Andy Beyer likes Read the Footnotes, so you can toss him from the win position. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then however and RTF is a serious runner.
http://drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=53516&subs=0&arc=0
I\'m a little confused because Beyer then goes on to say his exacta is Birdstone-RTF. If I was calling RTF the winner, I\'d call my Exacta RTF-Birdstone. though I\'d probably box because I\'ve been beaten too many times when I was down to two horses. But I\'d weight the exacta heavier towards my horse of course.
I think with breeding you have to analysis race results. I\'m not gonna say RTF can\'t handle 10 marks. If Mr. Prospector can sire a Derby winner theres no reason Smoke Glacken can\'t and RTF is not built like a sprinter. Smoke Glacken\'s Dosage is 4.09. (Note Mr. Prospectors was only 3.95) Is that .09 disqualifying? And if it is also note RTF\'s dosage is 2.00. He\'s bringing some stamina from his dam side.
I don\'t agree with Beyer\'s position that the California horses are too slow. Theres plenty of time for moves forward and I think theres some serious horses out West. They\'ve just begun to run there as well.
Bottom line is Andy Beyer likes the Violette horses and one of Zitos. Violette must feel like TGJB did when someone on the Rag Board selected his two future bets. Its the kiss of death.
lol
CtC
Post Edited (02-21-04 16:10)
The most interesting part of the article IMHO is that Beyer used the word \"explosive\" three or four different times in exactly the same context a sheet player might use it.
If I didn\'t know better, I would think that Mr. beyer has become a closet \"tea leaf reader\" ...
Chris
Obviously, saying the CA horses are slow, Mr. Beyer may have been drinking too much Jack.
violette has them really cranked up. zito is going very slow with his horses. i am a big fan of RTF, but the more i think about it, the more i think violette is being too aggressive, and zito is doing the right thing...... and CtC, you will take Swing over Shaniko at any distance? something tells me Swing will be a bit tired by Wood time, and Shaniko will be close to his top.
and CtC, you are a big fan of the breeding part of the game; did you see pletcher\'s storm cat horse (half to chief bearheart) last week? looks like that one could be a monster. keep an eye out for her (sorry, forget her name).
Shaniko could be the better by the Wood. I\'m not sure when I heard Shaniko was a \"wise guy\" horse. It may have been after his maiden win. But as much as I like A.p. Indy\'s, that alone isn\'t enough to light a fire under me. He\'s fighting very much an uphill battle to be good enough to get into the Derby field.
That wasn\'t a Stakes race he just lost. It was a NW1X. It was his fourth race and second at the track and though the T-Graph number is apparently a forward move he came home in 27 and change. (extrapolated) That kind of closing fraction is not gonna win a Derby, unless you go way, way back. He was slow early and slow late.
A.p.\'s stud fee is 300K. He gets that on reputation to some extent. Shaniko sold for 550K. Thats a nice profit, but it also means he\'s not perfect. SFTF\'s sire on the other hand has a stud fee of about 24k and he sold for 300k and his race results seem to indicate that he has probably overcome the sale workouts the pinhookers push on the two year old in training sales. That tells me he may be put together better than Shaniko, though I haven\'t had a good chance to eyeball them yet.
Sales prices don\'t always indicate which horse is better, but they can shed light on conformation. Silver Charm went for 70k is my recollection. Real Quiet and Seattle Slew 17k. (Slew walked like a sailor but ran like a gazelle) Captain Steve about 90K. Silver Ending and Second of June about 7.5K. If I remember right Fupig went for 4,000K. I don\'t think Fupig won the Derby on breeding. I think he was as Hancock put it conformed like \"Superman\".
Take a close look at SFTF\'s past performances. Has this horse shown any inclination to stop? Especially as compared to Shaniko? I wish I\'d taken a look at T-Graphs Red Board for this race, it slipped my mind, but I have a pretty good idea of where they respectively stand.
CtC
I think the filly\'s name is Platinum Heights. I didn\'t see the race, but I did a progeny search for Amelia Bearhart (Chief Bearhart\'s dam) and Amelia has a 2001 Storm Cat filly named Platinum.
I also reviewed the Sammy Davis in T-Graphs Red Board Room. On T-Graph TCE laid over that field, he had 2-3 point edge on his nearest competitor. (Hitthegroundrunning) The fastest Graph number Kaufy Mate had run was a 9.5 twice. But T-Graph noted that he had been taken up one race and not extended in another. Also his first 3 year old attempt was obviously a toss. Noted was the internal move in that event.
I don\'t review the Red Board room much anymore. I use it selectively to review certain races. But I have a question. If I select the whole Tampa Bay card is that One Viewing or 12 Viewings? Additionally, after I checked the \"Symbol Key\" for T-Graph symbols (!) (h?) for Kaufy Mate, I returned to the Sammy to confirm Kaufy Mate\'s having been assigned those symbols. For that second viewing of the same race I was docked another viewing. Is that how it works?
I don\'t have any intention of stealing T-Graphs data. If I\'m gonna use it for handicapping I\'ll buy it, as I once did.
CtC
> I don\'t review the Red Board room much anymore. I use it
> selectively to review certain races. But I have a question. If
> I select the whole Tampa Bay card is that One Viewing or 12
> Viewings? Additionally, after I checked the \"Symbol Key\" for
> T-Graph symbols (!) (h?) for Kaufy Mate, I returned to the
> Sammy to confirm Kaufy Mate\'s having been assigned those
> symbols. For that second viewing of the same race I was docked
> another viewing. Is that how it works?
If you download the entire card it\'s one download. If you download the same product more than once, you are only \"charged\" once.
If you download the entire card, then later download one race of that card, that will count as 2 downloads.
Thanx for the prompt reply.
I don\'t download it. I merely \"view\" it from the source. I was charged two views for the same race (10th) and one for the (11th) which I thought was the Sammy Davis...lol. But I\'ll take your advice and download to prevent that from happening. I was concerned cause I wan\'t to be able to follow you through this Triple Season.
CtC
Post Edited (02-22-04 16:45)
Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
> Thanx for the prompt reply.
>
> I don\'t download it. I merely \"view\" it from the source.
view or save is considered the same. I\'ll look into you being double-booked on that one race.
I
> was charged two views for the same race (11th) and one for the
> (10th) which I thought was the Sammy Davis...lol. But I\'ll take
> your advice and download to prevent that from happening. I was
> concerned cause I wan\'t to be able to follow you through this
> Triple Season.
>
> CtC
all good points my friend...... always value your opinion. just taking a shot, gives you something to root for.
Violette\'s not stupid. He\'ll take down whatever purse money he can while the iron is hot.If I had a 3yo out of Smoke Glacken, I\'d point for the Derby------------------ the Florida Derby.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The Florida Derby will go a long way to telling if RTF is a bona fide Kentucky Derby horse. I don\'t put much stock in what trainers say about their horses but for one thing. When a trainer says his horse isn\'t \"fully cranked\" I tend to believe it. Violette said that about RTF for the Fountain of Youth. The problem of course is the horse doesn\'t know whether he is \"meant\" for a a race or not and I think a horse can overcome careful training with his desire to win and put forth a race where he essentially performs as fully cranked.
As good as this horse is I\'m suspecting I\'ll be taking a shot at him on Derby Day, but I don\'t hold his Smoke Glacken breeding against him. RTF is a member of Smoke Glacken\'s third crop and Smoke has already sired a 9 mark stakes horse in Smokin Frolic. (winner of over 1 million). Smoke Glacken was a sprinter but so was Mr. Prospector. Even Storm Cat only has a Dosage of 4.0.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=check&search_bar=horse&h=smoke+glacken&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n
If the numbers were all secret and T-Graph could pick any horse from the crop to win the Derby for a purchase of 250,000 I\'m guessing RTF would get serious consideration if not the drop of the hammer.
The Florida Derby is shaping up as bang up contest. RTF, Birdstone, Tapit, Bobby the Juice with Master David, Sir Oscar and others.
CtC
Post Edited (02-23-04 18:10)
Bobby the Juice will have MASTER DAVID \"cranked\" as he does all of his charges when they arrive at Gulfstream. Look what he accomplished on Fla Derby day last year when \'MAKER and MIDAS EYES both ran lights out.
I suspect that SIGHTSEEK will also find her best form when she ships there in March. It\'s amazing how well Frankel\'s horses do once they leave Santa Anita.
As for Todd Pletcher, you can form your own opinions about him. His high winning percantage outside of the days when everyone is watching raises my suspicions.
It\'s amazing when you look at the recent Derby winning trainers; TAGG, BAFFERT, LUKAS, DRYSDALE, ZITO, WARD, ...trainers who are known to be \"clean.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
joe,
baffert\'s horses have tested positive a few times, while pletcher\'s have not. fair to have suspicions about pletcher and not baffert?
Michael D--
You\'re correct about Baffert\'s testing positive---- in California. Not sure Baffert would be crazy enough to play games on Derby or BC day. The same goes for Pletcher.
Of course all of my rants cannot be backed up with any proof. It\'s just that I see guys like Dutrow, Pletcher, McLaughlin, Frankel, Mullins, O\'Neill, etc. do things with horses that defy the logic I\'ve come to know in my 30 years of playing this game. Can anyone tell me that these guys are better trainers than Lukas, Allen Jerkens, Bill Mott, Christophe Clement, or Wally Dollase? Yet over the past several years, the former list has certainly put up much better stats.
PS: I\'ll make a gentlemen\'s bet with you that PEACE RULES makes a full return to his 3 yo form on Sunday at the Fair Grounds now that Frankel has taken him out of Santa Anita.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
i think part of the success of guys like pletcher and mclaughlin can be traced to their quarter horse training connections. horse racing has become a game of crank em up and spit em out. starting with lucas, and continuing through baffert and pletcher, the guys who are willing to train all kinds of speed into horses, then just put them out there and see how far they can run are the guys who have dominated. but i surely understand your concern. when i saw the assmussen filly go 1:20 and change this summer at saratoga, i had immediate suspicions. the guys who think this sport is clean are definitely fooling themselves.
the problem with the whole drug mess is that guys who are doing things the right way, and are doing very well, are immediately under suspicion. if i were pletcher (and i was clean, which i think he is, but can\'t be sure), i would be out there calling for tougher drug testing immediately.....i will take a look at the FG race on fri night. looks like it is coming up awful tough.
Michael D---
Of the guys I mention in my prior post, I can honestly say that the only one whom I may be completely off base with is PLETCHER.
My suspicions with him have more to do with some of the horses in his barn mysteriously dying last year than the dramatic performance rating improvements that occur with the rest of my list.
As cynical as i can be, I actually thought that LADY TAK\'S race was legit. I think 7f is her optimum distance and SARATOGA tends to yield some unbelievable performances within the stakes ranks going that distance.
Anyway, I think I\'ve pounded this topic enough. Good luck with the FG race.
Joe B.
Lukas has had a couple positives. I can recall one for cocaine. Oh, I know, \"Why would a trainer give his horse cocaine\"? I don\'t know. I don\'t know why they give them EPO and steroids either, but I suspect its to win.
Lukas has chewed up and spit out more good horses than 100 trainers of integrity could ever hope to have. He use to dominate the sales. I think the major market players just wised up to his \"numbers\" game. He\'s still got 19 nominees this year, but hes slumming now for the most part.
http://www.horse-races.net/library/tc04-nomsbytrainer.htm (I checked out his horses, if they mature for the Derby on time it won\'t be masterful horsemanship)
He\'s rarely in on the big horses anymore. I believe that even Bev and Bob Lewis only send him a token few out of regard for Charismatic.
Did you guys forget the \"master horsemen\" ran Charismatic for a tag? Did you forget the Proud Citizen jump ups? Did you forget how he\'s ran every horse he\'s ever had into the ground but for the exception of Cat Thief? Anyone want to take a guess at whether Azeri ever starts for Lukas?
This guy was the biggest shill in the game and cared squat for his animals. If you think he isn\'t playing foot loose and fancy free with the regulations you\'re dreaming.