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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jimbo66 on August 24, 2013, 03:18:19 PM

Title: Smith - awful today
Post by: jimbo66 on August 24, 2013, 03:18:19 PM
Lets see what happens tomorrow with royal delta, but several trainers probably wished smith stayed out west today

On a speed favoring, inside track, he blows break and winds up across the crown on the turn with my happy face

Palace malice has great tactical speed and somehow winds up in 8th place at the half.   Would have laid 100-1 on that happening

Then less egregious, but also not smart, with the turf horse with the best early speed, he decides to let laughing go almost 24 to the quarter on a speed favoring turf course.  In exchange for a 2 wide trip, losing by a neck.

Awful awful performance by a hall of famer
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: P-Dub on August 24, 2013, 04:08:19 PM
At what point do we blame the horse for not breaking sharply?

Not being a Smith apologist, we could be talking about any jockey.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: jimbo66 on August 24, 2013, 07:30:57 PM
U think the break caused Mikey to take the 10 path with my happy face?

And \"yes\", I do believe the jockey has responsibility for getting a horse to break sharp.  I have this argument regularly with another poster on this board

Stumbles can\'t be helped, but hustling a speed horse out of the gate is part of the jockeys job.   Otherwise why would we say things like \"PVal is one of the best gate/speed jockeys ever\".  Because it is part of the role

P-dub, u know I like Smith.  But he was awful today.  If I knew and could ask him, he seems like the kind of guy who would agree and not make excuses
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: P-Dub on August 24, 2013, 08:08:19 PM
He usually gets horses to break sharply if thats their game.

I don\'t recall the break on HF, but PM broke sluggishly. I was surprised too.

I guess my point is that we expect jockeys to get their horses to break sharply when that is their game, but if the horse doesn\'t we never blame the horse.  They are flesh and blood, sometimes they don\'t do what they\'re expected to do either.

Not absolving Smith, just saying it isn\'t always the jockey.

And yes, I know you aren\'t one of the \"wide Mike\" lunatics.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: bellsbendboy on August 25, 2013, 06:16:29 AM
I do not quite agree Paul.  This is either a case of \"Smith bashing\" or one of the more frivolous posts of the meet. bbb
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: cubfan0316 on August 25, 2013, 06:17:27 AM
jockeys = idiots
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 25, 2013, 06:23:45 AM
\"jockeys = idiots\"

Cub,


agree, they never use the gas pedal, power steering and brakes that come with every horse!

Smith stated PM had \"no back legs\" when the latch sprung and PM did not launch. He\'s an idiot, should have just stepped on the gas pedal.


Mike
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: cubfan0316 on August 25, 2013, 07:50:03 AM
either there pretty stupid or good actors. you choose......
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 25, 2013, 07:57:31 AM
Cub,

Time to time they all give a bad ride, use poor judgement.When a horse just does something over which a jockey has no control, another story.


Mike
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Tavasco on August 25, 2013, 10:20:52 AM
That\'s a grin.

Having Donna Barton Brothers interview the Jocks who don\'t speak much English was awkward!

Plus its frustrating to see PM running faster than the rest at the Finish. Just seems Smith had a Zenyatta moment.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: bstaubs22 on August 25, 2013, 10:46:08 AM
Word from a certain clocker who has been based in NY all summer was tha Palace was battling a foot bruise sustained during training on Thursday.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: P-Dub on August 25, 2013, 10:58:35 AM
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"jockeys = idiots\"
>
> Cub,
>
>
> agree, they never use the gas pedal, power
> steering and brakes that come with every horse!
>
> Smith stated PM had \"no back legs\" when the latch
> sprung and PM did not launch. He\'s an idiot,
> should have just stepped on the gas pedal.
>
>
> Mike

So this comment...\"They are flesh and blood, sometimes they don\'t do what they\'re expected to do either.\"....may have something to do with that.

Jockey = Idiot, huh Cub??

That equation can be modified several different ways. Since you\'re so smart, I\'m sure you can figure it out.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: richiebee on August 25, 2013, 11:16:16 AM
Re: Palace Malice hoof bruise--


If that had been the case, I would imagine that PM would have been spending a
lot of time with his hoof soaking, or being iced, or maybe the farrier would
have been called in for a look.

Under NYRA\'s Travers testing/surveillance protocol, would we as horseplayers
have access to this information in real time? Or not until after the race was
run?

Not doing much good for me finding out after the race.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 25, 2013, 11:31:56 AM
You always hear stuff like this after, if you hear it before, it would also include tons of horses that WIN. Easy to bat 1000% after the wire.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: bstaubs22 on August 25, 2013, 11:51:22 AM
The information was given out on the workout report Saturday morning BEFORE the race had been run.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 25, 2013, 01:43:54 PM
Not saying it wasn\'t posted pre race , but the rehash of same is usually reserved for when it\'s right.

 If the horse won, no one would post that there was a knock that didn\'t pan out.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: PapaChach on August 25, 2013, 08:31:00 PM
...And I don\'t know about you, but I love when Einsteins who don\'t know the difference between their, they\'re, and there deign to comment on the intelligence of others...
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 26, 2013, 02:26:01 PM
Someone posted on twitter in ADVANCE that Go Unbridled was reported  as \'not working well\'

 I\'ll assume one of the  \'clocker reports\' had this.

 Winner.

 Somehow, info posted in advance never holds up as well as the the other kind.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 26, 2013, 02:51:08 PM
Mike Welch work report had winner working very poorly!
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 26, 2013, 03:17:24 PM
Yeah, no knock on Mike, who I\'m sure tries and does a decent job.  This was apropos my comment  that \"Ex post facto\" information has to be take with a large grain of salt, because the losers are never/rarely  mentioned.

 The mare acted up badly last out, propped, never ran a step.  You\'d have to figure H.A.J. was desperate just to run something for her to be not right.

 2 7F works for the race, like the good old days.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: TGJB on August 26, 2013, 03:19:45 PM
Overall he\'s been pretty good. He had the bomb that won the last Sunday working better than anyone else in the field.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 26, 2013, 03:35:50 PM
Tough to get a handle on a new circuit.Welch did main, Vesce Oklahoma. Overall worth $1 a day even though they missed a ton of works.They had a few nice winners and did ok with firsters.

Jimbo don\'t wanna hear it,wants his $38.95 back!!
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: TGJB on August 26, 2013, 03:48:00 PM
It\'s getting better, if they go year round it should be a very worthwhile product.

Meanwhile, a) there is no way the Travers was faster than the Pac Classic, but b) it did not come up slow compared to the one turn races nearest to it, late in the card. Early part of the card, before 4 straight grass races, was a different story.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 26, 2013, 03:57:13 PM
Hard to sell fast when you look at the overall lack of splits anywhere in the whole race.Not the first time the Travers raw has been incongruous with the other dirt races at one turn.

The adjusted pace figures for the Kings Bishop off the charts fast so can\'t reconcile track slowing later.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: TGJB on August 26, 2013, 04:09:43 PM
It didn\'t come up fast, actually came up just as you would think it would with the two from the Jim Dandy finishing close together again. Point is it didn\'t come up slow compared to the sprints late in the day-- if you made the Travers slower and tied it to the sprints you would be giving out some awful figures in the Test and Kings Bishop. This is also one of those situations which might look different to those making figures without ground loss-- big fields and some wide trips throughout the day.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 26, 2013, 04:20:19 PM
While you do not consider pace in the fig,the Test and KB came up much faster than the earlier 7f races,adjusted for pace. Think the extreme early splits in the Test and KB led to slower than normal final raw with the front gasping and the closers hustled more than they wanted early to stay in touch.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Dana666 on August 27, 2013, 06:37:29 AM
Smith\'s style hasn\'t changed much over the years. Generally he grabs everything and goes wide to avoid trouble. Has he ever sent a horse inside? Yeah, once in a while but that\'s not his game. His best scenario is to ride Royal Delta or Zenyatta in a 5 horse field and show off his skills. He needs that type of situation every race. He pulls up a lot of horses too. Maybe that\'s his intuition; he just \"feels\" something\'s wrong and stops riding. Maybe he\'s scared to death. His instincts have kept him in the game and at the top level all these years, so it\'s hard to argue. I can\'t address the fear issue b/c I don\'t put my life on the line everyday to do my job. The ride on Happy Face was just terrible. Here you have a horse all set to perform at her best on the big stage, and he completely wastes all that preparation and perfect placement by the owner and trainer. He goes wide and against the bias coming from last with a horse that should have been right up on the pace. I guarantee you Happy Face ran a huge new top, but they don\'t pay off for numbers, just who runs first under the wire. If I got paid for every horse I bet who ran the fastest number, I\'d be wealthy! Nothing to do. Smith has great hands and a good clock in his head, so you get the pluses and minuses when you ride him or bet on him. The best strategy is just play him on long shots and toss him on favorites. This year you\'d have made out great, esp. in Graded Stakes races. I\'m sure he\'ll bring in a 20-1 shot in a Breeder\'s Cup race.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: TGJB on August 27, 2013, 07:00:04 AM
Youknowwho-- shock me. Don\'t take the bait.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 27, 2013, 07:14:19 AM
Smith a bum, getting outquicked from the gate by both the 9 and 7 in Test.......psst take a look at the head on and tell me at what point he could have angled over(not there). Happy Face under a ride most of the way with modest response,last 1/8th in a pedestrian 13.38, barely getting by a couple of slugettes in the last 1/16th.Gigantic pace in front of her and very slow last part should have equaled a win, notwithstanding trip.

Equal trips with the winner, Happy dont win one out of ten.They will meet again.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: jimbo66 on August 27, 2013, 07:51:51 AM
Miff,

Smith was awful.  Outquicked by 9 and 7 is one thing, but he got out last in the race.  You have the PPs.  How does this horse get out last?  ARe we going to say the \"ground disappeared under the horse\'s back legs\" like Palace Malice?  That was a brilliant statement by Smith.  \"Jockey-speak\" after a race, much like \"trainer-speak\" before a race, useless.  

You will get chances to bet the winner back.  Very common IMO.  The horse he beat a head is a hard trying, mildly talented stakes runner.  The winner was on the lead at a time during the day when speed was very good.  (not sure that was the case later in the card, but perhaps>

Smith took two horses with tactical speed and got them out last and next to last, in major stakes races.  

Even if we give Smith the \"horse lost his back legs excuse\" on Palace Malice, where is the clock in his head when they go 24 and 48.  He needs to move sooner when he feels that slow pace, not wait and wait and wait.

Watch Obviously blow the start on Sunday.  Talamo, didn\'t sit back in last, he went forward despite losing 2 lengths at the break.  He didn\'t want to compromise the horse\'s best asset.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 27, 2013, 07:56:25 AM
Jim,

Dont know what your looking at, horses break, jockeys do not, enough.

Mike
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: P-Dub on August 27, 2013, 12:30:02 PM
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Youknowwho-- shock me. Don\'t take the bait.

I\'m outsourcing.

My boy Miff is handling all such matters on this thread.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 27, 2013, 02:31:09 PM
At least they reviewed it!!


Game on Dude's published time for the 1 1/4-mile event was 2:00.69, a slow performance which, if taken at face value, would have produced an implausibly low speed figure for the fastest horse in America this season.  The Trakus timing system at Del Mar cast doubt on the "official" time by recording a final time of 1:59.26.

Randy Moss, a member of the Beyer Speed Figure team and the creator of the Moss Pace Figures did a frame-by-frame analysis comparing Sunday's Pacific Classic with the 2012 race.  He concluded that Game on Dude ran 0.20 seconds slower than Dullahan did last year, making his final time 1:59.74 seconds.  That time is the basis for Game on Dude's figure of 113.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: Dana666 on August 27, 2013, 03:49:44 PM
Exactly why I don\'t post much here anymore. The time it takes to respond to completely inaccurate and absurd posts, like this one, is just not worth it. Just once I\'d like to see a relevant, intelligent discussion, but I digress.

Let\'s examine the statement: \"Equal trips with the winner, Happy dont win one out of ten.They will meet again.\"

At the first quarter, Happy was 7th, 7 lengths back and 4 wide; turning for home 7 wide. The two fillies that finished ahead of her were never farther than 2 lengths off the lead and never more than 2-3 wide at any point, on a speed favoring, inside favoring surface, they ran the last eighth in 13 and change, Happy ran it in just under 12! Seriously, you view those performances as equal???

Please tell me you don\'t make Thorograph numbers!
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: miff on August 27, 2013, 04:20:48 PM
Yeah, we\'ll just ignore one horse was head to head in 44.4 while the other was doing nothing!
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: bellsbendboy on August 27, 2013, 05:24:35 PM
Dana,  Mike this is,  or could be,  a worthwhile handicapping discussion where differing opinion is an integral part of the sport.  Neither of you are right or wrong; at least at this point.

My involvement was due to the unwarranted jockey bashing. FWIW, I thought Mikey\'s ride on Pianist was flawless, on some of his other trips they were eventful; thru no fault of his.

bbb
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: jimbo66 on August 27, 2013, 07:05:08 PM
Thanks for clarifying your involvment BBB.  

Hear I had thought you were just being an ass with a wrong opinion.
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: cubfan0316 on August 29, 2013, 11:17:32 AM
p-dub, if you don\'t agree, think of it this way. if you ran 100 yards 8 times a day, would you know when your going faster or slower than normal after say, 50 yards? if these guys ride so many horses don\'t you think after 3 or 4 furlongs they wqould know if the pace is hot or not?
Title: Re: Smith - awful today
Post by: P-Dub on August 29, 2013, 01:55:34 PM
The dynamics of a horse race are far different than running 100 yds in a straight line.  I\'m not going to spend another 10 posts going back and forth as to why.

This thread has gone on long enough. More racing this weekend.

Just let it go.