Haven\'t bet on anything since the first race, the last Sunday at the Spa, proving that NYRA can survive without me and I without them. Had a friendly run in with a hulking, playful off-duty police dog which has caused some immobility of late, but after a couple of prednisones I am limping around with a sense of purpose.
Without going into great detail, I think the Pick 5 at Belmont on Friday is rather playable. I am not going to give NYRA credit, because it is probably the result of randomness, but there is variety in the sequence which makes it attractive on paper. The first race a wide open turfer that would be the feature race at 9/10ths of the tracks running in North America; the second race a NW2LT with a 6/5 program favorite who looks wholly unreliable (but look at some of the jocks named to ride in this race); the third race a stake featuring the BC Juvenile champ returning to a surface and distance where he has done his best work, 1/2 morning line. The fourth race, a full field of 20K claiming turf sprinters featuring a 6/5 TAP runner who stopped readily at 5.5 furlongs at the Spa, stretching to 6 furlongs. (I love a bomb here; maybe I can redboard him if he wins. If I named him pre - race, people would ask me if I was out of my mind). The final leg is a 50K maiden claimer (the only maiden race in the sequence) with a Tony Dutrow 9/5 favorite who was 13/1 in his MSW debut at Delaware.
The favorite in the first race is 9/5, so the morning line favorite in each of the five legs of the Pick 5 is offered at odds of less than 2/1.
How many of these favorites can you beat in the sequence? Will I even be awake at 1:05 PM this afternoon?
RB - I don\'t want you to think your clever clue about the identity of your 4th leg long shot went completely unnoticed. My guess is #2 although your reasoning could be deep.... Like having something to do with more race day scratches than starts in 2013. Or could be I\'m hallucinating and out of my mind.
In any case, hope you recover fully.