I need some help. I have been learning to use TG data for the past few months with some success, but I don\'t know what to look at when it comes to first time starters. The analysis refers to horses with the best FTS stats, but I\'m not sure which ones they mean. The 3rd at DMR today is an example. The analysis said Sawyer's Hill, Snuggley Bear, Karma King are bred to win early. I looked at the sheet and can\'t figure out what they saw.
Can someone shed some light on this for me.
xpfc Wrote:
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> I need some help. I have been learning to use TG
> data for the past few months with some success,
> but I don\'t know what to look at when it comes to
> first time starters. The analysis refers to horses
> with the best FTS stats, but I\'m not sure which
> ones they mean. The 3rd at DMR today is an
> example. The analysis said Sawyer's Hill, Snuggley
> Bear, Karma King are bred to win early. I looked
> at the sheet and can\'t figure out what they saw.
>
> Can someone shed some light on this for me.
There are several things I look at for first time starters. One thing you really have to keep in mind is that there are no firm rules. Eveything I say below needs to be really tempered carefully and can cut different ways at different times. That being said, in no particular order,
1) I look at the horses in the race who have run so far and try to determine if they are faster than par or slower than par......This is important because when you get a group of proven bums, almost any first time starter needs to be considered. If the maiden race is basically filled with horses that are going to be going on to stakes races, it sort of doesnt matter how good a firster the first time starter is.
2) for all first time and second time starters, the sheets have on the left hand side of the sheet, the trainers last 20 or so first time starters.....you can see several things here. First, some trainers tend to throw away the first race and never come up with a big number first out. Some trainers get huge improvement second start. If I am contending with a firster with a trainer who has a pretty solid record of moving up his second time starters, I tend to shy away from that trainer\'s firsters (reasoning that they are not going to be cranked up until next time). Some people get good first out efforts. Some really depend on the situation. When you look at the firster/seconder history, you need to see what odds the horses have been going off at, what class they have been entered at, distance, surface, age, and sex. It is a lot of work to sort through this stuff, but you can also find some real gold if you sift it well enough.
3) On the right hand side, the sheet has the mother and a bunch of half siblings. The very first thing i look for is to see if there are any full siblings. Full siblings I look really closely at. Take into consideration what age they made their debut, what was the nature of their development, what were preferred surfaces, distances. Dealing with half siblings, you need to take into consideration between the two different stallions and their tendencies. I also pay close attention to sex....sisters can slightly be more like sisters and brothers slightly more like brothers.
4) the TGI (below the firsters/seconders info on the left hand side of the sheet (this is the bottom left corner)) has the accumulated average figures of the sire\'s progeny. Age is important. Some sires 2yo are really slow and smartly develop in time. Others start off pretty good and do not have the same sharp improvement. Rememebr, the TGI is built up over large sample sizes, so small differences can be meaningful. Also, check distance and surface indexes, and fillies versus colts.
5) Look at auction history (bottom of 2yo column on sheet)...what ages did the horse change hands? What sales? What prices? Also, take into consideration economic situation....in late 2008 and 2009, auctions were really hit badly by economic dislocations....take things like that in to consideration when evaluating prices.
6) Dont only look at the sheet. You need to follow the tote board carefully and be able to spot action that indicates unexpectedly strong following. You also need to assess workouts as best you can....before you look at any particular work outs.....get information on as many workouts as you can...go back to the horse\'s start at the track.....see how frequent the works were, were there small or big breaks?, where were the work outs? Some first timers have been very well traveled before they ever get into a starting gate. After you get a sense of the texture of the firster\'s track history, then you need to look at individual workouts and see if you can glean something. Unfortunately, at a lot of tracks, the published workouts are a bunch of malarkey, so you need to take what you read with a grain of salt. However, you can see some things from changing distances, speeds, use of gate, handily or breezing. Also, there is sometimes press about first timers. Do not be shy to glean what you can from the press. Also, consider whether or not the horse is a home bred. If it is a home bred, the trainer did not get to pick out the horse and has to train it no matter what. There is little pressure to put out right away. IF the trainer picked out the horse from a sale, then the trainer will be under pressure to produce.
7) Think carefully about whether or not to hit the all button in a race with a lot of firsters. A lot of the decision will depend on whether your bet is horizontal or vertical....what is the story on your keys......but, I try not to let a piece of genius handicapping fall apart because i tried to save a dollar or two throwing out \'hopeless bum\' first timers in some other part of the ticket. I am more inclined to allow the insanity-trigger-bad-beat show up by throwing out a proven hopeless bum than by throwing out a horse I do not know anything about.
It was the 4th at DMR.
And usually when we\'re talking maidens and first-time stats we\'re talking about the sires\' and/or trainers\' respective success with first-out runners. Sawyer\'s Hill is by Spring At Last who gets 16% winners first out and Mulhall the trainer while 7% w/1st out 2yo MSW had 2.70 ROI in this spot which means she can put them over every once in a while. And this one did attract notice. Karma King by 12% and 18% first out sire and trainer had good stats in both categories. Snuggley Bear is a 17% first out sire. All three had factors which implied precocity of some sort. And these are the factors you look at when you have no figures to guide you. It\'s an educated guess. They ran 3,1,4 respectively. And the horse that finished second, Final Step, was a $135K 2yo purchase which means he ran fast at the sales to impress potential buyers. He had to be in good shape to do that although it wasn\'t race distance.
The 1st out sire stats are listed in the sire profile. Line 13. 1st out trainer stats are shown the trainer profiles. They\'re categories.
You can also look at sibling data, that is, the dam\'s brothers and sisters and see how they did early on. They\'re listed on the right side of the sheet.
Given the above I suggest you also look at the in-the-money stats for 1st out starters, both for trainers and sires. Well meant horses can always get beat but they\'re likely to end up in the money. A trainer or sire that gets lots of itm 1st out finishers yet an average amount, 10-13%, winners is one to keep an eye on. They\'re trying and they may be forgotten on the board because they\'re not known as \"1st out trainers\".
I trust others will have more to add. Experience will give you a feel for 1st out sires and trainers.