolutionary. Just on the face of it, looking at his sheet, he was a solid 2yo who got down to a fast fig, then did not progress at all in the spring of his 3yo year. Then off for 7 months. First out as 4yo is a pair...again on the face of it you\'d think he could certainly move forward.
But three reasons to think not: 1-Pletcher\'s tend to come out running, his sire profile show\'s (in granted very limited sample size) War Pass\'s don\'t develop at 4, they back up a point. And on the dam side, the dam and 3 of her 6 progeny also went backwards as they got older.
And then of course there is the expected price. Does he have a 1 chance in 6 of BOTH running a neg number AND having that be good enough. I\'d say more like 1 in 10.
Turf very firm, might be an opportunity to bounce Amira\'s Prince.
Boisterous the obvious play here at that price. Tetradachm drifing to stupid levels has value too.
All the turf races being won on the front end. Didn\'t think grass had that strong a bias, but I will play it. Box 6/2
I fade European breds on very firm courses. Hopefully it don\'t bite me here.
LOL. wow!
Or not
I\'m playing Romansh. Good luck guys.
Fair points Phil, but like you said, with the limited sample space I\'m willing to still keep an eye on him. Someone was saying they sealed the track before/after the 10th and it may have really favored front-enders during the Donn, which makes WTCs effort very impressive. I think Revo should switch to FG or wait for CD for a fairer shot.
Tread
Sour grapes. Revolutionary was awful. Period.
Track played fair all day, favoring closers, if anything. Yesterday the track played to speed, not today.
Winner ran huge. As did runner up. Runner up showed gate speed, which is a sign he is really developing. I don\'t think it affected the outcome, but a poor move by Saez sitting a beautiful pocket trip, to take off the rail, and create a 4 wide run. When he left the spot, the 7 drafted in beautifully, albeit with no horse in the stretch. Could have been a helluva stretch run if Saez stayed the course.
Where these last two races for Lea came from, I have no idea. But that was a real fast race.
Lea got a 114 Beyer, way into neg territory on TG. Tough to evaluate race after track maintenance sealed it before the Donn then harrowed it producing very glib surface.
WTC, who I never liked, very legit but still seems to be one who\'s comfort zone is outside of horses,launching wide.Rosario perfect rider for WTC.
WTC vanned in. 20 hour trip and adjusted to 40 degree temperature and 40% humidity increase. Iron Horse will run anywhere on anything under nearly any conditions.
No matter they did or didn\'t do to the track, hard to imagine any scenario where the top two didn\'t run HUGE.
There were lots of horses with established form in the race. And the top two spread eagled the field, with a huge gap to the rest.
Unless everybody else went back incredibly badly, which is unlikely, the top two ran huge numbers, irrespective of harrowed, scraped, sealed, etc.etc. It is just a matter of how huge. And I am not sure it matters, whether it was 114 or 110 beyer or negative 3 or negative 5.
WTC has proven he doesn\'t need to be on a specific track to run big. Wondering about Lea, although he doesn\'t really have the profile of a \"Gulfstream wonder\".
Jim
Hey Jim:
To hear you talk about older horses at this time of year is alarming.
Hope it doesn\'t mean you\'re off the Derby trail.
JB hasn\'t chimed in yet with his annual \"Jeez,relax, its still 90 days out.\"
Take any future positions? Have any Derby thoughts?
Jim,
Quite a few of the contenders,going in,X\'d so its not that plain to me.A 23.4 split after a quickish 6f,unheard of, surface cement like,me thinks.
WTC was never on the rail itself so that may be why the 7 rushed up along side him on the fence.Saez may not have wanted to risk getting trapped down inside.
WTC hard trier but have to see him make early position from an outside post to think he\'s becoming more tactical.
Agree it\'s negative TG -3 or -4ish and an excellent performance by both.
Mike
I don\'t think Lukas really expected him to win yesterday.Hopeful but not confident from listening to his interviews this week.Seems like his next two the Santa Anita and Oaklawn Handicaps are what Lukas would really be after with WTC.
Lukas was probably thrilled with the result and even happier to get back to the shitty Arkansas weather and Strong Mandate.
WTC was off a layoff,giving six pounds to the winner and Gulfstream with it\'s short stretch is probably the worst track for him.Still,Lea had to run a big race to beat him.
WTC is so big he probably needs a race or two to get in top shape.
Really good horse but he\'s not a great athlete.
In traffic and on the turns are not where he does his best running.
He was dressed in blue jeans and a white button down. Not exactly his $3K 3-piece suit. The horse vanned in late and probably aired out his lungs and got a good heavy sweat out of the effort. Heading back to Oaklawn today....
Richie,
Hope things are well with you. You are right, we only have a few weeks left to start a heated thread with lots of \"strong opinions\" about Derby horses where TGJB does his \"its only February, calm down\" comment.
I did peruse the pool this weekend for \"value\" in the Derby futures, as the wounds are just now healing from the Quality Road / I Want Revenge position I had a few years back.
I don\'t have a strong opinion as the horse I was most interested in, Midnight Hawk, laid an egg this weekend. I thought he would dust that field, if he was a solid horse, and he ran awful. BTW, Baffert\'s gets an \"F\" for post-race comments after poor performances this weekend. Game on Dude flops and he says he only has one way to run and when they go that fast early, it is dangerous. Since when can\'t that horse sit 2nd off a quick pace and take the lead on the turn? And then he says Midnight Hawk was a \"little rank early\". How about he was shitty all the way through the race. I think that was a more accurate description. I do think Game on Dude may be done as that race was too bad to be true, but Mike Smith was horrific and should be sobriety tested after that ride. I wondered at first if perhaps the horse was rank and he couldn\'t hold him back, but then I watched the replay in slow motion. Blue Skies outbreaks him, but Dude gets into the second slot rather easily but Smith pushes on him to go after the leader? WTF? No clock in his head? Just a brutally bad ride and I guess he got a pass from commentators for being a HOFer, but that looked like an apprentice at Charlestown.
Anyway, back to futures. Haven\'t seen anybody with anything remotely close to the run that Shared Belief has, but who knows with the injury, delayed start, dirt, etc.etc.
Not as big a fan as Honor Code as others. Thought he was over-rated before the slow start this year, and now that he is off schedule, he can\'t be my derby horse. (he was gifted the Remsen with a bad ride by Saez. Yes, getting grumpy, complaining about bad rides, but watch the Remsen, I would have given 10-1 that Cairo Prince would be closer to the glacial pace than Honor Code. then Saez hand rode in the stretch, thinking the race was over).
Cairo Prince was nice at gulf, but seems shaky at 1 1/4 to me.
The Sadler horse, Candy Boy, that I didn\'t like this weekend was sort of impressive, not so much that he won off a beautiful trip, but the way he seemed to level off and stride out late, indicating that he will relish longer distances. One to keep an eye on.
Good luck,
Jim
The interesting thing (at least to me) is that, because of ground loss and a little bit of weight, Candy Boy should get only the 3rd best TG figure in the race, behind the two Bafferts.
I think everyone was awed by the gallop out. It\'s not too often you see a half-mile work immediately following a mile and 1/16 stakes race.
Bit,
While u may be right, it will be a phony wide figure, at least as far as midnight hawk goes. Never looked good. Showed no kick at all and shut down 20 yards past the wire. Put an x through him. A non contender for the classics IMO.
As for Chitu. Not as sure. I thought he ran as well as the winner, for sure, maybe a tad better, all things considered.
However, coming from somebody who pays more attention to my mother in law\'s nagging than to gallop outs, that was one helluva gallop out by the winner.
Jim
Read an article by Stevens today that said he was thinking that Candy Boy would bypass SanFelipe and therefore he intentionally got into him after the wire for another 1/8th (or even a bit more he said). So it was definitely planned.
Tangentially (or not even), notice how EVERY big winner\'s trainer has basically said they\'re only doing two preps. Where ever could they have got that idea...
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bit,
>
> While u may be right, it will be a phony wide
> figure, at least as far as midnight hawk goes.
> Never looked good. Showed no kick at all and shut
> down 20 yards past the wire. Put an x through
> him. A non contender for the classics IMO.
>
> As for Chitu. Not as sure. I thought he ran as
> well as the winner, for sure, maybe a tad better,
> all things considered.
Jim, was Chitu being rated, or was he just beaten out of the gate by the Biancone colt? Think he got a lot out of the race, and he is borderline Derby material. That would be the 9 furlong SA Derby, not the 10 furlong \"main event\".
> However, coming from somebody who pays more
> attention to my mother in law\'s nagging than to
> gallop outs, that was one helluva gallop out by
> the winner.
My adorable 86 year old mother-in-law has been with us for three years. I have forgotten most of the Russian I learned from my grandparents as a child, but that doesn\'t stop her from having long conversations with me in her native language. Every now and then I turn the tables on her. Sunday night, my wife and mother in law were enjoying some tea. I walked up to my mother in law and said \"Mom, can you believe Trevor Denman called us a winner at the wire and he was freaking wrong?\"
Richie, it\'s just too bad this is the only place your column runs.
The gal in the Horseplayer ad is an analyst on HRTV. One thing I heard they chose not to use was her ridiculing Christian for his Belmont pick, which then won.
richiebee Wrote:
> My adorable 86 year old mother-in-law has been
> with us for three years. I have forgotten most of
> the Russian I learned from my grandparents as a
> child, but that doesn\'t stop her from having long
> conversations with me in her native language.
> Every now and then I turn the tables on her.
> Sunday night, my wife and mother in law were
> enjoying some tea. I walked up to my mother in law
> and said \"Mom, can you believe Trevor Denman
> called us a winner at the wire and he was freaking
> wrong?\"
Did she reply, \"Pizdyetz\" ?