LL closed like a shot in the SA Derby. Improved 6+ lengths on Yougottawanna since last fall. However, his Beyers are relatively weak. Any opinion on this horse?
Nick, go to the ROTW section and pull up the santa anita derby, check out the sheets.
Looks can be deceiving. The whole race was a complete colapse, the winner was completely out of gas, second place having equipment problems and the other good horse bouncing out of the race. He received a BRIS late pace rating of 97, not competitive with the other closers in the field. No shot in the derby.
I use brisnet for broad indication of pace - yet I have no clue what \"late pace\" means (I guess it\'s sad that I still use it). I look at the wood and sunday break has a better late pace figure than medaglia d\'oro, even though he lost ground at the end - I guess it\'s based on more distance (last 3f ?) than I thought. Anyway the point I\'m making (based on my wood example) is that lusty latin\'s supposedly disappointing late pace figure takes into account the last bend where he was 12 wide (OK maybe less) and hanging, rather than solely the impressive ground he made up in the last furlong (and he really made up a lot of ground). As you say he was closing on two horses that were stopping (the one in yellow will presumably run in the sprint at arlington...) and he has no shot in the derby anyway, but sometimes figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt. If you have a good definition of late pace on brisnet I would love to hear it (it would make my $3 more meaningful).
Treadhead wrote:
>
> Looks can be deceiving. The whole race was a complete
> colapse, the winner was completely out of gas, second place
> having equipment problems and the other good horse bouncing
> out of the race. He received a BRIS late pace rating of 97,
> not competitive with the other closers in the field. No shot
> in the derby.
I don\'t know the specific BRIS definition, but the Sartin definition in route races is racelength-6f. E1 speed is the first 4 furlongs and E2 speed is the next 2. LP is whatever is left. Sartin actually calculates feet/second and BRIS somehow converts this to a 100+ point scale.
I will grant you that the pace figures do not make adjustments for ground loss of weight carried, which is one of my biggest beefs with them.
I was not trying to suggest that you could draw the conclusion just based on his figures that his race wasn\'t that great, I was merely saying that the reason it was visually impressive is that he was closing against dead horses. As an afterthought, if you compare his late pace figures to other closers in general they don\'t quite stack up. Perhaps the figure should be higher since he raced wide, but I\'m still not impressed.
Treadhead,
The pace for races run around 1 turn between 5 and 9 furlongs is all straightaway. How can you lose ground on a straightaway? Since most races in America are run around 1 turn (6f the most popular distance), what need would one have for a ground loss calculation?
MO
Are you serious??
Yes. I\'m talking early pace. On dirt. At the specified distances. You see a turn (ground loss) in there somewhere?
MO
And I might add that if you use Thorograph, you have the info you need to calculate your own pace figures.
MO
You lost me Mark. While I agree that not ALL the segments in a race would need an adjustment, and in the case of 1 turn races probably only one of the figures needs adjustment, there is at a minimum one of the pace figures that will need to be adjusted in every race. In the case of the route we are speaking of, for 9 furlong races the late pace figure will cover the last 3 furlongs. In all cases I can think of, this takes us back to the the turn into the homestrecth (maybe not at Sportsmans). Hope this helps....
I gotcha. But given the fact that American racing places an emphasis on early pace, shouldn\'t the question of late pace ratings be more relevant to turf racing?
MO
Perhaps Mark, but there are many situations in dirt routes where this is also a good thing to look at. Or even in sprints if a pace analysis shows there are several front runners who may burn out, you would like to know who will be picking up the pieces (BC Sprints are usually a good example).
I find it to be an extremely relevant piece of evaluating derby contenders, which was the topic of this string. Actually any situation where horses are stretching out, the late pace figure is a good (but not only) indicator as to how well they will perform stretching out. It provides a statictical backing to the statement \"Came Home will not like 1 1/4 miles\".