I will say this much, tomorrow\'s Belmont card is as good as an example as you will ever see on the difference between the tgs and the drf pps
There are a bunch of horses that look hopeless on the pps that are very live on the tgs and then a few that look like locks on the pps that look very vulnerable on the tgs, including the big favorite of husions in the second leg
I don\'t know if I am playing this thing yet but if I do, there are some tough choices to make.
A ticket soley based on tg capping would look dramatically different than one based on the pps. While that is always the case to some degree, it\'s really dramatic tomorrow.
Anyone have any thoughts to share ?
I wish I was as confident as you that Hushion\'s horse is vulnerable. While I very much agree with your assessment on the other races, much to my regret, Hushion\'s horse looks legit to me at least on a fast track. I guess you could look at him as a one figure horse and think he might bounce, but I think a horse like that is more likely to move forward than to bounce....and I think a pair up could easily be good enough to win it. The only challenger looks suspect to me on a fast track and also looks unlikely to move forward. Again, I wish I didn\'t feel the way I do.
Sally\'s Dream and Mess in a Dress are to me very exciting long shots in other legs. In the first leg of the P-6, I think the third choice is much better than the top two choices.
Those are my thoughts so far. Hushion\'s horse poses a real dilemma on how to play this thing. Why do you see his horse as vulnerable?
I do think if they switch surfaces or the track is not fast, it is back to the drawing board.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> I wish I was as confident as you that Hushion\'s
> horse is vulnerable. While I very much agree with
> your assessment on the other races, much to my
> regret, Hushion\'s horse looks legit to me at least
> on a fast track.
The horse took a ton of money on debut, in which he
battled 4-wide and just missed. He caught a pretty
soft field in Wednesday\'s race 5. Vulnerable? How? Why?
IMO, there is a somewhat peculiar mentality here at TG,
from Forum members and Analysis writers alike, that *most
every* favorite can be beat, and is worth taking a shot
against.
I like to beat the chalk as much as the next value-minded
horseplayer, but stubbornly insisting on betting against
even the legit favorites is not only silly, it\'s likely
to be injurious to your bankroll as well.
Crackerjack ran into a very nice horse in Street Swagg for his debut and ran very well. It\'s hard IMHO to go past him in this race agreeing with Rick B. that especially in a horizontal bet you have to take what is given sometimes.
I\'m not much of a pick 6 player preferring the pick 4 by a lot; again IMHO the 6 is a bad bet for a small to moderate player. The guy who invests a couple of hundred bucks is throwing darts, a moderate player who may buy an 800-1000 ticket
has a chance but is really up against the big player who will invest 3-5k in a carryover like this or the syndicates that will plunge 5-10k.
Why on earth they have never made this a 50 cent or a dollar bet is really beyond me; it would increase the pot 2 to 3 times on carryovers for sure.
Cracker is a single on the back end of my 4x3x3x1 pick 4 ticket that I can make for $10 for a $360 investment. WEATHER PERMITTING !!! they should be able to get most of the card in before the daily monsoon hits I hope!
Good luck to all the pick 6 plungers today,
Frank D.
Guys, the husion horse could certainly win but he doesn\'t even have the fastest last race fig. I don\'t think I am recreating the wheel to think a horse that isn\'t the fastest horse in the race going in is vulnerable.
I understand that the other 10 in the race was on a sloppy track and those figures can be tricky but maybe that horse is getting good. Also, yet another horse is only 1 pt slower so its not like he couldn\'t win either
When a horse really looks like a lock, i call it that way ( point of entry on Belmont day and last gunfighter on black eyed Susan day) but a horse that isn\'t even fastest last out can hardly be considered unbeatable.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> Guys, the husion horse could certainly win but he
> doesn\'t even have the fastest last race fig. I
> don\'t think I am recreating the wheel to think a
> horse that isn\'t the fastest horse in the race
> going in is vulnerable.
>
> I understand that the other 10 in the race was on
> a sloppy track and those figures can be tricky but
> maybe that horse is getting good. Also, yet
> another horse is only 1 pt slower so its not like
> he couldn\'t win either
Hi Jim,
Just my opinion, it feels like you are trying to split
the handicapping atom in this race. We both know the
danger of strict adherence to liking \"the fastest number\".
The \"fastest\" horse in the race is a suckalong, IMO:
he has run faster and faster lately (creating what I
call \"the Fake Forging Line\")...but he can\'t pass the
leader. I have learned to dodge these vertical ticket
busters.
The horse with the 11 and change has run that same
race 5 times in a row (also can\'t / won\'t pass anyone
late). What will be different today?
The Hushion horse is only vulnerable if he is sore or
sick, and I don\'t know anything like that. It\'s his
race to lose, and based on how good Hushion is going
right now, I\'d be shocked if his horse doesn\'t run a
couple of TG points faster than his debut. Don\'t think
there is anyone else in here ready to run in the 7 - 8
range.
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I wish I was as confident as you that Hushion\'s
> > horse is vulnerable. While I very much agree
> with
> > your assessment on the other races, much to my
> > regret, Hushion\'s horse looks legit to me at
> least
> > on a fast track.
>
> The horse took a ton of money on debut, in which
> he
> battled 4-wide and just missed. He caught a pretty
>
> soft field in Wednesday\'s race 5. Vulnerable? How?
> Why?
>
> IMO, there is a somewhat peculiar mentality here
> at TG,
> from Forum members and Analysis writers alike,
> that *most
> every* favorite can be beat, and is worth taking a
> shot
> against.
>
> I like to beat the chalk as much as the next
> value-minded
> horseplayer, but stubbornly insisting on betting
> against
> even the legit favorites is not only silly, it\'s
> likely
> to be injurious to your bankroll as well.
Maybe I was not clear. I think Hushion\'s horse is legitimate. I was responding to another guy on here who thought the horse was vulnerable, and I was just saying I wish I could agree with the guy, but I cannot see it. I, too, asked him the same questions you are asking me.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Maybe I was not clear. I think Hushion\'s horse is
> legitimate. I was responding to another guy on
> here who thought the horse was vulnerable, and I
> was just saying I wish I could agree with the guy,
> but I cannot see it. I, too, asked him the same
> questions you are asking me.
In any random discussion in which I am involved, it is
likely to be me who is unclear, so \"you alright\".
I also see the Hushion horse as a legit favorite, so
I either use him on top -- alone -- or pass.
Sure, some will say he can get beat, but anyone that
feels that way can\'t be too comfortable with the other
two \"figure\" horses in the race; both are already showing
signs of becoming \"professional maidens\".
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> covelj70 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Guys, the husion horse could certainly win but
> he
> > doesn\'t even have the fastest last race fig. I
> > don\'t think I am recreating the wheel to think
> a
> > horse that isn\'t the fastest horse in the race
> > going in is vulnerable.
> >
> > I understand that the other 10 in the race was
> on
> > a sloppy track and those figures can be tricky
> but
> > maybe that horse is getting good. Also, yet
> > another horse is only 1 pt slower so its not
> like
> > he couldn\'t win either
>
> Hi Jim,
>
> Just my opinion, it feels like you are trying to
> split
> the handicapping atom in this race. We both know
> the
> danger of strict adherence to liking \"the fastest
> number\".
>
> The \"fastest\" horse in the race is a suckalong,
> IMO:
> he has run faster and faster lately (creating what
> I
> call \"the Fake Forging Line\")...but he can\'t pass
> the
> leader. I have learned to dodge these vertical
> ticket
> busters.
>
> The horse with the 11 and change has run that
> same
> race 5 times in a row (also can\'t / won\'t pass
> anyone
> late). What will be different today?
>
> The Hushion horse is only vulnerable if he is sore
> or
> sick, and I don\'t know anything like that. It\'s
> his
> race to lose, and based on how good Hushion is
> going
> right now, I\'d be shocked if his horse doesn\'t run
> a
> couple of TG points faster than his debut. Don\'t
> think
> there is anyone else in here ready to run in the 7
> - 8
> range.
Not only should Hushion\'s horse run in that range, but the horse is getting 5 pounds from the best last race fig (and the best last race fig horse has a pattern that to me raises a lot of questions).
Although the horse that is stuck at the 11.5 level is also in at 119, even if that horse breaks through the level, it is hard to see a horse with a line like that making a big jump (although I would think differently if those three routes were two turn routes instead of one turn routes -- I.e. if he was turning back from two turns to a one turn sprint, that sort of change can spark a bigger positive reaction).
Race 5
Looking at the replays of their last and relevant races, it appears to me, that the 8, in his only race, stopped running more than he tired. It looked like he had the momentum but didn't or wouldn't pass to the lead when it was before him. Next, looking at his workouts, he was breezed a bullet two weeks after the race, followed by 2 more sharp workouts, the last at 3f. Then he has two more typical Hushion maintenance works. This workout story tells me that what I think I see in the replay is true. And the connections have tried to breeze some spit into the horse with the sharp early works, to reinforce the point of his job to him. Then they give him solid maintenance works. He's had more time to learn and condition, a nice layoff. You cannot count Hushion out in such a situation. That would be foolish. But, will he run with heart today? Will he go wide, will he hang?
There are some others who have recently raced in the mud lately as well. Notably the 4, 6 and 7. Looking at their replays, I can see reasons/excuses? as to why they may have run better. On May 25, the 4 and 6 both outran a 4/5 to place and show behind a closing Clement horse. And they did it on the rail on a muddy track. The 6 has since had a bullet, it is 2nd off the layoff for the the elder Jerkens. It is getting 5lbs though. A lightly raced 4yo. The 7 is cutting back from a mile. I think these three kept running in their last races, though they didn't win, but they they did keep running. The 6 deep on the rail did back up some.
Today is a fast track. And it is an another 1/16 to run. But the 8 sports a classic, very successful Hushion training pattern. That barn can certainly get one ready, and they don't look to waste a race. Nice layoff, nice works. Connections count. For me, the question as to his being beatable would be, does the horse have enough heart to really win? He will certainly be more fit and ready than any of these for sure. That alone might be enough to be the bet. Plus he is 3yo.
Lord knows, there is a deep urge in all of us to beat a 3/5 ml. And it warrants extra time in studying him and his opponents more closely, as we look for betting value. At the same time, it is equally true that a 3/5 winner is always better than a 7-1 loser. In races like these, where there a good number of professional maidens (rats some say), I look for the unproven rat, not the biggest rat. To me that would leave the 6 and the 8.
**A quick aside, the 2 is a very scary horse in here and I mean it literally frightens me. In both previous races the horse backed up like crazy, the jock looking around trying not to stop anyone or worse. He was vanned off the first time. The running line for his most recent race, "Brushed start, outrun" is so far off of what happened. Again, he backed up like a maniac. Either it is a bad coincidence that this happened in both races, or the horse is not mentally prepared for racing, or it has a physical issue. Three different jocks named, all in decending order of success and experience. (And it breezed a bullet 10 days after the last race.) I am afraid to watch.
I see both sides of the argument. This Jones horse could win easy, but do you really want a second time starter who ran \'big\' first time out and now comes back as a second time starter with a \'bad date\'? Where\'s he been?
Jones was entered on the turf on May 25th and was a \'stewards\' scratch (not a vet scr or an off the turf scratch) so, im not sure what that means, just putting it out there.
The thing that i found interesting about Jones in his first start was that he got bet like he was a star in the making.He was bet like he might be \'any kind\'. He\'s also sired by a sire that\'s not one of usual NY suspects, so, he might have a \'breeding edge\' over this group despite being saddled with the \"ny bred\" designation.
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Crackerjack ran into a very nice horse in Street
> Swagg for his debut and ran very well. It\'s hard
> IMHO to go past him in this race agreeing with
> Rick B. that especially in a horizontal bet you
> have to take what is given sometimes.
>
> I\'m not much of a pick 6 player preferring the
> pick 4 by a lot; again IMHO the 6 is a bad bet for
> a small to moderate player. The guy who invests a
> couple of hundred bucks is throwing darts, a
> moderate player who may buy an 800-1000 ticket
> has a chance but is really up against the big
> player who will invest 3-5k in a carryover like
> this or the syndicates that will plunge 5-10k.
>
> Why on earth they have never made this a 50 cent
> or a dollar bet is really beyond me; it would
> increase the pot 2 to 3 times on carryovers for
> sure.
>
> Cracker is a single on the back end of my 4x3x3x1
> pick 4 ticket that I can make for $10 for a $360
> investment. WEATHER PERMITTING !!! they should
> be able to get most of the card in before the
> daily monsoon hits I hope!
>
> Good luck to all the pick 6 plungers today,
>
> Frank D.
Frank,
I couldn\'t agree more. Huge Pick 6 carry overs are great to talk about, but as you say for small/moderate bettors they are really a waste of resources. Nothing wrong with a small ticket, isolating some singles to shorten the ticket just in case kismet happens and you happen to be right.
Also agree with making the bet cheaper so more can play it. We talk on and on about attracting people to the game, but the wager that gets the most pub is the most expensive. Go figure.
I love the Pick 4, and am alive to 4 horses in the last leg. I\'m hoping to beat the Hushion horse, but certainly included on the ticket, and can\'t blame you for singling. I singled a few earlier and went a bit deeper later, hoping the chalk loses the last. Best of luck to you Frank, and all who are taking a shot at the P6 today.
plasticman Wrote:
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> This Jones horse could win easy, but do you really
> want a second time starter who ran \'big\' first time
> out and now comes back as a second time starter with
> a \'bad date\'? Where\'s he been?
From an \"oh-fer-\", or low percentage guy, no.
The questions you are asking above get horseplayers in
trouble, IMO: we aren\'t with the horse every day...but
the trainer is.
Trust the trainer, when he has numbers like Hushion.
Nice single Frank.
Nothing makes you feel smarter than going 4 deep and watching a 1\'2 shot canter around the track.
I think Johnny could have rode that horse(8th race) backwards and won.