Below is from a poll that Horse Racing Nation has. Its a small sample (1,500 votes) but I have found these polls to be a pretty good indication of the odds in the past. Odds usually are not too far off. Golden Soul at 10-1 and Unlimited Budget at 20-1 seem like the value. If its sloppy with the expected rain Freedom could be very tough on the front even with Oxbow breathing down his neck.
Results HRN Fan Odds
Orb 24%
2-1
Revolutionary 23%
5-2
Palace Malice 8%
8-1
Freedom Child 8%
9-1
Golden Soul 7%
10-1
Overanalyze 6%
11-1
Oxbow 5%
14-1
Unlimited Budget 3%
20-1
Will Take Charge 3%
22-1
Incognito 2%
27-1
Vyjack 2%
31-1
Frac Daddy 1%
42-1
Always In a Tiz 1%
48-1
Giant Finish 1%
56-1
Total Votes: 1546
I hope Revolutionary is 5-2.
Borel the only reason he hit the bottom of the tri in the Derby.
Why is Palace Malice getting so much respect? What am I missing?
Their poll doesn\'t represent a balanced odds line--it\'s at 128%, needs to be at 119% in NY. And it fails to include Midnight Taboo altogether.
Oxbow is the real surprise there as the Preakness winner not receiving much support in the fan voting. Oxbow tends to always be in a contending position turning for home, save the Ark Derby. But many people apparently believe he was a slow pace front running score that won\'t happen again. Maybe he is real value underneath; I thought he would be an overbet horse in the win pool that would lead to bettors constructing ex/tri/super tickets to overuse him \"because he is being bet as one of the top choices in the win pool\" thought process.
I think I underestimated the Rosie on a filly angle in my line. Unlimited Budget will likely be less than 15-1 the more I consider it.
I believe its a combination of excuses in a few of his recent races and reports that he is training the best of the Pletcher\'s.
Someone noted after the derby that he was running on the dead part of the track. I think he has a decent shot but at 5-2 no value & I am passing on him under 4-1.
He still has a top of 4.5 with Thoro-Pattern giving him only an 18% chance of running a new top. He could be working like the 2nd coming of Secretariat & I wouldn\'t put a dime on him. Maybe it says more about the other Pletcher horses than it does about him that he\'s training the best of the Pletchers.
20-1 offshore on UB. Paired 0.75 - 0.75 might win the race!
Toppled i bet this horse in Louisiana and yes he got a little rank or early moved but he stopped badly. In Kentucky he got tired lated and switched back on his leads and got run down. Then in Kentucky he runs off early (??) and stops again. Maybe he is learning his manners better in his Training but I really wonder about his distance capabilites. And there will be other pace in here.....
My biggest question mark on her is the distance. When I look at her sheet, I see that all her siblings were sprinters. Now that may be because 4 of them were bred to Montbrook. Since the paired 0.75s were routes & Street Sense adds more stamina than her sibs were bred for, I can see why you like what you\'re seeing and she looks as good as anything else here on the numbers & weight advantage and she\'s in the 6 I have as my contenders (others are Orb, Oxbow, Freedom Child, Incognito, and Golden Soul).
My other concern is the jockey assignments by Pletcher. At best among the 5, Rosie is 3rd string here with #1 JV returning to Overanalyze & #2 JC returning to Revolutionary-both have ridden Unlimited Budget in the past & land on other Pletcher horses (both of these are not in my list of 6 contenders, although on numbers many will include Overanalyze).
Is he going to be in your wagers or are you looking elsewhere? Because you know the whys behind the PPs, whether you\'re is sticking with the horse or giving up provides a good insight, especially since I\'ve just been tossing him without carefully studying him and you definitely know more about him than I do.
Aren\'t horses like this exactly why we use these numbers? He has zero chance on figs and hasn\'t developed a lick from his debut last July. Him getting bet is just dead money for us to take advantage of, no?
I loved PM\'s derby as a prep for the Belmont. He was the pace at 45.33 and 109.80 and up until final yards was still in 7th place (ahead of 12 other good 3yr olds ). 5.5 lengths in front of Oxbow at 4f, and 3.5 lengths in front of Oxbow at 6f. Only front runner to out perform him was Oxbow and he was going much faster early than Oxbow.
i locked in at 20-1 on UB. orb listed at 3-1. oxbow 3.5-1. FC 10-1. incog 30-1 and golden 7-1.
That\'s a nice bet. Definitely the best value in the race. If the odds hold I will most likely make the same play on Saturday. With the weight break she is in negative tg # territory. I will use Golden as my backup play. If its wet it may be hard for me to pass up Freedom Child though.
He will be a monster price (maybe as high as 40:1 or more) and if we excuse the derby (complete non effort) due to the antibiotics, honestly, why can\'t he full on win this?
Sire profile says 4 points of development in him which would be -3 range, heck even a 0 with a good trip very well could win this, which is well within his range. 5 weeks of rest, unlike Orb and Ox. And he\'s already run faster than Rev twice, who while having a decent looking pattern and rest coming in, could literally be 10 times shorter. If the goal is to make money not just be able to say \"I had the winner\" this guy looks like one to use.
Also, quoting the host here from the seminar: \"...but we\'ll be a lot more interested in him next time, if he throws the off race now.\"
Adding this bit, from today\'s drf:
http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-prado-brings-longshot-touch-giant-finish
\"While owner David Wilkenfeld is on board, he said the decision to run Vyjack in the Belmont Stakes came because of the confidence trainer Rudy Rodriguez has in the colt.
"I gave them every opportunity to back out," Wilkenfeld said, referring to Rudy and his brother and assistant Gustavo Rodriguez. "I didn't press on them at all. They have confidence in the horse. If you draw a line through the Derby you can put him in there with everybody else."
I would never try to talk someone out of using a 40-1 shot especially one with number power that puts him in the conversation. But the big block in my mind is his breeding, mostly his sire, Into Mischief.
Going into the Derby, I believed it was a question mark if this sire could get a son or daughter to go 1 1/4 miles. I gave him (the sire) the benefit of the doubt. Then, I saw Goldencents and Vyjack not able to get the distance in the Derby. They had an excuse in the mud, the fast pace they attended, Vyajck\'s outside post, etc. Then, Goldencents came back and couldn\'t go 1 3/16 miles in Maryland. Now I view Goldencents SA Derby 1 1/8 win as aided by a speed favoring track combined with a weak field. I think the Louisiana Bred Sittin At the Bar is out of Into Mischief and has won a stakes or two. I think her best races have been at the shorter distances and she may have won at 1 mi, 70 yds but she has also lost at odds on in a route stakes in La. So I personally think Into Mischief can get horses to go 1 1/16 but much further seems a stretch.
I\'ll grant you these things in his favor: Vyjack ran a solid Wood Memorial at a 1 1/8 losing to a horse that many say was \"prematurely moved in the Derby\" in Normandy Invasion--heck based on the Preakness results, is it possible NI ran the best race in the Derby into the teeth of the wicked pace? Vyjack was right with him in the Wood. And his Derby appears to be a throwout altogether to me--but I still believe he may really, really like the mud meaning Freedom Child isn\'t the only mud lover in the group.
http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/race-replay/AQD/2012/20121209/3/pan/
But I just can\'t see him getting the 1 1/2 miles. Vyjack\'s mama threw a horse named Prime Cut that ran the 1 1/2 mile 2011 Belmont (Sire was Bernstein) and he ran 11th of 12. Into Mischief plus this tiny bit of info on his brother gives me no conviction he can win.
As for 40-1, I personally think that is high for at least three reasons. 1.) the withdraw of Always in a Tiz reducing the field to 14 makes it less likely; 2.) the last two Belmont\'s had fields of 11 and 12 with Ravelo\'s Boy in 2012 at 27-1 as the longest shot and Isn\'t He Perfect at 30-1; 3.) Frac Daddy and Giant Finish certainly should be longer prices.
But if you like a good story about a Ragozin user and his horse named after his parents, here\'s Haskin\'s take in March.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2013/03/04/haskin-s-derby-trail-the-unlikely-story-of-vyjack.aspx
you\'re ok with incognito running lasix-free?
Quote from: Fairmount1is it possible NI ran the best race in
the Derby into the teeth of the wicked pace? Vyjack was right
with him in the Wood.
NI is a tapit; tapits seem to excel at 1 1/16.
he has a ton of successful progeny, but i can only think of one that won past a mile and eighth--careless jewel won at a mile and a quarter. i think NI ran the best race his breeding could have predicted he\'d run--in the lead at the top of the stretch, tiring late. he could be the union rags of tapits...but...i\'m disinclined to believe that unless he does something on par with a dixie union colt (who\'s full brother was pure sprinter), winning the belmont
verranzo was right there with vyjack and NI in the wood too....
Heard Vyjack was ridden hard in the 59 work. Strange move so close to the race?
I agree with you that Golden Soul (@12/1) is the value and the key to profit in this race. Rarely does a G1 race appear to me as a lesser of evils proposition yet this one does.
No need to look at the positives just toss the negative ones. Then box GS, Orb & Oxbow in ex\'s & tri\'s. It won\'t be boxcars but healthy enough!
Freedom Child? - note Oxbow has taken the lead in the stretch in each of his races except Ark Derby (where Stevens pulled a Rosario and put his mount where it didn\'t want to be.)
I look forward to the collective intelligence of this board\'s machinations exposing the pretenders between now and Sat. whether because of pattern, # power, stamina, or workouts.
Side note - hard to believe the 6 beat the 2 in the 6th race @ IND last night 6/4/2013 watched replay 3 times fooled the video camera man too. Photo finish camera must have been ? in the wrong place?.
That\'s the way he\'s run so far & I\'m looking at him as around my 3rd or 4th choice. I\'m hoping to have the Brooklyn/Belmont Double going with Ruler on Ice and 6 horses (Orb & 5 savers), one of them Incognto. I loved the gallop out in the Peter Pan where he goes flying by the field, including Freedom Child after losing by over 15 lengths. Now Freedom Child didn\'t have much of a gallop out (more like none), but Incognito was full of run in his gallop out-without Lasix.