thanks...
Probably Wed night. We\'ll be sending an email tomorrow.
Why is the list of pre-entries so secretive? Has anybody seen an unofficial list anywhere?
Paolo Wrote:
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> Why is the list of pre-entries so secretive?
It\'s not \"secretive\", it\'s all over the DRF web site.
What it is at the moment, is unorganized. Today is
pre-entry day.
Do we need a pre-pre-entry process for people with
ants in their skivvies? By all means, let\'s start
handicapping the 2014 BC, too.
Chill a little, my brother from another mother.
Yep, just like my real brother. A real smart ass.
Paolo Wrote:
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> Yep, just like my real brother. A real smart ass.
LOL! You got me pegged. Guilty as charged.
But I have to ask: if you DID have all of the
pre-entries in your hands RIGHT NOW...what on
Earth would you possibly do that can\'t wait
a day or two...pending:
* actual FINALIZED entries
* post positions
* jockey assignments
* weather conditions
* interim workout reports
...and scads of other tidbits that won\'t be
known for another 7 days or so.
Serious question.
NFL draft is covered 3 full days on live TV. They are experts at marketing. I am simply asking why the Breeders Cup doesn\'t update a list of horses as they are pre-entered. I thought somebody in the industry might have rationale for the lack of action.
FWIW, I already got enough grief from my pals for downloading Bris files last week.
The reason for the delay is because when they release the pre entries, they rank the horses to determine the top 12 or 14 for each race and who will be excluded if there are no defections. The committee needs time to make those decisions. That\'s why there is a delay.
In terms of the shipping stuff, the conspiracy theory nonsense has reached such dizzying heights on this board that I don\'t read/post as much as I used to
It\'s absolutely normal to ship right on top of a race. You either do what Romans did and ship far in advance to allow them to get acclimated or you ship right on top of the race. Chad Brown has done same (ie ship monday) every year the breeders cup has been in California and his horses have run great in the bc.
It would be awesome if at some point we could get back to talking about handicapping horse races on this board and not have 3 out of every 4 posts be a conspiracy theory about cheating.
\"In terms of the shipping stuff, the conspiracy theory nonsense has reached such dizzying heights on this board that I don\'t read/post as much as I used to\"
Jim,
Seriously? So TAP, Chad Brown are not using their magic elixirs up to the last possible minute? Card carrying conspiracy idiots are disappointed in you!
Can you imagine gambling serious money based on who shipped from where and when?
Mike
Hah. Good one Mike. Love it.
As you know better than anyone, there is stuff that goes on and I want that stuff cleaned up more than anyone so that I am \"investing\" in a level playing field
That said, its just not helpful when ALL of the discussion on a board that formerly had awesome handicapping insights is about cheating.
Apparently, no one ever misses a race anymore because they got beat by a better horse, its only because the other horse was juiced up and it bothers me alot when thee are insinuations made due to things like when trainers are shipping when such shipping practices are 100 percent normal for any trainer anytime they are shipping anywhere to a race.
Jim,
Totally agree.The problem lies squarely at the feet of the Lords Of Racing.Their inaction and overall poor performance has much to do with the suspicion of the gambler.If racing were to become transparent, many of the misconceptions would disappear and then the real problems could be better addressed.
New NYRA CEO,a good guy,priority is to \"enhance the racetrack experience\".....sad, parroting another racing neophyte and NYRA Board member Bobby Flay.How\'s it gonna get better?
Mike
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hah. Good one Mike. Love it.
>
> As you know better than anyone, there is stuff
> that goes on and I want that stuff cleaned up more
> than anyone so that I am \"investing\" in a level
> playing field
>
> That said, its just not helpful when ALL of the
> discussion on a board that formerly had awesome
> handicapping insights is about cheating.
>
> Apparently, no one ever misses a race anymore
> because they got beat by a better horse, its only
> because the other horse was juiced up and it
> bothers me alot when thee are insinuations made
> due to things like when trainers are shipping when
> such shipping practices are 100 percent normal for
> any trainer anytime they are shipping anywhere to
> a race.
I strongly disagreed with the race of the week analysis last week strictly from a sheet reading perspective. The analyst diagnosed a horse as being a clear bounce candidate. My view of that horse was that it had an extremely strong pattern, was just as likely to move forward than to bounce (and its last bounce was a very small bounce anyway which meant it could bounce and win), and a pair up would easily win the race. Only one other poster bothered chiming in (to agree with me prior to the race). Notwithstanding the fact that the results on the racetrack proved me right, it would have been nice to have more discussion of sheet reading. The sheets for the Hudson are still up above. See if you think Palace was a bounce candidate or not. I loved his pattern. Only problem is a lot of other people saw the same things I saw. Nevertheless, even if you viewed his odds as too low to bet on him, you may have saved yourself some angst by just skipping the race at least (as Mr. Rick B says, people can go broke banging their head against legitimate favorites).
SoCal,
I saw your post and I thought it was excellent. I started to type up a response after the race to congratulate you but the drug talk on the board has me so disincentived to post that I deleted it before I hit send.
Either way, nice job. You read it perfectly.
I love the tgs and obviously use them religiously but I don\'t play horses to bounce anywhere near as much as traditional sheet theory says one is supposed to.
I used to 5 years ago but eventually got burned so many times leaving a logical horse out on a \"bounce\" that I realized that was fools gold.
There can be many reasons a horse doesn\'t run his/her race and a bounce is one of them but horses are individuals and we have to treat each situation as it comes and not apply one overarching view to every situation.
Now, maybe all of this is just wishful thinking on my part as my filly will come into next weeks race as the fastest horse on the tgs with a pattern that a hard liner would say looks like a bounce while I think she\'s set up perfectly for the race. So, maybe you should ignore all of my nonsense above!
How soon they forget.
You might recall we posted after last year\'s BC showing how certain supertrainers did in terms of tops, pairs etc. at the BC, compared to how they usually did. Was it because of enhanced testing/security? Maybe, maybe not. But the same circumstances exist this year, so it\'s something to think about.
Oh, check that. One of them decided to change the routine he had last year, so for him not exactly the same. Probably a coincidence.
As you might imagine, I\'ll touch on this in the seminar. My week of writing hell starts...now.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCal,
>
> I saw your post and I thought it was excellent. I
> started to type up a response after the race to
> congratulate you but the drug talk on the board
> has me so disincentived to post that I deleted it
> before I hit send.
>
> Either way, nice job. You read it perfectly.
>
> I love the tgs and obviously use them religiously
> but I don\'t play horses to bounce anywhere near as
> much as traditional sheet theory says one is
> supposed to.
>
> I used to 5 years ago but eventually got burned so
> many times leaving a logical horse out on a
> \"bounce\" that I realized that was fools gold.
>
> There can be many reasons a horse doesn\'t run
> his/her race and a bounce is one of them but
> horses are individuals and we have to treat each
> situation as it comes and not apply one
> overarching view to every situation.
>
> Now, maybe all of this is just wishful thinking on
> my part as my filly will come into next weeks race
> as the fastest horse on the tgs with a pattern
> that a hard liner would say looks like a bounce
> while I think she\'s set up perfectly for the race.
> So, maybe you should ignore all of my nonsense
> above!
Pardon my ignorance, but which filly are you speaking of? I would love to see her sheet and weigh in.
I agree with a lot of what you say. Forecasting a bounce is a very tricky affair. A bounce can be a beautiful thing. Big efforts make people fall in love with horses and bet a lot of money, and a wiseguy can take advantage of this situation by realizing that those people are making a mistake in their betting. Because of this, a lot of people like to force finding a bounce because then all of a sudden a race appears to present a rich opportunity.
I definitely forecast bounces, however, like you point out, I strongly prefer to forecast the bounce based on the particular horse\'s previous history rather than forecasting a bounce just based on principle. When I first started using sheets 25 years ago (the \"other\" product), one thing that was very strongly beaten in through those cassette tapes they used to sell was that you should never give a horse a bounce before it first gives you a bounce. That is very telling....you need to see what the history of the particular horse is telling you before deciding just based on a big last fig.
I really think that Palace\'s sheet is a very classic example of where blindly looking for jump up numbers to give bounces to can get you into a whole lot of trouble if you do not look deeper into that horse\'s sheet. Palace\'s first (and only) bounce was his first reaction point ever and that has a lot of important meaning that was glossed over. The new figure only represented a 4yo returning to its 3yo top not some new big jump up. Also, the first and only bounce was not a big bounce.
I would like to make a suggestion to our hosts -- maybe we can have specially designated threads in the forum that are like teaching threads....the only thing that goes in the thread are sheets of a particular type and discussion of the principle. For example, if we have a 0-2-X thread, then in that thread, we post sheets and discussion just about 0-2-X. I would nominate Palace\'s sheet for the thread called Bounce Traps (\"Traps\" because the sharp jump up figure, on the superficial inspection, looks like it is begging for a bounce, but upon closer inspection the horse\'s sheet shows that this initial reaction of applying the bounce principle is really a false positive).
Well, so much for my hope that we could bring the discussion back around to talking about horses.
JB, I have been very vocal about highlighting your work on cleaning up the game both publicly with the press and privately with people on the racetrack and you are certainly to be commended for those efforts.
Its your choice to use this board for a forum to talk about drugs vs. handicapping, after all, it is your board.
That said, I know alot of us would love to get back to talking about handicapping races and i somehow managed to have a very good year handicapping (with alot of my picks posted on this site earlier in the year) and I don\'t think for 2 minutes before I make a bet about drugs so the notion that this is something we have to spend alot of time talking about in order to make money gambling is silly.
I want the drugs out as well but mixing the drug conversation with the handicapping conversations is a silly side show.
Phenomenal post and an awesome idea about creating separate threads to talk about separate topics.
To make JB happy, we can dedicate one thread to the topic of \"I would have cleaned up at the track yesterday if all of the horses who I missed weren\'t juiced up\"
Lol
My filly in the breeders cup is Testa Rossi. She won the Miss Grillo at Belmont and ran a huge figure in the process. She\'s a perfect discussion point for a \"bounce\" thread.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Phenomenal post and an awesome idea about creating
> separate threads to talk about separate topics.
>
> To make JB happy, we can dedicate one thread to
> the topic of \"I would have cleaned up at the track
> yesterday if all of the horses who I missed
> weren\'t juiced up\"
>
>
> Lol
>
> My filly in the breeders cup is Testa Rossi. She
> won the Miss Grillo at Belmont and ran a huge
> figure in the process. She\'s a perfect discussion
> point for a \"bounce\" thread.
First, we have to know this.
When are you shipping her??
I too am tired of the conspiracy talk and drugs, but JB has every right to question the shipping patterns of certain trainers. The testing and surveillance is different than most days, and the results of some trainers were conspicuous last year. Coincidence?? Maybe, maybe not. It is at least worthy of discussion. (This paragraph was NOT intended to suggest in any way Jim\'s stable does funny stuff.)
Thanks P-Dub,
Chad is shipping out on Monday. He has followed the same pattern every year the BC has been at Santa Anita and he has had phenomenal success out there going back to Maram in the first juv fillies turf race with lexcano up (yes I am trying to channel that image for next Friday)
He said right after the Miss Gillo that was the plan because it has always worked so well. He always does all the breezes at Belmont, then ships out day after the final breezes.
Jim
How long was your filly in the states before running in Miss Grillo? She was getting first time lasix in the Miss Grillo right?
Don\'t know what the stats are with those making their 2nd start off the plane but I would be leaning towards a bounce before seeing the numbers. She did earn a 87 Racing Post figure for her prior race and Beyer assigned an 88 for the Miss Grillo, so it might not be a big jump forward. Maybe you have seen JB\'s numbers and it is a big move forward in his numbers. I would be more negative if the latter were the case.
Jim best of luck as always! T.
Thanks Tom
She jumped up very big on all speed figures. She was in the U.S. since the middle of August.
This is good example (I hope) of what I mean by not looking just at the numbers to call for a bounce. The issue will be clouded by the no lasix for any of them in the bc again.
Shes doing very well coming into the race and she will have only run one race since mid July coming into the bc so that\'s not what I typically think about as a bounce candidate
Let me say it this way, I am much much more concerned with traffic trouble in a 14 horse field with tight turns than I am about her not running back to her last race given what I know of the situation.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks Tom
>
>
> She jumped up very big on all speed figures. She
> was in the U.S. since the middle of August.
>
> This is good example (I hope) of what I mean by
> not looking just at the numbers to call for a
> bounce. The issue will be clouded by the no lasix
> for any of them in the bc again.
>
> Shes doing very well coming into the race and she
> will have only run one race since mid July coming
> into the bc so that\'s not what I typically think
> about as a bounce candidate
>
> Let me say it this way, I am much much more
> concerned with traffic trouble in a 14 horse field
> with tight turns than I am about her not running
> back to her last race given what I know of the
> situation.
If it wont upset the proprietor of the site, can you say what her career numbers are? If she has not yet bounced, then I would not say she is a bounce candidate at all (although the lasix off really complicates the analysis). I cannot say how important it is to not bounce a horse until it first gives you a bounce....horses at the start of the career are really just learning and figuring things out....and young horses really do go through a lot of physical development....if a horse has not yet bounced, then it really hasnt yet found its reaction point and it is very scary to just assume now is the time without more information. However, having said that, if i were to come across the next Ruffian and she ran a negative number as a 2yo filly, I would have to say that such a figure is so super-equine it must extract a toll.......however, it is exceptionally rare to run into super-equine figures.
>
> In terms of the shipping stuff, the conspiracy
> theory nonsense has reached such dizzying heights
> on this board that I don\'t read/post as much as I
> used to
>
> It\'s absolutely normal to ship right on top of a
> race. You either do what Romans did and ship far
> in advance to allow them to get acclimated or you
> ship right on top of the race. Chad Brown has done
> same (ie ship monday) every year the breeders cup
> has been in California and his horses have run
> great in the bc.
>
> It would be awesome if at some point we could get
> back to talking about handicapping horse races on
> this board and not have 3 out of every 4 posts be
> a conspiracy theory about cheating.
Amen!