Golden Ticket, Authenticity, Take Charge Indy all out of the routes on 3/30 GP (DOJ huge number day). The last two paired their previous figure that day, if you make their last race worse they look much worse going into this weekend.
If the big figure pairs, we are going to be in for some show.
That\'s not going to happen. Question is how far she goes back, and it\'s a guessing game. But if she bounces 5 it would STILL be a show, unless she\'s very wide.
JB thanks for your take. You took a lot of crap for those GP figs.
Randy said he\'s going to lead with our DOJ figure on the broadcast so damn good thing...
Though now people watching will expect another.
I understand nobody pays a mortgage at 8-5 (9 minutes to post)... but how in the world is D of J not 1-2? Rachel went of 1-5 in the Oaks after winning a dinky prep at Oaklawn and the FG Oaks.
One of those rare gifts.. Don\'t fall off Johnny V.
Never wanna see Borel again bitch about someone else aggressive move. His gate move was criminal. He should get punched in the nose.
Horse was empty after the pinch. With what looks like a mediocre time, Julia was horrific.
Any jockey who goes into the race with a pre-emptive plan to smash the favorite out of the gate, should be suspended for a minimum of 15 days. If Churchill Downs doesn\'t come down on him, that\'s a disgrace. Not holding my breath.
I thought the favorite ran remarkable in defeat.
He did the same thing years ago to Lookin for Lucky - your correct it was done on purpose - But Churchill has never had a DQ on these days since Dancer\'s Image!
The winner didn\'t have a very smooth start either.
She ran Dynamite P-Dub.
Those with replays on TwinsSpires can see the head-on of the start at the 3:04 mark of the replay. Borel takes a left turn out of the gate and makes absolutely no attempt whatsoever to ever yank his horse back to the right. He moves inward about 3 or 4 paths and then straightens. Absolutely criminal.
Between him and the stunt Albarado pulled on the 9 horse in the Alysheba wiping out more than half the field, there had better be some suspensions handed out if there is any integrity left in this game. I\'m not trying to make an excuse for DOJ or saying that would have made a difference, but I never want a race to be lost this way.
I realize you bet the favorite but it does not excuse your pitiful prattle Sekrah. Not surprised a few here with a similar lack of handicapping grasp have piled on.
Nevertheless your accusation that he had a \"pre-emptive plan to smash the favorite\" should be addressed to Calvin himself.
I make it 6-5 someone will get punched.
bbb
If you don\'t think Calvin intentionally slammed DOJ, then you sir, are an naive fool. And BTW, I would snap that little squirrel in two if we ever got into it.
Hes pretty big for a jock
If you had been around here for any time, you would see that sekrah is one of the most astute handicappers around. He is definitely not a chalk player. He has made some brave calls, in public, on multiple occasions. I don\'t know why this has turned into pile onto TG week, but I will take the TG data and the people who frequent this board over many others. If you don\'t like it, leave.
Bravo! Sekrah has made some great picks public!
Sek,
Its possible, but you don\'t know for sure. I\'m not saying you\'re wrong either.
Everyone, how about a little civility?? Yes, coming from me of all people.
If this horse, the fastest horse in TG history, a horse with an 8 point leeway for jock screwup, another jock shutting us off, horse just stumbling and losing 4 at the start(she broke fine, BTW, but got shut off AFTER the start), we still win this race by 1-4 lenghths. Off that neg 8, she clearly bounced to the moon. I\'d be surprised by anything faster than a zero on the part of the winner, which means DOJ bounced about 9 points.
Wise Dan will win his race easily. Normandie Invasion will win the Derby at 8-1 or higher, wet track, fast track.
Public picks. Yep. Winners. Yep.
But that doesn\'t take away from the stupidity on this thread.
Of course he was trying to get over Julia for position. And he should be suspended.
But it wasn\'t a kamikaze mission to stop her from winning
Just a reckless ride. Which is certainly bad
Why do stewards hand out very questionable DQs for incidental bumping down the stretch which, in most cases, does not have an impact on the finish of the race. However, horses come out of the gate and wipe out part of the field and there is very rarely a DQ. Both incidences today were egregious and warranted a DQ.
Playing the devils advocate here in an effort to understand:
I have had a pain in the neck about the 3/30 figs at GP. I think the route figs on Florida Derby day might be too fast by about 2 points.
Still, the horses you mention, one of whom was a clear bet (Authenticity) with adjusted figs, and another a good bet (TCI) would still be no surprise to have won today as their adjusted figs (make the last fig a 2 instead of a zero) are still in line with an anticipated winning effort today.
If I am right about the 3/30 figs, then I have no other worries about NI winning tomorrow. Other than being worried that Chad Brown\'s record at CD was troublesome, he\'s red hot now.
If you add 2 to those (or Golden Ticket yesterday) they look much worse. Not impossible but a Loy worse.
sorry mo, don\'t think so, can\'t see wise dan at all
any particular reason?
Roger that 58
He made a very ignorant accusation.
Not one competent capper would agree with him.
bbb
A very soft course on very short rest? bbb
Ok, thanks very much boss!
I thought she was a rare betting opportunity (fastest horse in history).... at that price.(8-5). Even though I lost a large bet here, I was NOT surprised by the winner. Had I been paying closer attention to the tote, I could have easily saved my ass with a small win bet.
I look forward to the final figs for this race. She had to bounce 9-10 points. I\'m booking props now..................
Handled yielding fine, always runs a neg fig, one horse to his outside at the break - perfect gate position - no neg fig runners here if I recall. Was not hard used in last. Jock lucks out retaining mount on HOY which helps the price a little. Even money is a square price on this one in this situation, but I love NI and the double is going to pay $40.00 or more. It\'s not every day you can come up with a cold punch double on the reigning HOY and the most likely winner of the KY Derby(IMO) at a likely 20-1 or possibly better payoff. Last time I passed an opp like this I lost.....with a lousy $50.00 investment - Skip Away - Blue Grass - Wood exacta parlay with Ark Derby winner - some thing like 13 grand...... oh forget it........
How can you equate how much she bounced accurately, or if she bounced at all? I think its pretty evident she was best in there, how much the best we will never know. She ran remarkably well in defeat.
All that said, that is why we run the races. No matter what any figure says they are never sure things. Whether it be a T-graph, or any other number, its just a rough gauge based on another man\'s opinion (given figure maker). The human/animal variables far supersede any math equation in relation to a horse race.
You made a good bet if 3/2 was your cut line on that filly. Tough trip, you\'ll have 900 races to bet tomorrow. Good luck
The winner got knocked around at the start also. Far from a clean break. If they both break cleanly, good chance the result is the same.
Winner did take some major contact, she ran super as well, PA bred to boot. The parity in that race on paper (IMO) was outstanding. That was truly a great betting race if you didn\'t subscribe to DOJ being automatic. Great selection picking the winner in there.
Byk apparently agrees. Talking to Pletcher this morning about Authenticity, he remarked that her performance validates the Florida Derby day figures some had questioned. He certainly wasn\'t speaking of Beyers.