Interested to hear folks thoughts about race 7 today at Sar. The Jacobson fav seems beatable and is not fastest, even when factoring in the weight advantage. The second choice on the ML is also vulnerable with that big six point new top in last. The trainer has been on fire the last 90 days, but this is not churchill.
At 12-1 Dawley is looking mighty good. Consistently runs that 2 3/4, which is fast enough to win this. Seems to be a 7F specialist. I\'ve observed more than a number of times horses running the same number over several months all of a sudden break through and run a new top. The most memorable for me being Pleasant Home in the BC Distaff back in 05 for Shug. Was running a 1 all year and then jumps up and beats Ashado and Society Selection. Add in Dawley\'s stalking running style from an outside post, along with the hoping for double digit odds and I\'ll take a horse like Dawley eery time.
Googleado, although I don\'t like the inside post, may set the pace according to the race shape, is also intriguing. Very lightly raced with only a 3 point new top in last, with plenty of time to recover since the top. Who\'s to say this one does not have another forward move or a pair-up in him? Like Dawley I\'m hoping the ML is accurate. Depending on what I see in the paddock I\'ll play Dawley to win with a saver place wager, and an exacta box with Googleado. And maybe the latter to win also if the price is anything over the ML.
Best of luck to all today and this weekend.
Phil
I froze a gallon of water that will thaw out during the day. Heading up pretty early (from Albany burbs) to get a good parking space.
I\'m hoping my bomb of the day is as hot as the weather: In the 7th race I like 20-1 ML Sayler\'s Creek. Sheet: Last year at Churchill he broke his maiden running a 6.5 & with Bernstein\'s 2-3 age improvement on TGI could project to a 3, which at the weights puts him right there. Trainer Gerry Carwood looks obscure on the racing form, but Thoro-Graph trainer stats show him 36% (4/11) first time after trainer change (DRF Formulator has him 3/11) & also a healthy 31% blinkers on. The negative is the 0/7 90+ day layoff.
Non sheet: Great workout on 7/8 on the track. 59 3/5 per DRF PPs, even better DRF clocker\'s report 12.40, 35, 46, out in 58.80. His lone win was a key race when he broke his maiden beating Derby place horse Golden Soul.
I\'m playing him in exacta boxes with 1,5,6 & throwing in 6-7 DDs using 2,3 & saving with 7 & 9 in the 6th. I\'m also looking at him at least hitting the board for my grand slams.
Upper Nile Wrote:
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> Interested to hear folks thoughts about race 7
> today at Sar.
> At 12-1 Dawley is looking mighty good.
> Consistently runs that 2 3/4, which is fast enough
> to win this.
Just a heads up: might be a good idea to lay off any
RudyRod runners for now. Not only was he ice cold the
last half of Belmont, he\'s on the schneid at Monmouth,
too. Something\'s wrong.
Also, don\'t be too quick to dismiss Strike One, who was
2nd to a repeater that took down a G3 at Calder next out.
Tough race for N1X! Stay away, rain.
All you need to know about this race and the Spa meet is:
A Bill Mott trained, Johnny V. ridden horse won and paid $24.80, A JJ Castellano ridden horse was second and the exacta paid $322.00; Joel Rosario was 4th for a 30K super. 3 of the top 5 jocks in the country and a Hall of Fame trainer produce a 30K super. There \"ain\'t\" no place else in the world this could happen.
I did not end up attending live today; at the bewitching hour of 11:00 AM I got some sense and went to a very crowded but very air conditioned Tele Theater. I\'m also not attending tomorrow and missing my first Saturday seminar in 6 years. The Saturday card was awesome but will be wrecked by 90 plus degrees, wicked humidity and certain severe T-Storms throughout the afternoon. Sunday, Monday and the rest of week 2 call for a return to low 80\'s and a falling dew point.
It is beyond miserable outside; I must be getting old!!!!
Good luck,
Frank D.
Find yourself a hayloft and feel young again!!