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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: billk5300s on January 12, 2014, 08:49:47 AM

Title: GP Race 3
Post by: billk5300s on January 12, 2014, 08:49:47 AM
I\'m somewhat puzzled regarding race 3 at Gulfstream.  Move Over is very fast but has never gone a mile and is not bred for routes.  Run In Aruba drew inside and shows marked improvement on dirt.  Trainer does well moving synth to dirt.  I doubt that Move Over will get things his own way and the trainer is only average going sprint to route.  I don\'t see the value in playing Move Over and think this may be a good spot to take a shot and possibly toss Move Over.  Am I missing anything obvious other than his fast sprint numbers which may or may not hold true for a route?
Title: Re: GP Race 3
Post by: billk5300s on January 12, 2014, 11:46:09 AM
Move Over circled the field so this shows why I shouldn\'t quit my day job!!!
Title: Re: GP Race 3
Post by: dodie on January 12, 2014, 06:10:13 PM
Billk
  I understand your frustration.  Many times, I will read the t-graph analysis, and they will just focus in on a horse\'s number, no matter what surface or condition and no matter what today\'s racing condition is, IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT.  I think the opposite holds.  If a horse has a number, and is a short price, maybe it\'s right to just pass the race, no matter how incongruous to the conditions the number may be.  My rule:  If I\'m going to have faith in t-graph, have faith in the number.