KEE 9th 4/26/2013-Elkhorn
I\'m not looking at the sheets for this race but will someone who figured this one out, clue me in. Or do I have to wait till tomorrow to get the analysis to see once again how sharp TG is or....data anomaly
To the simple minds, horse cannot beat 50K claimers @GP, rest him, add Rosario magic (which doesn\'t make them run faster just longer) come back in G2 @ 1.5m against good field and ROMP at Maker discounted 8/1.
Who is Rosario\'s agent - wow!
You\'re looking at the wrong part of the program. Rosario\'s riding great but he rode him the last two times as well. We\'ll see what the figure is but I\'m pretty sure he just ran a wee bit faster for Maker at Keeneland today to blow that field away than in his previous starts. At age six.
But Maker\'s not using something because they would have caught him.
Not that I\'m defending anybody, but Ioya Bigtime went out and set pedestrian fractions of :26, :52 and inexplicably stopped at the top of the stretch. The top 4 were pretty much running 2-3-4-5 all of the way around the course. All of the other logical contenders on paper were far back and all ran an X.
I\'ve seen many runnings of the Elkhorn Stakes over the years and this wasn\'t necessarily the strongest renewal of the race.
Perhaps, all of the jocks on the major contenders were a bit too arrogant early on, keeping their horses reserved, while keeping in mind the results of the previous day\'s Bewitch S. where ALL of the superfecta came from far back early.
I did not use the horse at all.
Still makes you wonder.....
Of course Maker is using something.
Cannot compete unless one is using something.
To believe otherwise is sheer folly.
Who won the race after the Elkhorn? The final race of the meeting?
That\'s a rhetorical question.....
Upon closer inspection I see he also ran well when marathoning in the John\'s Call back in 2011. Thanks.
If he had won a blanket finish, which is the way the race figured, that would be one thing. But that ain\'t what happened. He jumped out of his skin relative to what he was doing in Florida.
I know it takes time and I\'m not asking for it today or next week but it sure would be interesting to see every Maker horse at KEE and the figures they ran compared to previous races. I saw quite a few and all i can say is Wow. some serious jump ups were evident. might be the most dominant training feat ever. Certainly the most dominant owner feat ever.
michael
Remind me after the Derby.
Dark Cove is a great looking horse with a powerful stride, i bet on him on March 23 of last year at GP and he went off 6-5, got a great trip, and couldnt perform and couldnt hit the board.
So today, i remember that race and think \"is he really going to beat these if he can\'t hit the board at Gulf on March 23, 2012\"?
Destroyed the field going a mile and a half, he might have won by 20 if the race was a mile and 5/8ths.
Hard to figure.
Did not bet this race nor purchase the Tg data but will surmise that Dark Cove either paired or moved forward no more than a point. This was a very weak field in terms of recent form with nine of the other ten either taking a quantum jump in class or being off the board in their last. In his last, admittedly in a claimer, Dark Cove came his last half mile faster than these had ever run.
As for Maker he took this horse from McPeek exactly a year to the day ago for $50K, then put him on the shelf for EIGHT months. Would opine the score here is:
Horsemanship one drugs zero
bbb
The key point of that post involves not using TG data and makes exactly my point. Your conclusion can be no better than your info/premises.
Longhunter, 8th at Belmont, first Maker/Ramsey off the claim for 16k, goes 1:07 3/5 on the grass.
Clearly not using something, if he was they would have caught him already.
J.B. - IF you are correct these people are making a fool of you and everyone else. If you are not correct you are just angry that you can\'t explain why these horses are jumping up.
Why not just concentrate on your job and let the authorities do their regulatory job.
Do you really think all the trainer\'s who are losing would allow a magic potion to put them out of business?
All I would do is hire an under-cover employee to work for them for 6 months to gather their secrets.
You are really becoming obsessed with this topic. IMO!
HR-- Unlike with Sight I don\'t have to be concerned about people putting a lot of weight in what you say, so I\'ll let it go by.
\"What, me worry\"?--- Alfred E. Neumann
I truly believe that you have no opinion, because your opinion is absurd.You can see these jump ups like anyone else that has access to figures.All you are doing is trying to incite a riot and at that you are doing a good job.YOu are talking to someone who has looked at thousands of numbers and telling him he doesn\'t know what he is looking at.You are not fooling this guy.Maker is just the latest in a long line of guys, they can\'t catch.
Jerry What Supreme Arrogance - As the Robber-Barron\'s said before their fall - \"Let the Public be Damned\"!
The interesting thing about this horse is that he had good back turf numbers, but here is the thing that tells the tale.He had a spacey line which means he WAS a hurt horse,maker, great horseman that he is not only got him back to his old self but probably got a new top out of him.Terrific,just terrific.
What your actually saying is that Sight was making you look foolish because she has credibility.
You also have delusions of Grandeur in thinking so many important people read what\'s on this board. All the serious debate takes place each day on TDN.
I\'ll quote something Len Friedman told me years ago about you - You are a frustrated gambler who desperately wants to be a big player in this game.
It\'s sad to see you spending so much time engaging on this board day and night instead of improving your product.
A guy like Mike Maker works his ass off 18 hours a day - he pointed for that meet and had many drop-downs so Ramsey could win the title again.
Guys like Ramsey and TAP\'s clients can buy and sell you all day - They are laughing all the way to the bank while you and your Kool-Aid drinker\'s slowly go broke!
Vito-- If you mean the one today, yes he had good back figures. But this is going to come up a new top on anyone\'s figures. And Maker is one of the few move-up guys to be able to do that on turf. Mullins was another for a while, but there aren\'t many.
The point I am making is that he took a horse who was off form and got a new top out of him, and yes you are right,most \"GREAT Trainers\" don\'t move them up on the turf.
HR-- now my feelings are hurt and it\'s all your fault.
It\'s funny, years ago there was a gal teller at GP Friedman used to... well, date,and she said he told her I was a genius. Thanks for straightening me out.
Jerry not many trainers/owners would have misfired here.
Longhunter is a multiple stakes winner on the grass with a Curragh score in the Blenheim . In short, the Halling gelding goes from a world class conditioner to a very poor one and the inevitable slide begins.
Stake-nowhere
Stake- beat two
3X- seventh
40K nowhere
25K nowhere
Then a 100 day layoff before the Keeneland run April 6th at seven furlongs. The horse runs off with Robbie opening a four length lead against 16K stock. But the horse does not act on anything other than turf and is fit enough for much shorter.
Maker wins the shake, shortens up, goes green with Ramon and even the usually dense NY bettors find this one.
Maker runs his horses down peoples throats. He is very personable, works his ass off and kmows who the idiots are. He claims from them and runs them as cheap as he can. One race this Keeneland meet he ran a horse and there were SEVENTEEN claim slips in the box. I know this race went fast but he figured major league tough to beat.
bbb
Yup, that\'s it. I\'m gonna throw away the figures.
For laughs, anyone have Makers stats at Kee for the 5 years preceding this one?
I don\'t have the standings back to 2008 (Maker won the Fall 2008 training title so he probably had a high percentage that meet) but in the prior five meetings he\'s been remarkably consistent.
Fall 2010: 7/47, 15%
Spring 2011: 7/44, 15%
Fall 2011: 6/37, 16%
Spring 2012: 6/42, 14%
Fall 2012: 10/60, 17%
then
Spring 2013: 25/76, 33%
You cannot take those stats at face value - this meet they were a large number of drop-downs that were heavy favorites.
He just learned how to horse husband. Late bloomer.
When the Derby stuff dies down I\'ll run his Kee starters. I\'m guessing the new/paired tops comes in over 50%. Which has nothing to do with who they run against.
You know High Roller what Bill Parcells (horse owner himself) says \"you are what your record says you are\".
As far as all those dropdowns go.....seems to me that if you are devaluing your clients assets (even if its at the suggestion of the client) you shouldnt have to work 18 hours a day to win. I know the guy outworks everyone according to you, but any halfway competent trainer can win running 40s for 20 or 20s for 10.
high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You cannot take those stats at face value - this
> meet they were a large number of drop-downs that
> were heavy favorites.
He asked for the stats, I gave him the stats. Since you\'re obviously at the barn watching him work 18 hours a day nursing all these horses to the peak of fitness, you can object all you want.
I don\'t thing you are understanding this.When he was winning at 15% he worked 9 hours a day,now he is at 30% working 18 hours a day.It\'s really a math thing.
So anyway, Dark Cove ran a 0 1/2. Best previous number over two years was a 3, and he\'s a 6yo.
I normally look at trainers, not owners, since we don\'t keep owners in the data base, and I have trainers on the sheets when I do a day, so I look over when I see a jump up. But since this conversation began I noticed an unlikely jumpup for a Ramsey horse trained by Catalano at Keeneland Friday-- Catalano got his share when he was training for Calabrese, but has not since then, as far as I can tell. If someone wants to email me a list of Ramsey starters at the Kee meet, regardless of trainer, and a list of Maker starters not for Ramsey, I would be interested in running that as well as the Maker overall runners. There\'s some chance this is owner specific, not trainer. Wouldn\'t be the first time.
Was just looking at the Redboard from Sat night (keep in mind this is before Sat races), it shows Maker/Rosario have teamed up 59 times, winning 36% and a 2.16 ROI
But the best part is 52PERCENT !!!!! OF THOSE WERE NEW TOPS and another 26% were pairs. Last 90 days you are showing Maker overall 40% NEW TOPS 25% pairs
So you are saying this horse a 6yr old ran a lifetime 3 point new top and Maker had him 3 weeks.There really is nothing left to say.One more thing IT IS the owners who are doing this and not the trainers.The owners have to know.They both know.
Wasnt the horse strangled coming to the wire and probably could have run faster if the jock asked him for his life?
It got to the point at GP where I was singling Ramsey/Maker. But in a casual conversation he was telling anyone that would listen that he (Ramsey) was winning twice! By claiming, then running them a tad below in class but betting quite good amounts. Plus he could win owners title...made sense to me in an awkward way. He won with several trainers, including Wes Ward.
The 40% new tops over the last 90 days for Maker is on a sample of 103 starts on last Sat sheets. Can you remember any other trainer who has ever shown a 40% new top rate over at least a 100 start sample space?
I almost never look at that stat. I have promised Richiebee for years I would take a look at the methodology we use to produce that to see if it\'s accurate, one of these days...
I don\'t remember whether we only use horses that have already made X starts for that trainer, or how many starts the horse has to have in its life, or how we do it in general. But certainly you can look at it relative to itself-- you probably have a better idea what a big percentage is than I do.
All trainers win for Calabrese it appears. Don\'t know why. As for Maker - check this race out at CD the last on Saturday. Punctual Jeff was a 10 start maiden. Closed into a 49.4 and 114.4 pace. I\'m sorry did I say \"closed\" that is inaccurate. He blasted off in mid stretch. Guess he really liked that CD turf course.
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing-wagering/toteboard/2013-04-27/11
Jerry do not want to get long-winded Derby week about this and to be frank i made a compelling case that Dark Cove would improve immensely on another thread.
Yet in the overall scope Ramsey is very astute and spends money. When any of his trainers claim one they immediately take a blood test. The $50 or so results are back in a day and during that time the horse gets a complete going over.
Many times they are sent to the hyperbaric chamber. As far as i know there are only two in KY. One is at Winstar and Elliott can tell you way more than i can. The other is about five minutes from Keenland and the Ramsey vans are frequent visitors.
The pure oxygen treatment can provide immediate relief for animals suffering from chronic joint inflamation and/ or soft tissue injury. I am told treatments are about $400 and can have a similar impact on a horse that Lasix has on a bleeder. Few outfits use them. bbb
I know a fair amount about hyperbaric chambers and while they can help with problems they dont make horses faster.
You made a less than compelling case about why he would WIN a lot of races, and no case as to why his horses would get FASTER just because they were facing weaker competition (even if we accepted that a lower claiming price means that automatically). Don\'t know if you use our data or not, but when we post sheets for these horses you can explain to me how the jumpups are a result of who they ran against.
Hello Michael,
Congrats on winning a contest last year.
As for Punctual Jeff I see nothing noteworthy. His prior four races indicated he would fly late and would not be a maiden much longer. In order;
2/23/12 Jeff\" was a tough trip 2nd with a huge late rally
5/27/12 Bel Another huge late rally to get third money as the favorite
2/22/13 GP big rally third.
4/5/13 GP A solid third behind a favored entry. The horse that ran second on that closing day card also ran at Churchill Saturday night breaking his maiden at thirteen to ten an hour before Jeff\" broke his. bbb
\"hyperbaric chambers and while they can help with problems they dont make horses faster\"
Are you saying that you would not expect a horse that is running with pain to run faster when the pain is removed? Seems counter-intuitive. Can you elaborate?
No. I\'m saying that it can\'t make him run faster than his ability lets him run (which certain drugs like EPO can, which is why they\'re called performance enhancers). There is no question fixing problems (one way or another) can bring an out of form horse into form. But it can\'t (for example) make a 6yo with 40 starts run faster than he has EVER run, even when he was in good form. (See-- Caixa Electronica).
This again goes to a point I have made repeatedly-- you don\'t draw conclusions from one jump-up. You do it when a trainer is getting a lot of them in a short period.
Or an owner.
Jerry - you seem to know more than Vets- have expert knowledge of every aspect of Racing- (now including these Chambers) - What exactly are your education credentials?
A lifetime making a living in this industry. If you think that\'s nothing, try it.
High Roller... your an effin idiot.
You could be right that there was nothing noteworthy. He did run in the money in most of his starts but i suspect his thorograph number improved greatly in the start and he certainly didn\'t look like a 10 time maiden in the last 16th of a mile but you could be right that there is nothing to see...move along.
michael
HR, the name of the game is 1) Picking winners and 2) Making money off those winners. Trainers know the specific condition of their own runner and the day to day health of such steed, but that doesnt have a heck of a lot to do with the ability to make money at the windows.
I didnt realize Jerry or anyone else for that matter, needed to have a degree from vet school in order to have a quality opinion on horses, drugs or anything related to the pursuit of picking winners and cashing bets.
JB I pretty much posted all i know about the chambers and their effects.
I think you have me confused with a later person who posted on that thread about competition; who they ran against should be off grounds to a figure maker.
My \"compelling\" case, if it was that, concerned only Dark Cove, although i responded earlier to Michael\'s post about another Maker winner.
I am familiar with your product and endorse it if asked but for me i am a bit more traditional. The quote \"time only matters if you are taking pills\" or \"if you are in jail\" is more my style.
Looking forward to your Derby analysis and casnnot remember a Derby where so much hinges on the draw. bbb
High Roller. What the f--k is your agenda??? You should go away.
The post I linked this to is the one I was referring to. Whether or not it was a \"weak field\" and other class questions are distinctly separate from how fast DC ran.
BBB, the blood tests and the hyperbaric chamber stuff only would hold some weight if the previous trainer did none of these things. I have to imagine that most trainers in the game today also do blood tests and other high tech stuff, especially at the higher ends of the game.
I would love to see what McPeek did for this horse when he was racing, than we might know for sure what Maker did differently to make this horse break thru to run the best race of his career.
For real comedy (as opposed to comity)-- after going after me here yesterday he went back \"across the street\" (his term on their board) and got slapped over there for going after me too. Points to Raz.
www.makerstables.com which has a tab \"daily racing\" listing his starters chronologically including owners, result, etc. site includes telephone & email address
Where is the oversight from racing officials? Where are the investigative reporters in the industry? These \"cheaters\" have completely ruined the game.I still can\'t understand why veteran trainers who have been in the game forever and have suddenly forgot how to train and win don\'t \"blow the whistle\" and get a law enforcement agency involved. This is race fixing!!!!
Keeneland was completely unplayable with this nonsense. It was like Tampa Bay with Ness. Their handle has dropped significantly recently as a result of these super trainers.It is one thing to develop between 2yo and 3yo seasons but to start running new tops at 5and 6yos without a surface or distance change is absurd!!
Enough points to get him unbanned?
No issues Michael.
Perfect Jeff, evidently has had some physical issues and certainly for his style has encountered some woeful setups, trips and course conditions.
The winner in the other half of the split was a tick or two faster and on raw that seems an easy \"match\" to put a figure, on both. Not that two turn grass heats are easy to \"score\"!
While Perfect Jeff may have improved his TG, and the visually impressive late foot, I would call it a home game and may want to bet against him in his next. He figures ( bad word) a short price in a one x and the race is probably on a weekday tossing him a very bad hand indeed! bbb
Thanks. I have the ability to run a trainers runners in a date range (for exactly this purpose, when I\'m looking to buy or claim from someone I want to know what I\'m dealing with). What I don\'t have is the ability to do it by owner, and Maker\'s site doesn\'t appear to solve that-- won\'t have Ramsey\'s starters with Catalano, etc.
Yeah. That was pretty good.
Thats funny.
I have at least a reasonably education and passion on handicapping horses and have not a f...ing clue on what a \"conditioning move\" is?
Anybody?
bbb
Mako, couldnt agree more. I saw this Rosario/Maker/Ramsey nonsense and i just pulled the plug on Keeneland halfway thru and didnt make too many bets down the stretch.
Same with Tampa, i havent made a wager at Tampa in god knows how long, its been years, Ness has kept me away from that place.
Thx for clarifying that, I see what you are saying since the number of starts on the win% side is far more than the number of starts evaluated for the top-pair-off-x side for the same stat (like last 90 days)
Interestingly, I just located Ness\'s profile on some Saturday sheets as well. His Last 90 days stats show new top of 13% and pair of 21% in 108 starts, similar sample size. And remember, Maker\'s was 40% and 25% for almost the same sample size.
For the laughably ridiculous argument made that Maker is just \"dropping his horses into places they will do well\", it is interesting that Ness\'s stats (like you said, if accurate) suggest that he ACTUALLY IS playing the claiming game well, spotting horses in places they will win despite not having a huge % of new tops/pairs.
HR:
By your logic veterinarians should make the best trainers.
Check John Kimmel\'s stats for the year and get back with us.
Thank you.
Thank you for thinking of me.
Why is it \"laughingly ridiculous\" that Maker is \"dropping horse into spots where they will do well\".
Get a DRF, add the TG, download a condition book, take two, make it five aspirins and call me in the morning.
bbb
No Chuckles or Class no matter how much you beg.
Because when 2 out of every 3 horses you run is running a new top or pairing, you can win any game you want to. Not to mention that they were running a higher % of non-claimers than Ness normally does.
Because it will not make his horses run faster, which is the test for what we\'re talking about-- not just whether they win. And that\'s been said enough times to you now that I have to believe you understand that.