Frac Daddy sending from the rail according to his connections. Freedom Child gonna have no choice from the 2 hole but to go. Obviosuly Oxbow going to be up there from FC\'s outside. Will be hotly contested early even if it\'s only those 3 and there could be a few others up there as well.
I think the 2 implications from this are that
1) neither Oxbox nor Freedom Child are going to get an easy ground saving lead like they did in their last respective races
2) The stalking types are at risk of losing significant ground on the first turn given those other three going for the lead.
Isn\'t Midnight Taboo in this as a rabbit? I haven\'t seen his figs but he definitely has enough speed to be a pace factor here. Overanalyze\'s best races seem to be from well off the pace, and I\'ve got to think Repole wants to ensure a fast pace.
Throw in a wet strip and it looks like a pretty fast pace and a falling apart race when they turn for home.
I agree Magic.
hmm, let\'s see
tiring wet track, potentially insane pace upfront
didn\'t we just see such a race a few weeks ago at Churchill Downs where the horses that were running 17, 18, 19 early were 1, 2, 3 at the wire.
Looking for which one will save ground and save energy early who is fresh and can handle the distance.
Golden Soul would have been really interesting but that 14 post hurts. Not going to be easy to get over to the rail into the first turn.
Wasn\'t Golden Soul really knocked out by his Derby effort? I know he\'s had rest and seems to be working well, but that was a big jump and I\'m leery of his form. The 12F breeding is there, but his price won\'t be too long so ... eh. Tough call.
Jim/Magic,
I don\'t see Taboo as a rabbit. You don\'t bring Gomez in to ride rabbits. Not his style. They think the horse wants the distance.
McPeek talking about sending from the rail is one of the dumber comments I have seen. You have to have a horse to send. Other than a stupid suicide mission, Frac Daddy does not have the natural speed to lead horses like Freedom\'s Child or Oxbow early. Hard for me to believe McPeek is THAT DUMB.
As for Golden Soul, if you believe the pace will be that fast, which I don\'t, I would not worry about post 14. The fast pace will surely stretch out the field and Golden Soul is dropping back, he isn\'t leaving for position, like some other mid pack types will be doing.
Jimbo,
who you like as of now?
After the post draw and the comments about Frac Daddy from McPeek, I am more inclined to lean toward Overanalyze
I don\'t like Palice Malice as much fromt he 12 hole. That would seem to be a brual post for his style.
Overanalyze is fresh, has won at Belmont, should be able to drop down to the rail and save ground every step of the way if the first two really do go, has a jock that knows how to win this race and has good back TG figures to run to (even though I swore I wouldn\'t think about that this race)
Jim, good point on Gomez. I had not considered that. Maybe I\'ll feel differently when I see his sheet, but even if they think he can get the distance, I think he\'d get it too slow to win the thing.
I think you are giving jockeys too much credit. GoGo wants to be here, even if a suicide mission. Million bucks what if the steed hangs on for 4th ??? Sure he could go for the 55k NW1 out in CA. And I can hear McPeek now ... well he didnt break well so we took back ... blah blah ... C\'mon guys this is why WE play, because others are caught up trying to get inside the heads of the connections. Stay the course! Except for you Jim (jst kidding) Hey did you ever snap up those Clubhouse seats from Stub Hub? Later lads !!! Good luck to all, hope the weather doesnt turn out as bad as they are saying ...
Hey Niall
good stuff
1) I know it\'s not going to rain a drop now because we didn\'t enter Swift Warrior because of the expected boggy turf course. Was 5k to enter and didn\'t feel like throwing that money down the tubes hoping the weatherman is wrong. That almost guarentees fast and firm.
2) I bet on Orb in the Preakness by paying 2x list price for the Clubhouse seats on StubHub prior to the Preakness. Whoops
3) Maybe I am naive but I believe McPeek, he says horse runs better in the clear and there\'s evidence of that in his PPs so he will send him. Garcia won this race going to wire to wire in similar fashion before. I think he is really going to send him
I am gratefully soaking up all the insights offered thus far...the only thing I can add (of any value?) at this point is that to ask Alan Garcia to send this horse is a complete waste of some of the best hands in the business. Maybe McPeak just wants to get position. McPeak uses AG regularly at Churchill now, so he is aware of Garcia\'s sweet and deft touch as a jock - and is going with him here despite his high stats with VLebron. Maybe with position, AG can get the horse to relax and get him out of the inside? Beats me.
I recall mjellish\'s comments about Frac Daddy\'s prior races. And I know he is someone that watches the horses themselves closely.
At this point, I am liking the top three Derby finishers plus maybe Oxbow. Maybe swap out one for WTC? Frost Giant? Don\'t know yet, but Orb and GS looking good right now for me.
Just posted my thoughts on AG being asked to send his horse. I this think you are right. He must be planning on sending him to at least get position and avoid the kickback, etc. (see mjellish\'s former comments. I haven\'t watched replays for this race yet)
Whether or not he can hang on is another question, but it may be his only real chance and with the rail he could save ground and maybe get a check.
hah, ironic
after saying yesterday I wasn\'t going to use the TGs to pick my horse in the Belmont, after the draw I wind up on the same horse as JB does in the ROTW
man, this TG thing is some kind of disease, I can\'t get it out of my system!
Jim,
When I bet the Belmont, I don\'t put a ton of weight in the figures. (sorry TGJB)
Right now, I am inclined to believe Orb is \"over the top\", which to me means anybody can win, because I don\'t like the next two choices, Revolutionary and Oxbow.
I am probably going to spread with both the Pick-4 and Brooklyn/Belmont double, using Overanalyze, Freedom\'s Child, Golden Soul and Incognito. (possibly even your Palace Malice)
Point of Entry has to fall down to lose on reasonably firm turf. The Just a Game looks open to me. I will be pressing the fast West Coast horse, Let em Shine, in the Woody Stephens. I don\'t know if I can single him, as the field is tough, but I will be pressing hard. I don\'t know what the TG numbers look like, but he is very very fast and talented.
Jim
Jimbo, with 80% rain on Fri and 60% sat, I\'d say fast/firm is a pipe dream, which makes POE vulnerable if he does race, given that his connex have scratched him for nothing more than track conditions recently. They know he does not like give in the ground.
This, to me, makes that race wide open, and creates some great value in pk3/4 when you take the Belmont into consideration too.
POE won a grade 1 at Belmont on a yielding turf course last year, running a figure that fit with his pattern in the process
That horse will run over broken glass.
They scratched him at CD because it was a 1 1/8th which wasn\'t his game in the first place and because Wise Dan is a freak job and because he wasn\'t doing that well going into the Woodford (I saw his last breeze myself), he got very hot going onto and coming off of the track
If he hadn\'t drawn the rail maybe you could make a case that the extra weight and the ground loss combined gives someone else a shot but I have to agree with Jimbo now that with the field that entered this thing and with that rail draw, he would have to fall down to lose.
OK, I finally got a chance to look thru the figs.
If you talked to their connex and they explained that to you, that\'s fine, but if not I\'m not seeing what the shame is in running 2nd to WiseDan in that race. His races at 9f equal his best in his form cycles at any given time, so unless his connex don\'t use sheets it is hard to have an opinion that he is not at his best at 9F.
And while his less-than-firm races are not Xs, they don\'t seem to represent his best races either, which is why I say he is vulnerable, especially at the weight. While the 1 post might be good for saving ground, I find that many times in turf races with decent-sized fields, this means one of two things for a drop-back closer. Either getting trapped in on the rail behind a wall of horses, or maneuvering widest off the rail after everyone else has already gone by, negating the advantage of the rail.
With the weight advantage, there are a few capable of running a weight-adjusted 0thru2 here either already or with a small improvement, which unless POE runs a lifetime best on off-going, makes them competitive.
And the other thing I\'ll say is, remembering 2 or 3 years ago when it was actively raining during the racing most of the day, EVERY race on the turf was won in wire-to-wire fashion, including that 34-1 shot Mission Approved (or whatever his name was) in this very race. If it is actively raining and there is water on the blades of grass, POE has absolutely the wrong style to win the race.
Tread,
Good thoughts. Thanks
I disagree but hell, last time I aegued that a 3 to 5 shot was unbeatable on this board, Orb was seen flailing up the track.
I looked at this race alot ahead of time because we were going to enter Swift Warrior and his paired 1s with the 8 pd weight break from POE but with the forecast, we opted out at the last minute because I won\'t run him on a bog. That\'s how we bowed citrus kid\'s tendon and I vowed never to do that again.
I dont see anyone running in the 0 to 2 range which they would have to do with projected ground loss. The other 2 fast ones are either coming off a huge new top (twilight eclipse) or running their 4th race in 8 weeks (optimizer)
Finally, the other ones dont get to run on firm surface. They all have to run on the bog which will slow them all down
If he hadn\'t drawn the rail, I would be with you.
I find it interest that several times JB questioned a particular horse\'s ability to get the 1 1/2 distance but yet that was never mentioned as a negative on Overanalyze. Dixie Union on top, sorry that\'s why I tossed him Derby Day and see no reason to change that opinion. Orb may offer value again. The filly is going to be totally over bet so I can\'t use her. That leaves me with Revolutionary and Incognito for 2nd and third.
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I find it interest that several times JB
> questioned a particular horse\'s ability to get the
> 1 1/2 distance but yet that was never mentioned
> as a negative on Overanalyze. Dixie Union on top,
> sorry that\'s why I tossed him Derby Day and see no
> reason to change that opinion.
Might want to ask Union Rags about that.
Dixie union sired last years Belmont winner?
I think Bombaguia is definitely worth mentioning too. After a weight adjustment, he has already run nearly a 0 on a less-than-firm track at this very track/distance and run good figures this year to indicate he is still in very good form. And he has the front-end style I\'m looking for if the grass is wet.
I\'m less concerned about Twilight Eclipse\'s bounce given the time off and the relative strength of his sibling, Grand Contender. While he may not pair, I still think a 2 may be good enough to win the race, and at his weight with a common path, that is really just a 3 for TE, which seems quite reasonable to expect here.
If it comes down to closers, if there is some give in the ground there are a couple euros that might be eligible to run better than they have shown so far, I think one of them ran a really good fig overseas as a 3yr old without Lasix of course, and if he can find that form again and make a small move forward with the Lasix and work out a decent trip, he could be dangerous.
The one thing I know for certain I can do, is adjust the figures relative to POEs weight. I guess you and I differ about how sure you can be about the path a drop-back closer is going to run, especially with the risk of getting pinned down on the rail in a larger field. Also, I believe that turf course drains toward the inside, and this race is on the inner turf, meaning the inside will be the worst part of the track if there is significant water. I\'m sure you also noticed the couple of 1W4W trips in POEs history, this is the kind of thing I\'m talking about.
Given this scenario and the odds, I have to play the race with the opinion that he is going to give up that ground advantage (or suffer a blocked trip on a dead rail if he does not), and if I get beat at even money because that was the wrong opinion, I can live with it. If they don\'t get much rain at all over those 48 hours, however, I\'m much less certain about this strategy and would have to re-think it.
You mentioned Optimizer, we are getting late in the spring campaign and DWL has a few running that day that have had pretty tough campaigns, this one included. If he has anything left, he has the number power and style as well that could be tough. Or he may end up being vanned off, who knows. I think it\'s an exciting race and a great place to take a stab, but good luck either way.
Tread,
POE has been no worse than 3rd at the 3rd call in 6 out of his last 7 races.
Where are we getting the idea that he\'s a \"drop back closer\"?
Looks like a stalker or more forwardly placed horse who will greatly benefit from a ground saving trip.
Granted, and in Europe there\'s been at least two. That said; the percentages on Dixie Union offspring winning at 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 are not good.
He may run up the track but I dont think it will have anything to do with Dixie union if he does.
The horse has already run his 2 best races going 1 1/8 including one in which he went 5 wide and galloped out all the way around the turn. Dixie union was his sire when he did that.
He may not be good enough but there\'s nothing to say he won\'t get the distance.
Fair enough, that is my mistake as I guess I had his trip in the BC race last year too prominently in my head. But with the pace setup in this race, I do think he will be optioning back behind at least half the field here and then the jock will have to make a decision about moving off the rail, and may need/want to anyway if that is the boggiest part of the track.
On BRIS anyway, QuickCas, RealSolution, Optimizer, Plainview, Bombaguia, Twilight and maybe even SpeakingofWhich all appear to regularly put out much more E1 speed than POE does. If you are looking thru his PPs, I expect this race to shape up much more like the BC race for POE than others where he may have been laying 3rd in the early going *EDIT* many of those being 6 or 7 horse fields.
Horse is fresh and sharp coming off a layoff and with a few bullet works
He\'s not goimg to be too far back.
I\'m kinda curious as to why everyone is so quick to concede POE a figure he doesn\'t run that often...
What\'s his percentage chance of running it? And of winning if he does?
i got to thinking about the pace study that showed that every belmont winner since secretariat had the flatest pace line in his respective race, so i went back to the derby to check the pace lines of the 9 horses that will be running against each other again in the belmont:
ranked from flatest to the sharperst pace lines:
orb
golden soul and revolutionary (tied)
overanalyze
giant finish
will take charge
frac daddy
oxbow
palice malice
vyjack
when you look at each horse\'s internal fractions--the race doesn\'t really support how it is described.
in order of fastest opening fraction:
palice malice: 22.57, 22.69, 24.32, 26.67, 28.86
vyjack: 22.77, 22.91, 24.67, 28.08, 33.34
oxbow: 22.83, 23.08, 24.10, 26.12, 28.28
frac daddy: 23.13, 23.78, 24.38, 26.96, 28.68
giant finish: 23.18, 23.31, 24.51, 26.52, 27.56
will take charge: 23.32, 23.55, 24.33, 25.60, 28.05
overanalyze: 23.53, 23.78, 24.15, 26.44, 27.15
golden soul: 23.62, 23.92, 24.01, 25.48, 26.11
orb: 23.74, 23.92, 23.98, 25.08, 25.88
revolutionary: 23.93, 23.84, 24.04, 25.39, 26.09
the 7 horses on the lead for the first 2 quarters, who ran at least a second faster than orb and company at the first call, and 2 seconds faster then them at the second call, clearly suffered a legitimate pace melt down, but the 10 other horses in the race were never even a second faster than they were at the first two calls, but still couldn\'t sustain their pace, and faded badly. i\'m not sure they qualify as victims of the pace though. i think they just petered out honestly.
orb, golden soul and revolutionary appear to have won because they were more successful at rationing their speed over the course of the race. they ran more efficient races. and it looks like that ability more than anything else is what wins the belmont (this is true in human distances races as well). if they can churn out consecutive 24s or 25s, they\'ll win. and even if they run 24, 24, 24, 25, 26, 27--they should still win, since the other horses run much less efficient races.
based on his brisk early fractions and slow final fractions in the derby in a shorterrace, sending frac daddy doesn\'t look like the best idea to be honest...
regarding orb\'s fractions:
he ran 84 feet more than revolutionary, 80 more than golden soul, 76 more than oxbow, 54 more than palice malice, 51 more than overanalyze, 39 more than giant finish, 30 more than will take charge--only vyjack and and frac daddy ran farther (12 and 18 feet respectively)...at some point distance run has to cancel out pace advantages, especially for horses that never ran even a full second faster in any quarter...
dixie union has a large enough progeny pool to make betting against their ability to win at a mile and a half pretty rational based on the distance limitations almost all of them have consistently shown...and two dixie unions winning back to back...
but to be fair, comparing a mile and eighth to a mile and half, is like comparing a mile to a mile and eighth, or 6f to a mile. many more horses can get a 1 1/8 than can get 1 1/2...
Union Rags had some help at the bottom of his pedigree.
Nijinski was a 12f\'s plus horse and his daughter Terpsichorist won at 12f\'s.
In the case of Overanalyze he doesn\'t look as strong on the bottom as Union Rags.Doesn\'t mean he can\'t win the Belmont but on bloodlines he looks like a nine furlong horse and maybe borderline for ten.
Big,
After a Roman Ruler out of a Saratoga Six mare won the Belmont, I decided I wasn\'t going to rule out pedigrees that \"can\'t get the distance\" anymore
Anyone remember when Distorted Humor\'s weren\'t suppossed to be able to get 1 1/4 let alone a 1 1/2? Someone forgot to tell that to Funny Cide and Drosselmeyer respectively
Forestry\'s don\'t scream classic distance races but yet somehow Shackleford caused me to tear up all my Preakness tickets that year.
I don\'t want to come off as having alot of conviction on Overanalyze because I don\'t and I think anyone who says that have alot of conviction in any of the Belmont horses is kidding themselves because this is about as wide open of a classic race as I have ever seen (which is what makes it so cool)
I am looking for horses whose running style seems to fit the race and who have run well over the track and since Dixie Union sired last year\'s winner and this horse has run his best races at longer distances I am not going to throw him out on pedigree. Throw a few good back TG figures in there (which I swore I wouldn\'t care about) and an alternating pattern and I have a horse I can make a low conviction case for at 12-1
Exactly my point JB, I think those % you spoke of are different on a fast/firm vs an off surface as well.
The forecast now appears to be extremely dire, this tropical storm is going to shoot up the coast and dump 2-3 inches of rain on NY from Friday to Sat morning. To me, that all but guarantees the rail will be a negative on that inner turf course. And given conditions will likely be as bad as CD if not worse, if POE does end up running here it would have to mean he was ducking Wise Dan, which just seems ridiculous.
POEs workout tab looked identical going into the BC last year, where he dropped back to 9th out of 12, but I will grant you that is at a longer distance so maybe he was ridden more conservatively there. If horses are winning wire to wire all day on the turf then the jocks may realize they need to be as aggressive as possible out of the gate.
The other thing to watch is, with all this rain inbound, the track might be extremely dry today so it can hold as much water as possible? Loose and tiring dirt? Hard turf course that wont be watered?
Tread,
Is POE the only one that has to run on the soft course? Do the rest of them get a firm course to run on so that we get your breeders cup like 46 and change first half mile and he has to run by himself on a boggy course where he will struggle to go 50 seconds for the first half and be 10 lengths back?
He won a grade 1 race at this track on a yielding turf course beating a multiple grade 1 winner in the process who himself would be even money if he were in this race and you are making it out to seem as if he hates that kind of course. Why is that?
There\'s not another horse in the race that looks like they will run a weight adjusted \"2\" to me and that means he is many lengths better than any horse in here even before the ground he should save
I love beating favorites as much as the next guy and I certainly won\'t be betting any money on this guy to win at 3-5 but I don\'t see the wisdom in trying to bet against him just for the sake of it when there\'s no one else in the race that you can logically project to run a number to beat him.
Saying a favorite is vulnerable is one thing (which I don\'t agree with in this case anyway) but having an opion on WHO coudl beat him is necessary in order to make money and there\'s no one in this race that projects on the thorograph data to run a number that would beat him, even at the weight.
There is a MUCH greater likelihood that Twilight Eclipse and the Kimmel horse bounce off of their last figures than it is that Point of Entry doesn\'t run his race. That would leave you beating one of the other horses that even with the weights and ignoring how much ground he should save and they should lose puts any of the others 6-7 lengths behind him
Tread I have to side with Jim on the BC Turf Trip. It was an aberation. Less than 100 yards out of the gate Spencer on Treasure Beach looked over his left shoulder and dropped Treasure Beach right on the rail directly in front of POE who broke from the 1 hole. Spencer then dropped Anchor.....so much so that JV had to slightly check. Could JV have swung out a little and manuevered up in the race. NO!!! The other O\'Brien horse was on his right flank until the turn for home. The 2 O\'Brien horses kept him boxed. I have no doubt that after JV got a measure on the pace he would have moved up down the backstretch.....but he never had a chance. And once he got rolling down the lane on the rail Ramon smartly drifted over and closed that off. Racing Riding. Nothing dirty just what happens.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqNzAGyHy7E
POE is running on Saturday. He needs the race. They wanted firm Turf on Derby Day and wanted Wise Dan.....even at his better distance. Shugs son Chip works for Lopresti and there has been a friendly rivalry going on. Carrying 124lbs on a bog of a Turf Course going a 1M 1/4 and giving serious weight POE needs to be dead fit to win. As of 5 weeks ago he was....
FYI..Latest NWS synopsis:
Potential for moderate to heavy rain should continue to spread east-Ward into the rest of the County Warning Area Friday via continued moisture transport from the south and precipitable water increasing to near 2 inches.
Tropical Storm Andrea...currently in the eastern Gulf of Mexico...
is then forecast to move up the southeast coast on Friday...As this takes
place...the heaviest rains should shift to the left of the low
track...and the strongest winds to the east...so the primary
threat appears to be heavy rain...with the highest amts over
NYC...Long Island and coastal CT. However...it would not take
much of a westward shift in the forecast track to shift axis of
heaviest rains farther north/west and to make wind a concern
especially over eastern Long Island and southeast CT. Please refer to
current and future NHC advisories/forecasts for further
details...and below for potential hydrologic impacts.
Post-tropical Andrea should pass well to the NE on Sat.
ESSENTIALLY...Heavy rain for NYC area and LI >2 inches beginning late Thursday evening continuing throughout Friday, ending on Saturday...For those going to
Belmont, after looking at the latest \'maps\' at this point the heavy rain should end between 7:00 - 10:00 am Saturday..However main track will be quite sloppy early on drying out as the day goes on...Lovely for handicapping (forgive my sarcasm)..
John
JB, did you know that Serling was going to share your text to him about POE on air this morning on Talkin\' Horses?
Serling also mentioned before his Just a Game analysis that the race would run over a part of the course that hasn\'t been run on weeks and the horses should be just fine running on that part of the turf course. I was unclear if this applied to the Manhattan which is originally listed as being run on the Inner Turf. Can anyone clear this up?
No, what did he say about it?
I hate to paraphrase but he said it was a \"great text.\" Fast forward to about 1:03:30. Let it roll through 1:04.30 for the full context of his statements.
http://www.nyra.com/belmont/handicapping/talking-horses-replay/
I think it was a text from a different Jerry brown. Serling specifically referenced his Jerry brown text as coming from a shrewd or smart guy
Jim
Either a different me or a different Andy.