Clear speed bias required some last minute adjustments yesterday as it was evident that no one was going to close on the main track. Was on my way to a decent day but blew it all, and then some, on the Distaff on a big Royal Delta/Beholder Exacta as felt extremely confident I had that race and the bias doped out. No clue why RD ran so poorly.
Assuming the bias is still there, here are some general thoughts about Saturday.
Juv Fillies - Artemis Agrotera looks like a decent key horse as long as Lezcano gets her off the rail on the backstretch. Going to use with other speed types and see if I can get 2 of them home in the Tri.
F&M Turf - Dank is an obvious key horse. She loves firm turf and has number power. Laughing could get a lone front running trip but something seems off with her in the AM, dunno if that means anything or not. If you factor in the 2pt adjustment that I mentioned yesterday for the Euro\'s, Romantica fits here for a piece, no disgrace losing to Treve in her last. Alterite gets 4 pounds and probably gets a nice, stalking trip.
F&M Sprint - Groupie Doll is not the same mare as last year. I think that makes this race wide open. Lots of stalkers here and not a lot front runners. I think that will make for some wide trips and trouble, tough to say who survives that. Assuming the bias is still there I may take a flyer and try to stress some of the front runners. Speed of the speed is Sweet Lulu but she has Leparoux on her. Starship Truffles and Teddy\'s Promise have big numbers to run back to and if they get a biased aided trip lookout. Tough race to play with any confidence.
Turf Sprint- Mizdirection a perfect 6/6 on this course. She just beat me last year as I was on Unbridled\'s Note. They both have outside posts again for this and probably don\'t offer much value. Rene\'s Got Zip gets 3 pounds and has enough speed to probably work out a decent trip over this quirky course layout. Chips All In another that really seems to like this course. Depending upon how my day is going I may pass this race or play it but insist on keying a price horse like Havelock with the a few of the above and All. Some very illogical horses can hit the board and lead to a nice Tri or Super payout in this race.
Juv - 13 2 year olds in the gate with a short run to the first turn, some trying 2 turns or dirt for the first time. What could go wrong with that... Staying with my \"Off Pletcher\" angle and tossing Havana. The Pletcher angle and the tough outside post are enough for me and if he beats me oh well. Tap it Rich is going to take a lot of money here too. In his debut he hopped at the start, broke last, raced greenly into the first turn and went wider than he had to, made up all the ground on the backstretch but then raced greenly into the 2nd turn and went wider than he had to again, but still had enough to draw off and win by a little over 4. He\'s been working well but also works greenly. I think he lacks the experience for this. If he was a stick out on numbers you could still play him. But he\'s not and I think there are others here that are better. Mexikoma will be a much longer price and looks a very talented horse now in the hands of Team Valor and equipped with blinkers which seem to have helped this colt. Going to use him as my key horse. A few thoughts on the others. Medal Count and Conquest Titan both had more trouble in their last than is noted. Conquest Titan had to check in the stretch and Medal Count never got room to launch his bid. It wouldn\'t surprise me if either of them run better and hit the Tri. Diamond Bachelor is a very talented, headstrong colt that is bred more for the turf and synthetics. He went too fast early in his last but still showed guts and talent to hang on for 2nd. I would suspect they will send him here because they won\'t have a choice not to and that might play right into the bias if its still around. Strong Mandate has two big figs to run back to but bounced in his last. Lukas was very vocal in blaming the bounce on a poor ride and now switches to Rosario. Can he work out a trip from the 14 post and run back to those earlier figs? I think he will be up against it to do that.
Turf - Real Solution is my key horse. If The Fugue runs her race she will be tough, but I like the way Real Solution is training but will need a little luck with the trip from the 12 post. The price should be rice. Twilight Eclipse may be circling back to a big one again and will be a price.
Sprint - if the bias is around I will stress front runners. If not I will probably pass this race in the verticals as I have no strong opinion.
Mile - I think Wise Dan is gone but offers no value other than as a single.
Classic - if the bias is around I am going completely off the reservation and going to key Moreno to hit the board at a price. He\'s a front runner and much more gutty than he gets credit for. He gets weight, he\'s well bred and has every right to move forward as it is. The way I will play it he won\'t have to win and it won\'t matter who hits with him because at the price he is likely to go off at I will have him every which way. If the bias is not around I may still do that anyway but temper my enthusiasm a bit.
I like the younger horses for the classic
A. Declaration of War & Will Take Charge
B. Palace Malice & Last Gunfighter
C. Paynter (plus the older horses for the tri, Flat Out, Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man & Game on Dude)
Good luck to all
with all doe respect, forget A and B
mjellish wrote:
F&M Turf - Dank is an obvious key horse. She loves firm turf and has number power. Laughing could get a lone front running trip but something seems off with her in the AM, dunno if that means anything or not. If you factor in the 2pt adjustment that I mentioned yesterday for the Euro\'s, Romantica fits here for a piece, no disgrace losing to Treve in her last. Alterite gets 4 pounds and probably gets a nice, stalking trip.
Very nice Thanks
The A\'s ran well :)
Nice call on those two!
I am confused by your childish and worthless attacks on this forums newcomers and beginners. bbb