I think there are some interesting plays on today\'s card. At the risk of looking foolish if they don\'t fire, here are some opinions:
3rd: I\'ll start off with the obvious: # 3 Pure Sensation-Ran within a length of Stakes winning Corfu in debut, only another future stakes winner can beat him. I\'ll use him to start P3s & 4s that could end with a bang.
4th: No real opinion, but to keep those picks alive I\'ll use 1,6,7,8
5th #5 Mr. Starr\'s Report (15/1 ML) comes in 2nd off almost a year\'s layoff for Jack Fisher. His form was darkened against $14k claimers in his 1st race back tightner at Colonial, now he comes here and if he\'s ready to fire his 2012 sheet #s he beats this field.
6th: #8 Jumpinofftheedge is 20/1 ML and broke his maiden 1st out sprinting getting a figure that puts him in the mix. then had a troubled trip at a mile. Back to sprint and had a good work 2 weeks ago. I don\'t know if he can beat both the 1 & 5, but if either one bounces, he should be in the exacta.
7th: One of the 2 Linda Rice FTSs, #5 May Shares is light on turf breeding stats & first time out stats but has been working out great on the turf & his sire\'s FTS have improved this year (there was a win this week that I don\'t think made the TG stats). They paid $125K for him & BRIS lists his sire\'s stud fee at $3,000, so they must have seen something special at the 2yo sale. Sneaky turf breeding on a sire who is only getting 6% turf winners & is 0 for 24 first turf as TGI shows a 16.25 for turf which is his best TGI number by almost 4 points over dirt (20), Synth (23) & Off (20.25). Working great on turf. Another $125k purchase is AE #9 Aesthetique. His breeding stats are better than #5, but his barn has been ice cold this year (1 for 52 in 2013)-it could be heating up with 3 2nds and a 3rd in 6 starts this meet. If only one of these goes I\'ll single her, otherwise I\'ll box & play both.
8th: No opinion using 2,6,8 & 10 in picks.
9th: BEST BET: #3 Slumber won a similar race off a long layoff last year & then disappeared until now. Working great for return.
10th: #1A Farhaan gets lasix for his American debut for McLaughlin, who is deadly first time lasix. Was working well at Keeneland & shipped here for a decent dirt work before racing on turf. Should be ready & better than the Americans and other Euro imports here. It\'s wide open if he scratches instead of his entrymate.
11th: An impossible race, but since I\'m playing the P6, I\'ll go 6 deep with 1,4,6,7,8 &9.
Good luck to all on what looks like a very interesting Thursday card.
Toppled
Nice pick on the 5th race!
Thanks. I\'ve been doing good without the sheets (my specialty is maiden races where the sheets aren\'t as valuable), but I really liked the card & I wanted to see if I missed anything. So after I finished all my handicapping, I bought today\'s Thoro-Graphs & I realized I overlooked Mr. Starr\'s Report in my original handicapping. After I saw last year\'s numbers, and saw he\'d be on or near the lead in my pace handicapping, I figured Fisher used his last as a tightener & if he ran to last years #s, he\'d win.
Thank you for posting your analysis. You convinced me to play the late pick 4 to some degree of success. Based on your prognostication, I would gather that you fared well yesterday. Feel free to do that again. :-)
I\'m glad I was able to help, a lot of times I\'ll go belly up when I feel as good about a day as I did yesterday but a lot clicked right for me yesterday.
I wasn\'t alone on the 5th, I just went to the Redboard Room & saw they had Mr. Starr\'s Report as a best bet-when I saw the sheet I figured the analysis had to have him and they did.