This is really the one time of year where we can be a bit more open and candid in terms of discussing of TG data as they pertain in a ROTW since the data are out there and gratis for people who sign up. Now of course that doesn\'t mean we\'re laying everything out, we\'re not but maybe we can engage in a bit more of a back and forth. I\'ll start.
Consider the 6 furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes, race 9 at GP on Saturday. First, the givens--5 pounds disparity in weight carried is worth 1 point on the Thoro-Graph scale. One path wide on the turn is equivalent to one length and one length at 6 furlongs is worth a bit more than 0-3/4s of a point.
Star Harbour at 5-2 is favored based not only on his victory in the restricted Sunshine State over this surface 20 days, his first start in Florida, but more so for his huge effort winning a $35K claimer at Saratoga in late August out of which he was claimed. He won by 12 but as convincing as the victory was, it exerted a reaction. He bounced 6 points five weeks later finishing third in the Duck Dance, an overnight stakes at Belmont. He shipped down to Florida and jumped up 2 points winning the Sunshine, his third best effort ever. Now back 20 days later the question is what will he do this time? Anything close to the August effort is probably good enough.
But note Star Harbour after a good, solid 4yo campaign, capped by a new top (now second best, and only equaled by Apriority, twice) went bad in early 2013, so much so that Mott and owners put him in for a claim. This cycle is tighter but it took Star Harbour eight months to run anything close (and it turned out better) to the prior top. Obviously he doesn\'t have to run his best to win but he probably has to run better than he did earlier this month.
He\'s second high weight at 120 and according to the Race Shape he could very possibly be hung out 3 wide on the turn since Fort Loudon and Trinni Heart in posts 1 and 2, are both speedy enough to keep pace presuming good starts by all.
Fort Loudon is speedy, inside and makes his third start off the layoff. His best, only a couple of points off Star Harbour\'s epic, coupled with an inside post, and presumed trip saving ground makes him a viable contender. The problem with him is that his best came in July 2012, almost 18 months ago, and his best since then, 2 points worse, came over 12 months ago. But he finally got a rest after almost 2 years of racing. This is third start in 20 days, not a strong nor weak trainer category, and he has to improve to have any shot plus from the rail he has to get out of the gate quickly. Not impossible but hard to get excited about.
Trinni Heart is speedy and slow but may make his presence felt as a literal intermediary taking up space between contenders.
Upgrade, a 6yo and 29 race veteran, made his first dirt start last month at Churchill finishing second at today\'s distance. He paired his top, having run it at Keeneland, poly, earlier this year. This guy is intriguing. He\'s in the best form of his life and one has to wonder why his prior connections given his breeding--Saint Liam out of a Fit to Fight mare--didn\'t try dirt earlier. Often first dirt runners (actually first anything runners getting a surface for which they\'re bred) explode. Upgrade improved but only a point to pair his top. What we know is that he\'s 4 to 6 points slower than the others, is not helped much by the weights and may lose ground as a stalker type (see path info, upper right). Certainly he\'s tough use to win or place but I wouldn\'t exclude him in supers.
Travelin Man just started his fourth campaign finishing third to Apriority at GP in an optional claimer about 5 weeks ago. His prior three campaigns were 6, 5 and 4 races which qualifies this guy as an ouchy sort but fast. Indeed he debuted over this track with his top, 3 points worse than Star Harbour\'s, but a big negative effort which he wasn\'t able to come close to in the 5 subsequent races in 2011. But he has run back to it three times, twice last year (March and July) and earlier this year (March again). Note the two March pair-ups, came 2nd off the layoff, today\'s spot. That\'s not surprising since ouchy horses often run their best early on in a campaign because the efforts exacerbate the physical issues.
So this guy is coming up to what appears to be a big effort, over a surface on which he\'s run well many times. He gets a bit of weight and despite post 5 he may sit on rail and then swoop. Note he\'s been on the rail in 3 of his last 4 races. Seems to me 6-1 is pretty good here.
Singanothersong just broke through to a new top, one which was about 16 months or so in coming. That in and of itself is not a good sign, but he\'s a 3yo and often young ones that just break through have another move in them. Indeed his last two are his best two. He has 6 weeks into this and gets 4 to 8 pounds from all. Moreover Race Shapes makes him out as fastest through the first furlong which may mean a ground saving trip despite the 6 hole. That\'s the half-full view. The half-empty version offers up the fact that he is slowest coming in, some 3 to 7 points on raw figures and the conditions can\'t make that up and usually a 3 point top 16 months in coming is following by a Spalding effort, a bounce. Furthermore a look at the sire profile indicates that Songanaparayer foals develop on average 3 points from 2 through 3, the amount Singanothersong jumped up. He may be tapped out. At 8-1 as the slowest coming in, you have to let this guy beat you.
Apriority had a heckuva of a run from late three (2010) through 2011, and then excepting one run tailed off in 2012 stopping in July. This year has been even worse with the exception of his last run, earlier this month, beating Travelin Man among others. That effort, pairing his secondary top, has given rise to hopes that indeed Apriority is regaining sub-zero form. Third off the layoff, a good move for trainer Fawkes (see trainer profile), decently weighted, albeit with an outside post, Apriority might have better in him but he\'s only 4-1. Possible but not a big bargain.
Black Diamond at 122 going from the 8 hole is the worse bargain of all. Fifth fastest coming with the conditions heavily against him, a bad return race, even a top effort could very well result in a mid pack finish. This guy needs rain.
Long winded--sorry. But second choice Black Diamond is a play against. Travelin Man looms good value if he\'s anywhere near the morning line. Apriority is iffy and one can protect with Star Harbour.
Alan,
A very \"thoro\" analysis and I would have to agree that anything close to the ML on Travelin Man represents great value. I doubt TM will go off more than 5/2 with 3 identical tops over the surface and the well known TAP profile coming from magical Palm Meadows to GP.
The horizontals in the pick 5 and pick 4 here interest me quite a bit with typical GP big fields and the value of .50 multiples with 15-20% respective take outs on the wagers. IMHO the only chance we normal everyday players have any longer with batch betting killing the exacta and triple pools at any major track de jour.
I would use only TM and Star Harbour on top in horizontals; for a little vertical value split those 2 on top and in the 3rd and 4th slots for tri\'s and supers using Upgrade and FT Loudon in the 2nd spot, with exacta plays the same way.
Inside and speedy on FL overcomes short rest here; this surface has been known to be a bit speed favoring on weekend stakes days! Upgrade is very interesting as a forward moving 6 yr old @ 12/1 plus.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Thanks for the free data guys.
I\'m going to try to end 2013 with a bang. In race 6 at Santa, get out the
telescope and have a look at Canopus. Much slower than 5 or 6 more accomplished
runners here, Sadler gets Mike Smith to ride this son of Mizzen Mast, who should
like a mile on grass.
20/1 ML
He shows a pair, not quite as fast as others but turf and distance fit his pedigree well and the price is there. Good luck.
In keeping with the old saying of don\'t let the top fig horse beat you especially at a price you have to be all over the #14 in the 5th at aqu. Jumped up huge last time at parx running faster than anyone in this race. Was it the blinks added first time or just some good old parx \"magic\"??...don\'t care because at 30/1 ML i\'ll pay to find out..They also just switched the jock to Wilmer Garcia so i\'m going to get some weight also. Suprised there was no mention of the top fig horse at big odds in the analysis.
Had to draw in and usually big tops are followed by big bounces.
TGAB Wrote:
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> Had to draw in and usually big tops are followed
> by big bounces.
Agreed..and that would be exactly how I would have bet if he were single digit odds but I couldnt resist at 50/1...unfortunately ran to his odds.
Ya gotta be in it to win it. I understand the allure. Next time or maybe the one after that or ..., etc.
I\'ve finally worked out a pick 4 ticket on the above sequence of races 7-10.
Race 7: I love the inside posts on the mile & 1 1/16 turf races here.
Manero - a string of competive 10\'s and the rail
Guayana - pairs the 8\'s or goes forward inside
Dream With Us - Walder/Rocco a solid combo, an ouchie with back 7\'s here.
Race 8:
Mr Online - fast,inside and a price
Hakama - forward moving, not quite fast enough yet, an odds play
Nikki\'s Sandcastle - outside and short price but too fast to leave off
the ticket
Race 9:
Travelin Man & Star Harbour
Race 10:
Minx - forward moving off 1st turf try, fast and a 4 & 5 on the Dam side at 3 on
the grass; We will press with this one.
First Romance - Sheppard, rested, going in the right direction and good
dam side turf numbers as well
Egot - Angel Penna off the bench, fast early 3yr old #\'s
3 x 3 x 2 x 3 = 54 X $5 = $ 270 play
3 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 18 x $5 = $ 90 play
Good luck,
Frank D.
The top on Star was in a claiming race.. I use numbers, but I will always use class as my best gambling tool. Not many agree with me, but a neg4 in a claiming race is not the same in a grade one or classier race.