In my humble opinion, there is only one real snake to jump over for ORB on Saturday and that is Itsmyluckyday. He is fast. He looked great prior to Derby. He worked very well yesterday. And he has a positive rider change.
I\'m not saying he is going to win but I would like the opinion of those on the board if he is cycling back to the fast races early this year. If he is, he CAN win - not saying he will.
I think all decisions on betting Preakness revolve around Lucky as I consider him the only real threat to ORB. If he doesn\'t run his race - ORB airs this field easily - and he will be even money to do it so it\'s not a good betting race.
However, if IMLD runs his race we could see a real horse race. All the others are players for minor awards here - ORB is the real deal.
Michael
hah, Michael, I just posted pretty similar thoughts!
I am afraid I just jinxed you!!!!!
sorry about that!
Ok, so make that 2 snakes to jump now for ORB. IMLD and the Covel/Chok agreement jinx!
He jumped that second snake at CD, yes?
hah, that is true, maybe this horse is really something special :)
Is it really a positive rider change? Tujillo vs JV rider profiles: Overall-2.0/2.3 Dirt-2.3/2.7 routes 1.8/2.2 JV is miles worse when it comes to saving ground, in all categories. I kinda wish Plesa had stuck with Elvis.
Mike Smith on a closer in a race with some pace is a positive replacing Court.
My concern about IMLD is that over the last decade it is rare to find a horse that X\'d in the KD that came back two weeks later and ran well at Pimlico. Jackson Bend comes to mind as he paired his top at Pimlico, and he X\'d after chasing a hot pace at CD. Also Sun King ran a big number early in the year at GP \"0\", ran up the track in the Derby and then started cycling back to his top at Pimlico, where he ran a 2. I think IMLD is over the top, and this race will be the last we see for IMLD at two turns.
With NI out, I don\'t see any of the KD returnees as viable options. Out of all of them, I think Oxbow is the most likely to run well as he was the only horse in the lead pack besides NI to run on after the speed collapsed last weekend. Even at that, the best I could see him doing is moving forward from his last to a 3. Race looks like a pass.
Looked back to 2006. 4 horses x\'d the derby and ran in the Preakness. I excluded the horses with only 1 good number before the derby. the 4 were Jackson Bend, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Gayego. thwe first 2 ran well the last 2 did not.
Anyone else think this is a trap race for Orb? I think Small field of nine, two week turnaround, etc. If he is not close to the pace (provided they don\'t go very fast) I think he could be in trouble.
I don\'t care how they run, I think he is in trouble.To think that with 5 weeks rest he paired his top and now on 2 weeks rest another pair or a forward move,I just don\'t see it.AND the amount of development, and lets not forget 6/5,who needs him.
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike Smith on a closer in a race with some pace is
> a positive replacing Court.
Not if a tiring horse make a sudden double lane change
and damn near comes to a stop in front of him.
Court became the fall guy for what was simply an
an unfortunate (but common) way to lose a race.
Vito,
I start handicapping every race by looking at reasons to toss the favorite, so I can certainly appreciate that you have been the lead \"anti-Orb\" guy on the board, since the Derby ended.
I can certainly agree that new top, paired top, now two weeks rest would seem to be a general recipe for some type of backward move.
All that said, what do you make of the fact that so many Derby winners have run so well over the past 20 years, when they have run back on the 2 weeks rest. I have lost a ton of money betting against Derby winners in the Preakness, including betting against many who didn\'t NEARLY as superior as Orb does, and they still came back to win. (Charismatic, Silver Charm, War Emblem come to mind immediately, the 1st and 3rd because I didn\'t think they were that good, the 2nd because the competition seemed so tough)
The choices in this Preakness just don\'t seem too appealing to me. Do I bet Governor Charlie off the sore foot. Do I bet Itsmyluckyday off a complete dud in the Derby, believing he suddenly couldn\'t handle an off track, despite breeding that suggests otherwise and a nice wet track win. (I believe this horse is now over the top for sure). Do I bet Goldencents off his no-show in the Derby? Another horse bred beautifully for the slop that didn\'t run at all. Do I bet the Lukas runners who have to improve dramatically to win? Oxbow ran courageously, but I would give 2-1 he goes backwards. The other one had the bad trip that everybody saw, and will be an underlay, but I still like him in the Super, but don\'t think he can beat Orb.
I guess my feeling is that I expect Orb to win, can\'t bet him to do so at underlaid odds, but would love to get 6-1 or better on Dreaming of Julia to beat him in the Belmont after Orb squashes the Preakness field.
Jim
I completely understand and believe me I am not afraid to bet 6/5 shots but this line is one I just don\'t like.Speaking of DOJ I didn;t like her in the Oaks and yes they cut her off and she lost all chance but thats just it who wants them at odds on.I will find somebody(I don\'t know departing\'s line)The gov at 15-1 or more not impossible and if I can\'t find anyone ,there are 8 other stakes and 4 other tracks for me to look at.
6/5? Ppl don\'t really think that right? 2/5 seems more likely. Jimbo and I are definitely on the same page here, way too much money burned on Derby winners I expected to bounce and did not. And this one seems one of the more less likely than others like Big Brown, Barbaro, etc.
Only hope at cashing any even reasonably sized tickets in this race is to hope there is some huge longshot before the Dixie and load up on all/SwiftWarrior/Orb pk3s.
I wasn\'t being critical of Court in the Derby.
That was just bad racing luck.
I just like Smith on a closer in general and I think he\'s a better finisher than Court.Preakness will have some pace-WTC is a closer and Smith can get one going with that lefthanded whip in the stretch.
As for Itsmyluckyday I don\'t think the change means that much for a horse that probably doesn\'t want to go a step past 8.5f\'s.
Great points Jimbo. this race is almost unbettable not because of the ORB factor but because who in the hell do you put underneath him if you do expect him to win. And I expect him to win. Nearly every one of \'em has some serious questions of form that make it tough to bet real money on. The most reliable of them - Departing - is probably slowest and they haven\'t said whether they will race with Lasix or not. He was 1st lasix in Ill Derby.
Just a tough race to lay down real money in my opinion.
Unless you have a strong opinion on IMLD to circle back to something close to his top. If that is the case, then the race becomes extremely bettable and there is money to be won.
But, I just can\'t make that call on IMLD. I think it is a tossup really whether he runs his figure/or close to it or just doesn\'t run - like in the derby.
tough call.
Michael
vp612 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> if I can\'t find anyone ,there are 8 other
> stakes and 4 other tracks for me to look at.
I\'ve watched more than one Preakness without having
a single nickel bet on it.
Don\'t try to invent value where none exists, and I
have to say, the idea espoused here at times to bet
against a favorite for no other reason than said
favorite \"will be an underlay\" is simply one of the
worst pieces of handicapping advice I\'ve ever read.
Michael,
The Orb/IMLD exacta was very appealing here as well in a 12 horse field. The defections of Normandy & Vyjak now make it maybe a $20.00 exacta at best.
I\'ll be looking for prices on the other 3 legs of the pick 4.
Good luck,
Frank D.
To be honest, on paper I don\'t even think Orb looks like a bounce candidate. He has run on 2 weeks rest before and moved forward. He didn\'t make a big forward move in the derby. He paired his top. The way he won was much easier than it looked. This colt was goofing off and looking at the crowd down the stretch for 50 yards after he made the lead. He finished with his ears pricked straight up in the air as if he could go around again. He was not all out in the Derby. His workout today was pretty amazing (watch the NYRA video), and if he comes out of it good and settles in at Pimlico I think even money is about fair, but he probably goes off at less than that and I wouldn\'t bet him to win anyway.
I wish NI was going here as I think he was a strong bet against in the verticals. Don\'t really like Goldencents or IMLD here either but it wouldn\'t be a total shock to me if one of the two ran better with a decent trip, especially on the front end, although I think there is enough early speed in here to make for a decent pace. The Lukas colt, WTC, lost all chance in the Derby when Verrazano bore out and made him check off heels. He\'s a huge colt, 17 hands, and not althletic at all but he has a big run in him once he gets moving and he was moving with Orb until the trouble. He may have been able to get all the way up for second in Derby without the trouble. Then again, he may have flattened out. Nonetheless, there may be some value there with him underneath in the verticals if you take a position against Gold and IMLD. And there may be some value in the horizontals with Orb as a single. Otherwise it looks like a pass race to me because unless something changes with Orb at Pimlico I wouldn\'t bet a dime against him.
I don\'t quite understand what your saying about ORB\'S forward moves.He has run 4 times this year and improved 9-1/2 points THE moves were bigger before, but in the derby the forward progress stopped and he paired his top.What that means to me is that he has reached the end of the line (for now) and with 2 weeks rest coming in my read is that he reacts and backs up.COULD he go forward ,sure he could, anything is possible but they are not machines and at some point the progress stops.
I get it Vito. He\'s developed a lot since 2. But he\'s also won 5 in a row and to me its a percentage thing. He wasn\'t all out to win the Derby. He goofed off down the lane, ears pricked straight up in the air. Galloped out well. Ate up that night. He\'s held his weight. His workout today was incredible. He galloped out 5f and 6f faster than anyone else worked. Rider never moved, he did all on his own. Watch the video. So what percentage would you say he is to bounce?
Now he could come out of his work and start to go the other way. And he could have a rough trip. But to me, as of right now he\'s as sure of a thing as it gets. And I\'m not going to waste my money trying to beat him unless something changes because he does\'t have to bounce. In fact, it\'s pretty unlikely IMO.
And to me, that means someone else needs to move forward a fair amount to beat him unless you like IMLD to get back to his top, which was at a shorter distance.
Couldn\'t agree more with your last comment. Tossing IMLD again.
Vito
I don\'t think orb is going to run a new top in the Preakness. But he also doesn\'t need to, unless somebody really moves up or itsmuluckyday gets back to his top and gets a better trip than orb. I personally make itsmuluckyday 10-1 to run the negative 2. No science, but that is my line. Since nobody else has run close to orb, that makes him 90 percent to win for me, if he pairs. Based on the works, the trainer and the way he won the derby I have him 50 percent to pair, which is 90 percent to win. 6-5ish.
On my line that makes this race a pass. Now, those that know me on the board would make it 90 percent to lack the discipline to pass the Preakness, so I will have to invent a bet!!
The early glance at the pps for the policy special make it the worst field I have seen for that race in awhile. Have to see how it is bet, if the public are dumb enough to make Richards kid the favorite, maybe the pimlico special Preakness double could be ok
Jim
Keeping from jumping into this conversation is making my tongue bleed. Preakness will be ROTW.
On the question of Orb\'s improvement....how do we deal with when he first got lasix? I do not know the answer to this....BUT....if he was on Lasix all the time....i would think he is at the end of the line and do for a regression. I am not sure whether when he got lasix should change this interpretation or not. Any thoughts?
Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> vp612 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > if I can\'t find anyone ,there are 8 other
> > stakes and 4 other tracks for me to look at.
>
> I\'ve watched more than one Preakness without
> having
> a single nickel bet on it.
>
> Don\'t try to invent value where none exists, and
> I
> have to say, the idea espoused here at times to
> bet
> against a favorite for no other reason than said
> favorite \"will be an underlay\" is simply one of
> the
> worst pieces of handicapping advice I\'ve ever
> read.
Rick,
Couldn\'t have said it any better.
I know its a big race, but its alright to pass.
I don\'t think you understood me.What I am saying is I think ORB at 3/5 is a bad bet and if I can\'t find someone that I think can beat him (at the right odds)I will look at other races,I don;t have to bet the preakness.
One way to handle a situation like people are talking about with Orb in the Preakness is the following ....
1) make horizontal wagers using a wide spread of horses in the preakness (but not Orb).....presumably, Orb will be very overbet in the horizontal pools and if you beat him, you will get a good payout.
2) in the vertical Preakness wagers, single Orb in the top spot and strictly look for value underneath.
On one hand, your two bets are working against each other. However, it is a way to deal with the conundrum of the horse being overbet but worried he may still win. In the vertical wagers, a lot of money will be thrown away on Orb running second or third....if you only single Orb in the top spot, you are shooting to get the money of the people who put Orb underneath, plus value you can find in other horses. I guess you can look at this sort of play as a hedge.
However, I have found myself in situations like this before where I know the 3-5 is just crazy and I cannot find a way to capitalize on it. Just remember, they all get beat. I have seen plenty of can\'t loses lose. I understand everybody saying he looks so good, but change is the only constant and it doesn\'t matter how good he looked in the Derby or the two weeks leading up to it, all that matters is how he runs on saturday afternoon.
Bravo,and easily,handily,speed to spare,all nonsense,he ran what he ran and he ran very well from the 16.This is a different race and 3/5 on a horse that \'\'should react\'\'is crazy.
I\'ll stick my toe into this discussion to exactly this degree-- the spacing for Orb is different than most 3yos in this situation, and how you view the development issue is a function of how you view the effects of the addition of lasix.
I think the development issue is what it is, but let\'s talk spacing.He had 5 weeks coming into the derby and paired his top.Why would anyone think he will go forward on 2 weeks rest?.He could bounce and win,but I don\'t play that way.
He also had 5 weeks before his previous race.
True, he had 5 weeks but he made big forward moves.I get the feeling not so much from you that people think they just keep going,they don\'t, and he stopped last time with the pair.MAYBE we are not talking the same thing but when I see 3,4 point moves to me that\'s a lot.
Socalman2,
I hear you, but boy do I hate that strategy.
Playing against myself with two different wagers, facing a 20%+ takeout on the exotics on each one.
Make a stand, for or against, and play accordingly.
The ONLY way to have a shot to win, is to have an opinion and be right enough beat the ridiculously high takeouts.
Playing multiple strategies with large take outs is a sure way to the poor house. (I could argue most roads in this game to the poor house!)
Good luck,
Jim
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On the question of Orb\'s improvement....how do we
> deal with when he first got lasix? I do not know
> the answer to this....BUT....if he was on Lasix
> all the time....i would think he is at the end of
> the line and do for a regression. I am not sure
> whether when he got lasix should change this
> interpretation or not. Any thoughts?
TGJB -- In a separate post, you obliquely put your toe into my query above, but did not answer it. I find the issue that Orb ran without lasix for so many races and then got it to be a difficult variable to handle. If this had come up 25 years ago (when you had to bleed first to be able to get lasix), I would have been much better equipped to handle it (although at that time I was using Ragozin Sheets, not yours). The only thing I feel I can equate it to nowadays is a foreign shipper coming to the US. However, a lot of those are on grass (as opposed to dirt). Anyway, I can view the lasix issue in relation to Orb\'s performance in the Preakness two ways -- (1) ignore all his pre-lasix figures and only look at him after he got lasix (i.e. career starting at GP) or (2) imagine he was an overseas shipper.
If I go with the former, then I view him as more likely to run well in the Preakness. His two year old races had a lot of off poorly designations and he clearly is a better two turn horse than one turn horse (and only got his first taste of two turns simultaneously with first lasix). Also, back in the day, second lasix used to be a very powerful angle (and his sheet is a good example of how that worked)...looking at the big jump up as a second lasix induced jump up, in my view, would mitigate the bounce inducing aspects of the huge amount of development. He would come across as lightly raced and only really showing any resistance level at all in the Derby (the pair up).
If you go with the latter view, you have to see a reaction (and potentially a strong one) coming. Yes, he jumped up and established a new level, but a lot of those euros who come over and do that do regress not that long after getting the jump up. If you look at Orb from this perspective, he looks certain to react (and potentially react enough to get excited). Although it is different, I would look at this as similar to those big jump ups we used to see going from synth to dirt for the first time. They had the big sexy jump up, but an equally startling fall from grace soon thereafter.
A question for you Vito,
This is a come from behind horse, not a front runner. He takes measure and he gets there. It seems to me he runs fast enough to win and that\'s about it. He needs to be strongly ridden to finish once he\'s made the lead as he\'s shown a tendency to wait on horses once he hits the front (never a good thing). And that probably makes him susceptible to another come from behind runner who has enough momentum to get past him before he realizes what\'s coming.
Given that\'s how he rolls, how do you feel this impacts his numbers? Do you think they\'ve gotten to the bottom of him? Do you think he could have run faster in his Alwn1x at Gulfstream? Do you think he could have run faster in his maiden win last year? Could he have run faster before that if he had figured out what this game was all about sooner?
Or put another way, if he hadn\'t goofed off in the stretch of the Derby, could he have run faster? Would you like his line better if he ran a -3 in the Derby?
I don\'t usually like to view an easily won race after the fact and assume the winner could have went faster if asked for more, (especially when it comes to front running horses). As you said, they run what they run. But I think it\'s a fair question to ask about this colt. They did not rush him to get into the Derby. He came in fairly fresh.
I say buyer beware if you\'re going take a dogmatic view of his sheet.
Preakness will be ROTW, and I\'ll probably be discussing Orb somewhere in there.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Socalman2,
>
> I hear you, but boy do I hate that strategy.
>
> Playing against myself with two different wagers,
> facing a 20%+ takeout on the exotics on each one.
>
>
> Make a stand, for or against, and play
> accordingly.
>
> The ONLY way to have a shot to win, is to have an
> opinion and be right enough beat the ridiculously
> high takeouts.
>
> Playing multiple strategies with large take outs
> is a sure way to the poor house. (I could argue
> most roads in this game to the poor house!)
>
> Good luck,
>
> Jim
Jim,
I hear you, too. It is not a great solution. The problem is not a fun problem to have. The only way this could really be advocated is if you happen to have some good prices in the other parts of the horizontals and can get a good price underneath in the Preakness. In that scenario, the winning bets will hopefully be generous enough to overcome the extra betting (remember, this strategy is not a lot different from making an exacta box....in a three horse exacta box, 5 of your bets will automatically be losing...what makes it worthwhile is if the one winner is big enough to justify betting against yourself). I will tell you one thing...if I like some nice priced horses in the other parts of the horizontals, I will be sure to go wide in the Preakness because it would make me want to jump out a window to have boxcars and then lose the bet because I did not spread in the Preakness.
SoCalMan2
MJ-- independent of my opinion of the horse\'s chances, that\'s a pretty big \"Given\" to start that paragraph.
Who\'s Shackleford in this years Preakness? Someone\'s going wire to wire.
My 2 cents say that if JB makes it the ROTW he sees some vulnerability there somewhere... That said, historically horses that run well in the Derby are likely to run well in the Preakness. I think that you will see that here. specifically with Orb. That leaves Oxbow, sort of ... Ran ok, but man they are asking a lot. BTW, every horse I have spoken to has been unable to tell me what they have left in the tank. Barbaro comes to mind, but dont see any Bernardini\'s here. I\'m going to trust the #\'s ... Good luck all !!
I don\'t really think it is. That\'s exactly how he runs. But it\'s really besides the point because I believe there are number of reasons that Orb will not bounce in the Preakness. To sum it up, I believe this because:
1.) he wasn\'t all out in the derby
2.) he wasn\'t rushed to get there and came in fresh
3.) the stable took their time with him at 2, gave him a good foundation and once he figured it all out he hasn\'t lost since
4.) he typically runs only fast enough to win
5.) he\'s pretty well bred for stamina and soundness
6.) his work the other day was phenomenal
7.) if Shug is happy I am happy
That being said, he ran a -2 in the Derby and won by 2-3 lengths. If he runs a 1 in the Preakness and wins by another 2-3 lengths, I think that goes back to my \"Given.\" And that\'s going to make his sheet trickier to read.
MJ,
I hope all is well, it\'s been a bit.
I\'ve made some of the same points to Vito and others for awhile about this horse.
Trainer, connections, not rushed, no lasix at 2, etc...
IMHO the only play is horizontal looking for value in the undercard. I watched the video of his work on DRF; simply awesome and a step above his generation!!!
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank, another way to \"play\" the race is to buy some tickets for the Belmont before Saturday on StubHub.
I am long 12 clubhouse seats as of yesterday. If Orb losses, they are going to be worth 20 cents on the dollar, if he wins, they are worth 3x what I paid!
I\'ll take any kind of action I can get!!!!!
Jim-- take what you get paid per hour, multiply it by the number of hours you will be travelling in traffic to and from Belmont that day, and tell me whether you\'ll still be ahead.
JB,
you can\'t put a price on the adreneline rush you get when the horse is the top of the stretch with a triple crown on the line
didn\'t you read the article from Derby week that called me \"an adreneline junkie?\"
that was pretty much spot on except it might have been better if the word \"legal\" adremeline junkie was added in there but what are you gonna do?
I wake up in the middle of the night sometimes thinking about Durkin\'s line in the Smarty Belmont
\"And Smarty Jones is a quarter mile from racing immortality\" (or something like that)
I was there live for that and I will never forget it. I had goosebumps then and I have goosebumps now just thinking about it. I can only imagine being there live if one actually wins it!
Mjellish.sorry but I am cold and calculating, I don\'t look at how he ran, come from behind or on the lead.I look at the number and how it fits into his pattern.I am not a vet and I don\'t look at easily,handily or whatever.His line is what it is and I have said it several times,we shall see what happens.
I go every year but I am going to be away and I come back on belmont day .It is a great day in the garden room.
I like Mylute for the Preakness off of the 3/4 he ran in the Derby (second fastest race behind Orb) and receiving the \"!\" designation as well. Wynn has him at ~11/1 currently and that works for me.
Listen to Durkin\'s call of the 98 Belmont some time. Forget me being involved, probably the greatest call of all time.
They say a picture\'s worth a thousand words...
Went to HS on one side of the track, my folks house was on the other. Park in FP and take a cab or hoof it through the west end ... You can thank me by buying me a cup of suds at the Travers Bar !!! Oh snot, they took it down ... Ok Jim Dandy ... MF @#!% They ruined that one too ...
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"And Smarty Jones is a quarter mile from racing
> immortality\" (or something like that)
>
> I was there live for that and I will never forget
> it. I had goosebumps then and I have goosebumps
> now just thinking about it. I can only imagine
> being there live if one actually wins it!
...and I got goosebumps in the now razed New Dorp (Staten Island) OTB branch
when I saw Prado, well behind Smarty, start to scrub on Birdstone...
Ritchie only you could take pleasure in a finish like this. Was Allday working for Stronach by then or was it Pat Byrne with Countess Diana and Favorite Trick....sheeeesh!
1997 Belmont Stakes (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7Auvs7LD5I)
Jim,
Read my mind I was on stub last week thinking the very same although I did not hit the purcahse button. I\'ve been to many Belmont\'s including the last Triple Crown as a naive 20 yr old.
My friend and race track companion is a big event person who begged me to take her last year and has been in a steady lobby for this years version. For the very reasons JB states below I could not pull the trigger and drag myself through that mess. After all I\'m almost Richiebe\'s age and getting as grumpy as Miff, whom I miss !!!!
Good luck,
Frank D.
FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> Read my mind I was on stub last week thinking the
> very same although I did not hit the purcahse
> button. I\'ve been to many Belmont\'s including the
> last Triple Crown as a naive 20 yr old.
Uncle Frank:
That was probably you who was blocking my view in 78. Strange that I\'ve lived in
NY for more than 1/2 my life but been to more Derbies than Belmonts. The 78
Belmont was the only one I attended that I got right; I didn\'t have a sniff of
longshots Avatar (Shoemaker, 1975) or Colonial Affair (Krone, 1993).
The way I look at it I can go to Belmont on any day other than Belmont Day (or BC
if it ever returns) and basically have the place to myself; very difficult to go
when there might be 100k plus, with long waits for all conveniences such as
food/drink, restrooms and mutuels.
As Yogi said, no one goes there anymore, its too crowded.
Covel says the Durkin/Smarty call gives him goosebumps. With the help of
Wikipedia, I leave you with the following, from Chic Anderson:
\"It\'s still Affirmed as they come to the quarter pole. He\'s holding on to a head
lead. Alydar is outside of him and challenging that lead. The two are heads apart
and Alydar\'s got a lead! Alydar put a head in front in the middle of the stretch!
Its Alydar and Affirmed battling back along the inside! WE\'LL TEST THESE TWO TO
THE WIRE! Affirmed under a left hand whip! Alydar on the outside driving! Affirmed
and Alydar heads apart. Affirmed\'s got a nose in front as they come to the wire!\"
Two great champions stirrup to stirrup, or as Dan Jenkins once said, \"So close
they could fart in the same Coke bottle\"
What makes this game great is that finishes like that happen a few times a day at
racetracks all over the world, and if you have some skin in the game, it doesn\'t
matter if the horses involved are champion grade or what the erstwhile Miff liked
to call \"slow rats\".
If I may be so bold as to reply. I want to acknowledge your early post regarding Orb as the real deal. I believe Orb is the real deal for all of the reasons so many have already pointed out. If he is a true champion, the post should stop him, but given the draw, I think it\'s going to be a bit more of a jockeys\' race now. We have all seen a worthy horse get boxed in and steered around as they keep the pace down, allowing a lesser horse to sprint away at an opportune moment. The race, as any race, could be won or lost in the first sixteenth. IMHO, victory in the Preakness can get away from you really quick. (Animal Kingdom). I don't have stats on this, but far from moving too soon, I always fear the worthy will move too late in the Preakness. It has been said many times, the finish line comes up quick in this race. Or getting so far back there is just too much left to do. Rosario\'s hot golden timing and touch has got to be spot on for this one. So tomorrow I'm going to bet Orb...and probably whatever horse Mike Smith is on underneath. We all just want a clean fair race. As for IMLD, to the extent of my ability to read the figs, I agree his numbers look impressive. But I am not impressed with how he achieved them. Specifically I mean, who did he beat? Shanghai Bobby, who everyone pretty much agrees is an outstanding sprinter/miler perhaps at best, not a classic horse. Also, I get get the gist reading here, that horses whose success has been limited to Fla., aren't too highly regarded. He's been spanked a few times by rivals in here. And something in my gut just doesn't ring true about him. I see questions marks all over. I don't expect him to be in the picture by the sixteenth pole, if he doesn't wilt sooner.
Also, I realize that the thousands and thousands of racing fans looking for a $2 keepsake will skew the odds tomorrow. But this is where I look forward to the Belmont. While everyone gets set to bail on him in the Belmont the second he crosses the finish line first at Pimlico, I am gonna tie on tighter than ever. Horizontals, verticals, diagonals, I will be all over him from top to bottom and all around, too, because at that point, that's the last place I will be looking for him to bounce. I have no numbers to base that on. It is not emotional investment speaking. That is my gut sense, all things considered. (I guess I'm hanging out flapping in the wind now.) And if I am right, major serious kudos to the connections, and the horse himself, and I will have a $2 keepsake from Pimlico.
I apologize for not sticking strictly to the subject of figs and fig making. On a Wednesay, this would be a race for me to walk away from, that much I understand. From here on out, I will try to stick more strictly to the subject of figs. Thanks for your patience. This is a busy time for \'cappers everywhere, I don\'t expect a reply. I just hope my thoughts haven\'t wasted your time.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> With NI out, I don\'t see any of the KD returnees
> as viable options. Out of all of them, I think
> Oxbow is the most likely to run well as he was the
> only horse in the lead pack besides NI to run on
> after the speed collapsed last weekend. Even at
> that, the best I could see him doing is moving
> forward from his last to a 3. Race looks like a
> pass.
Probably should have placed a saver win bet on him anyway! I passed.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Probably should have placed a saver win bet on him
> anyway! I passed.
My long-gone gambling mentor once intoned, \"If
you don\'t occasionally pass on a winner, you are
probably playing too many races.\"
If nothing else, it confirms that your handicapping
is pretty sharp at the moment.