Something to think about at the Holiday table for those of you that have to spend it with unwelcomed family members such as your in-laws.
The race is terrific and much value looms, in my opinion. The race features the return of such notables as BUDDY GILL, EYE OF THE TIGER, BLAZONRY, and DOMESTIC DISPUTE. Now add MIDAS EYES, POSSE, and ZAVATA to the mix and you have perhaps the best 3yo race of the year.
Any opinions out there???
Good Luck and Happy Holidays,
Joe B.
There is always a real good 2YO maiden race on that card and I\'m sure there will be a good 2YO 1X.
(Last year Drysdale ran that Minister horse (??) he had and in the 1X Scrimshaw dusted Ghostzapper at 1-5)
The only year they didn\'t have a maiden race was when Crafty CT entered and everyone ducked him.
Always an exciting card to kick the season off with.
The first Saturday in May is sooner than you think, time to go back to work looking for THE ONE.
Unless you think you already know who that is.
It\'s a great race. It\'s a darn shame Cajun Beat\'s handlers changed plans and didn\'t go out there. It would have made it even better and perhaps put him over the top for the sprinter of the year title had he won.
Hey CH,
You must have bet Cajun Beat on BC Day because you certainly are in his camp. If you did good for you.
How about Shake You Down for the Sprinter Title. All he does is run in 6 furlong Stakes Races and usually wins.
If its the claimer thing then thats not a fair shake because I can\'t get the memory of the Cajun Beat I saw down here at Gulfstream last spring out of my mind. That was not a very good horse
CH--
CAJUN BEAT would have certainly made it a version of a BC sprint for 3yos only.
I printed out the TG sheets for the race earlier today and I\'m still banging my head.
Hopefully TGAB, who is on fire right now, can shed some holiday light on this race.
Joe B.
Silver,
>You must have bet Cajun Beat on BC Day because you certainly are in his camp. If you did good for you.<
I did. It was my only winner for the day, but it was more than enough at that price.
:-)
>How about Shake You Down for the Sprinter Title. All he does is run in 6 furlong Stakes Races and usually wins<
I would like him better if had beaten top quality horses a few times. A lot of his wins came with loose leads, against cheaper, etc.... Had he won the DeFrancis certainly.
Actually right now I would probably vote for Aldebaron because his overall record at 7F was spectacular. Not winning at 6F is a knock, but they all have a knock.
Cajun Beat only got good late in the year and Congaree might be best of all (certainly at 7F), but he only had that one sprint where he beat Aldebaron easily.
It\'s a tough category. I guess it comes down to what you value.
CH wrote,
\"I would like him better if had beaten top quality horses a few times. A lot of his wins came with loose leads, against cheaper, etc.... Had he won the DeFrancis certainly.\"
You are correct in this assessment however after Aldeberan and Congaree what else was there for him to beat. Also the one time he did face Aldeberan he did beat him, but Aldeberan had an excuse that day....the race was at 6 furlongs. You see what I mean.
The problem in general as I see it is that we are starting to call horses who run only 7 furlongs or a Mile Sprinters and horses who run a Mile or a Mile and 1/8th Routers.
Where is the difference?
I\'m not so sure that ALDEBAREN lost due to the 6f distance as opposed to the size of the field.
That\'s not an excuse for him, it\'s just a possible explanation. Sprinters who close from far off are at the mercy of both pace and field size, unless they get a lucky trip.
If they ran the BC sprint at 7f would we then consider ALDEBAREN the best sprinter in the country even if he lost?
Happy holidays,
joe B.
Silver,
I\'ve always considered 6F-7F as sprints.
Naturally, I would prefer that the champion be able to handle both, but we don\'t seem to have that option this year now that CB won\'t run in the Malibu.
I think you could also make the case that some of the leading 6F horses like SYD would be in trouble at 7F.
That\'s what makes this category so interesting to me. I have a preference, but no conviction at all.
jbelfior,
I agree. The size of the field was and often is a factor for those deep closers like Aldebaron.
What I really wonder is how Congaree would have done at 6F.
I believe he is better than all of them on pure ability, but the 6F may have also given him some fits. He might have gotten hung wider than usual and then had to kick after chasing a pace that was a lot quicker than he\'s used to. A lot of decent speedy milers have come up empty in the sprint despite good speed figures coming in. Congaree is a lot like Precisionist though. It would have been interesting.
Post Edited (12-23-03 16:05)
Joe B., you flatter me. As the Aqu analysis in the Red Board Room shows, there\'s been some pyrotechnics lately but no 4 or 5 alarm days.
We encourage one and all to learn how to use the TG data so they can take late changes into account.
To that end and as a gesture of thanks, all TG online products are gratis from Boxing Day through New Year\'s Eve.
I\'ll take a look at the Malibu but I\'m not going to comment on it until later this evening. With hope we\'ll get Nick involved as well. He does the Scal analysis.
By post position, here\'s my rundown on the Malibu Stakes at SA on 12/26/3.
1. Midas Eyes (119) (3-1)--is the fastest horse and the one to beat. Didn\'t like the effort two back, the BC Sprint at SA, but his last was better and he has better to run back to. Even a repeat from the rail puts him in this. Somewhat positive read.
2. Baltic Heights (115) (15-1)--lightly raced, is one of the slowest horses in here. His last, a slight new top, augurs well, despite slight pattern. Has 10 weeks into this, light weight, and his most inside post yet. 15 of 17 Harty runners in the last 90 days have either paired or run a new top. I think a new top is coming here but there\'s a high probability that it won\'t be good enough. A wet track would help. Positive read, but slow.
3. Watchem Smokey (119) (3-1)--another Frankel runner and part of an entry with Midas Eyes above. Frankel got him two back, put him on grass and lost for the first time. The return to dirt last out yielded a slight new top, a good sign. Likely to save ground, but needs a new top to win. He could run it. Positive read, but obviously the slower of the two.
4. Blazonry (117) (6-1)--ran a big one last out in May and it hurt. Prefers dirt. Working up a storm for a trainer that can win off long layoffs but does better 2nd off the layoff. Smith sticks. May lose ground with stalker, off the pace running style. Fast enough to contend, but I\'m inclined to think his best is NOT coming today, although first time 4yos can always pop Neutral read.
5. Marino Marini (115) (20-1)--makes his first dirt start against some tigers. His turf figures are good but not fast enough to compete with these although pedigree-wise, he\'s better suited for dirt. Has to improve to be a factor. Negative read.
6. Domestic Dispute (117) (20-1)--bounced in the Derby and his two subsequent starts were worse. Has had time off since his last but a pair up is about the best one can expect and that ain\'t going to get it done. Negative read.
7. Buddy Gil (121) (6-1)--also bounced in the Derby, not too badly, after three big efforts, including a top in SA Derby fast enough to compete here. Handicapped by the high weight and post, somewhat. Working well for a hot trainer that does well off extended layoffs. Contender. Neutral to positive read.
8. Eye Of The Tiger (117) (10-1)--sports a very solid line and makes his first start in over three months for a trainer who can win in this spot. Ground loss looms. Has to improve to contend. Strong pattern. Positive read. Long shot.
9. Special Rate (117) (15-1)--ran his top second time out this spring, reacted, laid off, subsequently paired up twice but hasn\'t surpassed the top. The slowest of the three Frankel horses, this guy should have run better in either of his last two dirt races. Ground loss likely. Slow. Negative read.
10. Posse (119) (4-1)--has been pounding out figures all year long and finally got over the hump last time out. He will react. The question is how much? Negative read.
11. Southern Image (115) (15-1)--obviously has physical problems. This trainer\'s charges have paired or run new tops at a 70% clip in the last 90 days. But another 4 won\'t do it. The low weight is offset by the potential ground loss. Negative read.
12. Toccet (115) (15-1)--ships cross-country, hot to cold, after a pair of tops and six races since mid-August. A bounce is very likely. Negative read.
13. Zavata (117) (8-1)--got hurt by his top in early August and hasn\'t given any indication that he\'s recovered. Time always helps which means he may run better today but the outside post works against him. His second best won\'t do. Negative read.
One point I didn\'t mention above but bears stating is the first time 4yo factor. Essentially these horses, 5 days is close enough, are first time 4yos. Often first time 4yos run new tops after layoffs, especially under the tutelege of layoff conditioners.
Horses with post positions 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 and 8 are the positive reads. Horses 2, 4, 7 and 8 are the eligible 1st time 4yos among these.
Comments?
First of all, just want to say its been a year or two since my last post and I\'ve missed this board. Law School ended up taking up a bit more time than I\'d hoped for...
Re the Malibu:
1. Midas Eyes -- What strikes me most about the pattern is that he seems to be going good race - bad race with both the good and bad races regressing as the year has gone on. Off a (sub-par) good race, I\'d expect an especially poor performance -- maybe not another 5, but that certainly seems to be in the realm of belief.
2. Baltic Heights -- Love this horse. Huge move last time with blinkers off and has had plenty of time to develop since then. Got a feeling Harty has this one sitting on go.
3. Watchem Smokey -- Doesn\'t seem to be improving but is consistent and thus an obvious toss-in on the bottom of exotics.
4. Blazonry -- Didn\'t fire his best shot off the last layoff and it isn\'t Walsh\'s speciality. Still respect any horse who can toss a 0 at 7 furlongs. Gotta use if you\'re spreading.
5. Marino Marini -- Tough to toss anything O\'Neill leads over these days and gotta think the Storm Cat (and Waquoit) offspring prefer dirt to turf but he seems a little too slow regardless.
6. Domestic Dispute -- Possibly the worst purchase in the history of horse racing. When Baffert gives up on a Derby prospect, you can book it being done. Unfortunately, that purchaser is the dad of a friend so I\'ll be cheering if he wins, but I won\'t have a dime on him. Easy toss.
7. Buddy Gil -- Never fully bought into this horse and have lost plenty of money taking a stand against him. No reason to stop now, though I\'ve been wrong more than I\'ve been right with him. Just a note, Mullins is clearly great but his last Derby horse, Lusty Latin, has not been the same since returning from a layoff. Remains to be seen if the lifelong claiming trainer can really maintain a G1 quality animal over an extended campaign.
8. Eye of the Tiger -- Gotta use him underneath if you\'re using Watchem Smokey. As far as I can tell, they\'re the same horse.
9. Special Rate -- Maybe Bobby thinks he can pull another Mizzen Mast going turf-to-dirt with this one. If he does, I\'ll tip my cap but I can\'t play him with his numbers.
10. Posse -- Fairly consistent all year and then popped a big one in the slop. He hasn\'t run over his pre-existing tops in the slop before so the improvement could be real. On the other hand, it might cause a fairly big bounce if it is real improvement and not just preference for the slop. Gut feeling is that he won\'t repeat but still has to be used for a piece.
11. Southern Image -- Don\'t see this horse improving til he can put together two races in a row. Also don\'t like the habit of getting off slowly -- that could cause real problems in a field this size. Maybe in the bottom rung of the super.
12. Toccet -- Another one I\'ve never liked. On the other hand, tossing the BC race, it looks like he 0-2-X\'ed and then came back with a pair of tops. His races are sure clumping up but that when he did his best running last year. Nevertheles, tough to back with confidence on the ship and coming back for third time in 6 weeks.
13. Zavata -- Hasn\'t shown much affinity for this strip and Biancone, who is 0-17 with blinks-on, putting on the hood today smacks of desperation. Talented enough on his best day but that seems to come about once a year and its already happened this year. Gotta take a stand against.
TGAB/DAN--
Solid analysis by both of you.
TGAB--You confirmed my play in this. I like EYE OF THE TIGER and will key him with several of the contenders such as MIDAS EYES.
(Thanks for taking the time out to do this.)
I thought that the route races he ran in this summer dulled his speed for the KINGS BISHOP (which was Travers Day and one of the most wicked speed biases I have ever seen up there.)
Despite an in and out horror trip after getting off a step slow, he lost by only 3 lenghths. His \"3\" performance rating is quite impressive when you consider what he was up against that day.
Perhaps a stronger 3yo returns on Friday, a 3yo that has already indicated enough class to outrun his AMERICAN CHANCE pedigree. I\'m just hoping that Hollendorfer is not prepping for the longer races which I think is Mullins\' intentions with BUDDY GILL.
Happy Holidays to all and may all the photos go your way,
Joe B.
>One point I didn\'t mention above but bears stating is the first time 4yo factor. Essentially these horses, 5 days is close enough, are first time 4yos. Often first time 4yos run new tops after layoffs, especially under the tutelege of layoff conditioners. <
Good point. I agree.
I\'m leaning more towards Midas Eyes, Posse, and Blazonry though. They are primarily sprinters and it\'s their big chance to get a Grade I.
It would not shock me in the least if Buddy Gil, Eye of the Tiger, or a few others etc... moved forward enormously during 2004, but I am more inclined to think that the Malibu is not their primary objective. They seem more suited to routing and that\'s where the big money is. IN fact, if either wins today, I would consider it a sign of \"huge\" potential later in the year.
I suspect the race will not be bettable, but it sure will be a fun one to watch.
I dont know how to play with \"The Sheets\", but watching the BC Sprint over and over I have become quite impressed with Posse.
If he can duplicate that effort, they\'re running for (distant) second.
And the fact he is going to stud after this race means its all or nothing. He has never won a GR 1. They\'re very motivated to win this.
Post Edited (12-26-03 09:36)
Unfortunately, Baltic Heights has already been scratched. The reason I checked was the suspicion & hope that Frankel will scratch half of the entry & that the half will be Midas Eyes. That would make the race even more wide open, & given the reports that Smokey had a quarter crack before his last race, it would be a lot easier to take a strong stand against him than it will be against his stablemate. I\'m not sure I follow the comment that Blazonry didn\'t fire his best shot off the last layoff, assuming the reference is to the 7 mo. period between his last race in Europe & the 4/2 race at SA, as I thought the 4.5 was a significant new top, particularly given that he was also racing on a new surface in a new country in a new direction for new connections. And although I am not familiar enough with trainer Walsh to assess whether or not layoffs are her speciality, the stats from a limited sample say that more than 31% run new tops when the last start was 90 days or more. The horse is lightly raced & has a lot of upside, seems to me to be favored by the likely pace scenario, & has already run a number at this specialist distance which in the vicinity of what I\'m guessing it will take to win this. I\'m not sure I\'d assess his chances of winning as high as 6-1, but the closer he is to 10-1 the more I\'m interested.
As if retirement of the horse is not enough incentive, with only 5 days to go Asmussen is 2 behind Lake in total wins nationwide, & Posse in his last race ran a number which is fast enough to win this. However, he did so on a track he loves against a small & not particularly deep field, & in addition to the possibility that he moves up on an off track,it\'s hard to shake the image of him dramatically shortening stride in the late stages of the Riva Ridge. He obviously might win, but 4-1 seems very short to me in this much deeper field.
If you haven\'t figured it out already, you\'re not going to be able to watch or wager on this one unless you\'re at a track or OTB and/or have an Xpress bet acct. Magna is no longer accepting bets on its tracks from other acct wagering services, & has installed a monthly fee to provide video streaming of its races to those who either do not have an Xpress Bet acct or live in a state(NJ&Texas,among others)where it is impossible to open one.
Mall, According to this article: http://drf.com/news/article/52332.html Youbet will continue showing and accepting bets online for Santa Anita races and at other California Magna tracks. ASFUFH