Apologies to Rick, who feels it is too early to post thoughts. I guess I can\'t strongly disagree, but personally, post position draw will be more likely to \"tweak\" my strategy, then have me change my opinion completely on a horse.
Like a lot on this board, I am looking at attack the favorite 90% of the time. That said, the Breeder\'s Cup is a little different in that even the chalk is not too overweight in most races and I don\'t mind finding a few \"stand\" horses each day to build horizontal wagers around, even if they are relatively short-priced horses.
I will start off by saying the horses i view as the two most likely winners of Breeder\'s Cup races are Bobby\'s Kitten in the Juvy Turf and Wise Dan in the Turf mile. No rocket science there. Bobby\'s Kitten took all kinds of pressure in his second race, embroiled in an unnecessary speed duel, then just drew off. Rated beautifully in his second race, then drew off stylishly, never challenged, in a decent quality field. The \"lasix off\" and the cross country ship are the hurdles, but I think this horse is real quality. Wise Dan is just Wise Dan. I would like to give Silver Max a chance to win, but after the connections of Obviously saw the rating tactics go up in smoke, have to think they send hard, and I don\'t like Silver Max rating off the pace. I think the fast pace, and associated spread out field, will mitigate ground loss to a degree and ensure that Wise Dan gets a reasonable trip.
Now, some horses to use around those \"stands\". I have already been told by one regular poster here that Much Macho Man is the \"sucker\" horse in the classic, but count me in as a sucker. When i saw his race at Saratoga, it looked exactly like a horse that was \"rounding\" into form. Never mind that he seemed to get a huge fig anyway, but visually he also looked like a horse on the improve. I realize that with Paynter\'s quality \"suspect\", he beat nothing in his last race, but boy could Mucho have been more impressive? break alertly, sit a wide trip, engage when asked and draw off, getting another huge fig. So, he is apparently in peak form, at a track he likes and I believe he will get a nice trip. When you look at the Classic, I can\'t see any scenario besides a fast pace. Fort Larned\'s people have to believe his best chance is sending. Game on Dude will not sit back off the pace like last year, you can bet Baffert will be instructing the jockey to stalk the quick pace and attack by the half mile to three quarter mile mark. You also have to believe the pea brain connections of Moreno will have their jockey send. (yes, \"pea brain\", based on the dumb comments after the Travers). Mucho Macho will be sitting a few lengths off this pace, which should take some toll on the front runners. Have to believe he gets first run. At around 5-1, he is my horse.
In the F&M Turf, call me a \"homer\", but I am against Dank. Not based at all on what I saw at Arlington, of course. An absolutely huge run. But after years and years of betting against West Coast turf horses, running big figs on brick hard courses, coming to Arlington and running awful, why wouldn\'t I believe the opposite? I think the logical 2nd and 3rd choices, are the one\'s to use the most. Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix. I know Marketing Mix has the slightly better TG numbers, but Tiz Flirtatious has been so visually impressive, seemingly getting stronger and stronger. She will be tough with any kind of trip.
In the Marathon, a race which annually gives me a headache, I am interested in a couple horses, although I can\'t even guess as to whether they will be prices or not, because I am clueless as to how the crowd with bet this race. Cease seemed like a dead horse a few races back. He ran good 2 back, on figs, and Jacobsen claimed him. He has VERY strong back figures and Jacobsen has been moving up horses in New York all year, albeit not as much in the last few weeks. Cease ran a good, wide fig in this race 2 years ago, and anything in the 0 range, with a trip, should win. The other to use for me is Indian Jones. No class, but in this race, who does have it? He is sharp, bred well for the distance, and in a very bad field, could be the \"now\" horse.
I am looking forward to the F&M sprint. Count me in with the horde who believes Groupie Doll is not the same horse. Guessing we will hear TGJB disagree, based on her TG figs looking better than her races on the track. Right or wrong, over the years I have learned to mix in my own impressions with the figures. When I saw Groupie Doll two back \"break the track record\", while having trouble putting away a starter allowance horse, I said she isn\'t the same. Could not wait to attack her next time out. She ran OK at keenland, but again it looks like a phony wide type of figure. The likely second choice, Book Review is a VERY COMMON horse, who has a VERY CLEAR top, which she can likely run again, but is not good enough to win, unless many others don\'t fire. An easy toss for me. I don\'t have a \"stand\" in this race, but rather a horizontal spread, with a few that I like. I think Kiaran\'s horse has significant upside. Last time out, 1st out for the year, raced against a speed bias in a race that had to tighten her up. Now I would expect a move forward, possibly a couple points, which would make her very tough. Think she is tactical enough to sit a trip, a few lengths off the pace, saving some ground potentially. Judy the Beauty is a horse who is seemingly coming to form. Must be used. Got a wide trip last time, but really seized command and drew away. Has always had talent. Dance to Bristol has to be respected. Has a bunch of figures that give her a good chance to win. Likely to be a bit overlooked, based on recent form, but an argument could be made she is the most likely winner. (I lean to Judy the Beauty, but it is close). The last one I like has earned slow TG figs, but a few of them are in California. (won\'t say anything else TGJB). Let\'s just say that I think Sweet Lulu has upside, tactical speed, and a good chance at a very good price.
The sprint is EASILY the weakest BC Sprint I have seen, especially with the passing of Points off the Bench. I like a few in here, the best price of which will be Gentlemen\'s Bet. He ran a few figs that would be very competitive in here, then his last couple not so much. Wondering with the spacing if he can run back to his top, at a nice price. Will respect Private Zone, but he looks like a bandwagon horse. Had him at 4-1 last time out, in a relatively weak Vosburgh, hard to take the same price in the Breeder\'s Cup, which he may be. I am interested in the lightly raced Baffert sprinter, who ran a tremendous race 2 years back in the BC Juvy sprint, then didn\'t stretch out so well on the Derby trail, but came back off a long layoff breathing fire last time, albeit in a bad field. He would have to move up, but as a 4 year old, 2nd off a long layoff, he could, at a decent price.
My last couple comments are that another chalk who would seem to be hard to beat is Royal Delta. I know that she ran relatively disgusting last time, believe me I know, as I needed her in that race for last leg of a very nice score. But her best race is just much better than the 3 year old fillies have run. Hoping the last race makes her 2-1 value in the multi-race bets instead of odds on.
And then good luck to Jim Covello. Sorry to say that I like your filly in the turf race. How can I not like her off that last race. That said, you seemed to have entered the most contentious BC race, IMO. The only strong view I have is against the West Coast horse, hoping she goes favored as she has been beating tin cans out west, albeit easily. But 3 or 4 of the Euros can win, not just the hyped one, and the horse Jim\'s horse beat last time has to be used horizontally too, IMO.
Good luck to all.
Jim
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Apologies to Rick, who feels it is too early to
> post thoughts.
That was last week, when some were pressing for BC
handicapping before pre-entries were declared. I
mean, come on: these must be the same impatient
folk who feel compelled to finish their Christmas
shopping by Labor Day.
It\'s BC week now -- please, post away -- as I have
my TG\'s open and under review, while I keep one eye
on the World Series, my Blackhawks, and later,
Blacklist, the only new TV show worth watching
this season, IMO.
What a great time of year this is!
Bobby\'s Kitten is getting Lasix - DRF
It seems all Juvies can use!!
Jimbo,
Great great thoughts and exactly what we need around here. Well done. I promise to make some contributions to this string but I need a bit more time to form some coherent thoughts.
In the meantime, thanks for your thoughts on Testa Rossi. I have been lucky enough to run in the Derby, Oaks and Breeders Cup in the last 3 years but never with a filly like this. I think she is very special filly and the tg figs back that up. I don\'t think the outside post is a big deal. We will try to replicate exactly what Heart Shaped did from the 12 hole in the first Juvy filly turf. Horses that are taking back anyway don\'t lose much with that post. Bad post for stalker though obviously. I will be disappointed if we don\'t hit the board and I think regular readers on this board know that it\'s very unusual for me to go out on a limb like this, especially in a race of this caliber. The euro filly that drew the 2 is the one I fear the most. As I mentioned before in another post the last race that everyone is frothing over from Vorda was on a straightaway and she\'s bred to be a sprinter. The other euro ran poorly in her only try on firm turf and her 28 to 1 price in her last start suggests that maybe the last win was a function of the soft turf she likes as they wouldn\'t let a top filly go off at 28 to 1.
Whatever happens, it\'s a huge thrill to be in this position and I am really going to enjoy this week.
Will be back with thoughts on other races.
Thanks again for the thoughts and the good analysis.
That has to be a mistake or late change. Juvie races are supposed to be lasix free this year 2013(2014 it\'s permitted)
http://www.equibase.com/breederscup/newbcup/2013/juvenile.pdf
LX stands for lasix off. That\'s why everyone except euro shippers have an lx
Regarding Vorda, the \"straightaway\" was a Group 1 at Newmarket, and in her loss she was gaining late on a beast of a colt in another G1. I\'m not saying she\'s a good bet but I can understand the enthusiasm surrounding her. Good luck.
Magic,
Totally understand that it was a group 1 and she\'s obviously a very nice filly and of course she could win but this race has had a bunch of grade 1 winning euros flop as the favs in recent years. Sky latern was last year and she has just as much steam as vorda and Lillie Langtry was another recent one.
None of that means she can\'t win but no one should be betting her because she just won a grade 1 there because that hasn\'t historically meant much in this particular race.
I know there\'s a lot of reasons to bet against her and even more reasons to run against her. I just thought you were being a little dismissive of her accomplishments.
Thanks for clearing that up.
Jim,
Any thoughts on Sky Painter?? Looks like value from a figure perspective and having raced without lasix seems to help when looking at the race at hand. I would be interested in your thoughts and impressions as well as everyone else\'s.
Thanks,
Kevin
Plus her barn might be getting hot again at right time, though McL is 0/11 (granted sss) at SA. Awful post but that 2nd out fig is hard to ignore. And she won\'t be close to single digits.
With the posts of the two big figure ones so poor, I think this race is really wide open.
Hey Kevin,
I think Sky Painter is an awesome horse. For her to do what she did in her second race stretching out from 5.5 to 1 1/16 is awesome. Kirian is a friend of mine and an awesome trainer and I have the utmost respect for this horse in the race.
I think three awesomes in three sentences might be a record.
Hah, good one JB
I am pretty jacked up this week so I threw extra awesome\'s in there
For those using TG and Rags,stop laughing!
Those using both might have a heart attack when they look at some of the differences (Bondholder comes to mind, they have his last as a large backward move). It\'s hard to believe they still haven\'t done a standard sprint/route analysis for SoCal, the serious distance problems have been there for years.
We Miss Artie is the worst conversion in history!
Yeah, that was an interesting figure to do. It started raining before the 7th race (grass), that was the 8th, then it stopped before the 9th (another main track route), so that was the only main track race where there was rain. The only way the race made sense was if you broke it out-- winner got a big new top (which going in it looked like he would need even to get close), second horse (who I bet) a smaller one, rest of the race fell in line with several running bad. The way Len (or whoever) did it the winner paired his very slow top, and the rest ran absolutely horrible. Like 5-10 points off their tops. In a GI. Where they have the winner running a 17.
My guess is they don\'t have a \"live\" trackman, someone does ground off TV and they didn\'t know it rained. Which would be okay, IF they didn\'t make all the assumptions they do-- like the track stays the same speed all day. That\'s where their dogma kills their customers.
Awesome!
Great thoughts Jimbo. I\'ve thought for a while about my own opinions, some very similar to yours and some very different. But boiling it down....i Love that I can tell everyone my opinions and they won\'t affect my price at the windows and that others, contrarians likely, will differ so much.
I\'ve learned from 14 years of following the game all too close that Breeders Cup is not a place to conquer every race, so I narrow it down these days to very few places. Early thoughts:
Gabriel Charles (non Bc race)
Dance to Bristol
Mucho Macho Man
Working around those three to make my cash. Longshots that intrigue me: Sky Painter, Twilight Eclipse, and Bahamian Squall.
Best of luck to everyone. As contrarian as I am on the board, this is a great time to be a fan of the game and to be a fan of all horseplayers that enjoy the intellectual pursuit of horse racing profitability. Can\'t wait to hear Richiebee\'s thoughts on the weekend as well as many others. I encourage others to post away during this exciting time.
Steve Crist put it very well in DRF: While only one championship will be determined on Friday, the BC races presented that day are wide open gambling affairs with big fields which almost guarantee decent mutuels for both horizontal and vertical wagers.
I think whoever makes such decisions wasted an opportunity to provide horseplayers with an all BC pick 5 beginning with the Marathon. At first glance I wanted to ignore the race, but it is rather irresistible-- 10 starters who made their last start at 9 different venues, some regional trainers, a NY bred who has been slumming at some small English tracks. Eldaafer, the 2010 winner of this race who had raced in the Marathon the last 4 years, will not be there. Showing how canny the morning line maker is, Ever Rider, an Argentinian with a very modest resume, has been made 7/2 fave under Gary Stevens (we wont get fooled by a South American import again, right guys?) I like Hollendorfer\'s Blueskiesnrainbows (6/1, Pedroza) a bit based on his Santa Anita experience, but he looks like a need to lead sort in a race which has others who want the front.
The two Juvie turf races pose the same two problems: (a) The Lasix off issue makes playing these races more gambling than horseplaying and (b) only one Euro runner in the 2 races (Chriselliam in the Juvie Filly Turf) has raced at a distance of a mile or longer. Giovanni Boldini, second favored in the Juvie Turf, has never won on grass. Bottom line, as good and as fast as Bobby\'s Kitten and Testa Rossi look, they both go sans Lasix, and less appealing looking Euro\'s
are hard to ignore, as always.
The Dirt Mile looks straightforward to me: Goldencents likes Santa Anita, seems to be versatile in terms of running style, and now has the services of an accomplished pilot. Golden was second twice at 6 furlongs to the deceased Points offthe Bench, who may have gone favored in the BC Sprint. The runner I will be watching is Brujo de Olleros, who was rumored to be the second coming of Invasor upon his arrival in America. In winning a GR 1 stake on January 6 at Maronas in Uruguay, BDO broke a track record at the mile distance which stood for 75 years.
The real reason to like BDO is his second in the Kelso to Graydar, who looked and ran outstanding that day at Belmont. Hymn Book will be closing as always. Verrazano faces the toughest field of his career and offers no value to this horseplayer.
The Distaff will be a test of the champion mare Royal Delta. Was the Beldame defeat an intentional bounce engineered by master trainer Mott? How will the cat and mouse game between Smith and Stevens (Beholder) play out? How good is Princess of Sylmar? The hope here is that these three are equally bet in the horizontals.
A great tray of appetizers on Friday, and best luck to Jimmy C. A feast on Saturday. Bon appetit.
Not really a fair assessment of Sky Lantern as she did not have a good trip and was shuffle back at a crucial point due to traffic. There are other Euro\'s that could be mentioned who did flop. I just would not include Sky Lantern in that group due to her trip. As far as Vorda is concerned, she has a ton of class, is a small, athletic filly, has speed to get better position and has a finishing kick. The two negatives will be her odds and whether you feel she can get an American mile, which on a fast Santa Anita course should be much easier than a European course, straight or not. Just my opinion.