Well, not exactly \"new\"...but definitely IMPROVED.
Trainer J. Willard Thompson is a career 12% trainer, and
prior to 2013, he hasn\'t been above 10% going back to 2002,
per Equibase.
This year, he already has 10 wins out of 44 starts, matching
his win total for sum of the last TWO years. That\'s about 23%.
Better horses? Better hay?
Better keep an eye on him. He\'s at Monmouth at the moment.
This is interesting because his son Glenn Thompson is on a real crusade to get rid of drugs in racing and as a trainer, is in the process of weaning his horses off of most drugs. His horses, Glenn\'s, have had better results over the past few months without drugs so not sure what to make of his dad\'s resurgence.
michael
I can\'t say what J. Willard is doing, but he is 78. That doesn\'t absolve him of suspicious behavior, but it does seem strange that he\'d be winning at a low percentage for many years (and presumably clean) and then suddenly, nearing 80, decide to start juicing his horses. Just saying.
why are you besmirching this mans reputation? what did he do to you? maybe he caught some luck lately. life time average of 12%, would mean some years it\'s 6% and other years its 20%. arrrgggg!!!!!
barn rabbit Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> why are you besmirching this mans reputation?
> what did he do to you? maybe he caught some luck
> lately. life time average of 12%, would mean some
> years it\'s 6% and other years its 20%.
> arrrgggg!!!!!
I did no such thing.
I noticed that a fellow that has had a marginal record
for the last 10 years -- and frankly, TERRIBLE the last
2 years -- is suddenly winning at a much higher rate, and
I suggested he bears watching.
That\'s it -- the rest is in YOUR head, it seems.
My suggestion for you: lay off the Red Bull. You are way
too excitable.
my bad. pass the valium please.
That guy trained for me a lifetime ago, and it\'s hard to believe. But he has three in at Mth today alone that ran huge new tops recently, two in the same race.
Thompson had two starters yesterday, with one winner and
the other a troubled 4th.
The winner, Pinot Grigio, battled most of the way before
drawing off by 5 lengths. He paid a smart $11.40.
Thompson has two in today at Monmouth, in races 4 and 9;
the horse in the latter race has pretty nice turf breeding
and is a decent play in spite of two poor turf attempts
last fall.
(When a trainer starts winning, don\'t overthink it; get on
the train!)
I have owned horses trained by Willard for 15 years and can tell you much of this hot streak has explanations. First of all, Willard made a conscious decision many years ago to only train for people he likes who pay their bills on time. I know most of these owners and we mostly have modest bankrolls and modest horses. Tough to win above 5% like that, especially in years past when fields were bigger and consistently better. Much of the success is simply his horses fit these smaller, weaker fields a lot better.
My filly, Morning Miracle, is a much better than average Jersey bred and a half to my stakes placed Porcini Prince. She is carbon copy of him so when she blitzed a Maiden 50k field first time out none of us were surprised. She was simply much better than that group.
My gelding, Enoki Chief, a full brother to MM, is not as talented, but tries hard. He had several solid races in a row at 2, then after freshening several more at 3, before it caught up with him. He desperately needed a rest when he got claimed and yet ran 4 more times including a return to his prior top of 11. After winning $7,000 in 2013 NHC I called trainer Abrams from Vegas airport and bought him back. Gave him two months off and he got happy and healthy and filled out. He ran new top beating a weak field easily which I attribute to a full gas tank and more mature horse....essentially just good horsemanship, nothing sinister or illegal. If very tired horse equaled prior top, certainly a 3 point new top under these conditions should surprise anyone.
What a refreshing post. I bet I speak for others besides myself. Awesome to hear of real horseman knowing their horses. Bet your boy was so happy to be home. Nice turn out, good food, some love. Horses are people too. (Hah!) I bet he was happy to get back to work because he felt good and so happy.
Awesome, just awesome. Thank you for your post.
I, for one, do feel strongly that there is overuse and sometimes abuse of medications (mostly human medications) applied upon horses racing today. BUT I also believe that real horsemanship can and will ultimately trump drugs. the difficulty there is that real horseman don't have the time tor wherewithall to advocate for themselves, and certainly the horses don't. And so, I for one, also thank this forum for being such an advocate.
I know you understand us 'cappers who, when we watch strange things happen out of the ordinary react with the drug questions. And how cameras and surveillance and testing change the patterns of some trainers. But it is nice to see a trainer's pattern change for real reasons, horsemanship and racing smarts reasons. I think you are absolutely right about how field size, and sometimes field quality, make a difference.
But ain't that another can of beans?...
Happy for you and you boy. Thanks for the post.
Nice 8-1 easy winner at Colonial tonight for Leatherbury. Good point out Rick.
drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice 8-1 easy winner at Colonial tonight for
> Leatherbury. Good point out Rick.
Nice win for the King, I agree, but...that\'s not who I am
bookmarking.
Besides, the mutuel is too small :)
The guy I mentioned is J.W. Thompson, who put over another
jogburger at just over 20-1 today.
Monmouth Park race 11, Harlan\'s Point, won by 7 open lengths
and paid $43.20. Saved my weekend, tyvm.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> drbillym Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Nice 8-1 easy winner at Colonial tonight for
> > Leatherbury. Good point out Rick.
>
> Nice win for the King, I agree, but...that\'s not
> who I am
> bookmarking.
>
> Besides, the mutuel is too small :)
>
> The guy I mentioned is J.W. Thompson, who put over
> another
> jogburger at just over 20-1 today.
>
> Monmouth Park race 11, Harlan\'s Point, won by 7
> open lengths
> and paid $43.20. Saved my weekend, tyvm.
You\'re red boarding. Stop it.
Nope, he flagged the guy as someone to watch in advance.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nope, he flagged the guy as someone to watch in
> advance.
Yes he did.
But I didn\'t see a post saying, play THIS horse. So, that race is a red board.
Everyone knows how I feel about Mike Smith, but talking about a race I hit with him - Princess Of Sylmar - is labeled red boarding.
Seriously?
You\'re grasping at straws.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Seriously?
>
> You\'re grasping at straws.
Yeah seriously.
Nobody said he didn\'t mention this trainer.
I\'ve mentioned countless times Mike Smith is a money rider and takes far too much crap from people.
Is mentioning I had Princess Of Sylmar after the Oaks red boarding, since I mention Smith frequently as a big money rider??
Smith rides a thousand times a year and there\'s no difference between now and 10 years ago, at least none you have pointed out. The point made here-- in advance-- is that Willard, who has been an average trainer historically, is getting jumpups NOW. The two situations are not remorely analogous.
Whenever I see someone of a certain age all of a sudden jumping up like this, the
first thing which comes to my mind is that they are contemplating leaving the
game, or that they have possibly have been given a short time to live based on a
medical condition, and that they are going out with a bang.
That was the first thing that came to my morbid mind when Ramsey\'s horses began
to run out of their skin, that Mr. R had gotten an unfavorable medical diagnosis
and decided to pull all the stops out. Of course, in the interim we have learned
that it is just hay, oats and water (plus shock wave treatment and the hyperbaric
chamber).
To have some more fun with this, I believe that J. Willard Thompson\'s wife was a
world class equestrienne. Long ago it was explained to me where the \"hop\" or
\"juice\" came from -- it trickled down to thoroughbred trainers after being
developed by the show horse people.
Hey I can redboard a conspiracy theory with the best of them...
Any truth to the rumor that after David Jacobson\'s record setting Belmont meet
that no less than 30 trainers have applied for 24 hour surveillance?
its not about his modest 12 per. winning, its the way they win. hes been training for many years so I think hes tried all the different methods. so if it walks like a duck......
cubfan0316 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> its not about his modest 12 per. winning, its the
> way they win.
Not to quibble over numbers, but I probably wouldn\'t have
noticed if Thompson was winning at only 12%; it\'s more
like 23% this year, 12 wins from 52 starts...from a guy
who won 10 races from 300+ starters the last 2 years.
> so if it walks like a duck......
Believe it or not, I don\'t care about the \"why\"; the guy
is winning, at great prices, and I\'m along for the ride.
Thompson has 3 entered on Friday\'s Monmouth card, and I
will simply continue to level bet his horses; there is no
point in adding in my handicapping bias, as my experience
with \"suddenly hot\" trainers is that whatever you think you
are looking for in the pp\'s, it simply isn\'t there.
So don\'t mess it up. Just bet.