I realize that betting on the Derby in February is a lot like playing the lottery but I like to make some sort of wager in the First Future book just to give me a horse to follow on the Derby trail.
Of course, it is pretty hard to find anything worth betting on since the fast horses all are likely to be overbet and are also very likely to get hurt before the Derby (there have been lots of posts about too fast too early in past years on this board). What makes it even worse is that most of the live longshots get buried in the \"field,\" which typically leaves only a few possibly playable horses.
I will \"fess\" up right now - this year may be my silliest play ever. I actually bet on a horse that has only one lifetime win (a maiden race) and just got trounced by 5 lengths in a nw1 allowance race on Saturday.
Why would I bet on such a horse to win the Derby? I could plead insanity but, believe it or not, I do have some semi-rational reasons for making the play although I probably should be getting 250/1 odds rather than the 50/1 for which I settled.
I would be interested in hearing what others played and why (including the TG folks) so please feel free to share your wagers if you were also crazy enough to bet on the Derby in February.
OK - I admit it - I played Shaniko.
Here are the positives, as I seem them:
1) He was almost 50/1
2) He was almost 50/1...Only kidding. I did have a few other reasons.
3) He is definitely bred to get the Derby distance (by AP indy out of a Pleasant Tap Mare)
4) He has solid connections (Pletcher/Velasquez)
5) He has some 2yo seasoning but is still lightly raced with a lot of upside potential (he made only his 4th start on Saturday)
6) He was pretty fast as a 2yo (top of 6) but not too fast. Horses that run fast at 2 typically don\'t hold together at 3 and I expect a lot of the top contenders to drop off the Derby trail again this year. I think that Second of June\'s injury and Half Bridle\'s training hiccup are only the tip of the ice berg. Keep in mind that at this time last year Empire Maker\'s top was only a 6 and Peace Rules\' top was only a 7.
7) Shaniko has a solid line heading into his race on Saturday and he looked ready to make another forward move and (I am only guessing here) that he did indeed move forward. Despite getting beat by 5 lengths he still may have run a pretty good figure. He was giving 4 lbs and a couple of paths to the winner, Swing For the Fences, and he finished about 4 lengths clear of everybody else, most of whom had been running in the 5-7 range with a few likely pairing their tops. So there is a good chance that SFTF simply ran a monster race and factoring in weight and ground, Shaniko may have actually jumped forward 2-3 points. That would leave him with a very strong, forward moving sheet and just one more forward move away from likely being competitive in the Derby (assume it will take around a zero to win), which is still almost 3 months away (plenty of time).
8) I liked the way Shaniko ran his last race. He sat near the back of the pack while being carried wide on both turns but showed a sudden burst of acceleration to zoom right past most of the field on the turn and grab the lead at the head of the lane. He then may have a hung a bit given the weight and ground loss and 9f distance and it was only his second 2-turn race. SFTF swung out in the stretch and simply ran right by Shaniko. That was a great race by SFTF and he looks like a legit Derby contender but there is no reason that at equal weights and with a better trip that Shaniko could not turn the tables with a little more improvement.
The negatives are the obvious ones including the fact that I am just guessing at Shaniko\'s last figure, however, at least now I have a horse to follow as the Derby approaches and, if Shaniko drops off the Derby trail, there is always Future Pool #2...
Now let\'s hear from the rest of you. It\'s time to start catching Derby fever!
Chris
Chris--
Crazy is taking low odds on the field. You could do worse than 50-1.
In analyzing the potential runners at this point, I think the 3yos from the West Coast are better than the experts are giving them credit for. Perhaps MASTER DAVID\'s effort in the FLA. Derby will shed more light on this.
Personally, I look for horses that have run a solid 7f or 1 mile as 2yos or very early in their 3yo campaign. If done in a stakes race, all the better. By solid, I do not mean that they picked up the pieces as the pace collapsed.
MONARCHOS, WAR EMBLEM, FUNNY CIDE, GRINDSTONE, SILVER CHARM are just some who meet this criteria.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
chris,
just to let you know, your shaniko cost me a $50 pk4 ticket, as well as the pk6 on saturday. i still like the horse though. pletcher seemed to be high on him, even after he lost. i will have my annual winter derby preview up later today.
I heard Shaniko\'s number called by some wiseguys some time ago. He\'s gonna have to move up quickly now, obviously his first big race can\'t be the Kentucky Derby. Though I think there was a maiden named \"Brokers Tip\" that won the Derby in the thirties.
After reviewing the Fountian of Youth card more closely its pretty clear the Fountain was a race horse race. Shaniko\'s race was nearly two seconds slower at a mile. He\'s not real fast early but you don\'t have to be to win the Derby. He\'ll have to improve significantly before then, but they all will. Well, then again maybe RTF only has to pair...lol
I just got that itchy feeling regarding the Derby. Sometimes it happens early. Sometimes late, sometimes it comes and then goes away. Sometimes I forget which horse gave me that feeling first and then lose the Derby over it. Go for Gin being an example. He won a race at GP and I felt itchy and said \"This is my Derby horse\" and then I got off him. I\'m looking to score my third consecutive Derby win. I win the dang thing in threes and miss excruciatingly close most other years...lol. Not that I\'ve won it all that many times, this year will make six when I cash the \"itchy feeling\". Caveat, Anees gave me the itchiest feeling I ever had. lol
Regarding the unraced Southern Hemisphere horse, I\'m not sure theres much anyone can say about an unraced horse. I imagine if she shows some affinity for running the decision whether to ship may get easier. Age restricted races are a significant way for a filly to turn a profit. If I\'m not mistaken shes gonna be behind the Northern Hemisphere foaled horses in development.
She seems nicely enough bred. Her sire and dam sire both tipped in at about 14,000 for their stud fees. I can\'t locate any progeny results so its hard to say what kind of runners are being thrown. I think shes leaning towards sprinting on breeding, thats always said with caution and her conformation and sales price would shed some light upon her.
If I owned a Southern hemisphere horse I think I\'d be inclined to race it where it was and if it showed some ability I\'d consider shipping it for its four year old season. Purse value and availability of age restricted races factoring into that decision certainly.
CtC
Post Edited (02-17-04 22:09)
I believe that Lion Heart and St. Averil are much better than any East Coast Derby horses right now. They are also much better than Master David, so if David wins the Fla Derby then if these 2 horses stay healthy, it will be there Derby to lose. Of course as with Second of June, you should play a future bet unless you get 50-1, so at 19 and 25 to 1, they were underlay.
ATD - very little wrong. the jock has had a very difficult time getting horses like this to cross the derby wire first (VG, aptitude, the st ballado horse, all flying late only to miss). running style and jock the only issues. somewhat of a contender.
bird - half sis was trounced when trying ten furlongs. zito says the horse is on the small side. i like the TG # move, however, when the horse went from 7f to 8 1/2 f. contender i guess, but i\'m guessing 10f aint the game here.
borrego - looks like \"5\" or \"6\" is the best this one will do at 10f. no thanks.
capac - very fast horse. finished with a ton of energy last. too many unknowns to recommend, but nothing would surprise me here.
Euro - definite contender. best 2yr old last year in my opinion, and the first prep was perfect. unbridled song couldnt\' get the 10f (wearing a bar shoe though), but this one gets a ton of stamina from the dam.
nothing wrong, and i imagine one of the top jocks will be aboard if the horse puts in one more excellent race. one of the ones.
FS - finishing very well at the end of his races, but with grand slam on top, and salt lake on bottom, i\'m guessing one won\'t get past a \"6\" or \"7\" at 10f. no.
gradepoint - definite contender in my opinion. the horse has been finishing very well at the end of his races, and the TG pattern suggests he is going in the right direction. last # might be a bit slow, but the horse left a lot on the track.
gran prospect - fast, and runs like he wants to go longer.... i just get the feeling he isn\'t going faster than \"5\" at 10f. outside contender, prob good value, but not for me.
halfbridled - obvious contender, but the horse has not run yet, and the OAKS is possible. too many question marks at this point for me.
LH - gets some stamina from the dam side, but i won\'t be betting the tale of the cat\'s going long until they get a few more 9 and 10f wins. worth noting that LH backed up a bit when going from 7f to 8 1/2
last year, and the bris late pace # was on the slow side in the hol fut win. a fast one for sure, but i will take a stand against going 10f.
LP - ran very well last time. not sure if i like pulpit\'s going 10f though. a good stab for some, too many questions for me.
MD - nice horse, not sure if it\'s a winning pattern though. something tells me this one one has only a bit of improvement left in him for the time being. any pattern experts out there care to give an opinion?
ME - really don\'t know here. guessing this one lacks the class to win the derby.
MJ - fast one, out of a nice mare. i have not seen him run, and need to see more class. a stab for some, not me yet.
RTF - i just know that the CD surface on derby day has been lightning quick the last few years. smoke glaken is all you here when RTF is mentioned, but SG could go 8 1/2f, and if the horse was by AP Indy, the odds would be 3-1 right now. tons of stamina on the dam side, and the the horse has finished very well in his last two routes. i think bailey sticks with this one, and i can see nothing wrong. one of the ones.
shaniko - note the TG stats; shaniko\'s dam did her best work sprinting. in last, JR asked the horse for run on the turn, and he exploded, but flattened out a bit. pletcher needs to do his best training job to date if this one is going to win the derby. i would like to see a bit more energy at the end of his next race (fla or la derby), and then a solid finish in the wood. not a lot of room for error here, but at 50-1, a solid bet to me.
SW - great horse, but just doesn\'t finish like he wants to go 10f. no thanks.
SO - NO
SA - a lot of money has been wasted on st ballado colts in derby future bets. ave winning distance only 7.0 f. this one gets more stamina from the dam however, and seemed to improve quite a bit when routing for the second time. looks a bit like LH to me, but i like the pedigree a bit more, and the horse has put in an excellent route already. contender.
Tapit - i have no idea to be honest. obviously has a shot at being great, but i need to see another race or two. a nice stab for somebody who knows more than i do.
TCE - no idea. zito likes his other contender\'s chances better going 10f, so i will go with him.
TH - nice horse, put him on the weeds.
so: out of the 23 contenders, my list goes
1. gradepoint
2. read the footnotes
3. shaniko
4. eurosilver
5. halfbridled
6. action this day
7. st averil
8. tapit
more to follow on horses not included in the 23 betting interests.
I can tell you now that you are a winner. How do I know? Because I got so caught up watching John Daly win the golf tournament that I missed post time for the futures. I was going to bet a few bucks on gradepoint, a few on st. averil and 80% of my bet was going to be shaniko.
Congratulations Chris.
Michael
still 50-1 at caesars.
I think a lot of money has been wasted on almost all the stallions in the Future Bet. Who has won it in the past few years? If you put a line under 1992 winner \'Lil E. Tee\" most of the winners since then were not by the most fashionable stallions. Mr. Prospector finally got his but if you tabulated the futures bet money he burned per the return, I\'m certain he\'d have a miserable R.O.I. (I know the current bet doesnt date that far back) I\'m fairly certain if you could go way back and count Vegas money only the obscure sires will have positive future bet R.O.I.s. I think highly of A.P. Indy, but how much money has he burned?
Distorted Humor
Our Emblem
Marias Mon
Mr. Prospector
Summer Squall
Quiet American
Silver Buck
Unbridled
Gulch
Cormorant
Polish Navy
At the Threshold
_______________________
Alydar
Fappiano
Halo
Caro
Alydar
Nijinsky II
Buckaroo
Seattle Slew
Halo
Cougar II
His Majesty
Exclusive Native
Bold Bidder
Exclusive Native
Bold Reasoning
Post Edited (02-17-04 21:13)
i looked at this last year..... the common thread for the derby is mr prospector, northern dancer, and buckpasser. if they have one, or even better, two or those infuences, they are eligible to win the derby (FC had all three). unfortunately, most ap indy\'s just are not ready for their best by derby time. last year i had the ap indy owned by the hollywood crew ranked first at this time (at long odds). of course he got a bad trip, and came flying for fourth. i think the two i have ranked high this year are a bit more agile than most however. but you are so correct, ap indy has probably taken the most bad kd futures money over the last few years.... my study last year was based on the last twelve or so winners, if you go back, i guess you could substitute raise a native for mr prospector.
Post Edited (02-17-04 21:48)
i guess based on my breeding study, i should give LH more of a chance. one solid route on \'04 and he hits the top five (tale of the cat has both mr prospector and northern dancer blood).
I dont have many I\'m tossing right now. Its still too early for that. I usually question the early favorites, though not on the Breeders Cup / Juvenile Championship angle. So I\'ve questioned Tapit and Second of June, but take a horse like Sir Oscar. I can\'t eliminate him yet. He ran some bang up two year old numbers and they put him away and in his first back he met some burners and didn\'t look good against them. Yeah I bet him. But the first one back off a layoff is excusable, though you\'d like to see a horse like that finish within striking distance in the manner of Action This Day. If you look for your three influential sires in a horse\'s pedigree, Sir Oscar has Buckpasser, Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector\'s foundation sire \"Native Dancer\". Though theres no dismissing the Count Fleet and Nashua from Prospector\'s dam side:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=SIR%20OSCAR3&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0
Anyway, how I rate Oscar in the future will depend in part upon his trainer, who I respect.
But Gulfstream is a funny track and I wouldn\'t take the results in the Fountain to necessarily mean the winning horse is as good as it appears. Both Trust n\' Luck and Empire Maker will vouch for that.
CtC
Gentlemen:
It\'s fun to speculate at this point, but there is no way to tout a potential Derby winner or non-contender at this stage.
I caught FUNNY CIDE last year only because I was lucky enough to be at Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial run on a drying out surface where the rail became quicksand after the 4th race. I watched FUNNY CIDE battle back on EMPIRE MAKER who was on the best part of the track with \'CIDE on the rail. I also watched him pull up 3 lenghths ahead of \'MAKER on the turn eliminating any doubt I had that he could handle the 10 furlongs. It took me until mid-April to, as someone posted prior, get that \"itchy feeling.\"
That being said, if you put a gun to my head and forced me to bet two bucks in the futures, I would stab with LUCKY PULPIT.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I have Eurosilver at 25-1 in Vegas; bet him after an impressive win at Kee. I have Birdstone and Tapit in pool one. Lion Heart is the best left coast horse i\'ve seen, but Biancone is the new D-Wayne, so he will ruin him! If the Derby was today, Bird would win it; he didn\'t run a big fig, but was visually stunning in his return. He also has a great profile; good at 2, strong return at three. Footnote may be a player as Remsen stake horses have done well in recent years.