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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: JohnTChance on February 20, 2004, 01:36:29 PM

Title: Figure-based curiosity...
Post by: JohnTChance on February 20, 2004, 01:36:29 PM
Reference is made to GRAND PIANO, who was entered in
Gulfstream\'s 5th race on Monday.

Trainer Peter Walder does well when he uses \"go-to\" jockey
John Velasquez. Specifically, the stats of that trainer-jockey
combo are:

96 starts - 28% wins - 64% in-the-money. Fine.

Curious then, that the TG FIGURE-BASED stats of the combo
tell something of a different story:

32 starts - only 6% top! - 22% pair - 47% off race

Now... it seems to me, that in many of the Walder - Velasquez
pairings, their mount is the overwhelming 4-5 favorite who merely
has to repeat or pair-up their last race to win, and Walder is just
dropping to win a purse.

Nevertheless, it begs the questions: Aren\'t we missing a a simple
needed figure-based category here? Does Walder\'s horses tend to
MOVE FORWARD when he goes to John Velasquez? [Or not?]
That is, MOVE FORWARD (NOT NECESSARILY A TOP). [The
situation might involve an older horse whose \"top\" was three years
ago - something that\'s now out of reach for the animal. But I STILL
want to know merely whether the combo tends to yield a FORWARD
MOVE.

I hope I\'m making sense here. Raise your hand if I\'m not.
Any feedback welcome. The figure-based stats continue
to intrigue.

JohnTChance