Last night in the 4th race at Indiana, Brenda\'s Gold drew the rail with tactical speed coming off of a bounce after pairing. It was a 6pt bounce. Is there a rule of thumb when not to use a horse coming off of a bounce, (I.e. if more than 3 pts avoid)? These were 3 yr old fillies. Based on the field and the draw I thought Brenda\'s Gold was a must use in exactas but ran 5th around the track. The horse that won (Rivertown Belle) was in 67 days after a new top and I thought was an obvious bounce candidate. (Was well bet). Am I using or interpreting the figures incorrectly?
Other than what you\'ve written I do not know anything about the odds and results of the race. I\'ve looked at the sheets and given decent odds Brenda\'s Gold was usable. The immediate pattern, a pair of tops and off race, can result in an improved effort especially in young horses but as Thoro-Pattern notes, it doesn\'t happen as often as we perhaps once thought. We haven\'t articulated rules of thumb in this instance other than to say in general big bounces are worse than small reactions. You always have to consider the context as well--in this case the pair of tops represented 5 points of improvement, quite a bit. Also the rail can be a tough post for a relatively inexperienced horse. Yes, the winner also showed 5 points of improvement but from last year, and the trainer was smart enough to rest her and she hadn\'t really bounced before. Brenda\'s Gold was certainly eligible to improve off her last but was no guarantee to get back to her top. Can\'t say you did anything wrong other than to think Rivertown Belle didn\'t have a shot.
Thanks for the input. In hindsight I should have given more consideration to the rest after the new top.