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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Lost Cause on July 21, 2013, 05:34:47 PM

Title: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: Lost Cause on July 21, 2013, 05:34:47 PM
I love the place because I can lose $1,500 in a weekend and feel like I \'m going to get them at some point because the payoffs are unreal.  Nose bobs and headbobs away from making 5 times that amount..

I hate the place because I can lose $1,500 in a weekend and feel like I \'m going to get them at some point because the payoffs are unreal.  Nose bobs and headbobs away from making 5 times that amount..

Dangerous places..
Title: Re: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: Boscar Obarra on July 21, 2013, 06:47:00 PM
You know, I wonder how much different it really is from missing a lottery payoff by one digit. It looks different to the naked eye, but statistically?

 Chime right in.
Title: Re: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: Fairmount1 on July 21, 2013, 08:30:13 PM
Both had very exciting weekends with obvious favorites, solid places to wager, and longshots that I\'m still trying to decipher.  I hope the close, exciting finishes continue.  I love Keeneland, Derby weekend, and Breeders Cup.  But the duel premium meets are every bit as exciting with opportunities at every turn of the page.  

19 of 31 races at Saratoga paid 10 bucks or higher, favs won at a rate lower than the typical 1/3.

Pletcher horses seemed very logical that won.  Good to see a former assistant of his winning, Dilger mostly b/c I enjoyed seeing Pletcher lose both 2yo stakes.  Chad Brown horses overbet so far it seems.  Baffert on fire at Del Mar and paying decent.  NY Bred races are on the improve if today\'s 2yo maiden race is any indication.  And many outfits were waiting to fire some big bullets off some layoffs.  Speaking of which, I am dying to know if JCovello was in on the know with Joy Seeker who as noted by Crist and TVG Carothers was just hammmered in the win pool and only the win pool.    

Saratoga dirt fair all three days.  Del Mar had moments of speed/inside bias it seemed.  Saratoga turf favored front runners except when pace was pretty quick.  Del Mar turf was fair I thought.  

Others thoughts on trends or things to watch?  And did Zito really win a turf race at Saratoga???
Title: Re: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: Boscar Obarra on July 21, 2013, 09:15:14 PM
JS was hammered indeed, but actually closed only slightly overlaid in the exacta. Was very good value in the dd coming into the race.

 Maggie had some kind words, which probably moved a few $ .
Title: Re: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: Boscar Obarra on July 21, 2013, 09:17:42 PM
Speaking of longshots, I\'m too old and feeble to have my wits about me by the 10th, but isn\'t that kind of horse what you\'re supposed to be looking for at the spaaa?
Title: Re: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: P-Dub on July 21, 2013, 11:18:18 PM
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Speaking of longshots, I\'m too old and feeble to
> have my wits about me by the 10th, but isn\'t that
> kind of horse what you\'re supposed to be looking
> for at the spaaa?

3rd career start, 1st time lasix.  Also a turf to dirt surface switch which the trainer has had success with.
Title: Re: Why I love and hate Sar and Del Mar...
Post by: Tavasco on July 21, 2013, 11:24:27 PM
This guy Rudolpho was certainly worth a stab just based on his ROI and the horse\'s price!

He must be doing something right or wrong.

I need an ap that calls me whenever a shipper goes over 40/1.