Since I know there will be no shortage of ppl ready to jump on him when he loses tomorrow, just wanted to provide some perspective ahead of time.
He\'s going to bounce tomorrow.
Could he bounce and still win? Perhaps, but given how things went this spring, I\'m expecting a pretty big bounce. I\'m not sure we will ever know for sure why he was in such (relatively) sorry shape for Derby week, it is exceedingly strange given how far removed he was from his huge figure in Feb. I\'m sure the connex did everything they could to have him primed, but as folks like Covello have shared with us in detail, for whatever reason he was not at all himself for Derby week.
This, to me, is a pretty negative sign if you are expecting him to be a 70s or 80s style horse that can go out and run solid efforts every time, or someone who can run huge races and not react badly to them. To me, it means he is somewhat brittle if they couldn\'t have him in the right place for the biggest race of the year.
Strangely, however, people want to use his Derby performance to evaluate his abilities as a horse. He can\'t get 10 furlongs. He doesn\'t like slop. He can\'t handle pace pressure. Orb is tons better a horse. What sense does any of this make? How can you evaluate someone\'s ability at the bottom of their form cycle rather than at the top?
Now I get it, some people want to use the fact that he had such a wide swinging form cycle as an argument against him being a \"great\" horse. There\'s no denying that he is likely not a super-sturdy horse that is going to give you a top or near-top effort every time out like a Zenyatta. That\'s a fine argument, but 3yr olds able to put out top efforts every time are few and far between since the steroid era ended (Big Brown timeframe). In a two month span, 2 big stakes races are common, but 3 is not something that really happens much anymore for 3yr olds, or older horses for that matter. They all either take breaks or throw in a bad race.
So if Orb finishes ahead of Verrazano, what is the truth? That Orb is a better horse than Verrazano because he beat him the only 2 times they raced? Or that Orb caught Verrazano at the bottom of his form cycle twice while Orb was near his peak each time? Is there anyone out there that thinks Orb would have finished within 8 lengths of Verrazano in the Haskell?
Is the truth that Verrazano can\'t get 10 furlongs (which there is absolutely nothing in the pace figures of every other race other than the Derby to suggest he can\'t) or that the only 2 times he\'s attempted it, he\'s been at the bottom of a form cycle? I\'m sure there will be no shortage of simpletons tweeting after the race that it is too far for him.
If he has multiple failures going forward after some rest, then we can start talking about him being a disappointment. But as far as tomorrow is concerned, this race tells us nothing about Verrazano at all, unless he happens to win. There are still plenty of opportunities for something like a Ghostzapper-like performance in the BC classic to further demonstrate the tremendous ability he has.
So I hope all the haters enjoy getting their shots in after the race tomorrow, but unfortunately for them, failure in this race wont mean failure for the year or that he isn\'t a tremendously talented horse. It just means he isn\'t superman and bounces off big efforts, like horses not on steroids are supposed to. Good luck to all tomorrow.
You sound like Skip Bayless.
Lay out every reason why your horse/team/player won\'t succeed, then tell everyone I told you so when they win.
BTW, nobody says he doesn\'t have talent. You\'re on a crusade to defend this horse, when the vast majority of this board agrees he is a really good horse.
why is a win by verrazano tomorrow an indication that he\'s better than orb, but a win by orb is just a lucky break because verrazano is at the bottom of his cycle?
Orb is not at the top of a cycle but starting a new cycle. He will improve next out, most likely the Jockey Club Gold Cup and will peak again at Breeder\'s Cup. Wether he wins any, all or none of the 3 is debatable. He has put on nearly 100 lbs post Belmont and needs a tightener to be at is best. He can attend slower paces when he is fitter and the fact that he dropped back again in the 2nd and 3rd legs even against slow paces indicated he had peaked and lost his edge. Only 3 horses since 1942 have won the Derby/Travers double. Only 1 horse has won the Belmont/Jim Dandy/Travers triple but Palace Malice should hold his form. 12 Jim Dandy winners have taken down the Travers since 1992. I would be nervous keying Verrazano who reminds me a lot of Quality Road. Pace should be honest and give the closers something to run at, should be interesting.
Romansh has me interested at 12-1 ML.
big18741 Wrote:
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> Romansh has me interested at 12-1 ML.
If you like him you have to also like his stablemate Tranparent at 10/1 who beat him by 2 last time.
Sort of but I think Romansh has more room to improve going into his 5th start and you would think the post positions will make a difference.
Rider switch could be a positive(although I like Junior)and I\'m hoping he gets away from the gate clean this time.
Absolutely, Transparent seems to be learning how to rate and race. I watched replays of all of this ones previous races. Trainer has changed his running style from E to P, with the last couple of efforts visually impressive. I\'m thinking straight exacta Palace Malice over Transparent.
Similarly, a running style change for Moreno (other than his 1st race when he was so eager) Moreno was racing as a closer until his last few when he started being the pace setter and got good. His Jim Dandy was solid until very late. He\'s still maturing Next Year for him.
I saw the Jim Dandy as a stronger race than the Haskell. Consequently Palice Malice\'s performance was a stand out. I see Curlins influence separates PM from the fragile brilliant ones.
But it\'s about making money, so 2/1 is not acceptable when it comes with doubts I\'d like him (V) in the Kings Bishop, Orbs late running style and pencil neck Jockey are strikes against (he could get dq\'d). None of the top three warrant a win bet IMO so a stab using Transparent under seems worthwhile.
Guess it will have to be in the Dirt Mile TreadHead to see his \"greatness.\" Pletcher doesn\'t think he can get the 1 1/4 distance now too?? Or just too many horses to keep apart for the Classic.
But you get your wish hopefully with the plan below: No excuses this time about form regression or bounces at Santa Anita.
When he doesn\'t hit the board again on the \"big stage,\" don\'t be surprised.
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Verrazano may train up to Breeders\' Cup
Though he said it's not etched in stone, trainer Todd Pletcher is leaning toward training Verrazano up to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita on Nov. 2.
Verrazano has Grade 1 wins in the Wood Memorial and Haskell Invitational at 1 1/8 miles this year, but he most recently finished seventh as the favorite in the $1 million Travers on Aug. 24. Pletcher believes that in the Travers, Verrazano bounced, or regressed, from his career-best performance in the Haskell, which is why he is leery of running him in a race five weeks out from the Breeders' Cup.
"Just want to avoid a situation like we just did, where he runs great five weeks out, then doesn't run quite as good the next time," Pletcher said. "I think he's proven he can run well fresh, and we've had some luck training horses that way."
Are there other older horses in training capable of running a -4 at a mile? There might be one or two, but there certainly aren\'t many. Expecting him to not be competitive there is downright foolish, unless you are blinded by Pletcher hate, which many bad-mouthing this horse are.
I think they are giving up on 10F too easily. They caught it at the 2 worst possible times in his form cycle so far. But the other thing that is clear is that you can\'t race this horse into shape and he has huge form swings, so it\'s not like you can try it out in a couple of prep races and then expect him to be at his best for the BC, so I guess this move makes sense.
On his best day he wasn\'t gonna get ten furlongs against top company if you go by pedigree.
More than Ready on top and his half brother El Padrino(same mother but with Pulpit on top) seemed to be at his limits going nine furlongs.
Seems like a no brainer running him fresh and cutting back in distance.
One turn Cigar Mile might be the best situation for him.